On June 16, the rare earth index was 856 points, unchanged from yesterday, down 15.00% from the highest point of 1007 points in the cycle (2022-02-24), and up 215.87% from the lowest point of 271 points on September 13, 2015. (Note: the period refers to 2011-12-01 to now)

The trend of domestic rare earth index is temporarily stable. The prices of some light rare earth praseodymium and neodymium Series in China have declined. The price of praseodymium and neodymium oxide has declined by 5000 yuan / ton to 952500 yuan / ton, the price of praseodymium and neodymium metal has declined by 5000 yuan / ton to 1157500 yuan / ton, the price of praseodymium oxide is 980000 yuan / ton, the price of metal praseodymium is 1265000 yuan / ton, the price of metal neodymium is 1.2 million yuan / ton, and the price of dysprosium oxide has increased by 5000 yuan / ton to 2545000 yuan / ton, The price of dysprosium ferroalloy is 2.535 million yuan / ton, and the price of dysprosium metal is 3.315 million yuan / ton. The price trend of domestic light rare earth market is temporarily stable, and the recent procurement is general. In the domestic heavy rare earth market, the price of dysprosium series is mainly stable, the price of terbium series is temporarily stable, and the downstream purchase is mainly on demand. Myanmar prohibits exports, and it is expected that the price of domestic rare earth market will remain stable in the later period.

Trade name: acetic acid

Latest price (June 15): 4700 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: today’s acetic acid market price trend has been significantly reduced, and the average market price in East China has been reduced by 6.37% compared with the previous working day. Except for the maintenance of some acetic acid devices, other enterprises in the field are running smoothly, the market supply has increased compared with the previous period, the downstream demand is weak, and the enthusiasm for entering the market is general. Due to the resistance to high price acetic acid, the trading atmosphere in the field is light, and the enterprises have strong intention to ship. In order to maintain the pace of shipment, The quotation continues to decline, the mentality of the floor operators is weak, and the market situation is weak.

Aftermarket forecast: the short-term acetic acid market will continue to operate in a weak position, with specific attention to market transactions.

Trade name: TDI

Latest price (June 14): 17200 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: the average price of TDI market in East China today is flat compared with the previous working day, and the market is stable for the time being. The news on the floor was quiet, the factory was in a positive attitude, the offer of the goods holder was temporarily stable, the enthusiasm of the downstream inquiry was ok, the purchase in the market just needed to be followed up, and the market was in a stalemate. At present, the quotation range of dealers in East China is about 16800 yuan / ton for domestic goods and 17000-17300 yuan / ton for Shanghai goods.

Future forecast: in the later stage, TDI market will be on the sidelines, focusing on market supply and downstream follow-up.

1、 Price trend

Latest price (June 13):8556.25 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: on June 13, the average price of pvc5 in the domestic market was 581.25 yuan / ton, up 1.08% over the previous trading day and down 6.23% year-on-year. At present, the futures market is declining at a high level, the spot market is following a downward trend, downstream procurement continues to maintain rigid demand, the buyer and the seller negotiate carefully and maintain a wait-and-see state, and the mentality of the industry is poor. Up to now, the price of raw calcium carbide is about 3750-4050 yuan / ton, and the price of PVC is 8250-8700 yuan / ton.

The PVC market is expected to decline slightly.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of the bulk list of the business community, aniline rose continuously this week. On June 2, the price in Shandong was 11200-11430 yuan / ton, and the price of aniline in Nanjing was 11800 yuan / ton; On June 10, the price in Shandong was 11700-11930 yuan / ton; The price of aniline in Nanjing was 12500 yuan / ton, up 5.51% over last week and 30.64% over the same period last year.

2、 Analysis and comment

On the cost side, pure benzene: this week, pure benzene rose strongly. External factors: the recent strong rise in international crude oil, coupled with the rise in the price of pure benzene in the US gold plate, drove the rise of pure benzene in Asia. Positive external news gave strong support to the domestic pure benzene market. Domestic factors: due to the high external price, the import of pure benzene in East China port decreased, the inventory continued to decline, and the shortage of deliverable inventory led to strong short pressure and rising prices. In addition, in the early stage of the main refinery, due to production cost factors, the output of pure benzene decreased and the price remained high. With multiple positive effects, pure benzene exceeded 10000 yuan. On Friday (June 10), the price of pure benzene was 9900-10050 yuan / ton (the average price was 9984 yuan / ton), an increase of 8.91% over last week and 28% over the same period last year.

Nitric acid: domestic nitric acid stabilized after rising this week. On June 2, the domestic production price of nitric acid was 2683.33 yuan / ton, and on June 10, it was 2800 yuan / ton. The price increased by 4.35% compared with last week and 23.53% compared with the same period last year.

Boosted by the positive cost side, aniline rose continuously this week. However, due to the rapid rise of pure benzene, the increase of aniline was less than that of pure benzene, and the cost pressure of aniline increased.

3、 Aftermarket expectation

In terms of cost and pure benzene, the short-term crude oil and external price are still high, and under the influence of external price, the East China port will continue to have low inventory. However, under the pressure of high cost, economic production reduction in the downstream and the arrival of summer maintenance season for main products will lead to negative demand for pure benzene in the future. In general, pure benzene still operates at a high level, but there is no lack of callback possibility.

In terms of nitric acid, the supply of nitric acid is tight, and the price of nitric acid is expected to be strong.

At present, there is no inventory pressure for aniline enterprises. Enterprises are watching the downstream to buy gas and rising cautiously. Pay attention to the trend of raw materials, downstream demand and the impact of aniline plant dynamics on aniline prices.

The latest p-value price of ethylene glycol on June 9 was 5158.33 yuan / ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. The year-on-year increase was 2.15%.

Crude oil prices continued to rise today, with strong cost side support. The total port inventory is slightly reduced, but the remaining space of storage tanks is limited, and American goods arrive this month. MEG port inventory will remain high in the short term. The external market of ethylene glycol has stabilized. Recently, the negotiated price of cargo is around 640 US dollars / ton. MEG operating rate has not fluctuated significantly for the time being. Affected by the continuous low purchasing sentiment in the downstream market, the production and sales are poor, and the increase of ethylene glycol cost is difficult to transmit to the downstream. In terms of units, the restart of Yangzi Petrochemical’s 300000 ton ethylene glycol unit was postponed to June 14. It is reported that the main production of EO and eg will be reduced to a low level in this later period.

Forecast: the cost is high but the downstream is weak, and the overall range of the market fluctuates widely.

Trade name: TDI

Latest price (June 8): 17175 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: the average price of TDI market in East China today is the same as that of the previous working day, and the market situation is on the sidelines. The factory has a firm attitude of supporting the market, the guidance price has been raised, the attitude of the goods holders is optimistic, the offer is temporarily stable, the enthusiasm for downstream inquiry has increased, the purchase in the market continues to be just needed, and the market trading atmosphere is acceptable. At present, the quotation range of dealers in East China is about 16800 yuan / ton for domestic goods and 17000-17300 yuan / ton for Shanghai goods.

Future forecast: in the later stage, TDI market will wait and see, focusing on market supply and downstream follow-up.

On June 7, the rare earth index was 856 points, up 2 points from yesterday, down 15.00% from the highest point of 1007 points in the cycle (2022-02-24), and up 215.87% from the lowest point of 271 points on September 13, 2015. (Note: the period refers to 2011-12-01 to now)

The trend of domestic rare earth index is rising. The prices of some domestic light rare earth praseodymium neodymium series are rising. The price of praseodymium neodymium oxide is rising by 5000 yuan / ton to 962500 yuan / ton, the price of praseodymium neodymium metal is rising by 5000 yuan / ton to 1165000 yuan / ton, the price of praseodymium oxide is rising by 2500 yuan / ton to 980000 yuan / ton, the price of neodymium oxide is 975000 yuan / ton, the price of metal praseodymium is rising by 10000 yuan / ton to 1265000 yuan / ton, the price of metal neodymium is rising by 1195000 yuan / ton, and the price of dysprosium oxide is 2.57 million yuan / ton, The price of dysprosium ferroalloy is 2.655 million yuan / ton, and the price of dysprosium metal is 3.35 million yuan / ton. The price trend of domestic light rare earth market is rising, and the recent procurement is general. The price of dysprosium Series in domestic heavy rare earth market is declining, while the price of terbium series is temporarily stable. The downstream is mainly purchased on demand, and Myanmar prohibits exports. It is expected that the price trend of domestic rare earth market will rise slightly in the later period.

On the cost side, crude oil and the external market continued to strengthen, and the external support was strong. Today, Sinopec raised the price of pure benzene by 200 yuan / ton to 9500 yuan / ton, driving the positive rise of the pure benzene market. Today, the price of pure benzene in China is 9200-9650 yuan / ton.

The inventory level of aniline enterprises is normal, and the cost price continues to rise after the festival, so aniline has the power to act. Today, the price in Shandong is 11200-11400 yuan / ton; The price of aniline in East China is 11800 yuan / ton.

This week, the domestic acetone market was generally upward, but the market was stable near the holiday, and the actual orders in some regions were reduced. According to the monitoring data of business agency, the average offer of domestic acetone market was 5850 yuan / ton on May 27 and 6250 yuan / ton on June 2, up 4.25% in the week. Before the holiday, the offer in East China market was about 6050 yuan / ton, that in South China was 6280 yuan / ton, and that in North China and the surrounding areas of Shandong was 6300 yuan / ton.

Trend chart of average acetone price in East China market

Driven by the continuous rise of crude oil at the raw material end, the raw material pure benzene remains high, and the phenol ketone plant has been in a loss situation for a long time. In order to reverse this situation, the acetone in the phenol ketone plant has continuously raised the bill price for many times, accumulating around 300 yuan / ton. The plant’s rise has brought the market up, the operator’s mentality has been strongly supported, and the market offer has been pushed up.

The downstream MMA added new production units. After the first round of goods preparation before the festival, the trading atmosphere improved, which provided strong support for the upstream. However, with the price increase, the downstream goods preparation before the festival also basically ended. Near the holiday, some traders intend to ship with the intention of transferring profits. The bisphenol a market also experienced a narrow correction before the festival. After a sharp decline in the early stage, the participation of some intermediate traders increased, and many of them were willing to store goods at low prices. Further, the market inquiry increased, with an increase of 100-200 yuan / ton before the festival.

At present, the phenol ketone plant is still close to the profit and loss, and the enthusiasm for pushing up still exists. However, the operators in the field have a stable mentality, the offer remains firm, and they always pay attention to the trend of the plant. After the festival, it is the beginning of the month, and the downstream mainly digests contracts. The terminal has little enthusiasm for replenishment, and the trading volume may not be high. The business agency expects that the domestic acetone market will be mainly adjusted in a narrow range next week.