Aluminum prices have fallen by 9.80% since June

Aluminum prices continued to decline from June to July. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the average price of aluminum ingots in the East China market on July 29, 2024 was 19140 yuan/ton, a decrease of 9.80% from the market average price of 21256.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month (June 1).

Reasons for the decline

1. Overseas economic data has hit hard on expectations of interest rate cuts, and the market no longer fully expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in November. At the macro level, international commodity prices have been suppressed, and non-ferrous metal prices have retreated.

2. Weakening overseas data triggers recession expectations, while CPI data gradually raises market expectations of a weakening US economy. The Federal Reserve’s Beige Book shows that businesses expect future growth to slow down and the labor market to remain weak. The production of primary processed aluminum products in the United States has decreased, and the demand for aluminum ingots has maintained a low season performance.

On the domestic front, the economic data for the second quarter was released, with a GDP of 4.7%, which was lower than expected. Domestic downstream inventory replenishment and falsification, and inventory removal is not smooth. As of July 29th, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum in major domestic markets was 795000 tons, unchanged from the inventory of 795000 tons on June 3rd; Compared to July 1st, the inventory was 762000 tons, with a cumulative inventory of 33000 tons.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price of PET water bottle grade has experienced a slight correction this week, and the volatile operation shows a certain downward trend. As of July 26th, the average price of PET water bottle grade is 7178 yuan/ton.

Raw material market: On July 25th, crude oil rebounded narrowly overnight, while polyester raw materials continued to decline during the day, and PET cost support was average. In terms of the international crude oil market, US crude oil inventories have declined for the fourth consecutive week, while gasoline and distillate inventories have also decreased accordingly, and gasoline demand has shown an increasing trend. These factors have collectively led to a rebound in international oil prices from the recent six week low.

On the supply and demand side, Yisheng’s 600000 ton new production capacity has been put into operation, and there is a strong wait-and-see sentiment in the industry. But the current local supply is still tight, which has a supporting effect on the market. The cost and demand support are generally average, and the short-term market price of PET futures and spot is not strong enough. However, considering the tight supply in reality, the downward space for PET is also limited.

The PET analyst from Shengyi Society believes that there may be a narrow adjustment pattern overall.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of July 25th, the average price quoted by epoxy chloropropane enterprises was 7875.00 yuan/ton, which is basically the same as last Friday’s (July 19th) price.

Recently, the market for epichlorohydrin has been operating steadily. This week, the price of raw material liquid chlorine first rose and then fell, the raw material propylene fluctuated narrowly, and the raw material glycerol steadily rose, with strong cost support. The production enterprise mainly delivers contract orders, but the terminal follow-up is relatively slow. The downstream procurement mentality is cautious, and low demand follow-up is the main focus. The focus of negotiations in the epoxy chloropropane market is stable.

Raw material propylene:

According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, on July 24th, the reference price of propylene was 7125.75, a decrease of 0.11% compared to July 1st (7133.25). In the recent stage, the price of raw material propylene has fluctuated narrowly, and the cost is still supported by the epichlorohydrin market.

Market forecast:

Short term cost support still exists, and demand follow-up may be limited. The market is cautious and cautious, and it is expected that the epichlorohydrin market will stabilize and operate in the short term. More attention still needs to be paid to market news guidance.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic polyester staple fiber market continued to weaken today (July 24th), with an average price of 7851 yuan/ton for 1.4D * 38mm, a decrease of 0.84% from the previous trading day. The sustained decline in cost has weakened the support for polyester staple fibers, and today mainstream production factories have generally lowered prices by 100 yuan/ton. Downstream buyers’ willingness to purchase at low prices has increased, and the transaction atmosphere has slightly improved.

The price of raw material PTA fluctuated downward, and as of July 24th, the average price of PTA in the East China region was 5878 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.64% from the beginning of the month. Recently, there have been many restarts of PTA facilities, leading to increased expectations of loose supply. Two sets of PTA plants with a total capacity of 6 million tons in Yisheng Dalian were restarted after a short shutdown. At present, the operating load of domestic industries is around 86%. In the short term, the number of PTA planned maintenance units is limited, and the supply of goods is abundant. It is expected that PTA prices will continue to show a weak trend.

Rumors have it that mainstream polyester staple fiber manufacturers plan to reduce production by 10% by the end of this month, with expectations of supply contraction supporting market sentiment. However, downstream yarn mills are skeptical about reducing production and have a strong wait-and-see attitude. Under the pressure of accumulating inventory, they are cautious about purchasing raw materials for essential needs.

Business analysts believe that with the gradual implementation of the polyester factory production reduction plan, the demand for PTA will decrease, and PTA will remain weak. Due to the accumulation of downstream finished product inventory on the demand side and tight cash flow, the enthusiasm for purchasing raw materials is not high. Although there have been reports of production cuts in short fiber factories, it is expected that prices will continue to decline in the short term due to weak costs and demand.

Price trend

According to the bulk ranking data of Shengyi Society, the domestic PC market has recently stopped falling and stabilized, with spot prices of various brands showing large stability and small fluctuations. As of July 23rd, the mixed benchmark price of Business Society PC was around 16383.33 yuan/ton, a decrease of -0.41% compared to July 1st.

Cause analysis

In terms of raw materials, it can be seen from the above chart that the price of bisphenol A in China has been strengthening recently. The industry load has dropped below 64%, the supply of goods has shrunk, and there is a favorable situation on the supply side. Upstream phenol and acetone have fluctuated, and the support for bisphenol A on the raw material side has limited changes. Downstream stocking is urgently needed for procurement, and the flow of goods has improved. Overall, bisphenol A has increased its support for PC costs.

In terms of supply: Recently, the overall operating rate of PC in China has remained stable with small fluctuations, and the industry average operating rate has decreased by 3% to below 76% compared to mid July. There is not much news about future maintenance and resumption of work. The on-site supply of goods remains abundant, and the news of Hengli Petrochemical’s PC sales in the early stage has affected the mentality of industry players. However, spot prices have fallen to the lowest point of the year, and producers have increased their efforts to raise prices and build a bottom, resulting in a stable and moderate increase in ex factory pricing. The overall market supply side provides stable support for PC prices.

In terms of demand: Recently, PC consumption has taken on a relatively weak pattern, with the main logic leaning towards maintaining production and digesting inventory for essential needs. Downstream enterprises have low loads, reduced stocking enthusiasm, and a narrow decline in consumption. Buyers have some resistance to high priced goods, and the circulation of goods is slow. The demand side has poor support for spot prices.

Future forecast

Recently, the PC market has stopped falling and stabilized. The upstream bisphenol A market has rebounded, and PC cost support has strengthened. The load of domestic polymerization plants has been reduced narrowly, and the changes in supply side factors are limited. The off-season market for demand side consumption is strong, and trading in the market is poor. At present, PC prices have reached their lowest point of the year, and the atmosphere of bottoming out in the market has increased. It is expected that the PC market will continue to consolidate and operate in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of July 22, the reference average price of 85% industrial grade thermal phosphoric acid in China was 6480 yuan/ton, which is 0.62% higher than the reference average price of 6440 yuan/ton on July 15.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of July 22, the reference average price of 85% wet process phosphoric acid in China was 6716 yuan/ton, which is 0.75% higher than the reference average price of 6666 yuan/ton on July 15.

2、 Market analysis

market conditions

This week, the domestic phosphoric acid market prices have slightly increased. As of July 22, the ex factory price of 85% thermal phosphoric acid in Hubei region is around 6300-6600 yuan/ton, and the ex factory price of 85% industrial phosphoric acid in Sichuan region is around 6300-6500 yuan/ton. The domestic market price for 85% wet process phosphoric acid is around 6650-6750 yuan/ton.

In terms of cost

In terms of raw material yellow phosphorus. This week, the yellow phosphorus market has been steadily consolidating and running. Yellow phosphorus enterprise owners place preliminary orders, but downstream enterprises have low purchasing enthusiasm and mainly engage in low-priced transactions. It is expected that the domestic yellow phosphorus market prices will consolidate in the short term.

Raw material phosphate rock market. This week, the market price of phosphate ore has been running steadily, with slight adjustments in some areas. Market inquiries are still acceptable, demand is stable, and downstream purchases are mainly for essential needs. It is expected that domestic phosphate rock prices will remain stable in the short term.

Supply and demand side

At present, the supply of hot process phosphoric acid in the market is stable, while some wet process phosphoric acid manufacturers have undergone equipment maintenance, resulting in a decrease in market supply. However, there is still support on the supply side. At present, the market demand is weak, with downstream demand for replenishment being the main focus, and on-site transactions are relatively low.

3、 Future forecast

Business Society’s phosphate analyst believes that the phosphate market has recently undergone a narrow adjustment. The raw material prices are stable, and the cost support is average. Weakness in supply and demand, resulting in sluggish market transactions. It is expected that the short-term market price of phosphoric acid will continue to experience slight consolidation.

1、 Price trend

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of soda ash has slightly decreased this week. On July 19th, the average market price of soda ash was 1936 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.02% compared to the price of 1956 yuan/ton on July 12th, and a decrease of 3.01% compared to the beginning of the month. On July 19th, the light soda ash commodity index was 100.31, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 46.95% from the cycle’s highest point of 189.10 points (2021-11-07), and an increase of 58.84% from the lowest point of 63.15 points on November 18, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to present).

2、 Market analysis

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the soda ash market has been consolidating and declining this week. On the supply side, the capacity utilization rate has slightly decreased this week, but it is still at a high level. The production of soda ash is high, and the market inventory is sufficient; On the demand side, the terminal market continues to operate weakly, downstream enthusiasm is not high, and on-demand follow-up is the main focus. The market trading atmosphere is weak, and enterprise shipments are limited. Under the supply-demand game, the price of soda ash fluctuates slightly and decreases. As of July 19th, the price of soda ash in East China remained stable, with the mainstream market price for light soda ash ranging from 1900-2150 yuan/ton. The price of soda ash in Central China remained stable, with the mainstream market price for light soda ash ranging from 1750-2000 yuan/ton.

On the demand side: According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, glass prices continue to decline. As of July 19th, the market average price was 17.84 yuan/square meter, a decrease of 3.25% compared to the market average price of 18.44 yuan/square meter on July 12th. Downstream demand for glass is weak, with on-demand procurement leading to a weak glass price trend.

According to the price monitoring of Shengyi Society, in the 29th week of 2024 (7.15-7.19), there were 0 products that rose, 4 products that fell, and 3 products that rose or fell zero in the chlor alkali industry price list. The main commodities experiencing a decline are: calcium carbide (-1.84%), light soda ash (-1.02%), baking soda (-0.90%), and PVC (-0.61%).

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of soda ash is in a stalemate and consolidation, with a high operating rate of spot alkali plants and sufficient market supply. Downstream demand is weak, and multidimensional demand for rigid needs is replenished. Soda ash inventory is generally depleted, and it is expected that soda ash will operate weakly in the later stage, depending on downstream market demand.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price trend of heavy rare earths in the domestic market has significantly declined since July. On July 17th, the rare earth index was 355 points, a decrease of 1 point from yesterday, a decrease of 64.75% from the highest point of 1007 points during the cycle (2022-02-24), and an increase of 31.00% from the lowest point of 271 points on September 13, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to present)

The prices of dysprosium oxide, dysprosium ferroalloy, and dysprosium metal in China have continued to decline. As of the 18th, the price of dysprosium oxide was 1.65 million yuan/ton, a decrease of 10.8%; The price of dysprosium ferroalloy is 1.65 million yuan/ton, a decrease of 9.34% in price; The price of dysprosium metal is 2.25 million yuan/ton, with a price trend decline of 7.98%; The domestic price of terbium series has decreased, with the domestic price of terbium oxide at 5.175 million yuan/ton and the price of metallic terbium at 6.4 million yuan/ton.

In July, the price trend of heavy rare earth metals in the market declined significantly. Due to weak terminal demand, market activity gradually cooled down, and trading remained cautious. The metal market has remained relatively calm, with some metal merchants actively lowering prices to attract buyers. In Jiangxi and Guangxi regions, the operating rates of some separated enterprises have remained low, and the production of heavy rare earths has not changed much; In addition, some magnetic material companies are not actively purchasing, resulting in a significant decline in the price trend of heavy rare earths.

In June 2024, the production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 1.003 million and 1.049 million respectively, an increase of 28.1% and 30.1% year-on-year. From January to June, the production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 4.929 million and 4.944 million respectively, an increase of 30.1% and 32% year-on-year. The production and sales of new energy vehicles continue to rise, providing support for the rare earth market.

After years of governance, the domestic rare earth industry has gradually formed a supply pattern dominated by large groups and relatively concentrated raw materials. With the continuous development of the foreign rare earth industry, China’s rare earth production share has declined from 90% to 70%. Recently, two domestic departments released the first batch of rare earth mining indicators for 2024, but the growth rate has slowed down. In addition, China’s rare earth export volume in June 2024 was 4828.7 tons, a decrease of 22.3% from May’s export volume of 6217 tons. The reduction in exports has to some extent suppressed the domestic rare earth market prices, and the prices of heavy rare earths continue to decline.

Market forecast: Downstream magnetic material companies are not actively ordering in the near future, with quiet inquiries and strong bearish sentiment in the market. It is expected that the market prices of heavy rare earths will continue to decline in the short term.

The plasticizer DOP industry chain is declining

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the DOP industry chain market first rose and then fell in July. This week, the DOP industry chain market has continued to decline, with three consecutive declines since July 15th. As of July 17th, the price of plasticizer DOP was 9700 yuan/ton, a fluctuating decrease of 2.14% compared to the DOP price of 9912.50 yuan/ton on July 12th; On July 17th, the price of isooctanol was 9440 yuan/ton, which fluctuated and fell by 3.08% compared to the price of 9740 yuan/ton on July 12th.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the prices of major products in the DOP industry chain fluctuated and fell in July. As of July 17th, the price of upstream phthalic anhydride has slightly increased by 0.47%, the price of isooctanol has decreased by 2.78%, and the price of plasticizer DOP has decreased by 1.65%.

The price of raw material isooctanol continues to decline

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of July 17th, the price of isooctanol was 9440 yuan/ton, a fluctuating decrease of 3.08% compared to the price of 9740 yuan/ton on July 12th; Compared to the price of 9710 yuan/ton on July 1st at the beginning of the month, the price of isooctanol fluctuated and fell by 2.78%. In July, the isooctanol market first rose and then fell. This week, the price of isooctanol fluctuated and fell. Downstream factories purchased according to demand, and the plasticizer market declined. Enterprises had poor enthusiasm for raw material procurement, and Shandong large factories sold at a discount. The market transaction center shifted downwards, and there was significant downward pressure on isooctanol prices.

The price of raw material phthalic anhydride is stabilizing

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price trend of phthalic anhydride in the domestic phthalic anhydride market has been weak and stable this week. As of July 17th, the price of phthalic anhydride in the phthalic anhydride process was 8087.50 yuan/ton, which remained stable compared to the price of 8087.50 yuan/ton on July 8th; Compared to July 1st, the price of phthalic anhydride fluctuated and rose by 0.47% to 8050 yuan/ton. Domestic neighboring phthalic anhydride is priced at 7900-8100 yuan/ton before leaving the factory, while domestic naphthalene phthalic anhydride is priced at 7450-7550 yuan/ton before leaving the factory. The domestic production rate of phthalic anhydride is around 60%, and the spot supply of phthalic anhydride is stable. The sales situation of phthalic anhydride manufacturers is average, and the price of industrial naphthalene has fluctuated slightly. The naphthalene based phthalic anhydride market has fluctuated and fallen, while the ortho benzene market is temporarily stable. The ortho benzene based phthalic anhydride market is stabilizing. The phthalic anhydride market is weak and stabilizing, and there is still downward pressure on the phthalic anhydride market.

The market for plasticizer DOP has declined

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of July 17th, the price of plasticizer DOP was 9700 yuan/ton, a fluctuating decrease of 2.14% compared to the DOP price of 9912.50 yuan/ton on July 12th; Compared to July 8th, the price of 10000 yuan/ton fluctuated and fell by 3.00%. The market for phthalic anhydride, a raw material for plasticizers, has fluctuated and stabilized, while the price of isooctanol has fluctuated and fallen. The cost of plasticizers has decreased, and the price of plasticizers has fluctuated and fallen. With the arrival of the hot and rainy season, PVC has entered a seasonal off-season in the industry, with both domestic demand off-season and export reduction coexisting. Downstream manufacturers are in the off-season, with low production levels and weak follow-up on actual transactions. The demand for plasticizers is poor, and there is significant downward pressure on plasticizers.

Future expectations

The data analyst of plasticizer products believes that the price of raw material isooctanol has fluctuated and fallen, the price of phthalic anhydride has fluctuated and stabilized, and the cost of plasticizer DOP has decreased; The PVC market is in the off-season, with weak follow-up on actual sales, poor demand for plasticizers, and insufficient support for plasticizer demand. In the future, with the decrease in upstream raw material costs and the off-season of downstream demand, the downward pressure on plasticizers is increasing, and the price of the DOP industry chain for plasticizers is weakly consolidating.

1、 Price trend

Taking the sulfuric acid method gold red stone titanium dioxide with a large volume of goods in the domestic market as an example, according to data monitoring by Business Society, the domestic titanium dioxide market stabilized and remained cautious in the first half of July. On July 1st, the average price of titanium dioxide was 15783.33 yuan/ton, and on July 15th, the average price of titanium dioxide was 15783.33 yuan/ton, which remained unchanged.

2、 Market analysis

In the first half of July, the domestic titanium dioxide market stabilized and remained on the sidelines. In July, the prices of raw materials such as titanium concentrate and sulfuric acid remained consistently firm. Due to the impact of raw materials, the production cost of titanium dioxide is under great pressure. In addition, due to various reasons such as power grid maintenance, some enterprises have chosen to limit or suspend production, while others have delayed their maintenance plans until August. The market supply has been greatly alleviated, and the supply of some brands is limited. The prices of scarce brands in the market have been slightly increased, and the manufacturer’s quotations are mainly stable. As of now, the domestic quotation for sulfuric acid based pyrite type titanium dioxide is mostly between 15300-16200 yuan/ton; The quotation for rutile titanium dioxide is around 14500-15000 yuan/ton. The actual transaction price is negotiable.

In terms of titanium concentrate, the market price of titanium concentrate in the Panxi region has remained strong and upward. Affected by the supply of raw materials, mining enterprises in the Panxi region have insufficient production, the market spot is tight, and the price of titanium ore is running at a high level. Downstream titanium dioxide enterprises have a general market situation and poor market demand, so they are more cautious about trading in titanium concentrate and cautious in market procurement. As of now, the price of 38-42 grade titanium ore without tax is around 1580-1600 yuan/ton, 46 grade 10 titanium concentrate without tax is around 2200-2250 yuan/ton, and 47 grade 20 titanium concentrate is around 2500-2630 yuan/ton. In the short term, the price of Panxi titanium concentrate continues to operate at a high level, and the specific transaction price will be discussed on a case by case basis.

Internationally, according to the China Trade Remedy Information Network, the European Commission issued a notice on July 11, 2024, making preliminary anti-dumping rulings on titanium dioxide originating in China, imposing temporary anti-dumping duties ranging from 14.4% to 39.7% on the products involved. In addition, the current surge in ocean freight prices has weakened the situation of foreign trade orders compared to before, and the pressure on foreign trade exports has increased.

3、 Future forecast

The titanium dioxide analyst from Shengyi Society believes that currently, due to factors such as the initial anti-dumping ruling announcement and high sea freight rates, the situation of foreign trade orders has weakened compared to before. On the domestic front, raw material prices remain firm, and there is significant pressure on the production cost of titanium dioxide. Some enterprises have chosen to limit or stop production. In the short term, the market is still in a wait-and-see stage, with stability as the main focus. However, the sentiment of hoping for a rise is already brewing, and the actual transaction price is subject to negotiation.