The latest p-value price of ethylene glycol on June 2 was 5000 yuan / ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. Up 0.2% year on year.

WTI crude oil futures and Brent crude oil fell during the day, and the cost side was adjusted weakly. The external market of ethylene glycol has stabilized. Recently, the negotiated price of shipping and cargo has been around us $624 / ton, the MEG operating rate has declined slightly, the port inventory has remained high, the downstream market trading is light, and the production and sales of polyester market have not been significantly improved.

Forecast: the fundamentals did not show an obvious positive trend, and continued to fluctuate in a narrow range in the state of undervaluation.

Zinc price fell on June 1

According to the data monitoring of the business agency, the zinc price fell on June 1, and the zinc market fell back. On June 1, the zinc price was 26172 yuan / ton, down 0.01% from 26174 yuan / ton on the previous trading day; On June 1, the zinc price fell back; Compared with 2021, the zinc price increased by 13.14% year-on-year.

Key points of analysis

Zinc ingot inventory in LME market decreased, registered warehouse receipts decreased, cancelled warehouse receipts decreased, supply growth in zinc market slowed down and demand growth increased; Downstream enterprises resumed production and work, more enterprises in the zinc industry chain started work, and the supply and demand of zinc market recovered. However, the supply and demand of zinc market has not yet recovered to the expected level, and the downward pressure of zinc market still has great upward momentum.

Aftermarket forecast

The recovery of supply and demand was not as good as expected, and the zinc price was expected to rise slightly in the future.

Trend of metallic magnesium in May

In May, the magnesium ingot Market rose first and then fell. The overall weakness was mainly downward. At the end of the month, it closed down steadily. As of May 31, the market tax included spot exchange was 31000 yuan / ton, down about 5000 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the month, down 14.68%. At the beginning of the month, the metal magnesium started its upward trend. After the May Day holiday, some customers entered the market one after another. Although the market inquiries increased, there were still few high price transactions. Subsequently, the orchid charcoal rectification news stimulated the market. The price rose rapidly. The price rise again made the buyers and sellers cautious, and the quotation gradually returned to a rational state. In the middle and late ten days of the month, the magnesium market began to decline all the way. In view of the large differences in factory inventory and capital, the market quotation was seriously divided, and the mainstream price mainly fell until it remained at the 30000 yuan level.

Market analysis

Factory aspect

At this stage, the production level of magnesium plants is relatively normal. Under the premise of the lack of good news in the market, the mentality of magnesium manufacturers is empty. Different magnesium plants have different direct inventory and capital pressure. Small-scale enterprises often take the initiative to reduce prices, hoping to drive the transaction. However, large-scale magnesium enterprises have a strong willingness to support prices, which is not the reason for price concessions. Some magnesium plants choose not to offer prices and wait and see the market.

Raw material cost

Dolomite in Wutai Area is currently quoted at 180 yuan / ton. As the main raw material of magnesium ingot, the supply of dolomite is becoming more and more tense. At present, the time for the resumption of the mine is uncertain, or it will have a certain impact on the subsequent supply.

The spot price of raw ferrosilicon and coke was weak, and the market followed the downward trend. The price in the main production areas of Ningxia was 8700-8900 yuan / ton, and the average market price was 8755 yuan / ton. Ferrosilicon manufacturers began to avoid peak production due to profit contraction, and capacity replacement began in some areas, resulting in a downward trend in the start-up and output in May; The coke market has experienced four rounds of increase and decrease. As of the press release, the price of primary metallurgical coke in Shanxi is 3116 yuan / ton, and coke enterprises take the initiative to limit production by 1-30%; The overall operating rate of the downstream enterprises of Lancang carbon is low, and the transaction of some high priced resources is frustrated. The price drops slightly, and the decline of raw material prices weakens the cost support for magnesium ingots.

Aftermarket forecast

In May, the market was affected by the continued weakness of the demand market. On the contrary, the supply side showed a slow upward trend, and the market mentality was generally empty. On the news, Yulin Lancan’s rectification policy was delayed and lacked positive boost, and the magnesium ingot quotation continued to decline. As a result, the production profit is further squeezed. In addition, the current price is at the node of 30000 yuan, and the magnesium plant is willing to offer more. Whether it can stabilize depends on the subsequent recovery of demand.

1、 Price trend

Latest price (May 30):11280 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: according to the data monitoring chart of business club, on May 30, the market price of phosphoric acid was 11280 yuan / ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a year-on-year increase of 92.27. At present, the price of raw material yellow phosphorus is high, the cost side is strongly supported, the overall focus of the phosphoric acid market has moved upward, the price increase range of enterprises’ offer is different, and the market transaction is tepid. At present, the price of raw yellow phosphorus is 38000-40000 yuan / ton, and the market price of thermal phosphoric acid is about 11000-12800 yuan / ton.

It is expected that the phosphoric acid market will remain stable in the short term.

Recent urea price trend

As can be seen from the above figure, the domestic urea price fell slightly this week, from 3265.00 yuan / ton at the end of last week to 3220.00 yuan / ton at the end of this week, a decrease of 1.38%, an increase of 38.00% over the same period last year. On May 27, the urea commodity index was 149.77, the same as yesterday, down 1.68% from 152.33, the highest point in the cycle (May 15, 2022), and up 169.37% from 55.60, the lowest point on August 17, 2016. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

Insufficient cost support, weak downstream demand and slightly lower urea supply

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the mainstream ex factory price of domestic urea fell slightly this week. Zhangzhou San’an urea was quoted at 3350 yuan / ton this weekend, down 150 yuan / ton compared with last weekend; Shandong Ruixing urea offered 3220 yuan / ton this weekend, which was temporarily stable compared with last weekend; Hualu Hengsheng urea offered 3170 yuan / ton at the end of this week, down 35 yuan / ton compared with last weekend;

From the upstream and downstream industrial chain data, the upstream products of urea fell slightly this week as a whole: the price of liquefied natural gas fell slightly, from 6814.00 yuan / ton at the end of last week to 6640.00 yuan / ton at the end of this week, a decrease of 2.55%, an increase of 90.08% year-on-year compared with the same period last year; Coal prices have fluctuated in a narrow range recently. The price of melamine in the downstream of urea fell slightly this week, from 10175.00 yuan / ton at the end of last week to 10100.00 yuan / ton at the end of this week, a decrease of 0.74%.

In terms of demand, agricultural demand follows up on demand, while industrial demand is dominated by rigid demand. The wheat harvest is coming in the north, the agricultural demand is weakening, and some areas in the northeast and South purchase on demand. The wait-and-see atmosphere of compound fertilizer and rubber plate factories towards high priced urea is becoming stronger, the procurement slows down, the price of melamine drops slightly, and the enthusiasm for urea procurement is weakened. From the perspective of supply, the daily output of urea this week was about 150000-160000 tons, with a slight decline, and the urea inventory was at a low level.

Urea prices fell slightly in the future

In the first ten days of June, the domestic urea market fell slightly, mainly due to consolidation. Urea analysts of business agency believe that the upstream market of urea fell slightly and the cost support weakened. Agricultural demand is general, industrial demand is weakened, and downstream customers have a strong wait-and-see attitude towards high priced urea. In June, Xiaguan fertilizer is about to enter the market. The mentality of the industry is empty, and the urea market is dominated by a small shock and decline in the future.

The latest p-value price of ethylene glycol on May 26 was 4966.67 yuan / ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. Year on year decrease of 1.32%.

Ethylene glycol futures recovered their lost ground today, and the external market rose slightly in the afternoon. Recently, the negotiated price of cargo is around us $600 / ton. As of May 26, the total inventory of ethylene glycol in the main port of East China was 1184500 tons, a decrease of 2800 tons or 0.24% compared with last Thursday, an increase of 6700 tons or 0.57% compared with Monday. The port delivery volume was slow, and the inventory level remained high in the short term. The atmosphere of real orders in the market is general, and the production and sales of polyester market are light. Therefore, despite the decline of ethylene glycol operating rate, the contradiction between supply and demand still exists.

Forecast: interval shock.

Ethylene oxide remained stable, with the ex factory price of 8200 yuan / ton in East China, North China, South China and Northeast China and 8300 yuan / ton in Central China.

In terms of upstream ethylene, the external price of ethylene in Northeast Asia is US $1100 / ton, that in Southeast Asia is US $1150 / ton, that of Luxi Chemical ethylene is 8350 yuan / ton today, and that of Jinshan Lianmao ethylene is 8350 yuan / ton today. The ethylene market is weak, the RMB exchange rate is reduced, the cost support is limited, the profit space is repaired, and the overall load of ethylene oxide rebounds. Downstream demand picked up slightly, monomer offers were strong, manufacturers’ willingness to support the market was obvious, long-term recovery was still weak, and most traders shipped according to the market.

Prediction: the long short factor game is temporarily deadlocked, but if the ethylene price trend continues to weaken, the EO center of gravity may gradually move down.

Trade name: acetic acid

Latest price (May 24): 5140 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: the market price trend of acetic acid rose slightly today, and the average market price in East China increased by 1.18% compared with the previous working day. The impact of the epidemic situation in Shanghai was weakened, the market trading was smooth, the enterprise inventory was not under pressure, the downstream market was mainly purchased on demand, and the market trading operated smoothly. The market learned that the 1 million ton acetic acid plant of Shandong Yankuang will be stopped for maintenance on the 25th, the market supply may be reduced, and the mentality of the field operators is optimistic, The quotation of acetic acid increased slightly.

Future forecast: the short-term acetic acid market will wait and see the consolidation and operation, and it may rise in the future. Pay attention to the market supply.

Trade name: acetic acid

Latest price (May 23): 5080 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: the market price trend of acetic acid rose slightly today, and the average market price in East China increased by 0.40% compared with the previous working day. The impact of the epidemic situation in Shanghai was weakened, the market trading was smooth, the enterprise inventory was not under pressure, the downstream market was mainly purchased on demand, and the market trading operated smoothly. In addition, the market was informed that the 1 million ton acetic acid plant of Shandong Yankuang will be shut down for maintenance in the latter ten days, the market supply will be reduced, and the quotation of acetic acid may be increased.

Future forecast: the short-term acetic acid market is mainly on the sidelines, and it may rise in the future. Pay attention to the market supply.

According to the data of business agency, on May 20, the average price of P value of oil-based ethylene glycol was 5008.33 yuan / ton, which was the same as that in the previous statistical cycle.

Oil prices fell on Friday as investors worried that weak global economic growth and tighter monetary policy by the central bank might curb the recovery of fuel demand. The cost side is slightly loose, the external market price of ethylene glycol is weak, and the actual single transaction is sporadic. The recent negotiated price of shipping is around us $610 / ton.

In the downstream, the current terminal is depressed, the downstream orders are poor, and the production and sales of polyester Market in Jiangsu and Zhejiang are generally flat. At present, ethylene glycol continues to suffer losses, ethylene oxide is more economical than ethylene glycol, and the cogeneration unit tends to EO Production.

In terms of inventory, as of May 19, the total inventory of ethylene glycol in the main ports of East China was 1187300 tons, an increase of 25700 tons, an increase of 2.21%, and 36200 tons, an increase of 3.14%, compared with Monday. The inventory remained high.

Forecast: low range shock.