On August 10, the average price of TDI in East China was 15775 yuan / ton, down 0.16% from the previous working day, and the market situation was waiting to be sorted out. At present, the news in the market is quiet, the supplier’s attitude is mainly supportive of the market, the downstream demand continues to be weak, the enthusiasm for entering the market is not good, and the offer of the cargo carrier is large, stable and small. The operators are cautious and wait for the guidance of the factory news. At present, the quotation range of dealers in East China is about 15200-15500 yuan / ton for domestic goods and 15700-16000 yuan / ton for Shanghai goods.

It is expected that the short-term TDI market will be dominated by stalemate and wait-and-see, and the price will be temporarily stable. Specific attention will be paid to the market supply and downstream follow-up.

On August 9, the price of acetic acid in East China was 3387.50 yuan / ton, down 0.37% from the previous working day. Recently, the acetic acid market was weak, the price trend continued to be weak and downward, the downstream demand continued to be weak, the enthusiasm for entering the market was weak, and the market mentality was cautious. The enterprise maintained the pace of shipment, the focus of trading continued to move downward, and the supply and demand in the market were deadlocked. It is expected that the acetic acid market will be weak and the operation will be sorted out. The specific attention will be paid to the market transaction.

1、 Price summary of mixed xylene on August 5:

The price of Qingdao refining and Chemical Co., Ltd. is 8050 yuan / ton, and that of Shijiazhuang refining and Chemical Co., Ltd. is 7900 yuan / ton,

Jiujiang Petrochemical offers 8000 yuan / ton, and Yangba offers 7800 yuan / ton,

Guangzhou Petrochemical quoted 8200 yuan / ton, and Maoming Petrochemical quoted 8100 yuan / ton,

Changling Refining and Chemical Co., Ltd. offers 8150 yuan / ton,

Xinhai Petrochemical offers 8100 yuan / ton.

2、 Fluctuation trend:

3、 Analysis comments:

In terms of crude oil, the US economic data was good, and employment data showed strong growth, alleviating the negative sentiment of economic recession on energy demand, and the oil price rose slightly.

Today, the xylene of Sinopec South China was reduced by 200 yuan / ton.

The crude oil support is unstable, and the mixed xylene market is cautious.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of the bulk list of business community, aniline fell slightly this week. On July 29, the price in Shandong was 10900-11130 yuan / ton; The price of aniline in Nanjing is 11350-11800 yuan / ton; On August 5, the price in Shandong was 10900-11130 yuan / ton; The price of aniline in Nanjing is 11200-11600 yuan / ton, down 0.34% from last week and up 4.67% from the same period last year.

2、 Analysis and comment

In terms of cost, pure benzene: this week, the inventory of pure benzene in East China port increased by 4000 tons, and the inventory is still in a tight state. After filling the empty space at the end of the month, the speed of picking up goods at the downstream has slowed down significantly. In addition, most of the downstream have suffered losses, and the resistance to high price pure benzene has increased. The economic shutdown and maintenance have increased, and the demand for pure benzene has decreased. Due to poor downstream demand, Sinopec has lowered its listing price for many times, driving the market price down continuously. On Friday (August 5), the price of pure benzene was 8100-8300 yuan / ton (the average price was 8317 yuan / ton), which was 6.47% lower than last week and 9.15% higher than the same period last year.

Nitric acid: domestic nitric acid continued to decline this week. On July 29, the domestic production price of nitric acid was 2750 yuan / ton, and on August 5, the price was 2683 yuan / ton, down 2.42% from last week and 13.35% from the same period last year.

The cost is weak and falling. The downstream of aniline is mainly due to the need to pick up goods. The fundamentals are weak and the aniline is under pressure.

3、 Future market expectation

In terms of cost and pure benzene, bad news: the trend of cost is unstable and the support for pure benzene market is insufficient. The downstream follow-up of pure benzene is poor, the shutdown maintenance is relatively concentrated, and the demand for pure benzene is reduced. The aromatics units of Qilu Petrochemical, Maoming Petrochemical and Shanghai Petrochemical were restarted, and the expected supply increment in the later period. Good news: the port inventory of pure benzene is low, and the short-term tight supply still supports the price of pure benzene. On the whole, the pure benzene market has concentrated bad news, and the price is easy to fall but difficult to rise.

In terms of nitric acid, the delivery of nitric acid is flat, and it is expected that the weak operation will prevail.

There is still a possibility that the cost side will fall. The basic side of aniline is still weak, and it is expected that the price will be weak. Pay attention to the trend of raw materials, downstream demand and the impact of Aniline Unit dynamics on aniline price.

Trade name: urea

Latest price (August 4):2438 yuan / ton

On August 4, the domestic comprehensive price of urea rose slightly, increased by 8 yuan / ton compared with August 4, or 0.33%, and decreased by 13.55% year-on-year compared with the same period last year. The upstream cost support is good, the downstream agricultural demand follows up on demand, and the industrial demand increases. Some manufacturers overhaul, and the daily output of urea is about 140000 tons.

In the future, it is expected that the domestic urea market price may rise slightly, and the average market price is about 2450 yuan / ton.

Trade name: cryolite

Latest price (August 3):7650 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: the price trend of cryolite in Henan continued to run smoothly, and the average price of cryolite production was flat compared with the previous working day. At present, the upstream raw materials are still tight, the price is high, coupled with the high fuel costs of coal, natural gas and other fuels, the production cost of enterprises is large, the operation of on-site devices is mainly low, the enterprise inventory is tight, and the cryolite price is high.

Aftermarket forecast: the short-term cryolite market remains stable at a high level, and the aftermarket will pay attention to the market supply.

On August 2, the price of acetic acid in East China was 3512.50 yuan / ton, unchanged from the previous working day. Last week, the acetic acid market operated weakly and stably, and the domestic market was mainly on the sidelines. At present, the downstream demand continued to be weak, the enthusiasm for entering the market was general, and the just need to follow up was mainly. The mentality of the operators was temporarily stable and on the sidelines, the enterprise quotation was stable, the on-site supply and demand were deadlocked, and the short-term acetic acid market continued to operate on the sidelines, with specific attention to market transactions.

On August 1, the average market price of TDI in East China was 15750 yuan / ton, down 0.63% from the previous working day, and the market was weak. At present, the market supply is stable, the shippers offer to negotiate shipment, the downstream wait-and-see mentality is mainly, the market purchase just needs to be followed up, the terminal industry is depressed, the operator’s mentality is cautious, and the on-site trading is mainly looking for low prices. At present, the quotation range of dealers in East China is about 15000-15200 yuan / ton for domestic goods and about 15300-15700 yuan / ton for Shanghai goods.

It is expected that the short-term TDI market consolidation will be the main operation, and the price may be reduced slightly. Specific attention will be paid to the market supply and downstream follow-up.

1、 Price data

According to the bulk list data of business agency, the price of petroleum coke from local refiners fell this week. On July 31, the average market price in Shandong was 4082.50 yuan / ton, down 3.14% from 4215.00 yuan / ton on July 25.

On July 31, the commodity index of petroleum coke was 317.53, unchanged from yesterday, down 22.31% from the highest point 408.70 in the cycle (2022-05-11), and up 374.70% from the lowest point 66.89 on March 28, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2012-09-30 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

This week, the price of petroleum coke in refineries fell, the refinery shipments were general, the transactions were light, and the downstream procurement was mainly on demand.

Upstream: the international crude oil price fluctuated. On the one hand, the EIA inventory data of the United States showed that the node refined oil unexpectedly surged during the peak driving season. In addition, Beixi No. 1 was restarted, and the easing of the European energy crisis brought bad news to the oil market. In addition, the European Central Bank raised interest rates, causing concerns about falling demand. It can be seen that the oil market long and short performance is quite sticky. Under the background of the global central bank raising interest rates, controlling inflation will bring downward pressure on all kinds of risky assets. On the other hand, the peak driving season in August in the United States may come to an end. According to the latest data, gasoline inventories in the United States have increased unexpectedly in the recent week, which also indicates that demand may end ahead of schedule. In addition, the repeated outbreaks in Asia and the blockade measures may bring some pressure to the oil market.

Downstream: Calcined coke prices fell this week; The market price of metallic silicon fell slightly; The price of downstream electrolytic aluminum rose. As of July 31, the price was 18633.33 yuan / ton.

Analysts of petroleum coke of business agency believe that the international crude oil fluctuated this week, and the cost support of petroleum coke is limited; At the beginning of the week, the inventory of local refining enterprises was high, the shipment of petroleum coke was under pressure, and the refinery reduced the price for shipment; In the second half of the week, the downstream procurement was active, and the prices of some refineries were callback. It is expected that the price of locally refined petroleum coke may be weak in the near future.

On the 28th, the aluminum price hit the bottom and rebounded

According to the data of business agency, on July 28, the average market price of domestic aluminum ingots in East China was 18373.33 yuan / ton, Zha% per day, 3.64% lower than the average market price of 19066.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month (7.1), and 5.19% lower than the average market price of 19090 yuan / ton in the same period last year.

Fundamentals overview

On the macro level, the Fed’s expected interest rate hike fell, expectations were released, pessimism improved, and market risk appetite returned. However, the sustainability needs to be tested. After all, the expectation of interest rate hike in September still exists.

On the supply and demand side, the output continues to rise, and there is a certain pressure on the supply side. The positive news about real estate on Thursday stimulated the sharp rise in prices. On the demand side, the measures to stabilize real estate are conducive to the improvement of aluminum consumption in the real estate sector, but whether the relevant benefits can be realized and the degree of realization remains to be seen. In the absence of substantial improvement in real estate consumption, the recent cyclical destocking began to slow down. On the 28th, the domestic social inventory was 672000 tons, and the inventory accumulated slightly during the week. The overall inventory is still at a relatively low level. The London Metal Exchange (LME) aluminum inventory decreased by 4375 tons, but the pattern of strong supply and weak demand is still in place. It is comprehensively expected that the rebound of aluminum prices is limited.

At the raw material end, China’s alumina port inventory totaled 273000 tons on the 28th, an increase of 5000 tons over last week. Among them, there are 6000 tons in Lianyungang, 80000 tons in Qingdao, 87000 tons in Bayuquan, 52000 tons in Panjin, 38000 tons in Jinzhou, 10000 tons in Qinzhou, Fangcheng, Rizhao, Longkou and Caofeidian.