The bottom support of ethylene glycol price for port’s small stock removal was strengthened

According to the data from the business community, the average price of domestic oil to glycol was 4012.50 yuan/ton on November 14, up 0.31% from the previous trading day. In terms of futures, the main contract eg2301 on the 14th closed at 3975 yuan/ton, up 2.63% daily. The spot negotiated price of ethylene glycol in the port cargo market is around 3980 yuan/ton within the day, and the negotiated price in December is around 4025 yuan/ton. There is a slight premium for forward spot. In the short term, the market bottoming expectation is strengthened.

According to the 730 k line of the business community, the daily ethylene glycol price has recently risen slightly after approaching the 7-day average, and the ethylene glycol price has stopped falling and stabilized, gradually entering the short trend upward channel.

The recent market trend is good, mainly based on the following factors:

1. The port went to the warehouse slightly. According to the tracking data of the business community, on November 14, 2022, the total spot stock of ethylene glycol in the main port of East China was 823700 tons, which was 850000 tons compared with the total spot stock of ethylene glycol on the 10th day, 26300 tons went to the warehouse, 884300 tons compared with the stock on the 13th day of last month, a month on month decrease of 6.8%. The overseas import volume was reduced, and the port inventory was eased due to the reduction of overseas arrivals.

2. The price of ethylene glycol fell to a low level, the pressure of loss on industrial devices was great, and the expectation of production reduction was strengthened. It is reported that a 360000 t/a MEG unit in the United States is planned to stop in mid November, and the restart time is to be evaluated; At the beginning of November, a set of 300000 t/a MEG unit made of synthetic gas in Anhui Province was reduced to about 40% for operation due to the impact of previous maintenance, and the recovery time is to be determined; Another 300000 t/a MEG unit in Anhui has been shut down as planned around the beginning of November, and its restart is pending; The load of the 3 # 800,000 ton production line of a 2.35 million ton ethylene glycol plant in Zhejiang has been reduced to 80% to 90% due to some reasons. At present, 1 # and 2 # are operating at full load; Affected by the poor efficiency of ethylene glycol, at the beginning of November, overseas suppliers reduced production moderately for their units located in the United States. In addition, it is reported that the supplier’s 530000 t/a ethylene glycol unit in Kuwait has been restarted before, and it is expected that the load will be compressed in the later stage.

The supply and demand fundamentals are hard to change. The medium term is weak

The downstream production of the industrial chain has gradually entered the end stage at the end of the year. The downstream polyester and terminal weaving, printing and dyeing loads are expected to decline, and the supply and demand are hard to improve.

On the demand side, all varieties of the downstream polyester industry chain have reduced their negative output. Among them, the polyester side has the largest reduction in output. PX/PTA is currently in a vacuum period of production, and the processing fees of PX/PTA in the early stage have been severely compressed. The operating rate of PX in China is 72.56%, down 0.96% from last week, down 6.78% from early November, and down for three consecutive weeks. Affected by the shrinking supply of PX, PTA has subsequently started to reduce its negative output. The operating rate of PTA this week is 73.3%, down 0.85% from last week, and down 2.88% from the beginning of the month, For two consecutive weeks, the output was reduced. The polyester end began to reduce its overall load this week, with the comprehensive operating rate dropping from 81.06% to 78.23%, of which the filament was the most obvious, falling to 64.12%.

On the supply side, the commissioning of new units was accelerated, and ethylene glycol maintained the pattern of high commissioning and low start-up. A 1.8 million ton unit in Yulin, Shaanxi, of which two 600000 ton units have been successfully started, and the remaining 600000 ton units are expected to start this month. A set of 300000 t/a MEG unit made from syngas in Inner Mongolia has been restarted at the end of October. It is expected that the product will be delivered within weeks, and it is planned to operate at 40% load in the later period. It is reported that the unit was shut down for maintenance in early October due to failure.

The domestic operating rate data showed that the overall operating rate of ethylene glycol in October was 54.74%, up month on month. At present, the operating rate of ethylene glycol by ethylene method is more than 60%, and that of other processes is around 25%. As of October 10, the comprehensive operating rate was 50.38%, higher than that in July/August/September.

At present, the number of days for ethylene glycol polyester factory to stock up is 15.1 days, up 0.9 days from last week. There is a certain hidden inventory, and the pattern of strong supply and weak demand still exists.

Strengthening of cost support

At present, the ethylene glycol of each process still has losses. Although it has improved slightly in the near future, we still need to wait and see the support of the cost side in the short term. It is expected that the ethylene glycol will operate with strong shocks in the short term, but there is limited room for the long-term upward trend.

1、 Price trend

According to the data monitored by the business community, the PVC calcium carbide method SG5 operated in shock this week. On the whole, the price increased slightly. At the beginning of the week, the average domestic PVC price was 5992.86 yuan/ton, and at the weekend, the average price was 6028.57 yuan/ton. The price decreased by 0.6% within the week.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the PVC calcium carbide method SG5 was operated in shock, and the overall price increased slightly. The overall trading and investment situation of the market is relatively light, the actual transaction situation of the spot market is general, and the market confidence is insufficient. Downstream procurement enthusiasm is not high, and the transaction of real orders is more cautious, focusing on rigid demand. Up to now, the quotation range of domestic PVC5 carbide is mostly around 5550-6150 yuan/ton.

In terms of crude oil, on November 10, international crude oil futures prices rose. The settlement price of the main contract of US WTI crude oil futures was 86.47 US dollars/barrel, up 0.64 US dollars or 0.8%. The settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was 93.67 dollars/barrel, up 1.02 dollars or 1.1%. The inflation data of the United States in October was lower than market expectations, supporting the rebound of oil prices, and diluting the fear of slowing fuel demand in Asia due to epidemic measures.

In terms of calcium carbide, the average ex factory price of mainstream calcium carbide manufacturers in northwest China fell from 3883.33 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 3733.33 yuan/ton at the end of this week, a drop of 3.86%. The price of raw material blue charcoal was consolidated at a low level. The cost of calcium carbide was generally supported. The downstream PVC market rose in a narrow range, and the downstream demand increased. It is expected that carbide prices in the northwest region will rise in a narrow range in the middle and late November.

3、 Future market forecast

PVC analysts from the business agency believe that PVC prices will rise slightly this week. This week, the futures market rose, driving the spot market sentiment. However, the overall downstream demand was average, and the trading of new orders was limited. The trading atmosphere was weak. It is expected that the PVC market will be more wait-and-see in the short term, and the finishing operation will be more stable. Pay close attention to the changes in the message.

According to the price monitoring of the business community, the price of quasi first grade metallurgical coke in Shanxi Province on November 9 was 2400 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day.

The coking coal market is dominated by weak operation. Downstream coking enterprises have low purchasing enthusiasm. Recently, the online auction price is low, dragging down the market mentality. The coking coal price is under pressure, and the mining area has some inventory pressure in the near future.

The coke market price is temporarily stable, and the overall atmosphere is weak. Up to now, it has accumulated two rounds of lifting and landing, with a cumulative drop of 200-220 yuan/ton. After two rounds of increase and decrease, the profits of coking enterprises have been damaged. At present, the current production limit is maintained, and some enterprises have slightly increased their inventory on the market. The mentality of coking enterprises is generally low. As the price of finished products continues to decline in the downstream steel plants in the near future, the steel plants are under great pressure. Under the influence of profits, the coke procurement has slowed down, the maintenance of blast furnaces has increased, and the demand for coke has declined. In the future market, the overall industrial chain is lower, the game mentality of coke steel is strong, and the coke price is expected to be weak when the demand is not significantly improved. The future market focuses on coke inventory, coke coal price trend and finished product sales in all links.

On November 8, the spot price of polyethylene in China decreased slightly, by 50-100 yuan/ton. International crude oil futures prices fell on the 7th, which was bad for the market. The shutdown devices of polyethylene production enterprises have been started successively. The output has increased compared with last week, and the market supply pressure is expected to increase. The demand for agricultural film is gradually weakening, and the peak season is nearing the end. It is expected that it will still decline in the short term.

Weak price of ethylene glycol

According to the data of the business community, the average price of oil to glycol P was 3991.67 yuan/ton on November 7, down 0.62% from the previous trading day and 29.67% year on year..

Price rise and fall in upstream and downstream of ethylene glycol industry chain

In the near future, the overall pattern of strong ethylene glycol supply and weak ethylene glycol demand remains unchanged. According to the inventory data, the MEG inventory of the main port in East China on November 7 was 838000 tons, up 38.6% year on year from 604500 tons a year earlier; From the month on month data, we can see that from May to August, the inventory was more than 1 million tons. At present, the inventory was 852100 tons on the month on month 8, slightly out of stock. On the whole, the inventory is in the same period.

On the supply side, in November, Yulin Chemical’s new units will be stable, and the domestic increment will be clear. On the demand side, it is difficult to increase the overall load due to high inventory; The market focus on the cost side continues to weaken, and the losses of ethylene glycol in various processes are further aggravated. The cost side has formed a certain support, and ethylene glycol is expected to be dominated by short-term weak sideways operation.

According to the data of the business society, the trichloromethane market continued to decline this week (10.31-11.4). As of November 4, the price of trichloromethane bulk water in Shandong was 3637 yuan/ton, down 3.64% from 3775 yuan/ton last Friday. There was no significant increase in the new demand for chloroform, the supply side was loose, the factory price of enterprises was lowered, and the business offer was lower.

This week (10.31-11.4), there was little change in the commencement of methane chloride, and the pressure on the chloroform supply side was still. Dongyue 300000t/a equipment was put into operation on October 26, reducing the load to 60%; Dongying Huatai 160000 t/a equipment was restarted in early November.

This week (10.31-11.4), the spot market of methanol rose slightly, and the cost of dichloromethane rose slightly. According to the business community, as of November 4, the spot price of methanol was 2864 yuan/ton, up 2.65% from 2790 yuan/ton last Friday. The domestic methanol market in East China is surging, the crude oil is running in shock, and the coal price is strong to support the production cost. The port market continues to de stock mainly.

At present, the downstream refrigerant market is at a low level; Printing and dyeing, printing ink and paint and other industries started stably, and the demand for chloroform has certain support.

According to the methane chloride data analysts of the business community, the supply side is loose, the demand side is not significantly increased, and the cost side is higher. It is expected that the trichloromethane market will shake and consolidate in the later period.

Trade name: PVC

Latest price: 5964.29 yuan/ton

Key points for analysis: The PVC market was fair on November 3, and the market was flexible. The manufacturer mainly keeps the price stable, while the downstream purchases on demand, and is cautious in actual orders. Futures prices rose today, and market confidence improved significantly. At present, the spot market is mainly stable.

Forecast: In the short term, the PVC spot market is relatively strong.

In November, the domestic bisphenol A market continued to decline in a sluggish manner. The market generally said that the shipment was not smooth. At present, from the perspective of the industrial chain, it is in a downward adjustment, and the chemical industry as a whole is showing a downward trend, which also has a great impact on the market. At present, the East China market has negotiated a decline of 12700 yuan/ton. In the short term, the market lacks good performance and the market is weak.

Offer of bisphenol A in domestic mainstream market on November 1:

Region., quotation.,/up and down

East China/12700./- 250

Shandong Province/12700./- 200

Sinopec’s invoicing price in East China has been reduced by 200 yuan/ton, and 5600 yuan/ton. The factory has been reduced intensively. Today’s opening fundamentals are weak, and the intention of shippers to give up profits has increased. In particular, the offer in East China has dropped significantly, with the negotiated price at 5400-5450 yuan/ton. Other mainstream regions have fallen by the same margin. The terminal factory has been slow to follow up, and the inquiry is mainly limited to actual orders. The focus is on the follow-up of terminal procurement tomorrow.

The offer of acetone in major mainstream markets in China is as follows:

Region, quotation, rise and fall

East China, 5400., – 300

Shandong Province., 5850., – 200

Yanshan District., 5900., 0

South China., 5850., – 50

Trade name: urea

Latest price (October 31): 2506 yuan/ton

On October 31, the comprehensive price of domestic urea was temporarily stable, unchanged from October 28, down 18.64% year on year. The upstream Yangquan anthracite (washing block) is about 1780 yuan/ton, the price is high and consolidated, and the cost support is firm. From the perspective of demand: agricultural demand has a small amount of stock, while industrial demand has increased. The production of rubber sheet plants is low, and the purchase of rigid demand is the main demand. The production of compound fertilizer plants is declining, and the demand for urea is weakening. The price of melamine was consolidated at a high level, and the enthusiasm for urea procurement was good. After a long wait and see, the downstream began to replenish a small amount of storage. In terms of supply, Shanxi has limited production for environmental protection, and the daily output of urea is below 150000 tons.

In the future, the domestic urea market price is expected to rise slightly, with the average market price at about 2520 yuan/ton.