According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the PP market in January was mainly consolidated, with some brand products experiencing narrow price reductions. As of January 31st, the mainstream offer price for wire drawing by domestic producers and traders is around 7558.33 yuan/ton, a decrease of -1.16% compared to the price level at the beginning of January.

Price trend

In terms of raw materials:

Due to the strengthening of the US dollar at the end of December last year and the contraction of consumption, oil prices weakened in early January. Entering 2025, concerns about crude oil supply have risen due to the extension of the OPEC+production reduction agreement until the end of the first quarter and the obstruction of some ship exports. In addition, the recent low temperature weather in Europe and America has boosted demand, and under various stimuli, international crude oil prices have fluctuated and risen. Overall, the upstream support of PP is strengthening. At the beginning of the month, the price of propylene increased due to the increase in midstream inventory and high external prices. However, after the price rose to a high level, trading cooled down, resulting in a significant decline in propylene in late January. The overall consolidation of propane has been weak throughout the month. Although it received positive news from crude oil in the second half of the month, transmission still needs time, and the market is still in a weak consolidation trend. Overall, the PP raw material market fluctuated before the Spring Festival in January, and the cost value at the end of the month remained positive guidance.

Supply side:

Domestic PP enterprises have resumed work and production, resulting in an increase in pre holiday load levels. During the month, the load of enterprises such as Daxie Petrochemical, Zhonghan Petrochemical, and Qilu Petrochemical has gradually returned. Overall, the industry’s overall load has increased by about 5% to 83%. The domestic weekly average production is over 730000 tons, and the PP shipment volume is flat. At the same time, newly put into operation devices are being produced one after another, and the market supply is abundant. Overall, the supply side provides moderate support for PP spot prices.

In terms of demand:

Before the holiday, the demand for PP tends to be weak and rigid. Before and after the Spring Festival holiday, the consumption level of woven bags such as fertilizers, cement, and rice decreased, and the consumption level of plastic weaving also declined. The stocking intensity of terminal enterprises is average, and their willingness to continue purchasing before the holiday is low. Their operations tend to be short-term and buy as you go. As companies gradually enter the holiday season, the workload decreases. In addition, with the trend of year-end fund withdrawal in the market, overall, the demand side has shown weak performance.

Future forecast

The domestic PP market price consolidation was weak before the Spring Festival in January. Fundamentally speaking, the overall performance of upstream raw materials in supporting PP is still acceptable. The industry supply has increased. According to consumer feedback, during the Spring Festival period, businesses gradually withdrew from the market and there was a lack of purchasing power in the market. In the short term, it is expected that PP prices will remain relatively stable in early February.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of January 24th, the reference average price of the domestic urea market was 1735 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.52% from the reference average price of 1798 yuan/ton on January 1st.

2、 Market analysis

This month, the domestic urea market price first fell and then rose. In the first half of this month, domestic urea prices fell weakly. The supply of urea in the market is relatively loose, and the market inventory has increased. Downstream demand is weak, and downstream consumers tend to be cautious and cautious. The market trading is light, with many low-priced transactions. In mid to late this month, the domestic urea market prices fluctuated and rose. The demand for pre holiday market replenishment has increased, market transaction volume has increased, and enterprise quotations have been raised.

market conditions

As of January 24th, the ex factory price of urea in Shandong region is around 1640-1685 yuan/ton, in Hebei region it is around 1750 yuan/ton, in Henan region it is around 1670 yuan/ton, and in Liaoning region it is around 1770 yuan/ton.

Supply and demand situation

On the supply side, the urea market has had loose supply this month. Partial regions have resumed production, resulting in an increase in daily urea production in China. On the demand side, in the first half of this month, due to the continuous decline in prices and cautious downstream procurement, there was not much market trading and a light trading atmosphere. In the second half of this month, downstream procurement enthusiasm increased and demand increased.

3、 Future forecast

Business Society’s urea analyst believes that the urea market trend has been rising recently. As the Spring Festival approaches, downstream stocking demand remains high, coupled with the recent rise in urea futures prices. Under favorable factors, it is expected that the domestic urea market prices will remain stable with a moderate upward trend in the short term.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of January 24th, the price of lead 1 # was 16750 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.21% from the lead price of 16785 yuan/ton on January 20th.

This week’s market analysis

As the Spring Festival holiday approaches this week, trading in the spot lead market has turned weak. Recently, there has been a significant reduction in transportation vehicles, leading to an increase in freight rates and constraining spot trading. At the same time, downstream enterprises are about to take a holiday, and with the rise in lead prices, some companies’ plans to stock up on dips before the holiday have been disrupted.

Native end

Part of the electrolytic lead plants provide accompanying quotes for delivery, with a slight reduction in the markup. The strong trend of lead prices this week has led to companies that originally planned to stock up adopting a wait-and-see attitude or directly canceling their inventory plans.

Regeneration end

The supply and demand in the spot market are both showing a weak trend. Most battery manufacturers have completed pre holiday stocking, resulting in a sluggish transaction of recycled lead. The price of lead in Shanghai remains relatively strong and volatile, and the supply of goods for holders is tight, resulting in a significant decrease in quotes compared to last week.

Demand side

Major lead-acid battery companies have basically entered a holiday period, and the procurement of raw materials and shipment of batteries have also gradually ended. Considering that logistics vehicles will be shut down no later than around January 23rd, downstream enterprises may use this time window to carry out the final nearby stocking work. The demand for lead consumption is showing further weakness.

comprehensive analysis

At the beginning of the week, as the holiday approached, the number of logistics vehicles gradually decreased. As a result, most downstream enterprises have suspended their procurement activities for lead ingots. Next week, coinciding with the arrival of the Chinese Lunar New Year, the logistics system will be completely shut down. In this context, spot trading of lead ingots will be suspended.

Aluminum prices strengthen in January

Aluminum prices strengthened in January. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of January 23, 2025, the average price of aluminum ingots in the East China market in China was 20213.33 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.17% from the market average price of 19783.33 yuan/ton on January 1, and a decrease of 0.62% from yesterday.

Reasons for the increase in aluminum prices in January:

Lun Aluminum Drive:

1. The EU may implement a ban on Russian aluminum, and the news that Russian aluminum will once again face Western sanctions has raised expectations of increased demand for LME spot goods.

2. The Russia-Ukraine conflict, the information that may affect the natural gas facilities, together with the decline of natural gas inventory in Europe in the severe winter, has significantly promoted the rise of natural gas prices in Europe. The rise in energy prices has pushed up the cost of aluminum ingots in Europe. Supporting the price of London aluminum

The Trump Effect:

On a macro level, Trump’s inauguration within this month has intensified uncertainty in policy interpretation. The domestic tax cuts and external tax increases advocated by Trump have pushed up the prices of imported goods and increased market concerns about re inflation.

In the trend of domestic aluminum ingot destocking:

Aluminum ingot inventory maintains a trend of depletion, and the rate of depletion far exceeds expectations. According to data, as of January 23, the social inventory of aluminum ingots in mainstream areas of China was 459000 tons, an increase of 10000 tons from 469000 tons on January 2.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of January 17th, the price of lead 1 # was 16780 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.51% compared to the lead price of 16695 yuan/ton on January 13th.

This week’s market analysis

This week, due to downstream companies stocking up before the holiday as usual, the lead market has been actively trading in the early stage. Waiting for stocking to be completed, due to the approaching traditional Spring Festival, the market is in a weak supply-demand state.

Native end

The inventory of primary lead refineries has decreased, and there is a shortage of warehouse receipts, with refinery pickup and shipment being the main focus.

Regeneration end

Waste batteries are prone to rise but difficult to fall, and the profits from recycling and smelting are relatively low, resulting in a reluctance to sell. During the week, some refineries resumed production one after another, and the market’s spot supply increased. Manufacturers actively shipped, and some lowered their premiums.

Demand side

Downstream enterprises purchase on demand, and low-priced sources of electrolytic lead are in high demand, resulting in a high level of activity in the spot market. As the Spring Festival holiday approaches, most downstream enterprises have completed pre holiday stocking, while a small number of enterprises continue to replenish their inventory, resulting in a gradual decline in spot trading.

comprehensive analysis

During the two weeks leading up to the Spring Festival, most companies are on vacation and logistics will soon be suspended. Downstream enterprises stock up according to convention. As the Spring Festival approaches and the number of corporate holidays increases, it is expected that the lead market trading will further weaken.

1、 Market price trend

From the recent market prices, the price of melamine has indeed shown some stability and has shown a slight upward trend during certain periods. For example, according to the latest data from Shengyi Society, although the prices this week (based on January 21st as the reference date) have decreased compared to the beginning of the month, the daily increase is shown as 0.04%, indicating that there is a small upward space for prices on a specific date. This small fluctuation may be influenced by multiple factors, including raw material costs and market demand.

2、 Analysis of Supply and Demand Relationship

1. Supply side: The production capacity of melamine is relatively stable, and production enterprises in the industry usually adjust their production scale based on market demand and raw material costs. In a relatively stable supply situation, market prices are more likely to remain stable.

2. Demand side: The demand for melamine in downstream industries such as sheet metal and coatings is an important factor affecting market prices. With the recovery of the economy and the improvement of people’s living standards, the demand for melamine in these industries may gradually increase, thereby driving up market prices.

3、 Raw material cost

1. Raw material cost: The price fluctuation of raw material urea directly affects the production cost of melamine. When the price of urea rises, the production cost of melamine will also increase accordingly, which may drive up market prices. On the contrary, a decrease in urea prices may lower the production cost of melamine and exert some downward pressure on market prices. As of January 21st, the benchmark price of urea in Shengyi Society was 1705.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of -5.19% compared to the beginning of this month (1798.33 yuan/ton).

4、 Market outlook

Looking ahead, the melamine market is expected to continue to maintain a stable but rising trend. On the one hand, with the recovery of the economy and the increase in demand from downstream industries, the market demand for melamine is expected to further increase; On the other hand, integration and technological upgrading within the industry will help improve production efficiency and product quality, thereby enhancing market competitiveness. However, the fluctuation of market prices is still influenced by various factors, including raw material costs, policy regulation, international trade situation, etc. Therefore, enterprises need to closely monitor market dynamics and policy changes, and develop reasonable business strategies to cope with potential market risks.

In summary, the melamine market has indeed shown a stable but upward trend. However, this trend is not static, but is influenced and constrained by various factors. Enterprises need to closely monitor market dynamics and policy changes to address potential market risks and seize development opportunities.

According to the analysis of the Business Society’s market monitoring system, on January 21st, the reference price for the domestic silicon metal # 441 market was 11220 yuan/ton. Compared with January 1st (the market price for silicon metal # 441 was 11690 yuan/ton), the price decreased by 470 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.02%.

From the market monitoring system of Shengyi Society, it can be seen that from January to present (1.1-1.21), the overall domestic spot market for silicon metal has shown a weak downward trend. The focus of the spot market for metal silicon in many regions of China is shifting downwards, including the market prices of metal silicon brands # 553, # 552, # 441, # 421, 3303, and other foreign silicon. As of January 21, the market price reference for oxygen # 553 in East China is around 10900-11000 yuan/ton, 441 # is around 11200-11400 yuan/ton, 521 # is around 11300-11600 yuan/ton, and 421 # is around 11500-11800 yuan/ton.

Analysis of Market Factors

Supply side: Currently, the overall operating rate of the domestic silicon metal market is at a low level, and there are few silicon metal factories in production in Yunnan and Sichuan regions. The market mentality is not good. In January, silicon metal factories continued to reduce production, and although inventory pressure was tight and accumulated slightly, demand conversion was not timely. The overall performance of the silicon metal supply side is still weak, providing limited support to the market.

On the demand side: The downstream market demand for silicon metal is cautious, and there are some essential orders in Xinjiang. The overall shipment of market inventory is slow, and there is insufficient market support from the demand side.

Market analysis in the future

At present, the pace of the Spring Festival is getting closer and closer. The fluctuation of the metal silicon market is not significant, and the market is mainly stabilizing and operating. The metal silicon data analyst of Business Society believes that in the short term, the domestic metal silicon spot market is mainly stable and operating, and specific changes in supply and demand information need to be paid more attention to.

The average price of domestic magnesium ingots in 2024 was 20600 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year and 16266 yuan/ton at the end of the year, with an annual decline of 21.04%. The highest point of the year was 20633 yuan/ton on January 19th, and the lowest point of the year was 16000 yuan/ton at the end of December, with an average annual price of 18344 yuan/ton. The trend of the magnesium ingot market in 2024 can be divided into three stages: a significant downward adjustment at the beginning of the year, a slight upward rebound in stable prices in the middle of the year, and a continued downward dip at the end of the year.

K-bar chart of commodity prices, using the concept of price trend K-line, in the form of a bar chart, reflects the weekly or monthly price changes. Investors can make buying and selling investments based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-pillar represents the range of rise and fall. From the above chart, it can be seen that the magnesium ingot market rose for three months and fell for nine months in 2024. The largest monthly increase occurred in April, with a rise of 3.7%. The largest monthly decline occurred in March, with a drop of 6.88%.

The comparison chart of the annual trend of magnesium ingots from 2022 to 2024 shows that the market price of magnesium ingots is currently at its lowest level in recent years.

Analysis of Quarterly Price Trends in 2024:

first quarter

Starting from January 2024, magnesium prices have shown slight fluctuations. The manufacturer’s production is stable and the market supply is sufficient, but due to the approaching Spring Festival and the tense situation in the Red Sea, some export orders have been delayed, resulting in weakened demand and price reductions. Subsequently, the losses in the Lantan industry intensified, and some magnesium factories faced cost inversion pressure. However, downstream users stocking up in large quantities has reduced the inventory pressure of magnesium plants, and prices have slightly increased at one point. After the Spring Festival, with the completion of most downstream stocking, magnesium prices fell again, with this decline being the largest annual drop, and then magnesium prices stabilized. The mainstream price of magnesium metal in Fugu area has dropped to 17300-17500 yuan/ton, and market demand still needs to be boosted.

Second quarter

In mid March, magnesium prices rose for the first time after the Spring Festival, and market confidence slightly recovered. However, insufficient demand led to a further decline in magnesium prices, followed by a bottoming out and rebound. Due to severe losses, some manufacturers in Shaanxi, Inner Mongolia and other places have stopped production, resulting in reduced market supply and stimulating downstream demand. Magnesium prices have remained stable and risen to 18600-18800 yuan/ton. At the end of April, downstream users finished stocking up, demand weakened, and magnesium prices fell back to 18000-18100 yuan/ton. After the May Day holiday, downstream low-priced restocking led to a slight increase in magnesium prices. Subsequently, raw material prices rose, but downstream demand was limited, resulting in slight fluctuations in magnesium prices. At the end of May, the price of silicon iron raw materials rose significantly, driving up the price of magnesium.

Third quarter

Since June, downstream demand has been insufficient, raw material prices have decreased, shipping costs have risen, and external orders have decreased, resulting in a downward pressure on magnesium prices. Although there was an increase in sales volume during the second half of the year due to low prices and price recovery, there was weak demand follow-up, resulting in a further decline in magnesium prices. In early July, magnesium prices slightly increased. At the end of the month, due to some manufacturers resuming production and the market being cautious, transactions were limited, and magnesium prices fell again. The mainstream price in Fugu area dropped to 17600-17700 yuan/ton. From late July to early August, some manufacturers stopped production for maintenance, downstream procurement increased, and magnesium prices rose temporarily to 17900-18000 yuan/ton due to cost support. In mid August, downstream fear of high sentiment intensified, market inquiries decreased, transactions were light, and magnesium prices quickly fell to 17500-17600 yuan/ton.

Fourth quarter

At the end of August and the beginning of September, magnesium prices rose rapidly. In order to maintain market stability, manufacturers raised their prices uniformly, pushing up mainstream prices in the Fugu area. However, downstream demand is weak, shipping costs have been lowered, foreign procurement is scattered, and manufacturers’ shipments are not smooth. The actual transaction price has dropped to 17600-17700 yuan/ton. After the National Day holiday, magnesium prices rose due to market transactions during the holiday period and a slight increase in raw material prices after the holiday. Since mid October, downstream demand has been insufficient, market transactions have decreased, and magnesium prices have continued to fall to 16500 yuan/ton. Although there are favorable policies, it is difficult for demand to increase significantly, and there is no significant change in the supply side. Until the end of the year, the situation of oversupply continued, and magnesium prices fell to around 16000 yuan/ton. The lowest price in recent years.

Magnesium price forecast for 2025:

Raw material end:

In terms of the ferrosilicon market, it is expected that its price will fluctuate within the range of 6000 to 7500 yuan by 2025. The production commencement situation will be mainly affected by the adjustment of profit levels. Therefore, we need to continuously monitor the investment in new production capacity. If there is a lack of macro favorable policies, environmental protection measures for the industry itself, and dual control of energy consumption, it will be difficult for the price of ferrosilicon to achieve significant fluctuations.

Supply and demand side:

The magnesium market is currently facing the problem of weak downstream demand, and prices have mostly remained relatively low. As a result, some manufacturers have carried out routine maintenance operations due to losses. At present, the rotating maintenance of most manufacturers has been basically completed, and the production operation is stable. As the market gradually enters the peak demand season, if there are no other unexpected factors to interfere, the supply of magnesium metal market may increase slightly, and the overall market supply will show a sufficient trend. In the absence of other relevant policy influences, it is expected that the supply of magnesium metal market will remain overall stable by 2025. From the perspective of demand, there will not be a significant change in the downstream demand pattern. Some downstream enterprises in foreign countries have stopped production, resulting in weakened demand and continued weakness on the demand side.

Overall, the supply and demand sides in the magnesium market are in a game with each other. It is highly likely that the magnesium metal market will remain stable by 2025, with a slight rebound in magnesium prices before turning into a narrow range oscillation trend.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from January 13th to 17th, the domestic aggregated MDI market operated relatively strongly, with an average price of 18233 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 18283 yuan/ton at the end of the week, an increase of 0.27% during the period and a year-on-year increase of 16.45%. The domestic aggregated MDI market saw a slight increase during the week, with ASEAN Wanhua MDI and Wanhua TDI prices set to rise by $200/ton. Boosted by news, the domestic MDI market saw a slight increase, with downstream demand entering the market and mainstream factories prioritizing export orders.

On the supply side, domestic facilities are maintaining stable operation. The 410000 ton/year facility in Jinhu, South Korea is scheduled to undergo maintenance starting from February 9th, lasting for about a month.

On the cost side, raw material pure benzene: Recently, the pure benzene market has seen a slight increase. As of January 17th, the benchmark price of pure benzene in Shengyi Society is 7531 yuan/ton. Raw material aniline: Currently, the domestic aniline market is stable. As of January 17th, the benchmark price of aniline in Shengyi Society is 9075 yuan/ton. The overall impact of aggregating MDI costs is relatively small.

On the demand side, downstream demand is following steadily, and the export market is performing well. As the holiday approaches and logistics is about to shut down, there are more concentrated deliveries.

Future forecast: The current trend of the aggregated MDI market is strong, with slow filling of goods sources and low inventory levels in the market. It is expected that the aggregated MDI market will operate strongly.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from January 13th to 17th, MTBE prices fell from 6562 yuan/ton to 5862 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 10.67% during the period, a month on month increase of 5.73%, and a year-on-year decrease of 8.22%. In the early stage, favorable factors such as the rise in crude oil prices and gasoline prices supported a wide upward trend, but there were many speculative factors involved in the price increase. Subsequently, the market returned to rationality, and the domestic MTBE market price fluctuated and fell, with a significant downward trend.

On the cost side, in terms of crude oil: International oil prices have risen, mainly due to favorable factors such as the US Treasury Department announcing new sanctions against Russia, market concerns about increased supply risks, and continued severe cold weather in some parts of the US and Europe, boosting fuel consumption demand. US commercial crude oil inventories have been declining for eight consecutive weeks. As of January 16th, the settlement price of the main Brent crude oil futures contract was $81.29 per barrel.

On the demand side, international crude oil futures have fluctuated upwards, and the market has been active in recent times under the stimulation of positive news. Refineries have raised their prices one after another, and some mid to downstream merchants have made moderate purchases under the buying sentiment. The market buying and selling atmosphere has heated up. Short term MTBE demand is influenced by favorable factors.

Supply side: Short term production may increase. Short term domestic MTBE supply is affected by bearish factors.

As of the close on January 16th, the closing price of the Asian MTBE market has increased by $6.06/ton compared to the previous trading day, with FOB Singapore closing at $760.36-762.36/ton. The closing price of the European MTBE market decreased by $4.75/ton compared to the previous trading day, and FOB ARA closed at $888.74-889.24/ton. The closing price of the MTBE market in the United States decreased by $5.56/ton compared to the previous trading day, and the FOB Gulf offshore price closed at $797.11-797.46/ton (225.07-225.17 cents/gallon).

The forecast for the future market is that terminal inventory will be moderately replenished before the holiday, but manufacturers also face pressure to reduce inventory. MTBE analysts from Shengyi Society believe that the domestic MTBE market is mainly experiencing slight fluctuations.