This week (2.9-2.14), the nickel market moved downwards and fluctuated at a low level. According to the monitoring of nickel prices by Shengyi Society, on February 14th, spot nickel was reported at 125650 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 2.37%.

Macroscopically: Disruption of tariff policies. On February 10th, the United States announced a 25% tariff on steel and aluminum imports to the United States, causing an increase in multi metal prices but not boosting nickel prices.

Supply side: It is expected that China’s refined nickel production in February will be 35000 tons, an increase of 4.1% month on month and 43.1% year-on-year. In addition, new projects such as Zhongwei Group are gradually climbing production, and the pattern of nickel surplus will continue. Domestic and international inventory continues to accumulate. On February 14th, the inventory of Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts was 29117 tons, a decrease of 348 tons during the week; On February 14th, LME nickel inventory was 180900 tons, an increase of 5190 tons for the week.

Demand side: Insufficient consumption growth in the short term, lower than expected resumption of work and procurement by downstream enterprises, or intensified price trend pressure, and wait-and-see sentiment may continue. Steel mills continue to deliver, but demand is weak and inventory backlog has slightly increased. On February 14th, the reference price of stainless steel in Shengyi Society was 13180 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.38% from the beginning of the month, with a narrow range of fluctuations.

Market forecast: The pattern of nickel surplus continues, demand is insufficient, macro sentiment is disturbed, and it is expected that nickel prices will fluctuate in the low range.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the average price of LLDPE (7042) was 8295 yuan/ton on February 6th and 8258 yuan/ton on February 13th, with a price drop of 0.44% during this period. LDPE (2426H) had an average price of 9900 yuan/ton on February 6th and 10100 yuan/ton on February 13th, with a price increase of 2.02% during this period. HDPE (2426H) had an average price of 8382 yuan/ton on February 6th and 8375 yuan/ton on February 13th, with a price drop of 0.09% during this period.

After the year, the trend of the polyethylene market has fluctuated, with linear products running weakly, high-pressure products trending strongly, and low-pressure products fluctuating and adjusting, with little change. The pressure on the supply side is still present, with an increase in spot goods on the market. Manufacturers and traders are mainly reducing prices for shipments, but news of some equipment being converted and shut down has led to a tentative increase in the prices of high-pressure products. After the holiday, downstream production resumed slowly, order follow-up was limited, and demand side support was limited. US commercial crude oil inventories continue to rise, international oil prices have fallen, and cost support has weakened.

In February, there were relatively few maintenance visits to the polyethylene plant, mainly short-term minor repairs. The overall supply is expected to remain high, and there are plans for commissioning and production of the new plant, ensuring sufficient supply; Starting from mid to late February, with the gradual increase in downstream factory operating rates, demand will gradually be released, and the supply growth rate may exceed the demand growth rate. In the short term, it is expected that polyethylene will mainly operate weakly due to fluctuations.

Recently (2.4-2.11), the market for butadiene rubber has been weak and slightly declining. According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of February 11, the market price of butadiene rubber in East China was 14830 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.13% from the pre holiday price of 15000 yuan/ton. The price of raw material butadiene has been adjusted narrowly, and the cost of butadiene rubber is still supported; Shunding rubber production continues to decline, with less pressure on the supply side; Downstream construction is still at a low level after the holiday. Recently, the supply prices of Shunding rubber suppliers have remained stable, and there has been a weak adjustment in merchant offers.

Recently (2.4-2.11), the price of butadiene has been adjusted narrowly, and the cost of butadiene rubber continues to be supported. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of February 11th, the price of butadiene was 12637 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.20% from the pre holiday price of 12662 yuan/ton.

Recently (2.4-2.11), the construction of domestic butadiene rubber plants has remained at a low level, with overall construction around 6.20%.

Demand side: After the Spring Festival, downstream tire production has been low, and the atmosphere of terminal buying is flat, resulting in relatively light demand for butadiene rubber.

Market forecast: From a fundamental perspective, analysts from Shengyi Society believe that the price of raw material butadiene will stabilize at a high level, and the cost of butadiene rubber will continue to be strongly supported; Downstream production is low after the holiday, and market transactions remain weak; Shunding rubber production remains at a low level, but with the restart of the Haopu unit and the trial run of the new unit at Yulong Petrochemical after the holiday, the supply side is expected to increase in the later period. Overall, under the influence of demand and supply, it is expected that the Shunding rubber market will consolidate weakly at a high level in the later period.

1、 Market situation

Recently, the market price of melamine has shown some stability and a slight upward trend. On the one hand, this is because although the equipment that undergoes maintenance every ten days has been restarted one after another, the influx of goods into the market has led to an increase in market supply, which takes time. On the other hand, the capacity utilization rate in Shanxi and Hebei regions has always been at a low level, and the overall supply of northern enterprises is not high. Therefore, overall, melamine companies have a strong willingness to raise prices, and prices are stable while exploring price increases. As of February 11th, the benchmark price of melamine in Shengyi Society was 6237.50 yuan/ton, an increase of -0.11% compared to the beginning of this month (6230.00 yuan/ton).

2、 Influencing factors

1. Raw material cost: Recently, there has been a slight increase in urea prices, with some factories in certain regions raising their quotes by 10-20 yuan/ton. However, the continuous follow-up of demand remains a key factor in determining price trends.

2. Market demand: The demand for melamine in downstream industries such as sheet metal and coatings is an important factor affecting market prices. With the recovery of the economy and the improvement of people’s living standards, the demand for melamine in these industries may gradually increase, thereby driving up market prices. Especially with the recovery of the real estate, construction, and furniture industries, the apparent demand for melamine has rebounded, further supporting market prices.

3. Supply situation: The production capacity of melamine is relatively stable, and production enterprises in the industry usually adjust their production scale based on market demand and raw material costs. In a relatively stable supply situation, market prices are more likely to remain stable. However, with the strengthening of environmental policies and the adjustment of production capacity structure, some old and outdated production capacity has been eliminated, and the newly added capacity is mostly large-scale production facilities with low energy consumption and low pollution, which may also have a certain impact on market prices.

3、 Future prospects

Short term (1-2 months): The market may experience narrow fluctuations under the game of cost and weak demand, with a slight upward shift in the price center of gravity, but insufficient motivation to break through the previous high.

Mid term (3-6 months): Attention should be paid to the effectiveness of real estate policy implementation and the sustainability of the export market. If domestic demand significantly recovers or exports increase, prices may experience a temporary rebound; On the contrary, there may be a pressure callback.

Therefore, enterprises need to closely monitor market dynamics and policy changes, formulate reasonable business strategies to cope with potential market risks and seize development opportunities. Meanwhile, increasing R&D investment and technological innovation is also an important way to enhance the competitiveness of enterprises.

In summary, the recent trend of stable and rising melamine market is the result of multiple factors working together. In the future, with the increase of market demand and the integration and upgrading within the industry, the melamine market is expected to continue to maintain stable growth.

After the holiday, the weekly settlement price of caprolactam, an upstream raw material for nylon yarn, increased, and the market for high-speed spinning of nylon PA6 chips saw a narrow rise, with increased cost support; The operating rate of most nylon filament manufacturers’ equipment is still at a low level, and the on-site supply continues to decrease. The inventory levels of various manufacturers have slightly increased, and the performance of the supply side is average; The downstream factories plan to resume work slightly later, and some manufacturers mainly execute early orders, with low enthusiasm for replenishment and no significant improvement in demand. Overall, the upstream raw material market continues to rise, with decent cost support. Nylon filament and downstream manufacturers are mostly on vacation, with low trading activity in the market, resulting in a slight increase in nylon filament market prices.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the market price of nylon filament fell weakly after the holiday. As of February 9, 2025, the price of nylon filament DTY (premium product; 70D/24F) in Jiangsu Province is 16660 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton or 0.60% compared to the pre holiday price; Nylon POY (premium product; 86D/24F) is priced at 14275 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton or 0.71% from the pre holiday price. The price of nylon FDY (premium product: 40D/12F) is reported at 17300 yuan/ton, an increase of 75 yuan/ton or 0.44% compared to the pre holiday price.

The center of gravity of raw materials is increasing

In terms of cost, on February 10th, Sinopec’s high-end caprolactam weekly settlement price was implemented at 11450 yuan/ton (interest free acceptance for liquid superior products in June), an increase of 150 yuan/ton compared to the previous week’s settlement price., The market price trend of high-speed spun nylon PA6 chips is upward, and the price center of raw materials in the market has increased during the week, providing certain favorable support for the nylon filament market.

Supply and demand: The operating rate of most nylon filament manufacturers’ equipment is still at a low level, and currently the nylon filament market is operating at around 5.90%. The on-site supply continues to decrease, and the inventory levels of various manufacturers have slightly increased. The performance of the supply side is average; The downstream factories plan to resume work slightly later, and some manufacturers mainly execute early orders, with low enthusiasm for replenishment and no significant improvement in demand. Overall, the upstream raw material market continues to rise, and the cost side support is still acceptable. Nylon filament and downstream manufacturers are mostly on vacation, and the trading activity in the market is not high.

Future forecast

Cost aspect: In terms of caprolactam, the raw material pure benzene has been consolidated at a high level, and the market supply of caprolactam is normal. Downstream demand follow-up is the main trend, and some operators have a positive attitude. It is expected that the market price of caprolactam will steadily rise in the short term.

Supply and demand side: With the end of the holiday, nylon filament manufacturers may gradually resume work, and there is a possibility of a gradual increase in on-site supply. It is expected that the supply of nylon filament in the market will increase narrowly in the short term; The downstream market plans to resume work relatively late, which limits the increase in demand for nylon filament market and makes it difficult for the demand side to show significant improvement. Therefore, it is expected that the demand side support for short fiber nylon filament market will be insufficient.

Overall, the short-term nylon filament raw material caprolactam spot market and PA6 slicing market may continue to rise, with cost support remaining. Downstream manufacturers may gradually resume work and purchase according to demand. Business analysts predict that the short-term nylon filament market price will be cautiously upward, with an expected increase of 100-300 yuan/ton.

This week (February 2-8, 2025), the price center of the adhesive short fiber market has slightly increased. As of February 8th, the average market price of viscose staple fiber was 13660 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton or 0.74% compared to the pre holiday price. The upstream raw material market prices remain firm, with cost support remaining. The inventory level in the market is not high, and coupled with the increasing operating load of downstream yarn factories, businesses have sufficient confidence in the future. Some adhesive short fiber manufacturers have raised their prices, resulting in an increase in high priced sources in the market and a slight increase in adhesive short fiber market prices.

In terms of cost, there has been little change in the market price of the main raw material for viscose staple fiber dissolution slurry this week, while the market price of auxiliary liquid alkali has risen at a high level. The market price of sulfuric acid has fallen narrowly, and the center of gravity of the raw material market price has shifted upward. The average production cost of viscose staple fiber has slightly increased.

Supply and demand: From the supply side perspective, there is little fluctuation in the supply of adhesive short fibers in the market after the new year, and the inventory levels of various manufacturers are not high. There is currently no sales pressure, and the supply side provides some upward momentum for the market. The operating rate of downstream cotton yarn market is not high, and prices are mainly stagnant. Downstream yarn manufacturers plan to resume work slightly later. Although adhesive short fiber manufacturers have raised their quotes and increased on-site inquiries, actual transactions are limited and demand side performance is poor.

Market forecast:

The main material dissolution slurry market and auxiliary material liquid alkali market may remain strong in price, while the sulfuric acid market may still decline. It is expected that the cost of adhesive short fibers will remain stable next week. In the short term, the adhesive short fiber market is expected to operate stably, with little fluctuation in industry supply and low inventory levels on site, and there is currently no significant inventory pressure. Some downstream yarn factories mainly fulfill early orders and replenish urgently needed goods, while others plan to resume work later, making it difficult for the demand for adhesive short fibers to increase significantly in the market, and the demand side performance is average. Business analysts predict that the domestic adhesive short fiber market will remain stable with small fluctuations next week, with prices expected to be around 13600-13800 yuan/ton for acceptance.

1、 Market price overview

According to the latest market trends, the market price of melamine showed a slight downward trend after the holiday. There are differences in the prices of melamine from different brands and origins, but overall they reflect the characteristic of stable and decreasing market prices. For example, some traders provide quotes for melamine in Shandong region, some as high as 7100 yuan/ton, while others are as low as 5500 yuan/ton, but most quotes are concentrated between 6300 yuan and 7000 yuan/ton. As of February 7th, the benchmark price of melamine in Shengyi Society was 6200.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of -0.48% compared to the beginning of this month (6230.00 yuan/ton).

2、 Market supply and demand relationship

1. Supply side: The supply of melamine in the market is relatively stable, but the deployment of new production capacity and inventory adjustment strategies have had a certain impact on market prices. The supply and demand pressure in the upstream raw material urea market is relatively high, with daily production maintained at a high level, and new facilities being put into operation one after another, which to some extent suppresses the price of urea and thus affects the production cost of melamine.

2. Demand side: The market demand for melamine is relatively weak. Although downstream industries such as sheet metal and coatings have a certain demand for melamine, overall growth is weak. In addition, the insufficient purchasing power of fertilizer distributors and low market activity have also led to a negative attitude from the demand side.

3、 Market Trend Analysis

1. Short term trend: In the short term, the market price of melamine may continue to maintain a stable and slightly declining trend. The price fluctuations in the raw material urea market, the introduction of new production capacity, and changes in downstream demand will all have an impact on market prices.

2. Long term trend: In the long run, the trend of the melamine market will be influenced by various factors. With the development of the economy and the improvement of residents’ living standards, the demand for melamine in downstream industries may change. Meanwhile, fluctuations in the raw material market, policy guidance, and overall industry capacity will have a profound impact on market prices.

In summary, the trend of stable and slightly decreasing prices in the melamine market after the holiday is the result of multiple factors working together. Enterprises should closely monitor market trends, strengthen inventory management, optimize product structure, and look forward to policy guidance to promote the healthy development of the market.

Market Overview: After the holiday, the domestic acrylonitrile spot market prices continued to rise. During the Spring Festival, the entire Lihua Yi plant was shut down for maintenance, and the industry’s capacity utilization rate once again declined. Spot resources remained tight, and major manufacturers continued to push up prices. Intermediaries were also reluctant to sell at high prices, and some traders had no offers due to shortages. As of February 7th, the mainstream negotiation for container self pickup in East China ports is around 11800-12000 yuan/ton, and the negotiation for short distance delivery in Shandong market is around 11700-11900 yuan/ton.

Supply shortage: The 260000 ton/year acrylonitrile unit of Lihua Yilijin Refining and Chemical will be shut down for maintenance for one month starting from February 1st, and is scheduled to resume by the end of February or early March; In addition, there is still a maintenance plan to maintain low load operation in February, and coupled with the lack of specific start-up time for the new Zhenhai Refining and Chemical Plant, the tight supply is still driving the market to explore further. There is no pressure on industry inventory, and currently contract supply is the main source. Spot resources continue to be scarce, and the shortage situation is difficult to improve in the short term.

Stable demand: Although the three main downstream industries of acrylonitrile are currently in a loss making state, and most of the inventory has been completed before the Spring Festival, production reduction and shutdown are relatively limited, so the demand side is still relatively stable.

Cost wise: International oil prices continue to decline, which is bearish for the market sentiment. And currently, downstream centralized replenishment has ended, and enterprise shipments are tending to be flat, which has a certain degree of suppression on price trends. As of February 6th, the market price of propylene in Shandong is 6980 yuan/ton, with average cost support.

Market forecast: Overall, the domestic acrylonitrile market remains strong at a high level, with no pressure on industry inventory. In the short term, spot resources are still tight, and major manufacturers continue to raise prices. However, post holiday buying has not fully recovered, and downstream users are also resistant to high raw material prices, which also poses resistance to market growth.

After the holiday, the acrylic acid market showed a quiet and stable operating trend. As of February 6th, the benchmark price of acrylic acid in Shengyi Society is 7725.00 yuan/ton, which is the same as the beginning of this month.

1、 Market quotation and transaction situation

Returning after the holiday, the market price of acrylic acid is mostly stable with a moderate upward trend. Although the follow-up of new orders has slowed down compared to the previous period, the manufacturer’s mentality is firm, and market demand is holding a moderate purchase at low prices.

In the case of good transactions in the low-end supply of goods in the market, manufacturers tend to execute pre-sale orders, and some companies even stop quoting, creating a clear upward trend in the market.

2、 Supply side

After the holiday, some acrylic acid factories were in a state of shutdown and maintenance, resulting in a shortage of spot supply. This supply side contraction has to some extent offset the pressure of insufficient demand and pushed the price of acrylic acid to remain stable and strong.

With the resumption of some facilities, the expected utilization rate of acrylic acid production capacity is expected to slightly increase, and market supply is expected to be supplemented. However, due to the factory’s low expectations for market volume and the tight supply of goods in some regions such as southern China, the sales pressure on holders may not be significant.

3、 Demand side

The downstream industry mainly purchases acrylic raw materials for immediate needs and has a general intention to accept high priced goods. This has led to limited actual demand growth and a relatively cautious market trading atmosphere.

With the gradual resumption of work in downstream industries and further recovery of demand, it is expected to have a certain alleviating effect on the supply-demand imbalance in the acrylic acid market. However, until demand fully recovers, the market will still maintain a certain wait-and-see attitude.

4、 Cost and Profit

Recently, the price of raw material propylene has fluctuated within a narrow range, which has limited impact on the cost fluctuations of acrylic acid. As of February 6th, the benchmark price of propylene in Shengyi Society was 6943.25 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.76% compared to the beginning of this month (6823.25 yuan/ton).

With the continuous rise in acrylic acid prices, the industry’s profitability level continues to rebound. However, the improvement of profitability still needs to pay attention to changes in factors such as raw material prices, supply and demand relationships, and market competition.

5、 Future prospects

Overall, the post holiday sentiment in the acrylic acid market is stable but slightly strong, with rising prices but cautious trading atmosphere. With the gradual resumption of work on the supply side and further recovery of downstream demand, the market supply-demand contradiction is expected to be alleviated.

However, until demand fully recovers, the market will still maintain a certain wait-and-see attitude. Therefore, it is recommended that acrylic acid industry enterprises closely monitor market dynamics and supply and demand changes, and reasonably arrange production and sales plans to cope with market fluctuations.

In summary, after the holiday, the atmosphere in the acrylic acid market is quiet but shows a stable to strong trend. Against the backdrop of supply side contraction, gradual recovery of demand side, and limited fluctuations in cost side, the acrylic acid market will maintain a certain upward momentum, but the trading atmosphere is relatively cautious.

In January 2025, the market price of acrylonitrile will significantly increase. The price surged sharply in the first week of the month, and there are currently few market quotes, only sporadic merchants offering high prices. The manufacturer has tightened spot sales. The rapid increase in prices this time is a rare occurrence in recent years, which has led some market participants to believe that the market situation has returned to the past.

There are several reasons for the price increase this time. Supply is tight, and a acrylonitrile production line has been shut down for maintenance due to a malfunction, resulting in an overall operating rate of 50%. The market supply has decreased, and prices in Shandong have increased one after another. In terms of the East China market, the restart of Zhejiang Petrochemical has been delayed, and Sinopec East China has had to purchase spot acrylonitrile to fill the gap, thereby reducing market inventory.

Northbound goods are moving southward, and acrylonitrile is supplemented by the northern market in the eastern and southern markets, resulting in a corresponding increase in prices in the relatively low Shandong market. As a result, both Haijiang and Korur in Shandong have reduced their spot supply, leading to price increases. At the same time, some manufacturers have adjusted their pre-sale pricing systems, improved price flexibility, and paved the way for gradual price increases.

In addition, transportation delays in overseas markets and suppliers in neighboring regions have reduced the supply of imported goods, making it difficult to meet downstream demand in the domestic market. In addition, the delayed restart of ZRCC company has led to an increase in market expectations.

In terms of demand, some December equipment maintenance manufacturers restarted in January, and the sharp rise in raw material prices has put acrylic fiber manufacturers in a difficult situation, facing the contradiction between losses and replenishing inventory. In addition, with the shutdown of downstream yarn mills, the demand for acrylic fiber is approaching zero. In 2025, the government announced the continuation of the subsidy program for car and home appliances trade in, which will stimulate the production willingness of ABS market manufacturers and increase their enthusiasm for stocking up.

Overall, the price increase this time is driven by various supply and demand factors, but it is still uncertain whether its upward trend can continue. The increase in capacity utilization driven by profit recovery may limit further price increases.