According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic BDO market experienced a significant decline in August. From August 1st to 28th, the average price of BDO in China fell from 8928 yuan/ton to 8314 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 6.88% during the period and a year-on-year price drop of 27.61%.

At the beginning of the month, some devices were shut down for maintenance and replacement, resulting in a decline in the overall operating rate of the industry. But the downstream industry load has also decreased, resulting in a reduction in the digestion of raw materials. Manufacturers holding goods are under pressure to ship, and negotiations for discounts on actual orders are underway to promote sales. The market center of gravity is fluctuating downward.

In mid month, the early maintenance equipment was restarted and operated at a reduced load, resulting in weakened supply side support. Although the downstream industry has also seen an increase in load, there is still pressure on supply and demand within the market. Industry players have a bearish attitude towards purchasing and selling, and negotiations are underway to offer discounts on spot orders. As a result, the domestic BDO market continues to decline.

At the end of the month, the focus of the domestic BDO market continued to decline, with an overall increase in industry operating rates and an increase in market supply. However, the overall load of downstream industries is average, and the supply-demand contradiction highlights the bearish mentality of industry players in terms of purchasing and sales, leading to a volatile downward trend in the market.

Supply side: The market supply of goods has increased significantly, and the new production capacity of the second phase of Xinye has been put into operation, with weak support from the supply side. The favorable factors for BDO supply have weakened.

On the cost side, raw material calcium carbide: With the obvious oversupply in the calcium carbide market, the factory price continues to decline, and the enthusiasm of enterprises to start production remains low. However, downstream demand is still in a decreasing stage, and market sentiment is sluggish. In terms of methanol, the domestic methanol market rebounded in August, and the impact of BDO costs was mixed.

On the demand side, there is no significant change in downstream industry load, maintaining the follow-up of essential orders, and severely suppressing spot prices. There is a lack of obvious positive factors on the supply and demand side of the market, and business operators have a bearish attitude towards purchasing and sales. The demand side of BDO is affected by bearish factors.

Future forecast: Currently, market prices are at a low level, industry losses are intensifying, and the supply side’s stable market mentality is the main factor, which may limit the downward space. Business analyst BDO predicts that the domestic BDO market will continue to operate weakly.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of August 27th, the reference average price of the domestic urea market was 2197 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5.67% from the reference average price of 2329 yuan/ton on August 1st.

2、 Market analysis

market conditions

In August, the domestic urea market prices were weak and fell. As of August 27th, the ex factory price of urea in Shandong region is around 2010-2020 yuan/ton, in Hebei region it is around 2020 yuan/ton, in Henan region it is around 2000-2020 yuan/ton, and in Liaoning region it is around 2100 yuan/ton.

According to the weekly K-bar chart from May 27, 2024 to August 19, 2024, it can be seen that the domestic ammonium sulfate cycle is fluctuating. There was a significant decline in August, with the largest drop being -2.83% in the week of August 19th.

Supply and demand situation

In terms of supply, the urea market has ample supply this month. In terms of demand, agricultural demand maintains essential procurement. The operating rate and market of downstream compound fertilizers remain stable, with a focus on on-demand procurement of urea and mostly low-priced transactions. With the gradual increase of supply, the market is dominated by oversupply.

3、 Future forecast

The urea analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the supply of urea in the market has increased, and the recent trend of the urea market is downward. At present, market demand is still high, and downstream buyers are seeking lower prices. The industry is mainly cautious. It is expected that the domestic urea market prices will continue to weaken and consolidate in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of August 26th, the reference average price of 85% industrial grade thermal phosphoric acid in China is 6560 yuan/ton, which is 0.15% higher than the reference average price of 6550 yuan/ton on August 19th.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of August 26th, the reference average price of 85% wet process phosphoric acid in China was 6816 yuan/ton, which is 0.99% higher than the reference average price of 6750 yuan/ton on August 19th.

2、 Market analysis

The domestic phosphoric acid market has risen this week. As of August 26th, the ex factory price of 85% thermal phosphoric acid in Hubei region is around 6500-6700 yuan/ton, and the ex factory price of 85% thermal phosphoric acid in Sichuan region is around 6600 yuan/ton. The domestic market price for 85% wet process phosphoric acid is around 6800-6900 yuan/ton.

Cost end

In terms of raw material yellow phosphorus. This week, the market price of yellow phosphorus has risen, and manufacturers have a strong willingness to raise prices. At present, the supply and demand are relatively balanced, with limited new orders in the market and average market trading. Expected short-term consolidation and operation of yellow phosphorus market.

Raw material phosphate rock market. This week, the market price of phosphate ore has been running steadily, with the main focus on early orders. At present, the market supply and demand are balanced, and there is a shortage of supply in some areas. It is expected that domestic phosphate rock prices will remain stable in the short term.

Supply and demand side

This week, the spot supply of phosphoric acid in the market remains tight, with some wet process phosphoric acid plants shutting down and market inventory decreasing, providing favorable support for the supply side. Downstream demand is still acceptable, procurement enthusiasm has slightly increased, and the market transaction atmosphere has improved.

3、 Future forecast

Business Society’s phosphate analyst believes that the phosphate market has stabilized after a slight increase in recent days. At present, the raw material market is relatively strong and consolidating, and costs still have support. The market supply and demand situation is good. It is expected that the short-term phosphoric acid market will mainly experience price consolidation.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic PTA market remained volatile and weakly adjusted this week (August 19-23). The average spot price of PTA in East China was 5335 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.04% from the beginning of the week. Insufficient cost support, coupled with an expected increase in accumulated inventory, is detrimental to the PTA market.

Looking at the future, two sets of PTA plants with a total capacity of 5 million tons in East China were briefly shut down last weekend and gradually restarted this week. A 1 million ton PTA plant in Southwest China is scheduled to restart on August 24th. The current operating rate of the domestic industry is around 86%, and the later announced PTA plant maintenance plan is limited. The market is concerned about the accelerated accumulation of PTA inventory.

On the cost side, concerns about the crude oil market, economy, and demand continue to exert pressure, but the trend of US oil destocking and the interference expectations of oil producing countries for the continuous decline in oil prices, as well as the impact of geopolitical risk factors, will cause crude oil prices to stabilize and rebound slightly. At present, the operating load of PX continues to be at a high level, but some PX factories have plans to shut down in September. At the same time, the increase in crude oil drive has provided some support for PX prices.

On the demand side, downstream polyester factories currently have no plans to shut down or reduce production of large facilities. The industry’s operating capacity remains around 83%, and there is limited room for improvement in operating capacity. Therefore, the demand for PTA remains weak. The peak season for traditional terminal demand is approaching. If demand rebounds as expected, it can boost confidence in the textile market and drive procurement enthusiasm. At present, most of them maintain a small amount of procurement for essential needs, with only a few downstream feedback showing signs of improvement in order volume. In the future, attention can be paid to the restart of the “Jin Jiu” polyester plant, or there may be a temporary phenomenon of buying at low prices.

Business analysts believe that the strengthening and consolidation of crude oil prices still provides support for PTA costs. However, the supply-demand contradiction of PTA is still prominent, and the peak demand season has not yet been concentrated. The positive driving force is not obvious at the moment, and the market is waiting for a turning point between the peak and off peak seasons. Short term PTA prices will continue to adjust weakly.

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the recent weak consolidation of the local refined petroleum coke market has been the main trend. As of August 22, the price of refined petroleum coke in the Shandong market was 1451.50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.87% from 1464.25 yuan/ton on August 11.

On the cost side: The crude oil market first rose and then fell. In the early stage, the crude oil market rose, partly due to the impact of the tense situation in the Middle East and the gradual easing of economic recession concerns, leading to consecutive increases in international oil prices. On the other hand, US crude oil inventories fell by 3.7 million barrels to 429.32 million barrels, exceeding expectations and leading to an upward trend in the crude oil market. In the later stage, due to the easing of geopolitical situation and the end of the peak oil season in the United States, the crude oil market experienced a significant decline due to various factors.

Supply side: Recently, the shipment of refined petroleum coke has been average, with mainstream coke prices temporarily stable and transitioning, and some coke prices adjusted narrowly. Downstream procurement of petroleum coke is limited, and transactions are average. Recently, downstream enterprises of petroleum coke have been cautious in receiving goods and mainly purchase on demand, putting pressure on the market for imported petroleum coke shipments.

On the demand side: Currently, the overall trading of the silicon metal market is still inactive, and downstream metallurgical plants and polycrystalline silicon plants have reduced production, resulting in a weak intention to purchase raw materials. There is a strong wait-and-see sentiment in the market, and industry players’ bearish sentiment towards the market remains unchanged. Downstream organic silicon and powder mills have also shown caution in their procurement of metal silicon raw materials, mainly in the form of small orders for essential needs. At present, the demand for purchasing petroleum coke from metallic silicon is average, and the support for the petroleum coke market is average.

Recently, the market for medium sulfur calcined coke has remained stable, while the upstream petroleum coke market is weak. Currently, most companies are stabilizing their prices and shipping, while downstream companies are mainly observing and waiting.

In the off-season of aluminum processing in August, the inventory data of electrolytic aluminum shows good domestic supply and demand. As of August 22, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum in mainstream areas was 790000 tons, compared to the inventory of 803000 tons on August 1 at the beginning of the month, with 13000 tons sold out. At the same time, the expectation of the traditional peak season of “Golden September and Silver October” has further boosted market expectations. Downstream aluminum carbon enterprises maintain essential procurement of petroleum coke.

Market forecast: Currently, the overall trading in the petroleum coke market is average, and downstream enterprises are cautious in their procurement, with a focus on receiving goods on demand; In addition, imported petroleum coke has recently been concentrated at the port, and the overall petroleum coke resources are abundant. It is expected that the recent consolidation of the petroleum coke market will be the main trend.

Market Overview

The market atmosphere for melamine this week is average, and overall, the fundamentals are weak. As of August 20th, the benchmark price of melamine in Shengyi Society was 6750.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of -1.10% compared to the beginning of this month (6825.00 yuan/ton). Manufacturers mainly focus on executing advance orders, with weak willingness to adjust prices. In the short term, there is a lack of guidance in the market, and the market situation appears to be stagnant. Next week, due to the increase in production enterprises and the lack of expected improvement in downstream demand, prices may continue to remain weak.

Supply side

Since August, the raw material urea market has been lukewarm, and the recent market performance is still dominated by a one week market cycle. When the demand side weakens, the maintenance plans of large factories have temporarily put the supply side at a low level, and both supply and demand have weakened, maintaining a narrow adjustment of the urea market. As of August 20th, the benchmark price of urea in Shengyi Society was 2263.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of -2.50% compared to the beginning of this month (2321.00 yuan/ton).

In terms of demand

Recently, the melamine market has cooled down, and demand has been moderately followed up. It is reported that some sheet metal factories have recently reduced their operating load, and considering that the supply of melamine will increase in the later maintenance and restoration of multiple factories, downstream manufacturers and traders have reduced their demand for melamine procurement.

In July, imported 10.642 tons of melamine, a month on month decrease of 38.99%, with a total import price of 442930 RMB; Exported 34400 tons, a month on month decrease of 36.76%, with a total export price of 210714605 RMB.

Overall, the positive news for the melamine market is limited, and the market may remain stagnant. It is expected that the demand for melamine in the short term will improve, and the price range may be between 6200-6500 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to new news changes such as factory start-up adjustments and demand follow-up.

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the domestic maleic anhydride market overall rose in mid August. As of August 21, the average market price of n-butane oxidation maleic anhydride remained at 6790 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.04% from 6720 yuan/ton on August 11.

Supply side: Yizheng Chemical Fiber and HSBC Petrochemical are expected to resume production in late August, Qingdao Refining and Chemical has started trial operation, and Yantai Wanhua plans to shut down from August 26th; Recently, the prices of the main factories producing maleic anhydride have remained stable, with price fluctuations hovering around 50 yuan/ton. As of August 21st, the ex factory price of solid anhydride in Shandong region is around 6600 yuan/ton, and the ex factory price of liquid anhydride is around 5950 yuan/ton.

Upstream: Recently, the international crude oil market has been fluctuating downwards, with n-butane maintaining a stable trend. As of August 21st, the price in Shandong is around 5250 yuan/ton.

Downstream: Recently, the prices of unsaturated resin raw materials have fallen sharply, and cost support is weak. Currently, it is still in the off-season of consumption, and downstream production continues to be sluggish. Limited demand procurement has limited support for unsaturated resin, and the overall market for unsaturated resin remains stable.

Business Society’s maleic anhydride product analyst believes that in recent times, the main factories for maleic anhydride have mainly maintained stable prices, with cautious market operations and limited transactions; The downstream unsaturated resin market remains stable, with limited procurement of maleic anhydride; At present, there is little change in supply and demand, and there is no significant increase in supply. It is expected that the maleic anhydride market will mainly consolidate in the near future.

On August 20th, the average price of anhydrous hydrogen fluoride in the domestic market was 10900 yuan/ton, unchanged from August 19th. The hydrofluoric acid market is running weakly, entering the off-season, downstream demand continues to weaken, the purchasing atmosphere is not positive, and transaction volume is weak. It is expected that the hydrofluoric acid market will continue to be weak in the short term, and downstream suppliers will replenish as needed and purchase at lower prices. The expected price fluctuation is around 0-100 yuan/ton. Specific changes in raw material prices need to be observed, and detailed discussions should be conducted on actual orders.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic polyester staple fiber market has fluctuated slightly downward since August. As of August 19th, the average price of 1.4D * 38mm in mainstream factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was 7618 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.72% from the beginning of the month. Polyester staple fiber factories have reduced production to maintain prices, but cost adjustments have weakened, coupled with insufficient demand support, which has dragged down the prices of polyester staple fibers.

In the future, the trend of US oil destocking in the crude oil market is not as expected, and the support for the oil market is limited. We still need to be vigilant about changes in the geopolitical situation, and oil prices may remain stable. As of August 16th, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $76.65 per barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was $79.68 per barrel. Recently, the overall supply capacity of PX in Asia has been at a high level, coupled with the continued shutdown plans of some PTA plants in China, resulting in a consolidation of PX prices at a low level.

The domestic PTA market has fluctuated and adjusted weakly, with the average spot price of PTA in East China at 5446 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6.58% from the beginning of the month. In terms of supply, the current operating rate of the PTA industry in China is around 86%, maintaining a high level, and the overall supply of goods is still abundant.

Terminal demand is still in the off-season, and finished product inventory is still mainly accumulated. Downstream enterprises are cautious about raw material procurement, mainly focusing on sporadic and essential purchases. The improvement in autumn and winter orders is limited, and the overall performance is poor. Currently, the operating rate in Jiangsu and Zhejiang remains around 63%. With the gradual reduction of high temperature weather and the increase in downstream production, the demand for polyester staple fibers may increase slightly.

Business analysts believe that although polyester staple fiber factories continue to reduce production, there is a lack of highlights in the fundamentals, with cost declines and weak demand. It is expected that polyester staple fiber prices will continue to decline.

According to the monitoring of the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price trend of anhydrous hydrofluoric acid in China has declined this week. As of August 16th, the benchmark price of hydrofluoric acid in Shengyi Society was 10900 yuan/ton, a decrease of -3.11% compared to the beginning of this month (11250 yuan/ton).

Supply side: Recently, due to the continuous rise in raw material sulfuric acid prices, the production costs of enterprises have been under pressure, and the market trend of hydrogen fluoride has declined. The mainstream price for hydrofluoric acid in various regions of China is 10500-11500 yuan/ton, and some enterprises’ equipment is still parked and waiting for the market. The release of hydrofluoric acid production is limited, and the industry’s profits are low, resulting in increased losses.

Cost side: The domestic fluorite prices have remained weak and stable this week, with some manufacturers experiencing price declines. As of August 16th, the benchmark price of fluorite in Shengyi Society was 3462.50 yuan/ton, a decrease of -3.59% compared to the beginning of this month (3591.25 yuan/ton). The domestic fluorite industry is in a game situation, and overall, the operating rate of enterprises has not changed much. The main reason is that upstream mining is tight, backward mines will continue to be eliminated, and new mines will be added. Mineral investigation work is still difficult. In addition, recent national departments need to rectify fluorite mines, and fluorite mining enterprises are facing increasingly strict safety and environmental protection requirements. Some mines have conducted safety hazard inspections, making it more difficult for fluorite mines to operate. The shortage of raw materials has limited the operation of fluorite enterprises, and the supply of fluorite sources is still tight. The price trend is declining.

On the demand side: During the off-season of demand, the refrigerant market continues to be in a stalemate due to poor demand transmission. After entering the off-season of production, the market production demand weakens. In addition, the recent rainy weather has led to poor inventory of refrigerant companies, and they are not actively purchasing upstream products. The market for some refrigerant products has declined, and as a result, the market for hydrofluoric acid is weak and difficult to change.

Market forecast: Upstream raw material fluorite supply remains tight; The price of sulfuric acid continues to rise, and the production cost pressure of hydrofluoric acid is significant. The downstream refrigerant industry has entered the off-season with weak demand, which has weakened the enthusiasm for purchasing hydrofluoric acid. It is expected that the price of hydrofluoric acid will continue to weaken in the later period.