Trade name: TDI

Latest price (March 9): 19500 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: the average price of TDI market in East China today is the same as that of the previous working day, and the domestic TDI market will wait and see. There is little change in the start-up of TDI plants in China, the spot market is tight, and the export of terminal products is affected by the positive impact. The price support mentality of cargo holders is the main, the downstream gas buying is general, the market entry just needs to be followed up, and the TDI Market offer is temporarily stable. At present, the quotation range of dealers in East China is about 19000-19300 yuan / ton for domestic goods and about 19500 yuan / ton for Shanghai goods.

Future forecast: the TDI market will be sorted and operated at a high level in the later stage, with specific attention to market supply and downstream follow-up.

1、 Trend analysis

As shown in the figure above, copper prices fell slightly on the 8th, with the spot price of 72970 yuan / ton, down 2.73% from the previous day and up 4.35% from the beginning of the year.

U.S. stocks fell heavily, and the high level of copper fell overnight, closing down 2.69%. Although the negotiations between Russia and Ukraine have no substantive results, the logistics and transportation have been eased, the domestic demand is weak, and the imported copper has suffered a significant loss. In terms of monetary policy, it may be a foregone conclusion that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates by 25 basis points in March. Copper prices continued to strengthen, curbing downstream consumption, and the trend of domestic inventory base continued. It is expected that the overall short-term copper price will be weak and dominated by operation.

According to the data monitoring of the business agency, the average price of EVA in the domestic market was 19833.33 yuan / ton on March 4 and 20666.67 yuan / ton on March 7, with an increase of 4.20% and 15.89% compared with February 1.

On the 7th, the domestic EVA market continued to rise. The ex factory price of petrochemicals rose. With the resumption of terminal enterprises, the market demand increased. In addition, the demand for photovoltaic materials is strong, the market spot is limited, and the price is firm and rising. It is expected that the EVA market price may still rise in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business society, the price of aniline stabilized after falling at the beginning of the week. On February 25, the price in Shandong was 13000-13200 yuan / ton; The price of aniline in Nanjing is 13800 yuan / ton; On March 4, the price in Shandong was 12500-12700 yuan / ton; The price of aniline in Nanjing was 12800 yuan / ton, down 5% from last week and up 11.11% from the same period last year.

2、 Analysis and comment

In terms of cost, pure benzene: the demand for pure benzene is insufficient due to the loss of profits of main downstream products and the reduction of load and shutdown of some units; Shandong local refining enterprises generally take goods; Superimposed on the weak price of styrene, pure benzene weakened slightly at the beginning of the week. In the second half of the week, affected by the escalation of geopolitical tensions, crude oil soared and the external market rose, driving the domestic pure benzene market to rise. On Friday (March 4), the price of pure benzene was 8400-8550 yuan / ton (the average price was 8460 yuan / ton), and the average price increased by 520 yuan / ton or 6.55% compared with last week; Compared with the same period last year, it increased by 26.84%.

Nitric acid: the price of nitric acid stabilized after rising this week. On Friday (March 4), the domestic production price of nitric acid was 2216.67 yuan / ton, up 0.76% from last week and 11.77% from the same period last year. Nitric acid is delivered normally this week, and the delivery is better.

At the beginning of the week, the cost side maintained a weak trend, superimposed on the weak downstream demand for aniline, the mentality of the industry turned to shipment, and the price fell. In the second half of the week, affected by crude oil, the price of pure benzene rebounded broadly and the cost support rose strongly. However, the downstream profit space of aniline is insufficient, the follow-up of aniline is weak, the delivery of aniline is general, the factory inventory is accumulated, and the price rise is blocked. In terms of supply, Jinling and Jinmao units stopped this week, Tianji operated at half load, and the supply in the North decreased more; Most contracts are executed in East China, and the spot delivery is limited.

3、 Future expectations

In terms of cost and pure benzene, at present, pure benzene is mainly driven by cost, and the demand side is insufficient. If crude oil continues to rise, pure benzene may rise; If crude oil falls, pure benzene may fall rapidly. In terms of nitric acid, the supporting kinetic energy of raw liquid ammonia is insufficient, and the price of nitric acid is expected to continue to be dominated by weak operation.

The spot supply of aniline is relatively small, the cost support is OK, but the downstream demand is weak. Overall, aniline continues to consolidate in the short term. Continue to pay attention to the trend of raw materials, downstream demand and the impact of the dynamics of aniline plant on the price of aniline.

Trade name: acetic acid

Latest price (March 3): 4252 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: today’s acetic acid price is temporarily stable, the average market price in East China is flat compared with yesterday, and the market situation stops falling and stabilizes. At present, the operating rate of acetic acid industry is high, the market supply is sufficient, the downstream demand is gradually restored, the market trading is weak, and the shipment of enterprises is mainly on the sidelines.

Future forecast: the short-term acetic acid market will be sorted and operated, and the specific attention will be paid to the market supply.

1、 Trend analysis

As shown in the figure above, copper prices rose slightly on the 2nd, with the spot price of 71541.67 yuan / ton, up 0.97% from the previous day and 7.3% from the beginning of the year.

The surge in oil prices boosted the market, with copper closing up 2.24% overnight; The interference of non-ferrous metal supply continues to intensify, and market concerns promote the collective popularity of non-ferrous metals, superimposing the domestic economy to maintain elasticity. The TC of copper concentrate is rising steadily and the supply at the mine end is abundant. The output of electrolytic copper decreased due to maintenance in January and gradually repaired in February. High profits and less production restrictions will promote the output of electrolytic copper to continue to rise. Copper supply and demand showed a recovery trend as a whole. The change of domestic inventory was in line with the seasonal law, and the fundamental contradiction was not prominent. The recent macroeconomic and political situation may become the leading factor affecting copper. Copper prices are expected to remain broadly volatile as a whole.

Trade name: acetic acid

Latest price (March 1): 4292 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: the price of acetic acid continued to decline today. The average market price in East China decreased by 1.38% in a single day. The price of acetic acid in domestic areas decreased again, with a decline range of about 50-100 yuan / ton, and the weakness of the market slowed down. The operating rate of acetic acid industry is on the high side, the enterprise inventory is accumulated, the market supply is sufficient, the downstream demand is weak, the atmosphere of new order transaction in the market is light, and the acetic acid enterprises maintain the reduction of shipment quotation.

Future forecast: the short-term acetic acid market is weak, and the specific attention is paid to the market supply.

Trade name: acetic acid

Latest price (February 28): 4352 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: today, the price of acetic acid decreased weakly, the average market price in East China decreased by 1.58% in a single day, and the price of acetic acid in domestic areas decreased synchronously, with a decline range of about 100-200 yuan / ton. The market situation was obviously weak. At present, the operating rate of acetic acid is high, the operation of enterprises is stable, the market supply is sufficient, the downstream demand continues to be weak, mainly digesting the early orders, the atmosphere of new orders in the market is light, the inventory of acetic acid enterprises is accumulated, the situation of oversupply is difficult to improve in a short time, and the competitive shipping quotation of acetic acid enterprises is reduced.

Future forecast: the short-term acetic acid market is weak, and the specific attention is paid to the market supply.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of business agency, on February 25, the average price of P value of oil-based ethylene glycol was 5133.33 yuan / ton, down 41.67 yuan / ton compared with the previous statistical cycle.

According to incomplete statistics, between February 24 and March 2, the total expected arrival of major terminals in East China is about 182500 tons, down from the previous statistical cycle.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

In terms of units: Zhejiang Petrochemical is expected to reduce production by 15 ~ 20% next month, with a total of about 30000 tons.

Ethylene glycol rose and fell this month, and the profit margin remained low. Ethylene glycol market this month is mainly affected by crude oil disturbance. Affected by the tense situation in Russia and Ukraine, the upstream crude oil market is worried that the outbreak of war in Europe may disrupt the global energy supply. Brent and US WTI oil prices once hit an intraday high of more than US $100 / barrel, with strong cost support. However, the ethylene glycol market is still dragged down by oversupply, the port inventory is still high, and the oversupply situation will continue in March. Today afternoon, the center of gravity of ethylene glycol outer plate fell, and the recent cargo negotiation was $665 / ton. From the demand side, it will take time for the downstream to improve. At present, the terminal digestion is not strong and the improvement is limited in a short time.

3、 Forecast: low and wide range shocks, and attention should be paid to the improvement of demand and the impact on the crude oil market.

Data monitoring shows that on February 24, the mainstream price of polyacrylamide (CPAM, cation, molecular weight 12 million, 10-30 ionic degree) in China’s domestic market reported about 17157.14 yuan / ton, slightly increased by 0.17% compared with the range on the 16th, and the price has been stable so far.

Key point analysis: at present, the production of enterprises has entered a normal state and the market inventory is sufficient; The downstream demand is general and the transaction is weak; The inventory situation of the enterprise is different, and the price is adjusted slightly according to the inventory situation. The upstream raw material acrylonitrile has been steadily and slightly increased by about 50 or 100 yuan / ton this week. At present, the average price in the domestic market is about 11150 yuan / ton; On the 24th, the price of raw acrylic acid was slightly reduced by less than 100 yuan / ton. Recently, the market price of raw acrylic acid has increased, the cost support has improved, the plant operating load is not high, the downstream is mainly purchased on demand, and the market purchase and sales are orderly.

Future forecast: since this week, the price of raw materials has decreased slightly, with sufficient spot inventory in the superimposed market, and the downstream demand has not increased on a large scale. It is expected that the mainstream market in the future will be stable and slightly weak.