According to the monitoring data of the Business News Agency, the terminal printing and paper industries have resumed operation since March, with demand support, and the hydrogen peroxide market continues to fluctuate and rise. On March 1, the average market price of hydrogen peroxide was 806 yuan/ton. On March 14, the average market price of hydrogen peroxide was 823 yuan/ton, up 2.07%.

The terminal demand turns weak and the hydrogen peroxide market rises, ushering in a callback

Since March, the demand of the terminal paper printing industry has increased, the quantity of hydrogen peroxide purchased is acceptable, the transaction of hydrogen peroxide market has improved, and hydrogen peroxide manufacturers have continuously raised the factory price of hydrogen peroxide, and the overall market has risen. The mainstream price of hydrogen peroxide in Shandong is 750 yuan/ton; The mainstream price of hydrogen peroxide in Anhui is 850 yuan/ton; The mainstream price of hydrogen peroxide in Hangzhou is 1150 yuan/ton; The overall price rose by 50 yuan/ton.

This week, the demand for hydrogen peroxide terminal turned weak, and the market of hydrogen peroxide in some regions declined. The mainstream price of hydrogen peroxide in Hebei was 850 yuan/ton, and that in Shandong was 770 yuan/ton, which was stable. The mainstream price of hydrogen peroxide in Anhui was 850 yuan/ton, which was stable.

The chemical analyst of Business News believes that the terminal demand is declining, and the hydrogen peroxide market is expected to remain weak in the future.

1、 Price data

According to the bulk list data of the Business News Agency, the price of petroleum coke from local refiners fell and rebounded this week. The average price of Shandong market on March 12 was 2701.50 yuan/ton, which was stable compared with the price of 2701.50 yuan/ton on March 6.

On March 12, the petroleum coke commodity index was 210.12, which was the same as yesterday, down 48.59% from the cycle’s highest point of 408.70 (2022-05-11), and up 214.13% from the lowest point of 66.89 on March 28, 2016. (Note: the cycle refers to September 30, 2012 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

The price of petroleum coke in refineries rose and fell in a mixed way this week. The local refineries actively arranged stocks, and the trading volume was average. The downstream enterprises were cautious about receiving goods. HSBC Petrochemical delayed the shutdown of coking unit for maintenance from March 10, and the refinery temporarily sold inventory.

On the one hand, due to the strong economic data, the Federal Reserve is likely to need to raise interest rates more sharply than expected to suppress inflation. The strong implication of Powell’s speech increased the probability that the market would raise the terminal interest rate at the upcoming meeting of the Federal Reserve on March 21-22. Investors believed that the possibility of raising the interest rate by 50 basis points at the meeting rose to more than 70%, which affected the oil market. On the other hand, the demand side still has a positive impact from China’s optimistic demand expectations. At the same time, many institutions also raised their expectations for China’s economic growth. The Secretary-General of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) said that China’s oil demand will increase by 500000 to 600000 barrels per day in 2023, and the increase in demand in Asia will make the price of crude oil market recover.

The price of calcined coke fell this week; Silicon metal market declined slightly; The downstream electrolytic aluminum price went down. As of March 12, the price was 18243.33 yuan/ton; Downstream aluminum carbon enterprises mainly purchase according to demand, and are cautious in receiving goods.

According to the petroleum coke analyst of Business News, the international crude oil fell this week, and the cost support of petroleum coke was limited; At present, the inventory of petroleum coke in domestic ports has declined, but it is still at a high level as a whole, with sufficient market supply and strong wait-and-see sentiment; Local refining enterprises actively de-stock, and downstream carbon enterprises mainly purchase on demand. It is expected that petroleum coke will be mainly refined in the near future.

Domestic price trend of paraxylene:

It can be seen from the p-xylene trend chart that the price trend of this week is temporarily stable. As of the end of the week, the domestic ex-factory price of p-xylene was 8500 yuan/ton, which is the same as the price of 8500 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week, with a year-on-year decline of 10.53%.

The domestic paraxylene supply is normal, and the domestic PX operating rate is about 70%. The external dependence of PX products is about 29%. The recent price trend of PX external market is volatile. As of the 9th, the closing price of the Asian paraxylene market is 1006-1008 yuan/ton FOB Korea and 1031-1033 dollars/ton CFR China. The low external price is negative for the domestic market. The recent operating rate of PX devices in Asia is normal. On the whole, the operating rate of paraxylene devices in Asia is about 60%, and the price trend of the domestic paraxylene market is temporarily stable.

The price of crude oil fell this week. As of September 9, the settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was US $75.72/barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was US $81.59/barrel. On the macro level, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell publicly said that due to the strong economic data, the Federal Reserve is likely to need to raise interest rates more sharply than expected in order to suppress inflation. The Group of Seven (G7) and its allies’ oil price ceiling measures against Russia have worked well. The risks of Russian oil supply are decreasing in the short term, and the trend of crude oil price is falling. The domestic paraxylene market price is temporarily stable due to the decline of crude oil price.

The price trend of the downstream PTA market rose slightly this week. As of the 10th, the average price of PTA market was 5850-5900 yuan/ton, up 1.67%. In terms of PTA supply, there are many PTA devices that have been overhauled and reduced in production at present. The industry has started about 72%. PTA has been slightly destocking. In terms of supply and demand, PTA3 has been expected to destock in April, supporting the strength of PTA prices. Downstream polyester starts remain at a high level of more than 80%, and domestic orders in spring and summer have increased. Under the background of moderate recovery of demand, although there is no significant increase, it can maintain at a high level of rigid demand. However, foreign trade orders are still not improving. The factory feedback is that new orders are insufficient, and the final foreign trade orders of the weaving factory are shrinking. On the whole, the downstream market is slowly recovering, and the price trend of paraxylene is temporarily stable.

Chen Ling, a PX analyst at the Business Agency, believes that the current oil market is playing a long and short game, and the recovery of demand in Asia has brought some benefits, but the risk of economic recession in Europe and the United States still exists. The oil market in the future will still face fundamental pressure, and the downstream market of the terminal will still face insufficient demand, as well as the uncertain prospect of foreign trade. The PX market supply is normal, and the price trend of paraxylene market is expected to be temporarily stable in the later period.

According to the data of Business News Agency, the spot market price of gold on March 8, 2023 was 413.48 yuan/g, down 1.95% from the beginning of the month (March 1), and up 0.88% from the early average spot market price of 409.89 yuan/g at the beginning of the year (January 1).

According to the data of Business News Agency, the average price of silver market on March 8, 2023 was 4742.33 yuan/kg, down 4.06% per day, down 2.49% from the beginning of the month (March 1), and down 11.28% from the average price of spot market at the beginning of the year (January 1), 5345 yuan/kg; Compared with the early average spot market price of 4368.33 yuan/kg at the beginning of October 2022 (October 1), an increase of 8.56%.

Price trend of precious metals and crude oil

Comparison of precious metal gold and silver price trends in the past year

In 2022, the rise and fall trend of precious metal gold and silver will converge, but in April and August, silver will fall deeper, and the recent recovery will be more obvious. In December, silver will continue the strong market of last month, and gold will start to consolidate at a high level. In 2023, the precious metal gold and silver will consolidate at high levels, and fall slightly in February.

Expectations of interest rate increase disturb the short-term pressure of precious metals

Federal Reserve Chairman Powell’s semi-annual monetary policy testimony in the Senate continued to release hawkish signals, and the expectation of raising interest rates by 50BP in March was significantly higher. According to the CME Federal Reserve observation data, the market expects the probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates by 25BP in March to drop sharply to 29.5%, while the probability of raising interest rates by 50BP has soared to 70.5%; The probability of raising interest rate by 25BP in May is 60.3%, and the probability of raising interest rate by 50BP is 18.6%; The probability of a 25BP interest rate increase in June is 56%, and the probability of no interest rate increase is 25.9%. The peak of the mainstream expected interest rate will move up to 5.5% – 5.75%.

The strengthening of the expectation of interest rate increase in the short term and the upward shift of the peak of the mainstream expected interest rate, to a certain extent, suppress the price of the precious metal market, and also affect the change of the trading volume in the investment market to a certain extent.

Decrease in ETF positions

On March 7, SPDR gold ETF position continued to decrease by 5.5 tons to 906.62 tons; IShares silver ETF position decreased by 14.3 tons to 14857.64 tons.

Don’t be too bearish in the future

However, in the medium and long term, the position of precious metal ETF showed a rebound trend. The central banks of all countries have also been on the way of net purchase of gold. At home, China’s foreign exchange reserves at the end of February were $3133.15 billion, a decrease of $51.312 billion on a month-on-month basis. At the end of February, the gold reserve was at 65.92 million ounces (about 2050.34 tons), an increase of 800000 ounces (about 24.88 tons) on a month-on-month basis, marking the fourth consecutive month of increasing gold holdings.

Precious metals are more sensitive to macro policy factors due to their strong monetary attributes. In the short term, the price of precious metals is still subject to tightening expectations and economic recession concerns. However, in the medium and long term, the process of interest rate increase of the Federal Reserve and central banks is facing a slowdown, and the leading impact of interest rate increase expectation on gold price will be weakened; The impact of economic data will increase significantly and become the leading factor. In addition, the international geopolitical risk events constitute the support of gold price, and some of the international hedging funds seek the gold hedging function, so in the medium and long term, the precious metal bulls still have the strength of the game, and in the short term, it is expected that the interest rate increase will prevail, and the price of precious metals will be mainly stable and weak.

Price trend

Recently, the domestic ABS market continued to be weak, and the spot price was weak and stable. As of March 6, the average price of ABS sample products was 11833.33 yuan/ton, up and down by – 1.39% from the average price level a month ago, according to the data monitoring of Business News Agency.

Cause analysis

In terms of raw materials: the overall performance of ABS upstream three materials was mixed in recent years. Among them, the market of acrylonitrile stabilized slightly last week. Some factories issued maintenance plans, while the supply was stable. Besides, the goods in the field are flat, and the enthusiasm of downstream goods preparation is general. The market is mixed, and the acrylonitrile market is expected to consolidate in a narrow range in the short term.

Recently, the domestic butadiene market fell back from a high level. Due to the limited increase in synthetic rubber, the profit was under pressure, which affected the decline in the industry operating rate, and the demand of butadiene market gradually weakened. The resource side of superimposed shipments increased, and supply and demand were weak. It is expected that the domestic butadiene market will continue to decline in the short term.

Last week, the styrene market in Shandong rebounded and rose in a narrow range. Although the terminal demand has not improved, the port inventory is still at a high level to be digested. However, pure benzene rose due to the impact of the recovery of international crude oil price, and the cost side supported the spot. However, at present, styrene is still in the process of deionization, and the market may be difficult to further strengthen.

On the supply side: the ABS industry has been running at high load for more than a month, and the operating rate was still at 96% at the end of last month. Recently, due to supply-side pressure and fierce competition for new materials, petrochemical plants have begun to reduce the burden independently, but last week the industry load fell by a narrow margin. At present, the supply of goods in the field continues to be abundant, and domestic inventory accumulates. The factory was forced to reduce the ex-factory price in order to remove the stock, and the supply side dragged the spot price.

Demand: Downstream factories, including the main terminal appliance industry, are generally motivated to stock goods recently, and some manufacturers still have pre-holiday raw material inventory to digest. The overall demand improvement is limited, the overall trend is weak, and the flow of goods in the field is poor.

Aftermarket forecast

At the beginning of March, the trend of ABS upstream three materials was mixed, which supported the cost side of ABS generally. The high starting point of the petrochemical plant fell back in a narrow range, and the market supply of goods was abundant and the inventory rose. The demand-side support is poor, the mentality of merchants is weak, and the operation is biased to yield profits and take orders. It is expected that the ABS market will continue to be weak due to the impact of supply and demand contradiction in the short term.

According to the monitoring of the Business News Agency, the domestic aggregate MDI market rose significantly. From February 27 to March 3, the market price of domestic aggregate MDI rose from 16560 yuan/ton to 17020 yuan/ton, and the price rose by 2.78% in the week, 1.55% month-on-month and 15.53% year-on-year. Boosted by the higher settlement price of production enterprises, the spot cost moved up and traders went up. However, the high level transaction was blocked, the specific transaction was weak, and the rise was difficult to continue.

On the supply side, Chongqing BASF 400000 t/a unit entered the maintenance state on February 5, and the supply was reduced. Under no great pressure from the production enterprises, it was still in a price attitude.

In terms of cost, raw material pure benzene: the domestic market price of pure benzene rose. The domestic production of pure benzene continued to increase, but the internal and external prices were upside down, the import volume was reduced, the downstream demand was expected to improve, and the demand for steel and speculators were bullish at the same time, and actively entered the market for procurement. Raw aniline: high level horizontal plate of domestic aniline. The terminal tire starts at a high level and the finished product inventory is at a low level, which is good for the demand for aniline. There are obvious short-term positive factors on the cost side of aggregate MDI.

On the demand side, the overall follow-up of the downstream ice-cold industry is OK, the current price and cost advantage still exists, and the demand is partially supported. In addition, the recent demand of Changzhou plate market has increased, but the concentration of early orders has moved backward, which has a general market support for the time being. The concentration of consumption of early low-price inventory is mainly, and the increase of new goods is general.

According to the future market forecast, the supply side inventory increment is expected. In addition, the market atmosphere will be promoted in an orderly manner as the price rises in the near future, but the follow-up ability of the demand side is relatively limited. The MDI analysts of the Business Club predicted that the domestic aggregate MDI market was dominated by high volatility.

Price trend in February

According to the monitoring of the bulk list data of the Business News Agency, the price of cryolite in February was stable. On February 28, the average market price in Henan was 7975 yuan/ton, which was the same as the price at the beginning of the month, with a year-on-year increase of 10.00%.

In February, the domestic cryolite market ran smoothly, and the quotations of cryolite enterprises were stable and slightly changed during the month. Some enterprises were slightly reduced according to their own shipments after the festival. The upstream operating rate was low, the raw material supply was tight, the cryolite enterprises were limited to start operations, the enterprise inventory remained rational, the cryolite market price was high, the downstream side just needed to purchase, the cryolite enterprises shipped as needed, the focus of market negotiations was general, and the cryolite market was wait-and-see operation.

Upstream and downstream market analysis

On the upstream side, the domestic fluorite market declined in February. Due to the requirements of safety and environmental protection, some units in fluorite mines were put into operation, but the downstream stock was sufficient, and the purchasing enthusiasm was general. The fluorite market price fell back. The average price of fluorite at the end of the month was 3050.00 yuan/ton, down 3.37% from 3156.25 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month.

The market price of the downstream aluminum market fell in February. The average price of domestic aluminum ingots in the East China market at the end of the month was 18340 yuan/ton, down 3.37% from the average price of 18980 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. After the aluminum price recovered in January, the aluminum market was less than expected. The aluminum price fell in mid-February, and the current price is at the low level in the month.

Aftermarket forecast

The price of cryolite raw materials fell, but the supply of goods was tight, the support for cryolite was still in place, the downstream aluminum market was sluggish, the demand performance was insufficient, and the volume of cryolite was limited. From the perspective of supply and demand performance, the market was wait-and-see attitude, and it was expected that the cryolite market would continue to be stable in the future.

Aluminum price fell by 3.37% in February

According to the data of Business News Agency, the average price of domestic aluminum ingots in the East China market on February 28, 2023 was 18340 yuan/ton, down 3.37% from the aluminum price of 18980 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month (February 1). After the aluminum price recovered in January, the aluminum price fell in mid-February, and the current price is at the low level in the month.

In the long term, the current price is in the broad range of the shock platform after the high correction, and the average price of aluminum ingot market is 17450 yuan/ton, up 5.10% compared with the recent recovery starting point (July 14, 2022). The recent high price of aluminum appeared on December 5, and the average market price of aluminum ingots was 19536.67 yuan/ton, down 6.13%.

Overview of fundamentals

1. Inventory data

As of February 27, the domestic mainstream social inventory was 1.251 million tons, 1.076 million tons compared with the social inventory at the beginning of the month (February 2), and 185000 tons accumulated.

2. Production data

In January, China’s domestic primary aluminum output was 3.4 million tons, with an average daily output of about 110000 tons, slightly lower than that in December last year. Regional supply: Sichuan and Guangxi continue to resume production, with a total of 16 tons expected to resume production in February; Gansu and Inner Mongolia’s new investment is expected to reach 40000 tons this month; Yunnan is expected to reduce production by 3.7-80 million tons; Overall, at the end of February, the production capacity of electrolytic aluminum fell back to 39.6 million tons.

3. Downstream commencement

By the end of the month, the operating rate of domestic leading aluminum downstream processing enterprises had risen to 61.8%. From the perspective of products, the operating rate of aluminum strip and aluminum foil plate is relatively good, except for aluminum alloy plate. Downstream operation has a positive trend as a whole, and it is expected that the short-term operation rate will maintain an upward trend.

Macroscopic factors

The minutes of the meeting of the Federal Reserve from January 31 to February 1 said that most officials supported the interest rate increase by 25 basis points, because the slower pace “will enable them to better evaluate the progress of the economy in reducing the inflation rate to 2%.” However, a “small number” of participants at the meeting directly supported the interest rate increase by 50 basis points, or said that “they may support” the interest rate increase by 50 basis points at that time. The US PCE data in January outperformed expectations, which may push up the expectations of the Federal Reserve for higher terminal interest rates to some extent. The US dollar rose strongly, and non-ferrous commodities were under pressure as a whole. The expectation that the Federal Reserve will increase the tightening force has made the aluminum price downward under pressure.

Aftermarket forecast

On the supply side, the recent production reduction of boots in Yunnan has been implemented, and the production reduction capacity is slightly higher than expected, and the positive expectation in the early stage is gradually digested. From the inventory data, the downstream consumption has improved, the operating rate of processing enterprises has risen significantly, but it is less than expected, the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum has increased slightly, and it is still in the trend of accumulation, and the inventory of downstream aluminum rods is still out of stock. In the short term, electrolytic aluminum will be suppressed by macro factors, and it is expected that the operation will be mainly weak, and the downstream consumption will be seen in the future.

According to the data of Business News Agency, the spot market price of gold on February 27, 2023 was 413.05 yuan/g, down 2.05% from the beginning of the month (February 1), and up 0.77% from the early average spot market price of 409.89 yuan/g at the beginning of the year (January 1).

According to the data of the Business News Agency, the average price of silver market on February 27, 2023 was 4859.33 yuan/kg, down 0.15% per day, down 6.25% from the beginning of the month (February 1), and down 9.09% from the average price of the spot market at the beginning of the year (January 1), 5345 yuan/kg; Compared with the early average spot market price of 4368.33 yuan/kg at the beginning of October 2022 (October 1), an increase of 11.24%.

Price trend of precious metals and crude oil

Comparison of precious metal gold and silver price trends in the past year

In 2022, the rise and fall trend of precious metal gold and silver will converge, but in April and August, silver will fall deeper, and the recent recovery will be more obvious. In December, silver will continue the strong market of last month, and gold will start to consolidate at a high level. In 2023, the precious metal gold and silver will consolidate at high levels, and fall slightly in February.

Macro fundamentals

The US PCE data in January performed better than expected, which may push up the expectations of the Federal Reserve’s higher terminal interest rate to some extent. The US dollar rose strongly, and the bulk was under pressure as a whole. The expectation of the Federal Reserve to increase the tightening force made the precious metals fall under pressure.

In Europe, the European Central Bank’s Euro short-term interest rate (ESTR) rose to 3.76% in November 2023 from about 3.65% before the release of US data. According to the survey of economists, the core inflation rate of the euro zone in February, which is expected to be released on Thursday, will remain at a record level of 5.3%. European Central Bank President Lagarde said earlier that the European Central Bank is likely to continue to implement the plan of raising interest rates by 50 basis points when it meets next month.

Precious metal aftermarket

Precious metals are relatively sensitive to macro fundamental factors due to their strong monetary attributes. The expected tightening of the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy also put some pressure on the continued upward trend of precious metal prices, including the upward energy. In the short term, it is expected that the price of precious metals will be mainly stable and weak.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of Business News Agency, as of February 24, the average market price of 85% thermal phosphoric acid in China was 8366 yuan/ton, down 0.20% from the average price of 8383 yuan/ton on February 20.

According to the data of Business News Agency, as of February 24, the average market price of 85% wet-process phosphoric acid in China was 8150 yuan/ton, which was 1.21% lower than the average price of 8250 yuan/ton on February 20.

2、 Market analysis

Mainstream market:

As of February 24, the ex-factory price of 85% thermal phosphoric acid in Sichuan is about 8200-8600 yuan/ton, that in Yunnan is about 8500 yuan/ton, and that in Hubei is about 8100-8600 yuan/ton. The domestic market price of 85% wet-process phosphoric acid is about 7550-8900 yuan/ton.

Cost side:

In terms of raw yellow phosphorus, the market price of Yunnan-Guizhou yellow phosphorus was lowered this week. The manufacturer has issued many preliminary orders. At present, the devices of many enterprises are in maintenance status, and the quotation is not available for the time being. The overall market trading situation is light. Under the bearish mood of the downstream, the buying enthusiasm is not high, the high-end price is difficult to deal, the operation is cautious, and the low market price frequently depresses the market confidence. Up to now, the mainstream quotation is about 31000 yuan/ton, and the actual transaction is a single negotiation.

In the aspect of raw phosphorus ore, the overall phosphorus ore market was stable at a high level this week. As of February 24, the domestic market price of 30% grade phosphate ore is around 1050-1100 yuan/ton, and the price of 28% grade phosphate ore is around 950-980 yuan/ton. The reference price of 32% grade phosphate ore is around 1180-1250 yuan/ton.

Supply and demand side:

The supply of phosphoric acid market was stable this week, and there was no major change in the supply side. Downstream procurement on demand is still cautious and wait-and-see. On-site trading is general, and terminal demand needs to be released.

3、 Aftermarket forecast

According to phosphoric acid analysts of the Business Society, due to the increase in the price of raw phosphorus and the strengthening of cost support, the market trend of thermal phosphoric acid has begun to rebound, and manufacturers have more willingness to increase. It is expected that the market price of phosphoric acid will rise in the short term.