According to the monitoring data of the business community, the price of steam coal is weak this week. On January 6, the energy index was 1083 points, down 1 point from yesterday, down 30.62% from the peak of 1561 points (2021-10-21) in the cycle, and up 111.94% from the lowest point of 511 points on March 1, 2016. (Note: the cycle refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to the present)

In terms of origin, the price of steam coal is weak, and the market trading atmosphere is general. The main production area is mainly to ensure the supply and long-term cooperation of coal. However, as the end of the year is approaching, the main production area is safety, and the overall supply of coal is limited. The overall wait-and-see mood of the market is strong, Duowei mainly holds the rigid demand for procurement, and the shipment of some coal mines is average.

In terms of downstream ports, the market sales are not smooth, there are few deals at high prices, the overall market turnover is average, and the enthusiasm for taking goods in the downstream is average. The end users’ demand for steam coal is limited as a whole, with a wait-and-see attitude, and there is a phenomenon of price depression.

According to the data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on January 4, the national coal prices rose and fell in late December. The specific price changes of various coals are as follows: the price of anthracite (washed block, volatile matter ≤ 8%) is 2072.1 yuan/ton, 2.1 yuan/ton higher than the previous period, or 0.1% higher. The price of ordinary blended coal (the blended coal of Shanxi fine coal and lump coal, with calorific value of 4500 kcal) was 938.6 yuan/ton, down 57.1 yuan/ton or 5.7% from the previous period. The price of Shanxi Dahun (blended coal with good quality and calorific value of 5000 kcal) was 1070.0 yuan/ton, down 94.3 yuan/ton or 8.1% compared with the previous period. The price of Shanxi Youhun (high-quality blended coal with calorific value of 5500 kcal) was 1261.4 yuan/ton, down 82.9 yuan/ton or 6.2% compared with the previous period.

Analysts from the business community believe that the overall sentiment of steam coal in the production area is average, and the market transaction is average. In terms of downstream ports, when the Spring Festival is approaching, the downstream still mainly wait and see for steam coal, and the purchase enthusiasm of power plants is average. With the decline of port coal price, the downstream has a phenomenon of price depression. It is comprehensively predicted that the steam coal price will be dominated by weak operation in the later period, depending on the downstream market demand.

In 2022, the price of aluminum fluoride will fall in a U-shaped shock

According to the data of the business agency, the aluminum fluoride market will first fall and then rise in 2022, showing a U trend in general. As of December 31, the average price of domestic aluminum fluoride was 12200 yuan/ton, down 15.08% from 14366.67 yuan/ton on January 1. The highest price of aluminum fluoride in the year is 14366.67 yuan/ton, the lowest price is 10650 yuan/ton, and the maximum amplitude in the year is 25.87%.

The trend of aluminum fluoride in 2022 is mainly divided into three stages

Phase I: rapid decline from January to March

At this stage, the cost of raw materials decreased, and the price of aluminum fluoride fell sharply. In 2022, the market of aluminum fluoride will rise rapidly and fall rapidly in the second half of the year. As the price of raw materials continued to fall, the cost of aluminum fluoride decreased, and the price of aluminum fluoride fell rapidly in the first quarter. As of March 31, the price of aluminum fluoride was 10875 yuan/ton, 24.30% lower than that on January 1.

Second stage: shock consolidation stage from April to August

At this stage, the price of fluorite rose in shock, the price of hydrofluoric acid fell in shock, the cost of aluminum fluoride raw materials fluctuated and consolidated, the demand for aluminum fluoride was weak, the rising support of aluminum fluoride was insufficient, and the downward pressure was limited. The price of aluminum fluoride fluctuated and consolidated.

The third stage: shock and rising stage from September to December

Since late August, the power rationing in Sichuan has spread to the whole country. The commencement of electrolytic aluminum and aluminum fluoride enterprises has declined, the supply of aluminum fluoride is insufficient, the prices of hydrofluoric acid and fluorite have risen in shock, the cost of aluminum fluoride has risen, the supply of aluminum fluoride is insufficient, and the price of aluminum fluoride has risen in shock. At the same time, due to the lack of gold, silver and silver, the demand for aluminum fluoride is less than expected, and the impetus for aluminum fluoride to rise is limited. In December, with the price of hydrofluoric acid and fluorite falling, The price of aluminum fluoride dropped slightly in December.

Aluminum fluoride export volume

According to the data released by the customs, the cumulative export volume of aluminum fluoride from January to November 2022 is 94674 tons, a sharp increase over previous years. The export volume of aluminum fluoride increased, the demand for aluminum fluoride increased, and aluminum fluoride was supported by a certain increase.

Future outlook

In 2022, the aluminum fluoride market will fall first and then rise. In the first quarter, affected by the decline of raw materials, the price of aluminum fluoride will fall sharply. Although the quality of Jinjiuyinshi is insufficient, aluminum fluoride enterprises will not start construction in September and October. The aluminum fluoride supply is tight, leading to the price of aluminum fluoride rising. In general, the supply and demand of aluminum fluoride market will be relatively balanced in 2022. In the future, the epidemic situation will continue and the demand for aluminum fluoride will remain weak. In the first quarter of 2023, the aluminum fluoride market may continue to weaken in December 2022. In the second and third quarters of 2023, or in the rising range of fluorspar hydrofluorate, aluminum fluoride will be supported to a certain extent.

According to the monitoring of the business community, the POM market in 2022 began to run at 20666.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year, and began to fall in early July. As of January 2, 2023, the POM price was 13933.33 yuan/ton, a decline of 32.58% throughout the year. The trend was high before and low after, with a large decline.

The trend of POM market in 2022 is mainly divided into two stages:

The first stage: deadlock stage. According to the monitoring of the business community, the average price of POM was 20666.67 yuan/ton on January 1 and 21333.33 yuan/ton on June 30, with a range increase of 3.23%. In the first quarter of this year, the supply of POM continued the tight pattern of last year, and the price rose at a high level. From the end of March to the end of June, although the supply side remained tight, the market demand began to decline in full authority. At the same time, the stock position began to rise. By the middle of the year, the stock in the market was high, and the price position driven by the strong market in 2021 began to loosen. At the whole stage, the market remained stuck at a high level.

The second stage: weak decline stage. According to the monitoring of the business community, the average price of POM from 21,333.33 yuan/ton on June 30 to 13,933.33 yuan/ton on January 2 at the beginning of 2023, the price fell rapidly, and the overall price hit the bottom, with an overall decline of 34.69%. At the beginning of this stage, POM officially entered the traditional demand off-season market, and the consumption of downstream enterprises was weak, and there was no large-scale replenishment in procurement. In addition, the high level of inventory at the end of June was taken over, and the bad news was superimposed. The spot price fell rapidly. The decline was concentrated in the three months of the third quarter, including the traditional peak season of “nine gold and ten silver”, which also failed to stimulate demand. This year’s POM peak season is not strong. In the second half of the year, the industry load and supply remained at a high level, while the demand did not improve. After the market fell rapidly, it found a balance point. Around October, the price level was about 13500 yuan/ton, which was stable and dynamic until the end of the year.

Overall, the trend of POM market in 2022 is mainly affected by the following aspects:

The demand of terminal enterprises has weakened, and the POM market has been dragged down

The downstream of POM is mainly concentrated in electronic appliances, consumer goods, automobile industry, industrial machinery and other fields. In 2022, the overall demand of downstream enterprises will be insufficient, which will gradually drag POM from its high level operation in the first half of the year to the supply and demand contradiction market. At the beginning of the year, due to the high price of POM, the cost pressure of downstream enterprises increased, and the impact of the inflation environment on real enterprises, downstream small and medium-sized enterprises were affected by this, and many of them suffered losses, and the stock level contracted.

Industry development remains stable, high-end models rely on imports

In recent years, the domestic POM industry has been cautious in expanding production and capacity, and there are few new units put into production. In the consumption of POM, electrical appliances, automobiles and machinery account for 67% of the total domestic consumption, and these products are mainly high-end products with high requirements for the quality of raw materials for parts. Generally, imported products are used. China’s POM import dependence level is about 50%, and is concentrated in high-end products. Most domestic brands are basic products, and the supply is excessive. The market competition is fierce, forming a certain pressure on the market.

The enterprise starts at a high level and keeps the supply side under pressure

In 2022, domestic POM enterprises will start at a high level throughout the year, with the monthly average operating rate as high as 88.65%. Only during the Spring Festival in February, the domestic load will reach 72.49%. In the rest of the month, the load will remain at a high level, and the operation at full operating level in the last quarter will be more stable. In terms of output, the monthly average shipment was 36000 tons, and the annual performance was stable. However, the downstream demand lags behind, the on-site supply is excessive, and the pressure on the supply side is gradually rising due to the warehouse construction. The market price fell under pressure, the mentality of the seller camp became weaker, and the operation was biased towards giving up profits and taking orders.

Future market forecast: POM analysts from the business community believe that the domestic POM industry will develop steadily in 2022, the demand of downstream enterprises will gradually lag behind, and the contradiction between supply and demand will be obvious in the second half of the year. The upstream operates with vibration, and the cost end is generally supported. The load of POM enterprises is high in the second half of the year, and the inventory pressure is high. On the macro level, the current global inflationary economic environment remains unchanged, the wide fluctuation of oil prices driven by European geopolitical conflicts, the rebound of domestic health events, and the devaluation of the RMB have all had negative effects on the POM market to varying degrees. To sum up, in 2022, the POM industry will suffer from bad news, and the activities will tend to be conservative with average market momentum. It is expected that the POM market will continue to weaken due to insufficient demand.

According to the data monitoring of the business community, the polyacrylamide commodity index on December 29 was 94.36, up 0.09 points from yesterday, down 15.38% from the highest point in the cycle of 111.51 (2021-11-03), and up 13.84% from the lowest point of 82.89 on August 2, 2020. (Note: Period refers to April 1, 2019 to now)

Commodity market: According to the data monitoring of the business community, the mainstream market of polyacrylamide (CPAM, cationic, molecular weight 12 million, 10-30 ionic degree) in China’s domestic market mainly reported about 15428.57 yuan/ton that week (December 24-29), and it was slightly adjusted to about 15442.86 yuan/ton on December 29. The release of the national public event policy has increased the number of infections in a short period of time, the manufacturer has sufficient inventory, and its production progress is affected by the reduction of the number of people on duty, the weak transportation capacity, and the reduction of downstream demand; In terms of raw materials, acrylonitrile market continued to decline, while acrylic acid steadily weakened, which was unfavorable to the support of polyacrylamide. It is preliminarily estimated that the order will continue to decrease before the year, and the polyacrylamide market will fluctuate steadily and slightly.

Raw material acrylonitrile: according to the data of the business community, the acrylonitrile market was first up and then down and then flat that week (December 24-29). As of the 29th, the price of acrylonitrile apron was 9625 yuan/ton, up 0.05% from 9620 yuan/ton on the 24th, and the highest point of the week was 9920 yuan/ton on the 27th. At present, the start of the acrylonitrile industry has declined slightly, and the inventory pressure is still large. The listing price of acrylonitrile enterprises has decreased significantly in the early stage, but remained stable in the later stage. Downstream demand was impacted within months, and the offer of merchants went down all the way. It is expected that the acrylonitrile market will be weak and consolidated in the later period.

Raw acrylic acid: according to the data of the business community, the market price of acrylic acid in the week (December 24-29) was stable at about 6800 yuan/ton. In the first ten days of this month, the market situation of acrylic acid in East China was mainly stable. The prices of some enterprises were lowered, and the cost pressure increased in the middle of this month. In addition, the load rate of production enterprises was not high, and the enthusiasm for market inquiry was increased. After the acrylic acid price rose slightly, it ran smoothly. It is expected that the acrylic acid market will be stable in the short term.

LNG for production. According to the data of the business community, the price of domestic LNG dropped by 13.30% in the week of the shock (December 24-29): the market price of LNG was about 6990 yuan/ton on December 24, and the average market price was 6060 yuan/ton on December 29. In the second half of the month, domestic LNG prices began to fall at a high level. Downstream demand support is weak, and the market continues to fall. Market supply exceeded demand, bearish sentiment on the floor increased, high liquid prices began to continue to cover the drop, and the floor lacked good support. It is expected that the market price of LNG will decline mainly in the short term.

Future market forecast: after the recent public health event policy was released, although the factory and downstream industries resumed production, the public immunity infection increased in the short term, the manufacturers started work locally, the inventory was sufficient and the demand continued to weaken. In addition, close to the New Year’s Day and New Year’s holiday, more and more logistics companies had holidays ahead of time, the transportation capacity was weak, and water treatment plants would also have holidays ahead of time on a continuous basis, It is expected that the future market of polyacrylamide will be dominated by stable and weak fluctuations.

According to the monitoring data of the business community, the price of flake caustic soda this week was consolidated. The average market price at the beginning of the week was 4816.67 yuan/ton, and the average market price at the weekend was 4783.33 yuan/ton. The price fell 0.69%, up 38.65% year on year.

Upstream caustic soda

According to the monitoring data of the business community, the price of caustic soda rose this week. At the beginning of the week, the average market price in Shandong was 1124 yuan/ton. At the weekend, the average market price in Shandong was 1130 yuan/ton. The price rose 0.53%, 14.57% higher than the same period last year. At present, the average market price in Shandong is about 1090-1200 yuan/ton. The factory quotation of 32% liquid caustic soda mainstream in Hebei is about 1100-1200 yuan/ton. The price of caustic soda in the market remained stable in the mainstream, with sporadic increases as the main factor. The downstream market is mainly wait-and-see, and mostly purchases on demand. However, due to the close of the New Year, there are downstream enterprises to stock up, which supports the price of caustic soda.

According to the analysts of the business community, the flake alkali market has been consolidated and operated, with a general trading and investment atmosphere. Most downstream enterprises purchase on demand and ship on average. They are mainly wait-and-see, with a general enthusiasm for entering the market. In general, the price of flake alkali is short-term or the consolidation operation is based on the downstream market demand.

Overview of spot price trend of precious metals

According to the data from the business community, the average early price of silver market on December 21 was 5380.67 yuan/kg, up 3.39% daily, 6.02% higher than the average early price of spot market at the beginning of the month (December 1), 5065.33 yuan/kg; The average price of spot market at the beginning of the year (January 1) was 4770 yuan/kg, an increase of 12.80%.

On December 21, the spot market price of gold was 408.25 yuan/g, up 0.93% on a daily basis, 0.86% higher than the early average price of 405.91 yuan/g in the spot market at the beginning of the month (December 1); Compared with the early average price of 372.37 yuan/kg in the spot market at the beginning of the year (January 1), the increase was 9.95%.

Price trend of precious metals and crude oil

Reasons for the recent strength of precious metals

In the near future, the overall trend of strengthening precious metal monetary attributes and superimposing nonferrous sectors is still in the upward channel, and the physical demand for silver also supports the silver price to a certain extent; On the policy side, the US dollar fell. The Bank of Japan decided to review its yield curve control policy, pushing the exchange rate of the Japanese yen against the US dollar to a four month peak. As the Western Central Bank led by the Federal Reserve curbed the unsustainable inflation through radical interest rate hikes, the market expected the Federal Reserve to slow down the pace of interest rate hikes, and the policy side increased the attractiveness of capital to precious metals.

Silver performs better than gold

Comparison of precious metal gold and silver price trends in recent one year

In the long term, the trend of precious metal prices tends to be the same, with slightly different amplitudes. Recently, silver has gained a relatively large amount.

Future market of precious metals

At present, the obvious performance of the US economy entering recession is increasing, including the shrinking of manufacturing industry prosperity and the rising number of enterprise layoffs. The space for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates is gradually narrowing, and the increase of interest rates depresses the price of precious metals. However, recently, the monetary attribute of precious metals has been strengthened, supporting precious metals to a certain extent. In the short term, it is expected that the overall volatility of the precious metals market will be dominated in the short term.

Ethylene glycol price bottom support strengthened

According to the data of the business community, the average price of domestic oil to ethylene glycol was 4058.33 yuan/ton on December 20, basically unchanged from the previous trading day. In terms of futures, the main contract eg2301 on the 20th closed at 4080 yuan/ton, up 0.27%.

On December 20, the spot price of ethylene glycol in the East China market was basically stable, and the spot external executive price of mainstream manufacturers in East China remained at 4100 yuan/ton; At the trade flow end, the spot negotiation price in Zhangjiagang market has slightly loosened. The spot negotiation price is around 4045 yuan/ton that week, and the forward spot contract is about 4055 yuan/ton in January.

Recently, the market has stopped falling and stabilized, and the price has improved slightly, mainly based on the following factors:

1. Supply side: The unplanned maintenance of ethylene glycol has increased due to the large loss of domestic production profits. At present, the overall operating rate remains at a low level, and the overseas operation is also at a low level under the influence of poor efficiency. According to statistics, as of December 15, the overall starting load of ethylene glycol in China was 56.00%, down 0.12% compared with the previous period, of which the starting load of coal to ethylene glycol was 38.56%, down 0.77% compared with the previous period.

2. Inventory: The port inventory has rebounded. The MEG port inventory in the main port area of East China is about 980000 tons, an increase of 19000 tons month on month.

3. Strengthened cost support: the price of ethylene glycol fell to a low level. At present, the price of ethylene glycol is relatively low, and domestic manufacturers have serious losses.

4. Periodic recovery of downstream demand: terminal orders increased in December, production and sales of polyester fiber improved, and inventory of polyester manufacturers decreased. The demand for goods in the first ten days of December is good.

The main reasons for the lack of space are:

1. Inventory: The port inventory has rebounded. The MEG port inventory in the main port area of East China is about 980,000 tons, an increase of 19,000 tons month on month.

2. Downstream operating rate is expected to move down periodically: public health factors will be superimposed on the approaching holidays, the production of terminal weaving plants will be reduced, the operating load of polyester is not high, and the demand for ethylene glycol may be relatively low.

3. New production capacity is expected to be strong: the medium and long term ethylene glycol production capacity is under great pressure.

in summary:

At present, the downstream is basically in the state of digesting the stock in the first ten days of December. The atmosphere of purchasing in the market is light. From the perspective of demand side fundamentals, terminal orders have increased, polyester production and sales have improved, and polyester manufacturers’ stocks have decreased, supporting the decline of ethylene glycol prices; However, with the approaching Spring Festival superimposed with Omikjon factors, the downstream operating rate is expected to move downward periodically; On the supply side, although the operating rate of ethylene glycol is low, the port inventory has rebounded, and the pressure on the production of new ethylene glycol production capacity in the medium and long term is large, so the price of ethylene glycol is weak.

According to the data of the business community, the average price of 180CST of domestic fuel oil as of December 18 was 6086.00 yuan/ton (tax included), 1.93% lower than the price of 6206.00 yuan/ton on December 12.

On December 18, the fuel oil commodity index was 123.26, unchanged from yesterday, 9.97% lower than the cycle’s highest point of 136.91 (2022-11-17), and 167.49% higher than the lowest point of 46.08 on August 15, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

International crude oil prices rose, supported by the cost of ship fuel market. According to the business community, as of December 18, the 180cst self raised low sulfur quotation of fuel oil in the Zhoushan area of CNGC was 6000 yuan/ton, and the 120cst self raised low sulfur quotation of fuel oil was 6100 yuan/ton; The price of 180cst self raised low sulfur of fuel oil in CNGC Shanghai is 6180 yuan/ton, and the price of 120cst self raised low sulfur of fuel oil is 6230 yuan/ton.

International crude oil prices rose. The US ISM non manufacturing index unexpectedly increased in November, reflecting that the domestic economy is still resilient. The continued economic boom has triggered market concerns about the Federal Reserve’s transition from “dove” to “eagle”, which may disappoint the Federal Reserve’s previous desire to slow interest rate increases. The market provides the basis for the Federal Reserve to curb inflation and maintain the monetary tightening path. The activity of American oil and gas drilling platforms has decreased, OPEC+has maintained its production reduction measures, and the recent international crude oil market has experienced a “six consecutive declines” or a technical rebound that temporarily supported oil prices. However, because the inflation index is still higher than expected, the probability of the Federal Reserve continuing to raise interest rates by 50 basis points is still high. In addition, in the context of the increased risk of global economic recession, the slowing down of demand growth in the future is a certainty. The overall economy is weak, and the prospect of energy demand is still not optimistic. The economic weakness has depressed oil prices.

Singapore’s fuel oil inventory decreased, supporting fuel oil prices. It is reported that the Singapore Enterprise Development Board (ESG): As of the week of December 14, Singapore’s fuel inventory had decreased by 217,000 barrels, falling to a two-week low of 20,089,000 barrels. Singapore’s middle distillate oil inventory fell 113000 barrels to 6.953 million barrels, a four week low. Singapore’s light distillate stocks rose 303000 barrels to a two-week high of 13.691 million barrels.

Future forecast: the international crude oil price trend is unstable, the domestic ship fuel market has a strong wait-and-see mood, the terminal replenishment capacity is limited, and the purchase is mainly based on demand, and the transaction is average. At present, the 180CST low sulfur market price of fuel oil is about 6000-6300 yuan/ton, and the 120CST low sulfur market price of fuel oil is about 6100-6350 yuan/ton. It is expected that the 180CST market of fuel oil in the near future will be dominated by the weak.

The butadiene rubber market rose slightly this week (12.9-12.16). According to the monitoring of the business community, as of December 16, the price of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber in China was 10,610 yuan/ton, up 0.76% from 10,530 yuan/ton last Friday. At the beginning of this month, after the factory price of cis polybutadiene rubber dropped significantly, it has remained stable in the near future. According to the monitoring of the business community, as of December 16, the ex factory price of butadiene rubber of Sinopec North China Sales Company had reported 10,100 yuan/ton, and the offer of merchants had rebounded slightly after a sharp fall. As of December 16, the mainstream market of butadiene rubber in Qilu, Yanshan, Yangzi, Dushanzi, Sichuan and other regions had reported 10,400~11,100 yuan/ton, and the mainstream market of private butadiene rubber had reported 10,100~10,300 yuan/ton.

Daqing, Sichuan, Maoming, Qixiang and other Shunting Butadiene plants have high load or full load production, and Haopu and other early maintenance devices have been restarted. In general, the pressure on the supply side of Shunting Butadiene Rubber is still there.

The price of raw butadiene rose this week (12.9-12.16), while the cost of cis polybutadiene rubber rose slightly. According to the monitoring of the business community, as of December 16, the price of butadiene was 6755 yuan/ton, up 2.87% from 6566 yuan/ton last Friday.

The natural rubber market rose slightly this week (12.9-12.16), supporting cis polybutadiene rubber. According to the monitoring of the business community, as of December 16, the price of natural rubber was 12470 yuan/ton, up 0.40% from 12420 yuan/ton last Friday.

The demand side increased slightly, and the downstream tire enterprises continued to increase this week. According to the business agency, the construction of semi steel tires in Shandong is around 6.60%, and that of full steel tires is around 0.60%.

Future market forecast: according to the analysts of the business association, the supply pressure of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber is still present, the demand has improved, and the cost has risen slightly. It is expected that the market of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber will rise slightly in the short term.

On December 15, the mainstream quotation range of 1 # tin ingot in East China spot market was 191500-193500 yuan/ton, with an average price of 192500 yuan/ton, 2500 yuan/ton lower than the previous trading day. The average price in the domestic market was 192520 yuan/ton, down 1.43% and 34.35% year on year compared with the previous trading day.

On the night of the 14th, the metal market fell more or less. Shanghai Tin fell about 1.4%, while London Tin fell 1.04%. In the morning trading, Shanghai Tin continued its decline. As of the closing of the Shanghai Tin 2301 contract on the 15th, the closing settlement price was 19350 yuan/ton, down 1.22%.

The overall trading in the spot market is slightly weak, with limited turnover. Downstream purchasing remains in demand. Fundamentals have not changed much in the near future as a whole, showing no loose supply and weak demand. Recently, the output of the refinery has increased slightly, and the supply is loose. At present, the downstream procurement intention is still on demand, and the actual market demand has little change. The business agency expects that the tin price in the future will be mainly weak in the long run, but will still be affected by the macro in the short run, maintaining a wide range of shocks.