At the opening of the morning, Changchun chemical and Lihua yiweiyuan, the main domestic factories, once again increased by 100 yuan / ton. Due to the increasing cost pressure after the continuous increase of phenolketones before the festival, the factories returning to the market after the festival increased, but the downstream follow-up of returning to the market after the festival was limited, and the actual volume was seriously insufficient. From the downstream point of view, the rising trend is slowing down, mainly for bisphenol A contracts. However, at present, the social circulation resources of bisphenol A are limited, and the carriers are obviously not under pressure, and they can not come out at a low level. Pay close attention to the factory offer and on-site actual orders in the short term.

The quotation of bisphenol A in the domestic mainstream market today:

Region, quotation, rise and fall

East China, 13400., 50

Shandong, 13450, 100

On September 6, zinc price rose

According to the data monitoring of the business association, the zinc price rose on September 6, and the zinc market rose. On September 6, the average market price of zinc ingots in East China was 24876 yuan / ton, up 1.49% from 24510 yuan / ton on the previous trading day, up 8.96% year-on-year.

Key points of analysis

The data released by the Shanghai Futures Exchange show that the inventory of zinc futures in Shanghai has continued to decline recently. On September 6, the inventory decreased to 49253 tons, falling to a new low in seven months. The inventory of zinc market decreased, and the momentum of zinc market increased.

Future forecast

Domestic zinc market inventory decreased, London zinc inventory increased, zinc market supply decreased slightly, and zinc price is expected to rise slightly in the future.

According to the price monitoring of business community, the average price of sulfur in East China was 1106.67 yuan / ton on September 5, down 4.87% from the previous working day, and the market was weak.

The downstream sulfuric acid market continues to operate weakly, the ammonium phosphate Market is generally traded, the downstream demand for sulfur is insufficient, and the support is limited. The sulfur refineries in Shandong mainly supply the surrounding acid plants, and the shipment is OK. The port market is weak and downward, the operators’ mentality is light, and the sulfur price falls, which has weak support for the domestic sulfur price. It is expected that the short-term sulfur market will consolidate and operate, and the price range will fluctuate. Pay attention to the follow-up situation of the downstream.

Product Name: urea

Latest price (September 2): 2400 yuan / ton

On September 2, the comprehensive price of domestic urea was temporarily stable, which was the same as that on September 1, with a year-on-year decrease of 3.23%. The price of upstream anthracite increased slightly, and the cost support was good. Agricultural demand is small, and industrial demand is gradually expanding. The start-up of enterprises in the rubber plate factory is low, mainly in the need of purchasing, and the compound fertilizer factory follows up on bargain hunting. The price of melamine rose slightly, and the enthusiasm for urea procurement was good. From the perspective of supply, the power limitation in Sichuan has ended, enterprises have gradually resumed production, and the daily output of urea is about 150000 tons.

It is expected that the domestic urea market price will rise slightly in the future, with the average market price of about 2420 yuan / ton.

Region, price (yuan / ton), rise and fall (yuan / ton)

Jiangxi Province, 9900-10300, – 300

Henan, 10000-10300, – 300

Inner Mongolia, 9700-10000, – 300

Shandong, 9800-10200, – 300

Fujian, 9800-10200, – 300

On September 1, the mainstream price of domestic anhydrous hydrofluoric acid manufacturers was 9800-10200 yuan / ton, and the factory price trend of the on-site merchants declined slightly. The operating rate of domestic hydrofluoric acid manufacturers did not change much, the on-site supply was normal, and the fluorite price was slightly higher recently. However, the downstream refrigerant market remained low, the on-site procurement was not active, and the sulfuric acid price dropped sharply. In a comprehensive view, it is expected that the on-site hydrofluoric acid price will decline in the later period.

According to the data of business agency, on August 31, the average early price of silver market was 4190 yuan / kg, down 1.20% on a daily basis. Compared with the average early price of spot market at the beginning of the month (August 1), it was 4432.67 yuan / kg, down 5.47%; Compared with the average price of 4770 yuan / kg in the spot market at the beginning of the year (January 1), the decrease was 12.16%.

On August 31, the spot market price of gold was 386.89 yuan / g, down 0.74% on a daily basis, up 1.30% from the early average price of 381.93 yuan / g in the spot market at the beginning of the month (August 1); Compared with the average price of the spot market at the beginning of the year (January 1) at 372.37 yuan / kg, an increase of 3.90%.

Comparison of price trends of precious metals (gold and silver) in recent 1 year

From the long-term perspective, the price trend of precious metals tends to be similar, the long-term trend is basically the same, and the amplitude is slightly different. In August, silver fell deeply, and the gold price was relatively stable.

Price trend of precious metals and crude oil

Macro policy

1. Domestic policy

The domestic LPR was lowered, and the domestic macro policy was relatively stable.

2. International policy

The hawkish probability of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate increase in September increased, the European economy was hit hard by energy, and the manufacturing PMI index of Germany and France in August continued to be lower than the 50th percentile, which is not optimistic.

Future forecast

Hawkish remarks on US monetary policy are frequent, and the expectation of interest rate increase in September rises. The expectation of interest rate increase in Europe and the United States will suppress the recent precious metal price, and it is expected that the precious metal price will be weak in the short term.

On the 30th, the domestic NMP market was reorganized and operated. The average price of the domestic market was stable at 23500 yuan / ton, and the market was willing to support the price. The price of bulk water of mainstream factories was around 25000-26000 yuan / ton, and the actual transaction price was mainly negotiated. The downstream just needs to purchase, the demand follow-up is general, and the NMP price rise is weak.

Upstream: BDO market is weak. At present, the support of the supply side is relatively strong, and the supplier’s intention to defend the price is mainly. However, the downstream demand performance is general. Small orders are just needed but the price is negotiated. The overall market fluctuation is limited. The BDO market in East China is operating on a wait-and-see basis. Although the support of the supply side is strengthened, the supplier’s price keeping mentality continues. However, the downstream of the terminal maintains the contract follow-up, the spot purchase is cautious, and the actual single transaction is limited.

The NMP analyst of business agency believes that the cost and price consolidation trend is general, and the downstream demand is general. It is expected that the NMP market will be dominated by consolidation and operation in the near future.

According to the nickel price monitoring of business agency, on the 29th, the average price of nickel spot market was 172100 yuan / ton, down 4.36% from the previous trading day and up 20.56% year-on-year.

Today, the nickel price fell sharply, and the next week, lunni closed down 1.09%. After US Federal Reserve Chairman Powell hinted that the US Federal Reserve would further raise interest rates to curb inflation, traders weighed the signs of slowing economic growth, and metals generally fell. Pure nickel maintains normal production schedule, and the operating rate of ferronickel hovers at a low level. However, the terminal demand is sluggish, and both iron and steel plants suffer losses. In the downstream stainless steel, the scale of production reduction has expanded. Most traders maintain a wait-and-see attitude, and most of the actual transactions are just needed purchases. The fundamentals of nickel are weak, and the expected rise in interest rate will further suppress the price. It is expected that the nickel price will fluctuate at a low level.

This week (August 19-august 26), the polybutadiene rubber market rebounded slightly. According to the monitoring of the business agency, as of August 26, the domestic CIS polybutadiene rubber price was 12580 yuan / ton, a slight increase of 0.24% over the 12550 yuan / ton last Friday. Since June, polybutadiene rubber has been falling all the way to the low level of the year in the middle of August. Then, the market was in a wait-and-see state. With the petrochemical manufacturers’ slight increase in the factory price last week, many merchants’ offers rose slightly. However, from the perspective of industrial chain fundamentals, the downstream demand is still low, and the cost remains low, and the market is still weak; This week, the ex factory price of Shunding rubber of Sinopec Sales Company was stable. As of the 26th, the ex factory price of Qilu Shunding of Sinopec North China sales company was 12400 yuan / ton.

At present, the domestic CIS polybutadiene rubber plant is operating at a high level, and the supply side is expected to continue to be loose.

This week (8.19-8.26), the butadiene market fell slightly, and the cost of butadiene rubber continued to weaken. According to the monitoring of business agency, as of August 26, the price of butadiene was 7795 yuan / ton, down 1.03% from 7876 yuan / ton last Friday.

This week, the natural rubber market fluctuated and consolidated, and the support for cis-polybutadiene rubber was not strong. According to the monitoring of business agency, as of August 26, the price of natural rubber was 12044 yuan / ton, down 0.13% from 12060 yuan / ton last Friday.

The downstream tire starts at a low level, with the half steel tire starting at around 65%, and the full steel tire starting at around 55%. The demand for rubber is weak, and the market deals are mainly small.

Future forecast: business analysts believe that the raw material butadiene is running at a low level and the natural rubber price is fluctuating at a low level; The new production of Qixiang and the restart of Maoming Petrochemical increased the supply side pressure in August. It is comprehensively expected that the price of CIS polybutadiene rubber will continue to be weak in the later period.

According to the price monitoring of business agency, on August 25, the average price of sulfur in East China was 1170.00 yuan / ton, which was the same as that of the previous working day. The market situation was on the sidelines.

The downstream sulfuric acid market continues to operate in a weak state, with limited demand for sulfur, which needs to be followed up. The shipment of sulfur refineries in Shandong Province is acceptable. According to their own shipment situation, the quotation of each manufacturer is temporarily stable, and the market situation in the port is sorted up. The domestic sulfur bidding rise is good for the port market, and the carriers are reluctant to sell their products with a wait-and-see attitude. It is expected that the domestic sulfur market will be sorted out and operated, and the price trend will be increased in a narrow range, Specific attention shall be paid to downstream follow-up.