1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the average price of ammonium sulfate in the domestic market on September 24th was 903 yuan/ton, which is 1.09% lower than the average price of 913 yuan/ton on September 18th.

2、 Market analysis

Recently, the price of ammonium sulfate in the domestic market has slightly decreased. The profits of coking enterprises have increased, the operating rate has remained stable, and the operating rate at the domestic level has decreased. The demand for downstream stocking before the holiday is still there, but market inquiries have decreased, and many are adopting a wait-and-see attitude. The export sector is mainly supported by essential needs, and there is currently no significant improvement in the market. As of September 24th, the mainstream ex factory quotation for coking grade ammonium sulfate in Shandong region is around 890 yuan/ton. Domestic grade ammonium sulfate, the mainstream ex factory quotation in Shandong region is around 890-930 yuan/ton.

3、 Future forecast

An ammonium sulfate analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the ammonium sulfate market has recently experienced a narrow downward trend, and the overall trend is weak. The enthusiasm for downstream stocking before the holiday is not high, and the market transaction atmosphere is not good. It is expected that in the short term, the domestic ammonium sulfate market price will be weak and mainly operated through consolidation.

Product Name: Pure Benzene (Petroleum Benzene)

Latest price: On September 23rd, the average market price was 8326.33 yuan/ton.

Analysis: Today, domestic pure benzene prices have been lowered, and the atmosphere of on-site negotiations is currently average. On Monday, the East China Port had a stock of 30000 tons. Last week’s typhoon affected the arrival of goods, and the port was in a state of destocking. The crude oil market is mainly volatile, with limited short-term impact on the rise of pure benzene. As the National Day holiday approaches, mountain refineries are actively stocking up and offering discounts for shipments. Prediction: It is expected that the pure benzene market will continue to operate weakly in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic PTA spot price stopped falling and stabilized this week (September 16-20). As of September 20, the average PTA spot price in East China was 4811 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.39% from the beginning of the week. The international oil price trend is relatively strong, providing upward support for PTA costs. In addition, the macroeconomic sentiment has improved, and the general rise in commodity markets has triggered resonance. Due to the unplanned shutdown of multiple PTA plants, prices have stopped falling and rebounded slightly.

Specifically, the decline in the US dollar exchange rate supports the oil futures market, coupled with the escalation of tensions in the Middle East and the rebound of crude oil. As of September 19th, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $71.16 per barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was $74.01 per barrel.

On the supply side, next week a 2.2 million ton PTA short-term shutdown unit will restart in the East China region, another 1.2 million ton PTA unit will restart, and a 1 million ton PTA short-term shutdown unit in the Southwest will restart. The current industry operating rate is around 80%, and it is expected that the supply will increase in the future. The operating rate will further increase, and the spot market supply is still abundant.

From a downstream perspective, the poor quality of “Golden Nine” and the sluggish demand during peak seasons have led to poor market confidence, causing the polyester industry to experience a slight decline in production to around 85%. The terminal market is in a lukewarm state, with a focus on maintaining essential needs for raw material procurement. Some small terminal enterprises still face financial pressure. The mainstream polyester staple fiber factories have experienced short shutdowns due to weather conditions, which has tightened the liquidity of some brand sources and boosted the market.

Business analysts believe that macroeconomic interest rate cuts provide support for the oil market, and in the short term, oil prices may fluctuate and remain stable, while cost support is still acceptable. Our own supply side will increase next week, but downstream polyester production is slowly increasing, and demand continues to improve, helping to improve PTA fundamentals. Overall, PTA prices are expected to remain strong in the short term.

In the current cycle (20240912-20240919), with good low-end supply transactions in the acrylic acid market, prices continue to rise steadily, and the atmosphere in the market is good. Although the follow-up of new orders has slowed down compared to the previous period, the mentality of manufacturers is strong, and market demand is multi-dimensional, holding a moderate purchase at low prices. As of September 18th, the benchmark price of acrylic acid in Shengyi Society was 6775.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.37% compared to the beginning of this month (6750.00 yuan/ton).

In terms of cost

This week, the raw material propylene fluctuated within a narrow range, and the cost of acrylic acid did not fluctuate significantly. With the continuous rise in acrylic acid prices, the industry’s profitability continued to rebound. As of September 18th, the reference price of propylene was 6750.75, a decrease of 3.12% compared to September 1st (6968.25). At present, it is expected that there will be a narrow adjustment in the price of propylene market in the short term, but it is still necessary to closely monitor the follow-up of downstream demand in the later stage.

In terms of demand

The price of butyl acrylate has decreased. This week, the butyl acrylate market has slightly declined, and the trading atmosphere in the market is quiet. Downstream manufacturers have a heavy wait-and-see attitude, and transactions are mainly dominated by first-time contract holders. The focus of butyl acrylate quotations is gradually shifting downwards, and upstream cost support is also limited. In the short term, it is expected that the butyl acrylate market will remain stable and weak.

In summary, the acrylic acid market is maintaining a stable operation, while the upstream acrylic acid market is fluctuating within a range. The listed prices of production enterprises are fluctuating, and the listed prices of acrylic acid manufacturers are temporarily stable. The trading atmosphere on the market is flat, and the overall production capacity is at a low level with limited fluctuations. The downstream market’s enthusiasm for receiving goods needs to be improved, and long-term contracts are mainly executed. The short-term market may continue to consolidate and operate.

According to the data from the commodity market analysis system of the business community, after the Mid-Autumn Festival, the terminal demand fell, and the hydrogen peroxide market fell. On September 16th, the average market price of hydrogen peroxide was 816 yuan/ton, and on September 19th, the average market price of hydrogen peroxide was 793 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.86% in price.

Terminal demand drops, hydrogen peroxide market declines

After the Mid-Autumn Festival, the rigid demand of the terminal will return next time, the water volume of hydrogen peroxide purchased by the manufacturer will decline, and the bad news will suppress. The hydrogen peroxide market will decline, and the overall quotation will be 700-800 yuan/ton. On September 19th, the average market price of hydrogen peroxide in Shandong region was around 700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton, while the average market price of hydrogen peroxide in Hebei region was 720 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan/ton; The average price of hydrogen peroxide in the Anhui region is around 880 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 20 yuan/ton; The average price of hydrogen peroxide in the Fujian region is 1100 yuan/ton, and the market is stable.

Business Society Chemical Analysts believe that at the end of September, the demand for hydrogen peroxide terminals was weak, and the hydrogen peroxide market will continue to weaken in the future.

1、 Price trend

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of soda ash has decreased after the holiday. As of September 18th, the average market price of soda ash was 1706 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan/ton compared to the pre holiday price of 1736 yuan/ton on September 14th, a decrease of 1.73%, and a decrease of 6.26% compared to the previous month.

2、 Market analysis

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the soda ash market has been consolidating and declining after the holiday. On the supply side, the equipment of maintenance enterprises is gradually recovering, the utilization rate of soda ash production capacity has been improved, the market supply of goods has increased, and the inventory pressure of manufacturers is relatively high; On the demand side, there is an expectation of cold repair in the terminal market. The downstream glass industry mainly consumes inventory, resulting in insufficient demand for soda ash. The market supply is strong and demand is weak, leading to a weak downward trend in soda ash prices. On September 18th, the price of soda ash in East China was lowered, and the mainstream market price for light soda ash was around 1400-1650 yuan/ton; The price of soda ash in Central China has been lowered, and the mainstream market price for light soda ash is around 1350-1550 yuan/ton.

On the demand side: According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of glass continues to decline. On September 18th, the market average price was 14.10 yuan/square meter, a decrease of 0.70% compared to the market average price of 14.20 yuan/square meter on September 14th. The glass market has sufficient inventory, low downstream purchasing enthusiasm, poor market trading, obvious bearish sentiment in the market, and glass prices continue to operate weakly.

Future forecast: Currently, the operating rate of domestic soda ash plants is relatively high, and the inventory of spot soda ash plants is sufficient. The downstream glass industry continues to be weak, with insufficient demand support. The soda ash market trading is average, and the atmosphere in the market is wait-and-see. It is expected that soda ash will remain weak and stable in the short term, depending on downstream market demand.

This week (9.9-9.14), the domestic price of ethyl acetate first fell and then rose. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of the 14th, the price of ethyl acetate was 6003.33 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.22% compared to the price of 6016.67 yuan/ton on September 9th. The main reason is insufficient cost support, limited downstream demand, and fluctuations in equipment of some supply side enterprises, resulting in the consolidation and operation of ethyl acetate prices.

Market analysis: This week’s ethyl acetate market is consolidating weakly. On the raw material side, the stabilization of acetic acid prices is the main factor, with insufficient cost support and slow downstream inventory consumption. The enthusiasm for entering the market is not high, and the price of ethyl ester was weakly lowered at the beginning of the week; Afterwards, the main factories in Shandong stopped production, reducing the supply of goods in the market. The supply side news was positive, and the price of ethyl acetate rose sharply. However, the market trading atmosphere was poor, and the increase in ethyl acetate was limited.

Looking at the future market, the upstream acetic acid market for ethyl acetate is stable, with limited cost support and insufficient upward momentum for ethyl acetate; On the supply side, the Yankuang plant will resume operation next week, with an increase in capacity utilization, which will have a negative impact on the ethyl ester market; Downstream demand is weak and market support is weak. It is expected that the price of ethyl acetate will be weakly adjusted in the later period. Please pay attention to the changes in the upstream market and the follow-up situation in the downstream.

This week, the price of isooctanol has stopped falling and rebounded

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of September 12th, the price of isooctanol was 7916.67 yuan/ton, which rebounded and increased by 1.50% compared to the price of 7800 yuan/ton on September 9th; Compared to September 1st at the beginning of the month, the price of isooctanol was 7983.33 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.83%. This week, the price of isooctanol rebounded and rose. This week, the production of isooctanol units has gradually resumed, with an increase in isooctanol supply, an increase in downstream plasticizer DOP gross profit, an increase in DOP operating rate, an increase in demand for isooctanol, a double increase in isooctanol supply and demand, and a rebound in isooctanol prices.

Expected increase in isooctanol supply

In early September, there were many equipment shutdowns in isooctanol enterprises, and the original plan to restart isooctanol units in North China at the end of August was postponed to mid September. Several isooctanol enterprises stopped for maintenance in early September and are expected to resume operations in mid September. With the completion of the maintenance of the isooctanol equipment and the resumption of work, the expected supply of isooctanol in the future has increased, and there is still downward pressure on the price of isooctanol.

Expected increase in downstream plasticizer DOP start-up

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of September 12th, the price of plasticizer DOP was 8501.25 yuan/ton, which rebounded and increased by 0.44% compared to the DOP price of 8463.75 yuan/ton on September 9th; Compared to the DOP price of 8726.25 yuan/ton on September 1st, it has decreased by 2.58%. DOP prices rebounded and rose this week. The price of isooctanol continues to decline, the profit margin of plasticizer equipment expands, and the gross profit of downstream DOP products increases compared to August. Driven by profits, downstream plasticizer companies are expected to increase their operating rates, leading to an increase in demand for isooctanol.

Future expectations

According to the data analyst of Business Society’s octanol product, the supply and demand of isooctanol market increased in September. In terms of supply, the number of isooctanol manufacturers operating has increased, leading to an increase in isooctanol supply; In terms of demand, plasticizer companies have increased their production, with a focus on purchasing essential isooctanol, leading to a rebound in demand for isooctanol; The price of raw material propylene has slightly decreased, and the cost support of isooctanol still exists. As the price of isooctanol approaches the cost line, the profit margin for isooctanol manufacturers is limited. Under cost support, both supply and demand have increased, and the future rise of isooctanol is weak. It is expected that the price of isooctanol will fluctuate and stabilize.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the domestic price of LLDPE (7042) was 8296 yuan/ton on September 2, and the average price was 8251 yuan/ton on September 11, during which the quotation fell by 0.54%.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the domestic price of LDPE (2426H) was 10400 yuan/ton on September 2, and the average price was 10350 yuan/ton on September 11, during which the quotation fell by 0.48%.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the domestic price of HDPE (5000S) was 8225 yuan/ton on September 2, and the average price was 8200 yuan/ton on September 11, during which the quotation fell by 0.30%.

The price of polyethylene is running narrowly and weakly. The recent decline in international oil prices has weakened cost support, which is bearish for the polyethylene market. There are expectations of an increase in the supply side. According to data statistics, as of September 10th, the inventory of two barrels of plastic oil was 800000 tons, a decrease of 1.23% compared to the previous month and an increase of 15.94% year-on-year. Although there has been a decrease in the previous month, the year-on-year data has increased, and the pressure on the supply side is still present. The downstream of the demand side is in the peak demand season, and with the Mid Autumn Festival approaching, downstream factories are increasing their inventory replenishment behavior. However, overall support is limited, with rigid demand procurement as the main focus and low enthusiasm for intermediaries to enter the market.

On September 11th, the Dalian Commodity Exchange polyethylene L2501 contract opened at 7891 yuan and closed at 7931 yuan, a decrease of 5 yuan, with a high of 7935 yuan and a low of 7823 yuan, a decrease of 0.06%. The recent weak polyethylene futures market has suppressed the spot market.

There is an expectation of an increase on the supply side; Although downstream construction has increased, the recovery is slow, but overall support is limited. The supply-demand game is expected to have limited upward potential for polyethylene, with narrow range fluctuations being the main adjustment.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of September 10th, the reference average price of the domestic urea market was 2125 yuan/ton, which is 2.21% lower than the reference average price of 2173 yuan/ton on September 1st.

2、 Market analysis

market conditions

The domestic urea market prices have fallen this week. As of September 10th, the ex factory price of urea in Shandong region is around 1840-1880 yuan/ton, in Hebei region it is around 1890 yuan/ton, in Henan region it is around 1880 yuan/ton, and in Hubei region it is around 1900 yuan/ton.

Supply and demand situation

This week, the urea market is oversupplied. In terms of supply, the urea market has ample supply this week. In terms of demand, agriculture and industry maintain a focus on essential needs. Downstream purchases of urea are relatively cautious, with low price transactions being the main focus in the market.

3、 Future forecast

Business Society’s urea analyst believes that the urea market trend has been weak and downward recently, with a decrease in market inquiries and limited transactions. At present, the demand side has not been released yet, and the market has strong supply and weak demand. It is expected that the domestic urea market prices will continue to weaken and decline in the short term.