1、 Price data

According to the commodity analysis system of the business community, the price of Petroleum coke of the local refiner declined this week. On June 11, the average price of Shandong market was 1846.50 yuan/ton, down 1.60% from the price of 1876.50 yuan/ton on June 5.

On June 11, the Petroleum coke commodity index was 143.62, unchanged from yesterday, down 64.86% from the cycle’s highest point of 408.70 (2022-05-11), and up 114.71% from the lowest point of 66.89 on March 28, 2016. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 30th, 2012 to the present)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

This week, the price of Petroleum coke produced by local refineries continued to decline. Local refineries actively discharged their stocks. The downstream was in a strong wait-and-see mood, and the trading was average. At present, the port Petroleum coke inventory is still high, and the terminal just needs replenishment, so the overall trade is average.

The international crude oil market has been volatile this week. Affected by the favorable supply of Saudi Arabia’s plan to deepen production cuts, the bullish sentiment in the market has diluted the bearish sentiment of rising US refined oil inventories and weak Chinese data. The international crude oil prices are in a consolidation trend.

The price of calcined coke remained basically stable this week. This week, metal silicon declined slightly. As of June 11, the average price of 441 # metal silicon in the Spot market was 14090 yuan/ton. The downstream electrolytic aluminum market is on the rise, with an average price of 18666.67 yuan/ton as of June 11th. Downstream enterprises have a strong wait-and-see attitude and low enthusiasm for receiving goods, with on-demand procurement being the main focus.

Petroleum coke analysts from the business agency believe that: at present, domestic Petroleum coke supply is sufficient, local refining Petroleum coke delivery is average, refineries actively arrange stocks, downstream enterprises have a strong wait-and-see mood, receiving enthusiasm is not high, and procurement is mainly on demand. It is expected that the local refining of Petroleum coke in the near future will be dominated by weak points.

Price trend

According to the commodity market analysis system of the business community, the price trend of Cryolite in Henan is stable. On June 9, the average market price in Henan was 7850 yuan/ton, unchanged from the average price of 7850 yuan/ton on June 3, up 0.32% month on month.

quotations analysis

This week, the Cryolite market is waiting to be sorted out, and the manufacturer’s quotation is stable and small. The upstream operating rate is low, the raw material support continues to be favorable, Cryolite production is under pressure, the on-site devices operate at low load, the enterprise inventory is maintained rationally, the downstream is more resistant to high prices, the market purchase follows up as required, Cryolite enterprises are wait-and-see, maintain an active shipping, the market negotiation atmosphere is improved compared with last week, some enterprises ship smoothly, the inventory is lower, and Cryolite prices are slightly increased. As of June 9, the ex factory quotation of Cryolite in Shandong was 7000-8600 yuan/ton, with an increase of 100 yuan/ton; The ex factory quotation of Cryolite in Henan is 7200-8900 yuan/ton, and the price is increased by 100 yuan/ton within the range.

Upstream fluorite prices have slightly decreased, with an average market price of 3136.25 yuan/ton as of June 9, a decrease of 0.24% compared to the price of 3143.75 yuan/ton on June 3. The operating rate of fluorite enterprises has slightly increased, and spot supply has increased. However, mining enterprises are facing increasingly strict safety and environmental requirements, and the shortage of raw material supply continues to exist, providing support to the fluorite market. The price decline is not significant, and the market situation is wait-and-see.

The downstream aluminum market first fell and then rose. On June 9th, the aluminum price was around 18666.67 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.45% compared to the price of 18583.33 yuan/ton on June 3rd. Terminal consumption is weak, downstream demand support is insufficient, market trading and negotiation are the main focus, and some regions have significantly reduced inventory. Adjustments and increases are made based on their own shipment situation, resulting in fluctuating aluminum prices.

Future Market Forecast

Cryolite enterprises are short of raw materials in stock. Upstream support continues to be good. The manufacturers maintain a positive shipping attitude, and the market mentality is good. Downstream market entry follows up as required. Market transaction and investment negotiations are the main topic. Supply and demand in the market are relatively stable. It is expected that Cryolite market will wait and see later.

According to the commodity market analysis system of the business community, the price of Paraformaldehyde in Shandong Province has recently dropped in shock. At the beginning of the week, the average production price of Paraformaldehyde in Shandong Province was 4850.00 yuan/ton, and at the weekend, the average production price of Paraformaldehyde in Shandong Province was 4775.00 yuan/ton, down 1.55%, 5.68% month on month, and 11.30% year on year.

Upstream methanol situation: The domestic methanol market is weak and the support for methanol production costs is weakened. The Baofeng unit is recovering, the supply in mainland China is increasing, and the local formaldehyde load is decreasing, resulting in a decrease in methanol demand. As prices decline, traders and downstream sentiment weaken accordingly. The ex factory price of methanol in the southern region of Shandong is referenced to be around 2130 yuan/ton in cash exchange, while the delivery price in Linyi is referenced to be around 2150-2170 yuan/ton in cash exchange. The local methanol factory in central Shandong quoted a price of 2150-2190 yuan/ton for self delivery. The negotiated price range for methanol in the Dongying area of Shandong Province is 2080-2090 yuan/ton.

Recently, the methanol market is weak and low, and the cost support is poor. It is difficult for downstream demand to change significantly in a short time. The Paraformaldehyde analysts of the business agency predict that the price may fall slightly.

Product name: Sulfur

Latest price: On June 6th, the average sulfur price in East China was 833.33 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.63% compared to the previous working day price of 820.00 yuan/ton.

Analysis: The domestic sulfur market is on the rise, with prices generally rising. The operation of refinery units in Shandong region is average, and the market supply remains rational. The consumption in the end industry is off-season, and downstream enthusiasm is weak. Entering the market to obtain goods is mainly based on demand, while sulfur manufacturers are actively shipping. Some enterprises have good shipments, and inventory has decreased, leading to an upward trend in sulfur prices.

Future forecast: Currently, there is no inventory pressure in sulfur refining plants, downstream demand is limited, and there is a lack of effective support for positive market conditions on the market. Under the supply and demand game, it is expected that the sulfur market will be sorted out, and prices may fluctuate slightly. Please pay attention to the follow-up situation downstream.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the average market price of chlorinated paraffin 52 in China on May 29th was 5433 yuan/ton. On June 5th, the average market price of chlorinated paraffin 52 in China was 5266 yuan/ton. This week, the price of chlorinated paraffin 52 decreased by 3.07%.

2、 Market analysis

Chlorinated paraffin market prices fell this week. This week, the price of raw material liquid chlorine fluctuated, while the price of raw material liquid wax fell, weakening cost support. Downstream demand is weak, with primary demand for procurement and flat market trading. As of June 5th, the factory price of chlorinated paraffin 52 in Anhui region is about 5800 yuan/ton, the factory price of chlorinated paraffin 52 in Northeast region is about 5000 yuan/ton, and the factory price of chlorinated paraffin 52 in Shandong region is about 4500-5000 yuan/ton.

In terms of raw material liquid wax, the price of liquid wax has continued to decline this month, and market demand is weak. Liquid wax fluctuates with the crude oil market. In terms of raw material liquid chlorine, the price of liquid chlorine has fluctuated and fluctuated this month. At present, the market situation is unstable, and manufacturers’ shipments are average.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Chlorinated paraffin analysts from Business Society believe that the recent trend in raw material prices is weak, with limited cost support. The performance of terminal demand is average, and the market trading atmosphere is light. It is expected that the chlorinated paraffin market price is weak in the short term.

The sluggish situation of the domestic acetone market is difficult to change, and the focus of negotiations continues to decline. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the negotiated price of acetone in the East China region dropped from 5350 yuan at the beginning of the week to 4950 yuan/ton on June 2, and the average price in the national market dropped from 5895 yuan/ton to 5195 yuan/ton, a decrease of 11.87%

The terminal demand is severely insufficient, and actual orders in the market are rare. There is a serious lack of follow-up on the demand side, with very few customers actively entering the market for procurement. Holders are under pressure and have a high intention to sell out. Major mainstream market quotations are constantly declining, and factories have had to lower their listing prices multiple times in an inverted situation. Downstream factories are mainly wait-and-see, which hinders the procurement process.

The acetone offers in major mainstream markets across the country on June 2nd are as follows:

Region/ Quotation/ Weekly decline

East China region/ 4950./-400

Shandong region/ 5150./-600

Yanshan region/ 5250./-700

South China region/ 5450/- eight hundred

The factory has to lower its listing price due to being upside down. On the 2nd, Sinopec’s listing price in East China was 5200 yuan/ton, while Sinopec’s listing price in North China was 5200 yuan/ton. The listing price of Lihua Yiwei Yuan acetone dropped to 5100 yuan/ton. In the face of market downturn, the acetone factory lowered its listing price. And currently, the losses of phenolic ketone factories are increasing.

The operating rate of domestic phenolic ketone enterprises has been adjusted. Jiangsu Hengrui’s 650000 ton/year phenolic ketone plant was shut down for maintenance on May 30th, and Mitsui’s 400000 ton/year and Lihuayi’s first unit resumed restart on the 29th. Zhejiang Petrochemical’s Phase II 650000 ton/year phenolic ketone plant restarted in June.

As the market continues to decline, terminal factories at the beginning of the month are mainly focused on digesting contracts, with insufficient proactive procurement and difficulty releasing short-term actual orders. It is expected that the market will still struggle to improve next week, and there are also expectations of further bottoming out.

Gold prices have fallen back to the beginning of the month

On May 31st, gold prices fell back to the beginning of the month. According to the commodity market analysis system of the business community, the spot market price of gold will be 446.76 yuan/g on May 31, 2023, up 0.91% from the beginning of the month (May 1).

Silver decreased by 4.22% compared to the beginning of the month

According to the commodity market analysis system of the business community, the average price of silver in the market will be 5347.67 yuan/kg on May 31, 2023, down 4.23% from the beginning of the month (May 1), and 8.42% from the high spot market price in the month (May 5). The low point in the past year occurred on July 18, 2022, and the current price has increased by 30.49% compared to the low point.

Summary of Price Trends of Precious Metals and Crude Oil

In the early stage, the correlation between precious metals and crude oil trends is strong. After the second half of 2022, precious metal prices have bottomed out and stabilized, and the magnitude of macro factors affecting them has begun to show differentiation. The trend of precious metals and crude oil began to converge in late March, but after mid April, the trend began to diverge again. Mainly due to the increased impact of risk aversion on the rise of precious metal prices.

Comparison of precious metal gold and silver price trends in the past year

In 2022, the rise and fall trends of precious metal gold and silver have converged, but the decline in silver was deeper from April to August, and the recent recovery has been more significant. In December, silver continued its strong trend last month, and gold began to consolidate at high levels. In 2023, precious metal gold and silver have consolidated at high levels, with a slight decline in February. Since March, precious metal prices have started to rise. Silver prices began to decline in May, while gold remained relatively strong.

Policy logic

The latest news shows that a principled agreement on the debt ceiling has been basically reached, and currently only legislative procedures have been completed before the deadline. The acceleration of US consumer spending has added obstacles to the path of inflation falling, and the expectation of another interest rate hike in June in the money market has significantly increased. Previously, the Federal Reserve had already laid the groundwork for a pause in interest rate hikes in June, and recent data significantly increased the difficulty of decision-making at the June FOMC meeting.

The annualized corrected value of the core PCE price index in the first quarter of the United States increased by 5% month on month, with an expected increase of 4.9% and an initial increase of 4.9% month on month; A year-on-year increase of 4.7%, with an initial value increase of 4.7%. The core price index slightly exceeded expectations, reflecting the strong inflationary stickiness of the US dollar, and the rebound trend of the US dollar index, suppressing precious metal prices in the short term.

Fund logic

On May 30th, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange was 15332 kilograms, a decrease of 7.12% compared to the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 445420 kilograms, a decrease of 29.51% compared to the previous trading day. The gold inventory of the previous exchange was 2739 kilograms, unchanged from the previous trading day. Silver inventory decreased by 8884 kilograms to 1513534 kilograms compared to the previous trading day.

The newly announced gold SPDR ETF position was 939.56 tons, a decrease of 1.73 tons from the previous trading day. Silver SLV ETF position was 14554.35 tons, a decrease of 11.42 tons from the previous trading day

Narrowing Downward Space for Precious Metals in the Future Market

At the beginning of the month, the price of precious metals has reached a new decade high. In the early stage, we expected that under the high inflation and high interest rate hikes, the pace of overseas economic recession may lead to a relatively full sense of risk aversion, which is basically reflected in the price. Some central banks around the world increased their holdings of gold reserve, which also formed some support for gold prices.

However, the economic vitality demonstrated by domestic consumption during the May holiday, coupled with China’s first quarter economic data growth of 4.5%, partially alleviated concerns about global economic recession. Coupled with the Federal Reserve’s high interest rates and the expectation of the Federal Reserve stopping interest rate hikes in June, this has to some extent suppressed the prices of non bearing asset precious metals.

It is expected that the downward space for precious metal prices will narrow in the short term, with short-term fluctuations and consolidation being the main focus, while the medium to long term remains bullish.

Aluminum prices fluctuated sideways in May

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the average price of domestic aluminum ingots in the East China market on May 30, 2023 was 18363.33 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.69% compared to the aluminum price of 18490 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month (May 1).

In the long term, the current price is in the sideways range after a high price decline, and has been fluctuating in the range of 17500 to 19500 yuan/ton.

Cost reduction and improvement in aluminum ingot ton profit

The cost center of domestic electrolytic aluminum smelting continued to decline in May, mainly due to the downward movement of raw material prices, leading to an increase in profits per ton of aluminum.

Due to the downward movement of the prices of petroleum coke and coal tar pitch as raw materials for pre baked anode, the cost support is weak. In May, the price of pre baked anode continued its downward trend since the beginning of the year and continued to fall.

The main raw material is aluminum oxide. In 2023, the new production capacity of aluminum oxide in China will be approximately 6.3 million tons, with a renewable production capacity of over 10 million tons. Currently, the production capacity of aluminum oxide is in a pattern of oversupply. The domestic alumina production in April was slightly lower than in March, reaching 6.845 million tons, a decrease of 1.0% month on month and an increase of 11.9% year-on-year. It is understood that the newly built 1 million ton production capacity of Shandong Lubei Chemical has entered the trial operation stage, and the operating capacity of alumina is gradually being released. In addition, the continuous decline in raw material caustic soda and coal prices has led to a downward shift in the production cost of alumina.

1、 Price data

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, as of May 28th, the mainstream factory price of domestic refined and hydrogenated naphtha was 7601.50 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.83% compared to May 22nd at 7539.00 yuan/ton. The actual transaction price of refined and hydrogenated naphtha is around 7600 yuan/ton.

As of May 28th, the mainstream factory average price of locally refined straight-run naphtha in China was 7289.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.69% compared to May 22nd at 7239.00 yuan/ton. The actual transaction price of locally refined straight-run naphtha is around 7200-7400 yuan/ton.

On May 28th, the naphtha commodity index was 93.82, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 22.87% from the cycle’s highest point of 121.64 points (2022-03-10), and an increase of 122.11% from the lowest point of 42.24 points on July 19, 2016. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2012 to the present)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

This week, the price of refined naphtha has risen, with terminal restructuring and concentrated release of ethylene demand. Market trading has been positive and transactions have been good.

The international crude oil market fluctuated this week, mainly due to the pending US debt problem. Recently, there is still pressure from the macro side in the oil market, but the supply and demand side is relatively good, and the US gasoline consumption is strong; Combined with the continued interruption of exports from the Kurdish region of Iraq and the positive support of tight supply from oil producing countries such as OEPC+, oil prices have been boosted.

According to the monitoring of Business Society, the price of toluene has slightly increased this week, reaching 7050.00 yuan/ton on May 22 and 7130.00 yuan/ton on May 28, an increase of 1.13%. The price of mixed xylene has slightly increased this week, reaching 7390 yuan/ton on May 22 and 7470 yuan/ton on May 28, an increase of 1.08%. The price trend of PX this week is temporarily stable. As of the weekend, the factory price of domestic paraxylene is 8300 yuan/ton, which is the same as the price of 8300 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Energy analysts from Business Society believe that this week, the terminal restructuring of local refining naphtha and the concentrated release of ethylene demand have led to positive market trading and good transactions. Refineries are actively driving up prices, and it is expected that local refining naphtha may continue to rise in the near future.

According to the commodity market analysis system of the business community, the price of domestic polyester staple fiber market was temporarily stable this week (5.22-5.26). As of May 26, the average ex factory price was 7485 yuan/ton, unchanged from the beginning of the week. At present, some factories for polyester staple fibers are facing tight shipments, and processing fees continue to be repaired. The cost side PTA has rebounded, but the demand is still insufficient.

After late May in the PX market, with the restart of some domestic devices and an increase in domestic PTA device maintenance, PX supply has eased and prices have also eased. However, the PTA device was shut down for maintenance as planned, and the PTA operating rate dropped to around 74%. The temporary shutdown to support the PTA price stopped falling, with an increase of 0.66% this week.

Driven by the sentiment of buying up rather than buying down, the operating rate of downstream yarn factories has slightly improved, replenishing inventory as needed, and producing regular variety orders on the machine. Raw material procurement is mainly short and small orders. Overall, there is currently a lack of follow-up on orders from terminal textile enterprises, with significant fluctuations in raw material prices, and a strong wait-and-see atmosphere in some parts, resulting in a slowdown in yarn factory sales.

Analysts from Business Society believe that there have been more recent PTA inspections, improved supply and demand margins, phased market destocking, and enhanced cost support. Downstream demand procurement is the main focus, with a strong wait-and-see attitude, and the price of polyester staple fibers is mainly stagnant towards the end of the month.