After the holiday, the phthalic anhydride market fluctuated slightly and rose

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of October 14th, the price of phthalic anhydride produced by the phthalic anhydride method was 7387.5 yuan/ton, a fluctuating increase of 2.60% compared to the price of 7200 yuan/ton on October 1st. The price of ortho phthalic anhydride is temporarily stable, and the cost of ortho phthalic anhydride is stabilizing. After the holiday, the domestic price of ortho phthalic anhydride is quoted at 7200-7400 yuan/ton for production, while the price of industrial naphthalene is rising. The cost of naphthalene phthalic anhydride is also rising, and the domestic price of naphthalene phthalic anhydride is quoted at 7000-7100 yuan/ton for production.

Supply side: tight supply of goods

After the holiday, the operating load of domestic phthalic anhydride plants increased, with an increase in the operation of naphthalene phthalic anhydride equipment and an increase in the operation load of neighboring phthalic anhydride equipment. The supply of phthalic anhydride from manufacturers has increased, and the supply of phthalic anhydride is sufficient. The downward pressure of phthalic anhydride has weakened, and the upward pressure still exists.

The cost of raw material ortho benzene is temporarily stable

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of October 14th, the price of ortho benzene was 7100 yuan/ton, which is temporarily stable compared to the price of ortho benzene of 7100 yuan/ton on October 1st. The price of ortho benzene is temporarily stable, the cost of ortho phthalic anhydride is stable, and the downward pressure of ortho phthalic anhydride is weakened.

Demand side: DOP market trend first rises and then falls

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of October 14th, the price of plasticizer DOP was 9226.25 yuan/ton, a fluctuating increase of 2.64% compared to the DOP price of 8988.75 yuan/ton on October 1st. After the holiday, DOP prices first rose and then fell, with fluctuations in DOP prices. The post holiday economic recovery, coupled with the replenishment of plasticizers after the holiday, has led to an increase in demand for DOP and a rise in DOP prices. The operating rate of downstream plasticizer enterprises has increased, leading to an increase in demand for plasticizers; With the end of inventory replenishment and a decline in demand, coupled with a slower than expected economic recovery, the price of plasticizer DOP has fallen from a high level. The price of plasticizer DOP rose sharply and then fell back.

Future forecast

According to the data analyst of Shengyi Society’s phthalic anhydride products, in terms of cost, the price of ortho xylene is stabilizing, and the cost of phthalic anhydride is temporarily stable; In terms of supply, phthalic anhydride manufacturers are operating at high loads, and the supply of phthalic anhydride is sufficient; In terms of demand, DOP manufacturers have increased their production and demand for phthalic anhydride has risen. Both supply and demand have increased, but the increase in supply is expected to be greater than the increase in demand, and it is expected that the market for phthalic anhydride will be weak and volatile in the future.

1、 Price trend

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of light soda ash has increased after the holiday. On October 12th, the average market price of soda ash was 1644 yuan/ton, and on October 8th, the price of soda ash was 1614 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan/ton or 1.86% within the week.

2、 Market analysis

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the soda ash market has slightly increased after the holiday. On the supply side, the operating rate of soda ash is relatively high, the market supply is sufficient, and manufacturers are actively shipping; On the demand side, the downstream market is rising, boosting the soda ash market. The demand for soda ash is steadily following up, and the market trading atmosphere is improving. On site shipments are smooth, and soda ash prices are consolidating and rising.

As of October 12th, the reference price for the soda ash market in East China is around 1500-1600 yuan/ton for light soda ash; The reference price for the soda ash market in Central China is around 1400-1600 yuan/ton for light soda ash.

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the downstream glass market has risen strongly. From October 8th to 12th, the price of glass increased from 13.45 yuan/square meter to 14.85 yuan/square meter, an increase of 10.41%. During the holiday season, the demand for glass market is strong, and glass prices have risen sharply. Downstream demand has weakened after the holiday, and manufacturers have reduced shipments, resulting in a slight decrease in market prices. The overall market trend during the week is relatively strong.

Future forecast: Currently, the utilization rate of domestic soda ash production capacity continues to be at a high level, and there is significant inventory pressure on spot soda ash factories. Downstream glass prices have risen significantly, which is favorable for the soda ash market. Under the supply-demand game, it is expected that soda ash will operate steadily in the short term, depending on downstream market demand.

According to the data from the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, after the National Day holiday, there has been an increase in terminal demand, and the hydrogen peroxide market has risen. On October 1st, the average market price of hydrogen peroxide was 773 yuan/ton, and on October 10th, the average market price of hydrogen peroxide was 780 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 0.86%.

Terminal demand increases, hydrogen peroxide market oscillates and rises

After the National Day holiday, the demand for terminal rigidity increased, and manufacturers’ purchases of hydrogen peroxide rebounded slightly, supported by positive factors. The hydrogen peroxide market saw an increase, with an overall quotation of 700-800 yuan/ton. On October 10th, the average price of hydrogen peroxide in the Shandong region was around 700 yuan/ton, with a price increase of about 20 yuan/ton. The average price of hydrogen peroxide in the Hebei region was 720 yuan/ton, with a price increase of about 40 yuan/ton; The average price of hydrogen peroxide in the Anhui region is around 840 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 40 yuan/ton.

Business Society Chemical Analysts believe that by the end of October, the demand for hydrogen peroxide terminals will rebound, and the hydrogen peroxide market will continue to rise in the future.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of October 9, 2024, the reference price of n-butanol in Shandong Province, China was 7086 yuan/ton. Compared with October 1 (reference price of n-butanol was 6813 yuan/ton), the price has increased by 273 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.01%.

From the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, it can be seen that in September, the overall market situation of n-butanol in Shandong Province, China, showed a fluctuating downward trend. In early September, the n-butanol market continued to decline, and the market center continued to move towards lower levels. As of September 15th, the n-butanol market price in Shandong region was based on 6666 yuan/ton, with a drop of 6.32% in the first half of the year.

On the supply side: After the holiday, the domestic n-butanol market remained stable in terms of supply, with less pressure on the overall supply side of n-butanol. The overall supply inventory in the market was low, and the supply side provided support for the n-butanol market.

On the demand side: After the holiday, downstream demand procurement for n-butanol performed well, and downstream users were more active in restocking, driving the n-butanol market to rise on the demand side.

Market price situation of n-butanol

Region/ Product/ October 9th

Shandong region/ N-butanol/ Around 7100-7200 yuan/ton

North China region/ N-butanol/ Around 7100-7200 yuan/ton

South China region/ N-butanol/ Around 7500-7600 yuan/ton

East China region/ N-butanol/ Around 7400-7500 yuan/ton

Market analysis in the future

At present, the trading atmosphere in the n-butanol market is mild, with some downstream companies stocking up before the holiday. The overall market demand has slightly improved, and shipments at low prices have also improved. The n-butanol data analyst from Shengyi Society believes that in the short term, the domestic n-butanol market will mainly operate with large stability and small movements, and the specific trend still needs to pay more attention to changes in supply and demand news.

The acetone offers in various markets across the country on October 8th are as follows:

East China region: 5800-5850, up 100%

Shandong region: 5900-5950, up 50%

Surrounding area of Yanshan Mountain: 5950 square meters

South China region: 6000-6050, up 100%

During the holiday, crude oil prices rose sharply, and on the first day after the holiday, traders had a positive attitude and a strong sentiment towards raising prices. The offers continued to push up, and in the afternoon, some factories raised their listing prices. The market activity was high, and inquiries were active. On the 8th, the port inventory in Jiangyin was 25000 tons, slightly lower than last week. Short term cargo replenishment is limited, and port inventory is expected to continue to decline. It is expected that acetone will continue to rise in the short term, and downstream demand should be monitored.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic price of ethyl acetate remained stable on September 30th, with a factory price of 6066.67 yuan/ton, which was the same as the previous trading day’s price. The cost support is stable, downstream follows up as needed, and the supplier remains cautious. The price of ethyl acetate remains stable.

Market analysis: The market for ethyl acetate remains stable. On the raw material side, the price of acetic acid remains stable and wait-and-see, with limited cost support; On the demand side, downstream pre holiday stocking enthusiasm has weakened, with a focus on following up on demand; On the factory side, the sales mentality has slowed down, with stable quotations as the main focus, waiting for news to be released after the holiday.

Looking ahead, the market for ethyl acetate raw materials remains stable, with insufficient upward momentum and a wait-and-see attitude in the ethyl ester market; On the supply side, ethyl acetate manufacturers ship on demand, with little sales pressure; Downstream demand has slowed down, and trading in the market has become weak. It is expected that the price of ethyl acetate will weaken and consolidate after the holiday. Specific attention should be paid to changes in the upstream market and downstream follow-up.

1、 Price trend

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of soda ash continued to decline in September. At the beginning of the month, the average market price of light soda ash was 1810 yuan/ton, and at the end of the month, the average market price was around 1614 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10.83% during the month and a decrease of 47.77% compared to the same period last year. On September 29th, the light soda ash commodity index was 82.77, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 56.23% from the cycle’s highest point of 189.10 points (2021-11-07), and an increase of 31.07% from the lowest point of 63.15 points on November 18, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to present)

2、 Market analysis

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the soda ash market continued to decline this month. On the supply side, the operating rate of soda ash is high, the production of soda ash is sufficient, the inventory pressure of enterprises continues to exist, and market confidence is insufficient; On the demand side, the terminal market is mainly weak, with excessive consumption of inventory and limited demand for soda ash. The market trading atmosphere is quiet, and under the game of supply and demand, soda ash prices continued to decline weakly during the month. As of September 29, 2024, the mainstream market price for light soda ash in East China is around 1450-1600 yuan/ton, while in Central China, the mainstream market price for light soda ash is around 1400-1550 yuan/ton.

On the demand side: According to the commodity analysis system of Business Society, the price trend of glass has continued to decline this month. The average market price of glass at the beginning of the month was 15.72 yuan/square meter, and the average market price at the end of the month was 13.45 yuan/square meter, a decrease of 14.44%. The spot market in the glass market continues to be weak, downstream demand is weak, inventory consumption is the main factor, market trading is insufficient, and the price market is running weakly.

According to the price monitoring of Shengyi Society, in the 39th week of 2024 (9.23-9.27), there were a total of 2 products that rose, 2 products that fell, and 2 products with zero price fluctuations in the chlor alkali industry price list. The main commodities that have risen are: calcium carbide (2.53%), PVC (1.25%); The main commodities experiencing a decline are: light soda ash (-2.77%) and baking soda (-1.48%). The average increase or decrease this week is -0.08%.

Market forecast: According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of light soda ash in some areas has slightly rebounded recently. Although the operating rate of spot soda ash plants is still high and the supply of goods is sufficient, there has been a slight increase in the downstream before the holiday, which has boosted the soda ash market. The intention of operators to rise has increased, and it is expected that the price of soda ash may slightly rebound in the later period, depending on downstream market demand.

1、 Price trend

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of light soda ash has fallen this week. As of September 27th, the average market price of soda ash was 1614 yuan/ton, a decrease of 46 yuan/ton compared to the beginning of the week price of 1660 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.77%, and a decrease of 10.83% compared to the beginning of the month.

2、 Market analysis

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the overall soda ash market has been weak this week. On the supply side, the equipment of maintenance enterprises has resumed operation, the utilization rate of soda ash production capacity has been improved, the market supply of goods has increased, the pressure on manufacturers’ inventory is greater, and the focus of soda ash transactions continues to shift downwards; On the demand side, downstream demand first fell and then stabilized, with limited demand for soda ash. Prior to the holiday, downstream demand was replenished as needed, and some soda ash companies shipped some products. In some regions, soda ash prices were raised. On September 27th, the price of soda ash in East China increased slightly, with the mainstream market price for light soda ash ranging from 1430 to 1600 yuan/ton; The price of soda ash in central China has slightly increased, with the mainstream market price for light soda ash ranging from 1350-1550 yuan/ton.

On the demand side: According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the glass price market first fell and then stabilized. As of September 27th, the market average price was 13.45 yuan/square meter, a decrease of 0.74% compared to the market average price of 13.55 yuan/square meter at the beginning of the week. The glass market has experienced a slight decline in production, but overall it is still weak, with limited inventory reduction and downstream purchases following up on demand, resulting in weak glass prices.

Future forecast: Currently, the utilization rate of domestic soda ash production capacity is high, and there is significant inventory pressure on spot soda ash factories. The downstream glass industry is temporarily stable, but demand support is still limited. The soda ash market has insufficient trading, and the atmosphere in the market is cautious. It is expected that the short-term soda ash will be observed and consolidated, depending on downstream market demand.

Aluminum prices fell first and then rose in September

Aluminum prices first fell and then rose in September, showing strong performance recently. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of September 26, 2024, the average price of aluminum ingots in the East China market in China was 19980 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.71% from the market average price of 19643.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month (September 1).

On September 26, 2024, the spot price of aluminum ingots (AL99.70) for China Aluminum Corporation Limited is as follows: the external quotation for the East China market is 19990 yuan/ton, the external quotation for the South China market is 19810 yuan/ton, the external quotation for the Southwest market is 19940 yuan/ton, and the external quotation for the Central Plains market is 19940 yuan/ton.

Macro positive news

On September 24, Pan Gongsheng, President of the People’s Bank of China, announced at the press conference of the State Council Reform Office that he would create swap facilities for securities, funds and insurance companies, and support eligible securities, funds and insurance companies to obtain liquidity from the Central Bank through asset pledge, which would significantly improve their ability to obtain funds and increase their stock holdings. Create special refinancing programs to guide banks to provide loans to listed companies and major shareholders, and support stock repurchases and increases in holdings.

The Governor of the People’s Bank of China, Pan Gongsheng, stated that the reserve requirement ratio will be further lowered by the end of the year based on the situation. It is possible to further lower the reserve requirement ratio by 0.25-0.5 percentage points.

The central bank has proposed further interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio cuts to release liquidity, while also creating a shift towards refinancing to guide listed companies to repurchase and increase their holdings of stocks. At the real estate level, it is proposed to lower the interest rates of existing housing loans and unify the minimum down payment ratio for housing loans. A series of policy combinations have brought confidence to the market, and commodities have collectively turned red. In the short term, non-ferrous metals are mainly boosted by policies.

Domestic inventory changes

In September, the overall inventory of the electrolytic aluminum plant area decreased, and the social inventory decreased significantly, resulting in a downward shift in overall inventory.

As of September 26th, incomplete statistics show that the main electrolytic aluminum plant inventory in China is 49000 tons, compared to 53000 tons on August 29th. The inventory has decreased by 4000 tons, but compared to 47000 tons on September 12th, the cumulative inventory is 2000 tons.

As of September 26th, the mainstream social inventory of aluminum ingots in China was 684000 tons, compared to the main factory inventory of 803000 tons on August 29th, with 119000 tons sold out.

Future expectations

Recently, on the supply side, Yunnan electrolytic aluminum enterprises are nearing the end of their resumption of production, with high daily output and narrowed upward space; Overseas New Zealand direction, due to power shortages, supply has slightly decreased. On the demand side, there has been a rebound in operating rates in multiple downstream sectors, with electrolytic aluminum and aluminum rod inventories both experiencing slight destocking. It is expected that supply and demand will stabilize in the short term, with the main focus on macro trading sentiment.

In the medium term, focusing on the supply tightening caused by the reduction in production during the dry season, the favorable supply side may be an important factor supporting the future strength of aluminum prices.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of September 25th, the reference average price of 85% industrial grade phosphoric acid in China is 6800 yuan/ton, which is stable compared to the reference average price of 6800 yuan/ton on September 19th.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of September 25th, the reference average price of 85% wet process phosphoric acid in China was 6966 yuan/ton, which is 0.95% lower than the reference average price of 7033 yuan/ton on September 19th.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the domestic phosphoric acid market experienced narrow fluctuations. As of September 25th, the market price of 85% industrial phosphoric acid in Hubei region is around 6800-7000 yuan/ton, and the market price of 85% thermal phosphoric acid in Sichuan region is around 6700-6900 yuan/ton. The domestic market price for 85% wet process phosphoric acid is around 6950-7050 yuan/ton.

Cost end

In terms of raw material yellow phosphorus. This week, the price of raw material yellow phosphorus has decreased, leading to a lack of market confidence and a poor trading atmosphere. The shipment of yellow phosphorus was not smooth before the holiday, and downstream price cutting procurement was the main reason. It is expected that the short-term yellow phosphorus market will continue to weaken and decline.

Raw material phosphate rock market. This week, the market price of phosphate ore remained stable at a high level, with tight supply in some areas, and the main focus was on issuing preliminary orders. It is expected that domestic phosphate rock prices will remain stable in the short term.

Supply and demand side

This week, the supply and demand in the phosphoric acid market are relatively balanced. There is currently no significant change in market supply, downstream purchases are made on demand, and the enthusiasm for receiving goods is average. The prices of some phosphoric acid enterprises have slightly decreased, and the market is in urgent need of support. It is expected that there will be no significant fluctuations in short-term supply and demand.

3、 Future forecast

Business Society’s phosphate analyst believes that the phosphate market has been stagnant and consolidating recently. Due to the decrease in the price of raw material yellow phosphorus, some phosphoric acid manufacturers have made slight adjustments. At present, cost support is weakening, but pre holiday demand remains. It is expected that the short-term phosphoric acid market price will remain stagnant and operate mainly.