Market analysis

On the two days after the festival, the price of magnesium in different regions increased by 500-1000 yuan / ton. According to the data monitoring of business society, as of the 6th, the average price in the domestic market was 37166.67 yuan / ton, up 2.29% from that before the festival. The transaction price of magnesium ingot market was concentrated at 37000-37500 yuan / ton.

In terms of magnesium plants, the pre holiday price protection operation has been continued. The recent trading volume has improved relatively. In addition, the epidemic situation has improved, the market confidence has warmed up, and the factory has tentatively increased. However, the overall market is still in a tepid state, and the magnesium market continues to rise, which needs to be studied. In terms of raw materials, the ferrosilicon and blue carbon markets are depressed, and the prices show a slight downward trend. The coal is subject to strengthened control by the policy section, which affects the mentality of some coke enterprises. The magnesium plant has obviously pressed the price of raw materials, but the upstream price concession is not willing.

Business analysts believe that at present, magnesium ingots are in a tentative upward adjustment stage, which still depends on the release degree of subsequent demand. In the short term, the downstream just needs to replenish the warehouse to provide price support. However, considering that the raw material price is still high, the overall downstream demand is flat, and the subsequent price increase confidence of magnesium city is insufficient.

The latest p-value price of ethylene glycol on May 5 was 4975 yuan / ton, up 2.05% from the previous trading day and down 3.08% year-on-year.

Oil prices continued to rise on Thursday after the EU formulated a plan to impose new sanctions on Russia, including a crude oil embargo within six months, offsetting concerns about weak demand in China, and the cost of ethylene glycol was well supported. Ethylene glycol is running with strong crude oil today. The recent cargo negotiation of MEG outer plate is around us $635-655 / ton, but the downstream polyester construction is still at a low level, and the current weak pattern of production and sales continues.

Forecast: interval shock.

According to the bulk list data of business society, the average market price of domestic caprolactam liquid on April 1 was 13033 yuan / ton, and the average market price of domestic caprolactam liquid on April 29 was 13400 yuan / ton, with a price increase of 2.81% this month.

2、 Market analysis

In April, domestic caprolactam prices rose first and then fell. In mid and early April, the caprolactam market rose. The high level of raw material market is strong, and the cost of caprolactam is well supported. Some enterprises have reduced the production of devices or parking, and the supply in the yard has been reduced. In late April, the price of caprolactam fluctuated and fell. The price of raw materials continues to rise, and the cost of caprolactam is under great pressure. Downstream procurement is followed up as needed, and the on-site trading volume is acceptable. At present, the supply and demand game of caprolactam is dominated by stalemate operation. Follow up the downstream procurement as needed and operate carefully on site. Near the end of the month, the transaction was good, the downstream began to buy one after another, and the enterprises raised the price according to the trend. As of April 29, the price of Sinopec caprolactam liquid was 14500 yuan / ton. The price of Baling Hengyi caprolactam liquid is 14500 yuan / ton, 300000 tons / year. The unit is started normally and delivered after acceptance. The price of caprolactam liquid of Baling Petrochemical is 14500 yuan / ton, 450000 tons / year. The unit is started normally and delivered after acceptance. Shandong Hualu Hengsheng caprolactam bulk water price is 14100 yuan / ton, and the manufacturer’s unit capacity is 300000 tons / year. It is accepted and sent to East China.

The price of raw material pure benzene rose and fell this month. In the first half of April, the price of pure benzene began to fall after rising slightly. Several units in the downstream of pure benzene were shut down, the operating rate of styrene in the main downstream decreased significantly, the demand decreased, and pure benzene continued to weaken. After stabilizing in the second half of April, it began to rebound and rise. Near the end of the month, the enthusiasm of the lower reaches to fill the empty space increased, the domestic market negotiation rebounded, the enterprise inventory pressure decreased, and the price rebounded. The rising price of downstream styrene and the increase of unit operating rate have improved the demand for pure benzene.

The domestic market of downstream PA6 fluctuated in a narrow range this month. In April, the operating rate of domestic PA6 polymerization plant was generally stable at about 70% in the month, with limited change. In terms of news, the situation in Russia and Ukraine became more and more tense during the month. As a result, the impact of the international crude oil price on the cost side of PA6 was not as obvious as expected. The supply side of PA6 continues the previous abundant pattern, the demand of downstream enterprises is weak, and the on-site trading is general. Stimulated by caprolactam in the last ten days, the company followed up the replenishment, but the operating rate of downstream enterprises in the month was general. In addition, the health incident has hindered the logistics in many places in East China, resulting in the weakening of some PA6 demand.

3、 Future forecast

Caprolactam analysts of business society believe that at present, the price of raw material pure benzene continues to rise and the cost support is good. The downstream began to purchase one after another, the on-site transactions were smooth, and caprolactam increased in line with the trend. Under favorable factors, caprolactam market is expected to rise in the short term.

In April, the domestic butyl acetate market continued the trend of the previous month and continued to decline, deepening the decline compared with the previous month. Butyl acetate continued to fall in the absence of supply and demand support and cost decline. According to the monitoring of business society, butyl acetate decreased by 4.59% this month. At the end of the month, the domestic mainstream quotation of butyl acetate was 9600-9900 yuan / ton.

First of all, in terms of cost, acetic acid and n-butanol both came out of the decline, especially acetic acid. According to the monitoring of business society, the monthly decline of acetic acid was 18.39%. The supply performance was loose this month. Shanghai Huayi acetic acid plant returned to full load operation, and the acetic acid plant of the main manufacturer in Shandong returned to normal operation. The on-site supply increased. Affected by public health events, logistics and transportation were blocked, freight rates increased and some regions did not transport. The downstream demand weakened, the market supply accumulated, and the market mentality of buying up but not buying down. The acetic acid market continued to operate weakly. The decline in cost is the direct reason for the weak price of butyl acetate.

In terms of upstream n-butanol, n-butanol fell by 4% this month. Especially in the first ten days of April, after the Qingming Festival, the trading atmosphere of n-butanol market in Shandong is general, and the inventory of some n-butanol factories has accumulated. Under the supply pressure, the factory reduced the ex factory price of n-butanol for three consecutive days on June, July and August, with a cumulative reduction range of 200-300 yuan / ton. At present, due to the limited factors of logistics and transportation, the overall supply and demand circulation of n-butanol in the field is still slow, Downstream users are cautious about spot purchase of raw materials.

In terms of supply and demand, the operating rate of major manufacturers remained stable this month, and butyl acetate showed the characteristics of weak supply and demand. On the supply side, the operating rate of manufacturers remains low, but the downstream demand has not improved significantly. The market trading atmosphere is poor, and most operators are bearish. Due to the epidemic, transportation is limited, and the rise of freight rates has further suppressed some demand. The substitution of other raw materials has occupied part of the demand for butyl, and the weak demand is the fundamental reason for the decline of butyl price. Excluding the weak supply and demand, it can be seen that the rise and fall of butyl acetate mainly comes from the guidance of downward cost.

Future forecast: at present, the cost side is relatively weak, especially acetic acid, but from the historical trend, the trend of butyl acetate and n-butanol is more relevant, which also confirms that the decline of n-butanol and butyl acetate is not as large as that of acetic acid. From the perspective of supply and demand, the supply pressure is not large. When the demand is not followed up in time, there is little hope of market rebound in the later stage of the market. In the near future, we still need to pay attention to the trend of double raw materials.

In April, the domestic phenol market was first depressed and then increased, and the overall decline. According to the monitoring data of business agency, the average offer of domestic phenol market was 10645 yuan / ton on April 1, 10337 yuan / ton on April 30, down 2.89% in the month. On April 21, the domestic phenol Market offered 100087 yuan / ton, with an amplitude of 5.24%. By the end of the month, the offer in East China market was about 10300 yuan / ton, that in South China was 10350 yuan / ton, and that in North China and surrounding areas of Shandong was 10325 yuan / ton

Trend chart of average price of phenol in the national market

The domestic market remained depressed in the early April, but the market remained depressed in the early April. In the first ten days, with the replenishment of port inventory, the inventory increased to nearly 40000 tons, but the logistics pressure is still large, the terminal demand is poor, and the phenomenon of domestic goods urging delivery, the phenol market once fell to 10000 yuan / ton. Then, taking into account the cost pressure, the phenomenon of domestic goods expediting slowed down, the market bottomed out and rebounded, and the cargo holders cautiously explored the rise.

Pure benzene rose after falling in April. On April 1, the price was 8400-8650 yuan / ton (the average price was 8540 yuan / ton); On April 30, the price was 8400-8750 yuan / ton (the average price was 8590 yuan / ton), with a monthly increase of 0.59%, an increase of 17.35% over the same period last year. Affected by public health events, the overall operating load of pure benzene and downstream products decreased, the demand for pure benzene was insufficient, and the price fell continuously. The logistics transportation between some regions is blocked, and the price difference is obvious. In the last ten days of the month, downstream enterprises filled the gap in advance, the market turnover increased, and the price of pure benzene rebounded; In addition, Sinopec’s continuous rise before the festival also gave positive support to the market.

The downstream bisphenol a market fluctuated in a narrow range as a whole, and continued to be 16400-16800 yuan / ton in the month. Due to the limited product supply, it also alleviated the decline in demand caused by the decline in downstream operating rate to a certain extent. The supply is expected to increase in May, and the market may have downward expectations.

In May, the phenol ketone units of Yangzhou Shiyou and Zhongsha Tianjin Petrochemical were overhauled to alleviate the supply pressure. The logistics and transportation are expected to improve in May. The business society expects that the phenol market may have upward expectations in May, but there are frequent ups and downs during the period affected by various uncertain factors.

On April 28, the rare earth index was 785 points, unchanged from yesterday, down 22.05% from the highest point of 1007 points in the cycle (2022-02-24), and up 189.67% from the lowest point of 271 points on September 13, 2015. (Note: the period refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to now)

The trend of domestic rare earth index is temporarily stable. The price of some domestic light rare earth praseodymium neodymium series has declined, the price of praseodymium neodymium oxide has declined by 2000 yuan / ton to 845500 yuan / ton, the price of praseodymium neodymium metal is 1035000 yuan / ton, the price of praseodymium oxide is 865000 yuan / ton, the price of neodymium oxide is 885000 yuan / ton, the price of metal praseodymium is 1185000 yuan / ton, the price of metal neodymium is 1085000 yuan / ton, the price of dysprosium oxide is 2.6 million yuan / ton, and the price of dysprosium ferroalloy is 259500 yuan / ton, The price of dysprosium metal is 3.32 million yuan / ton. Some prices in the domestic light rare earth market have declined. The recent procurement is general. The price of dysprosium in the domestic heavy rare earth market is temporarily stable, while the price of terbium is higher. The downstream procurement is mainly on demand, and Myanmar prohibits export. It is expected that the price of domestic rare earth market will remain stable in the later stage.

Commodity market: according to the monitoring of business society, Shanghai Rubber continued to fluctuate slightly on April 27, with the main closing price of 12700 yuan / ton, and the market spot market adjusted by about 50-100 yuan / ton. The average spot market price of domestic natural rubber (standard I) in East China market was 12370 yuan / ton, up 0.57% from the quotation of the previous trading day and down 6.16% year-on-year.

Industry focus: Recently, it has been difficult for Shanghai and other places to issue rubber, the circulation of raw materials and finished products in many domestic places has been blocked, the export demand has also decreased, and it is difficult to recover in the short term; The slowdown in demand has led to heavy finished product inventory of tire enterprises and great pressure to go to the warehouse. With the May Day holiday approaching, the operating rate of enterprises is expected to be reduced due to multiple effects. In terms of inventory, the process of eliminating natural rubber in Qingdao free trade zone was slow. The data showed that as of the 22nd, the rubber inventory in Qingdao was 407600 tons, a month on month increase of – 4.59%.

Aftermarket forecast: with the downward adjustment of global economic growth expectation and the multi-point divergence of domestic public health events, auto enterprises in some serious areas will stop production and the circulation system in many places will be blocked, the delivery of raw materials will be difficult, the demand for finished products will be reduced, and the downstream demand will slow down, resulting in the continuous increase of pressure on spot finished products, the start of production enterprises will be blocked, and the May Day holiday will be superimposed. It is expected that the aftermarket of natural rubber will continue to be weak and volatile.

Commodity market: according to the monitoring data of business agency, the domestic mainstream quotation of solid (industrial grade, content ≥ 28%) polyaluminium chloride on April 26, 2022 was 2315 yuan / ton. The market has been stable temporarily in recent days, with a year-on-year decrease of 2.47%.

Key points of analysis: at present, the manufacturer’s production is normal, the spot inventory is sufficient, the public health events affect the transportation and circulation of goods, the delivery is difficult, the cost increases, the actual purchase volume is not easy to form a single, and the polyaluminium chloride market has weakened slightly recently. As for raw hydrochloric acid, the domestic hydrochloric acid market has increased slightly. The current mainstream market quotation is 310 yuan / ton, up 36.76% year-on-year. The recent market of upstream liquid chlorine has decreased slightly, the cost support is insufficient, the downstream market continues to consolidate, and the downstream purchase intention is general.

Future forecast: affected by the strict control of public health events, the problem of blocked market delivery and transportation will continue in the short term. This month, the raw material cost fluctuated and decreased. In the case of no shortage of goods and slow turnover, it is expected that the short-term polyaluminium chloride market is slightly weak, supplemented by fluctuations.

The monitoring shows that on April 25, Shanghai Rubber continued to fluctuate and decrease, with an increase over the previous days. The main force closed at 12665 yuan / ton, and the spot market adjusted downward by about 300-350 yuan / ton. The average spot market price of domestic natural rubber (standard I) in East China market was 12260 yuan / ton, down 2.54% from the quotation on the previous trading day and 8.76% year-on-year.

Industry analysis: macroscopically, domestic public health events have a wide impact, affecting the supply of raw materials, circulation and sales of finished products; Internationally, the International Monetary Fund lowered global economic growth. Supply side: according to the latest ANRPC report, the global output of natural rubber is expected to increase by 4.9% to 954000 tons in March; Among the production areas, India and Yunnan have fully opened cutting and increased production. Hainan has opened cutting at the end of April and early May, and entered the full rubber cutting period around mid May, which is expected to increase significantly. Demand side: the transportation of raw materials and finished products has been greatly affected by the recent public health events in China, and the local short-distance transportation in some provinces and cities has improved. It is reported that the operating rate of some tire enterprises in Shandong has rebounded for a short time. The data show that the operating load of all steel tires of tire enterprises in Shandong last week was 58.77%, an increase of 2.40 percentage points over the previous week and a decrease of 17.28 percentage points over the same period last year; The operating load of semi steel tire was 67.62%, down 0.99 percentage points from the previous week. Secondly, the demand for tire exports has declined. The current situation has affected the import and export trade of finished products, which is difficult to recover in the short term. Domestic shipments are blocked, and the inventory pressure of tire finished products continues to increase. According to a document issued by the Federation of passenger cars, the national passenger car market was affected by the downturn in consumption in 2022. In the first quarter, the national passenger car market retailed 4.915 million vehicles, a year-on-year decrease of 4.5%, and the overall trend was lower than expected; The temporary standstill of the automobile industry chain caused by the epidemic has caused huge losses, and the impact of supply interruption of secondary parts will seriously affect the sales volume in the second quarter. Inventory: in the previous period, the inventory of Shanghai Rubber Futures in the week of 22nd increased slightly compared with the previous week, and the registered warehouse receipt decreased slightly; In Qingdao Free Trade Zone, affected by demand, the process of natural rubber inventory elimination is slow. Import and export: the data show that in March 2022, China imported 668000 tons of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex), down 6% from 711000 tons in the same period in 2021. From January to March 2022, China imported 1.861 million tons of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex), an increase of 3.9% over 1.791 million tons in the same period in 2021.

Future forecast: the expectation of global economic growth is lowered, domestic public health events are divergent at many points, China’s industrial product circulation system is blocked, raw material delivery pressure is high, car enterprises in some serious areas stop production, downstream demand slows down, the pressure of spot finished products continues to increase, the commencement of production enterprises is blocked, and the future market is expected to continue to be weak and volatile.

Summary of spot price trend of precious metals

According to the data of business agency, on April 22, the average early price of silver market was 5077 yuan / kg, down 1.49%, up 1.43% from the average early price of 5005.33 yuan / kg in the spot market at the beginning of the month (April 1); Compared with the early trading average price of 4770 yuan / kg in the spot market at the beginning of the year (January 1), an increase of 6.44%.

On April 22, the spot market price of gold was 401.62 yuan / g, up 0.90% daily, up 2.60% from the early average price of 394.96 yuan / g in the spot market at the beginning of the month (April 1); Compared with the spot market price at the beginning of the year (January 1), the early average price was 372.37 yuan / kg, an increase of 8.83%.

Comparison of price trends of precious metal gold and silver in recent 1 year

In the long-term cycle, the price trend of precious metals has a good convergence, the long-term trend is basically the same, and the amplitude is slightly different. The daily rise and fall of gold and silver deviated on April 22.

Price trend of precious metals and crude oil

List of policies

1. Domestic news

The Central Bank of China launched a 10 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation on the 24th. Because there was no reverse repurchase maturity today, it realized a net investment of 10 billion yuan on the same day. China’s seven-day repurchase interest rate rose 36 basis points to 1.9034%.

Yi Gang, governor of the central bank, said at the 2022 annual meeting of the Boao Forum for Asia on the 22nd that the people’s Bank of China handed over more than 1 trillion yuan of balance profits to the central government according to law, which is mainly used to offset tax rebates and transfer payments to local governments. The handover arrangement will move forward according to the progress of tax rebates and fiscal expenditure. The balance profit mainly comes from the profit accumulation of the people’s Bank of China in the past few years, which is equivalent to increasing the fiscal expenditure by 1% of the total GDP, reflecting the coordination and linkage of monetary policy and fiscal policy, and making joint efforts to stabilize the macro-economic market..

2. International news

The Central Bank of Paraguay raised interest rates by 50 basis points to 6.75%.

Future forecast

In the long run, the monetary easing policy is gradually ebbing, and the Fed’s expectation of raising interest rates is expected to suppress the price of precious metals. In the short term, the risk aversion of precious metals has gradually subsided, and the upward space of precious metal prices has been suppressed.