According to the nickel price monitoring of business agency, on the 24th, the average price of nickel spot market was 176766.67 yuan / ton, down 2.78% from the previous trading day and up 22.64% year-on-year.

In August, manufacturing activity in Europe shrank, and the growth of factory activity in Japan and the United States slowed down. In July, the sales of new single family homes in the United States plummeted to a six-and-a-half-year low. At the beginning of this week, the nickel price was strengthened by the Indonesian policy news. However, due to the limited basic support, the future price continued to fall, and the domestic high temperature limit film affected the output of nickel sulfate plant. On the supply side, the arrival volume of Russian nickel increased significantly, while the terminal demand was weak, the nickel iron transaction was cold and the nickel price was under pressure. It is expected that the nickel price will remain low and fluctuate widely.

On August 23, the average price of TDI in East China was 17300 yuan / ton, an increase of 0.73% over the previous working day, and the market was up. Last week’s favorable factors were superimposed, and TDI price increased. At present, the news is quiet, the market trading atmosphere is light, the factory continues to support the market attitude, and the suppliers’ offer is temporarily stable and waiting for the just demand. The domestic downstream demand is weak, and the follow-up of the actual purchase is limited. The attitude of the operators is cautious, the supply and demand game in the market, and the future market pays attention to the downstream demand change. At present, the quotation range of dealers in East China is about 16800-17000 yuan / ton for domestic goods and about 17200-17500 yuan / ton for Shanghai goods.

It is expected that the short-term TDI market will be operated at a high level, and specific attention will be paid to market supply and downstream follow-up.

Price dynamics: on August 22, Sinopec North China: Qilu Petrochemical quoted 7500 yuan / ton, Shijiazhuang refining and chemical quoted 7500 yuan / ton, and Tianjin Petrochemical quoted 7500 yuan / ton;

East China: Yangzi Petrochemical offers 7500 yuan / ton;

South China: Hainan refining and chemical company offers 7500 yuan / ton;

Central China: Wuhan ethylene offers 7500 yuan / ton;

Others: Jingbo Petrochemical quoted 7700 yuan / ton, HSBC Petrochemical quoted 7550 yuan / ton, Weilian chemical quoted 7703 yuan / ton, and Xinhai Petrochemical quoted 7700 yuan / ton.

Analysis and comments: in terms of crude oil, the oil price rose slightly last Friday, but it recorded a weekly decline. At present, the market is still dragged by the strength of the US dollar and worries about the slowdown of fuel demand caused by the future economic recession.

Today, the pure benzene of Jingbo Petrochemical increased by 100 yuan / ton, the pure benzene of Weilian chemical increased by 50 yuan / ton, and the pure benzene of Xinhai Petrochemical increased by 50 yuan / ton.

Last week, pure benzene fell by a wide margin, which led to a slight increase in downstream purchasing sentiment; Last Friday, crude oil and Asian pure benzene rose slightly, providing support; Today, the downstream styrene price rises, and the pure benzene market is slightly stronger. Today, the domestic price of pure benzene is 7500-7700 yuan / ton.

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk data list of business agency, on August 15, the reference average price of domestic 85% phosphoric acid was 7920 yuan / ton, and on August 19, the reference average price of domestic 85% phosphoric acid was 8116 yuan / ton. This week, the price of domestic 85% industrial grade phosphoric acid increased by 2.48%.

2、 Market analysis

This week, phosphoric acid prices stopped falling and rebounded. Due to the strong yellow phosphorus Market of raw materials this week, the cost support is favorable, and the phosphoric acid market price rises. In Sichuan, due to power limitation and cost rise, most manufacturers suspended quotation and order receiving. As of August 19, the factory price of 85% phosphoric acid in China was 7800-8800 yuan / ton, and the market price was 8500-9500 yuan / ton. The quotation in Sichuan is suspended. The ex factory quotation of 85% phosphoric acid in Yunnan is about 7800 yuan / T, the market quotation of 85% phosphoric acid in Hubei is about 9200 yuan / T, and the market quotation of 85% phosphoric acid in Nanjing is about 9000 yuan / T.

The raw material is phosphorus ore. This week, the domestic phosphate ore market was in a high-level consolidation operation. At present, the domestic phosphate rock supply is still tight, and the spot circulation is small. Some large phosphate rocks continue to be mainly used for their own use, while some other mining enterprises continue to receive pre-sale orders. The details are discussed in a single way according to the regional volume and other factors. For some enterprises that need to purchase phosphate ore as raw material, the continuous high price of phosphate rock and tight supply have brought certain pressure to the enterprises. On August 19, the reference price of phosphate rock was 1100 yuan / ton.

The raw material is yellow phosphorus. The market price of yellow phosphorus continued to rise this week. At present, the yellow phosphorus enterprises are obviously reluctant to sell. Now they mainly issue early orders. Most yellow phosphorus manufacturers do not offer external prices for the time being, and only one is discussed. At present, power is limited in Sichuan, and yellow phosphorus enterprises are shut down. Due to the impact of the epidemic situation in Weng’an District of Guizhou, the transportation of yellow phosphorus in some areas is limited, which is more troublesome than before. Some companies in Yunnan are overhauled, and the quotation is suspended. The quotation of yellow phosphorus manufacturers under normal operation was increased. Downstream enterprises mainly focus on just needs, and take it with them. Up to now, the mainstream price of yellow phosphorus in Guizhou is about 32000 yuan / ton.

3、 Future forecast

According to phosphoric acid analysts of business association, the price of yellow phosphorus, the raw material, has risen strongly recently, and the cost of raw materials has increased, which is favorable to the cost side. Power is limited in Sichuan, and the on-site phosphoric acid supply is tightened. Under the favorable factors, it is expected that the market price of phosphoric acid will continue to rise in the short term.

According to the monitoring of the business agency, the market price trend of domestic phthalic anhydride is rising. As of the 18th, the quotation of phthalic anhydride is 8100 yuan / ton. The spot supply in the market is normal, and the sales situation is general.

The domestic market price of phthalic anhydride has increased slightly, the delivery of phthalic anhydride in the market is general, the downstream demand has not changed much in the near future, the price of upstream adjacent benzene is stable, the plasticizer market is higher, the spot supply of phthalic anhydride in the market is normal, and the market price of phthalic anhydride is affected by the downstream. The price has increased slightly. There is little change in the operation of domestic phthalic anhydride manufacturers. The operation rate of phthalic anhydride in the field is less than 60%. The spot supply of domestic phthalic anhydride is normal, the market price trend is mainly rising, and the downstream plasticizer industry is slightly rising. The actual transaction is normal. The market price of phthalic anhydride in East China has increased slightly, and the high-end transactions in the market are limited. The main negotiation price of adjacent method in East China is 8000-8200 yuan / ton, and that of naphthalene method is 7900-8000 yuan / ton; The mainstream price of the phthalic anhydride market in North China is 8100-8300 yuan / ton. The wait-and-see mentality of the phthalic anhydride market still exists, and the downstream is mainly based on demand. The recent market trend of adjacent benzene is stable, and it is expected that the market price of phthalic anhydride will rise slightly in the later period.

According to the monitoring data of business agency, on August 17, the domestic methanol in East China port was 2425 yuan / ton, down 1.34% from the previous trading day and 5.55% year-on-year. On August 17, the methanol futures of Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange fell narrowly. The main contract ma2209 closed at 2415 yuan / ton at the end of the trading day, down 42 yuan / ton compared with the closing of the previous trading day.

Crude oil continued to decline sharply, and methanol futures fell in tandem. In terms of spot, although some regions have reduced the negative production of methanol units, which is expected to boost the supply in a short period of time, and some production enterprises have narrowly increased the ex factory quotation of about 20-30 yuan / ton, the downstream demand continues to be sluggish, and the operating rate of the main downstream industries is generally low, so the demand for methanol procurement is maintained.

In the short term, the short-term domestic methanol market is dominated by shock and consolidation.

On August 16, the price trend of domestic fluorite was temporarily stable. The average price of domestic fluorite was 2768.75 yuan / ton. The on-site fluorite trading situation was general. The mines were generally started under the influence of environmental protection inspectors. The price of fluorite raw ore remained high, and the flotation cost of the concentrator was still supported. However, the downstream hydrofluoric acid market trend declined. The recent commencement of fluorite units in the North was relatively normal. In addition, the on-site supply was slightly tight, and the on-site fluorite price remained high. The mainstream price of fluorite in the field negotiation is temporarily stable. The price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Inner Mongolia is 2550-2650 yuan / ton, the mainstream price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Fujian is 2700-2750 yuan / ton, the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Henan is 2700-2750 yuan / ton, and the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Jiangxi is 2700-2800 yuan / ton. The downstream refrigerant market trend is sluggish, and the fluorite supply in the field is relatively tight. It is expected that the domestic fluorite price trend will be stable.

On August 15, the average price of TDI in East China was 16925 yuan / ton, an increase of 1.96% over the previous working day, and the market was up. The TDI unit of kostron in Germany encountered force majeure, the domestic factory’s guiding price was increased, the supplier’s attitude toward the market was obvious, the export demand increased, the offer of the goods holders increased, some of the goods holders temporarily did not offer, the domestic downstream demand was not significantly improved, a small number of just needed inquiries, and there was resistance to the high price. The operators were cautious about entering the market, and the supply and demand in the market were in a game. The future market focused on the downstream demand changes. At present, the quotation range of dealers in East China is about 16500-16700 yuan / ton for domestic goods and 17000-17200 yuan / ton for Shanghai goods.

It is expected that the short-term TDI market will be dominated by high-level operation, and specific attention will be paid to market supply and downstream follow-up.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of the trade agency’s bulk list, the aniline has softened by a wide margin this week. On August 5, the price in Shandong was 10900-11130 yuan / ton; The price of aniline in Nanjing is 11200-11600 yuan / ton; On August 12, the price in Shandong was 10100-10300 yuan / ton; The price of aniline in Nanjing is 10400-11200 yuan / ton, down 7.26% from last week and 2.31% from the same period last year.

2、 Analysis and comment

On the cost side, pure benzene: on the cost side, crude oil rose as a whole this week, which has certain support for pure benzene. Supply side: the shutdown and maintenance devices in the early stage are restarted in succession, and the market supply is expected to increase in the later stage. The import cargo increased, and the inventory of pure benzene in East China port this week increased by 7000 tons to 31000 tons compared with last week. Demand side: most of the downstream units are in deficit, the unit shutdown decreases greatly, the operating rate decreases as a whole, and the demand for pure benzene weakens. On Friday (August 12), the price of pure benzene was 7950-8200 yuan / ton (the average price was 8042 yuan / ton), which was 3.31% lower than last week and 6.94% higher than the same period last year.

Nitric acid: the domestic nitric acid dropped significantly this week. On August 5, the domestic production price of nitric acid was 2683 yuan / ton, and on August 12, the price was 2533 yuan / ton, down 5.59% from last week and 18.19% from the same period last year.

Pure benzene and nitric acid entered the downward channel from the beginning of July, and the raw material end continued to decline; The downstream demand in July and August was general, and it was just needed to follow up. The fundamentals of aniline tend to be soft, and enterprises make profit to ship, and the price has been lowered several times during the week.

3、 Future market expectation

In terms of cost, in terms of pure benzene, the operating rate of pure benzene unit is increased. In addition, the import of pure benzene in the later period is increased, and the supply of pure benzene is expected to increase in the future due to the ports or accumulated warehouses in East China. In addition, the downstream demand for pure benzene is relatively soft, the contradiction between supply and demand is prominent, the pure benzene market is concentrated, and the price is easy to fall but difficult to rise.

In terms of nitric acid, the demand for nitric acid is not good, and it is expected that the operation will be weak in the short term.

The fundamentals of aniline tend to be soft, the profit margin still exists, and the market wait-and-see is aggravated. If raw materials continue to fall, aniline may follow the weakness. Pay attention to the trend of raw materials, downstream demand and the impact of Aniline Unit dynamics on aniline price.

On August 11, the average price of TDI in East China was 15975 yuan / ton, an increase of 1.27% over the previous working day, and the market was up. The Shanghai factory’s guiding price has been raised, the supplier’s attitude of supporting the market is obvious, the offer of the goods holder has been rising, the downstream demand has not been significantly improved, and a small number of just needed inquiries have been made. Due to the general terminal market sales, the operators are cautious about entering the market, and the supply and demand game in the market. The future market will focus on the downstream demand changes. At present, the quotation range of dealers in East China is about 15500-15800 yuan / ton for domestic goods and 15800-16100 yuan / ton for Shanghai goods.

It is expected that the short-term TDI market will be dominated by stalemate and wait-and-see, and the price will be temporarily stable. Specific attention will be paid to the market supply and downstream follow-up.