Price: 3700 yuan/ton

Analysis: On October 19th, the domestic liquid ammonia market price increased. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the daily increase in the main production area of Shandong was 2.12%. The main reason is tight supply, which is good for support. The northern region is mainly affected by the Beijing conference, and transportation has been affected to some extent, resulting in a decrease in factory load. The manufacturer’s quotation has been raised multiple times this week, with a cumulative increase of over 200 yuan/ton. The dealer’s offer naturally rose. In addition, the downstream urea market has steadily increased, mainly influenced by the new round of bidding from India and India, with an increase of 100-150 yuan/ton this week. From a terminal perspective, agricultural demand follows up in a timely manner, while industrial demand is mainly supported by demand. However, there are not many new export orders, which may become a limiting factor for the rise of liquid ammonia in the later stage. At present, the mainstream quotation in Shandong region is between 3600-3700 yuan/ton.

Prediction: It is expected that there will be a recovery in the equipment of northern liquid ammonia enterprises in the near future, and the downstream industrial demand is average, and there may be a short-term change in supply and demand. It is expected that liquid ammonia will be difficult to continue driving up the market.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the domestic polyester staple fiber market prices have slightly rebounded recently. As of October 18th, the average price quoted by the 1.4D * 38mm polyester staple fiber factory was 7722 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.39% compared to October 15th.

Due to the macroeconomic and global geopolitical turmoil, the recent international crude oil prices have experienced significant fluctuations. As of October 17th, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $86.66 per barrel, while the settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was $89.90 per barrel.

PTA fluctuates with crude oil prices, but the amplitude is not significant. As of October 18th, the PTA market price in East China was 5867 yuan/ton. There are maintenance and load reduction phenomena in the PTA factory, with Hengli Petrochemical’s 2.2 million ton unit undergoing maintenance for about two weeks on October 7th, and Ineos 1 # 1.1 million ton PTA unit undergoing maintenance from mid October to the end of November. The load of the 2 # 1250000 ton device is between 80-90%. The current PTA industry’s construction has decreased to around 74%.

Downstream yarn factories purchase according to demand, with a cautious purchasing mindset. The yarn factory’s shipments are average, and the operation is relatively stable. At present, the reference price for pure polyester yarn in the Shandong region is 12850 yuan/ton. The profit of the yarn factory is still in a loss state, and the trading atmosphere is average. The new season orders have been placed for production, but it has not yet reached the level of the same period in previous years.

Analysts from Business Society believe that the current polyester staple fiber market is mainly on a wait-and-see basis, with stable costs and no obvious driver of supply and demand. It is difficult for downstream actual demand to improve significantly and has been lukewarm. It is expected that the price of polyester staple fibers may decline in the short term.

1、 Trend analysis

According to the monitoring of nickel prices by the Business Society, on the 17th, the average spot market price of nickel was 152500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.02% compared to the previous trading day. The overnight market’s Lunni range fluctuated, closing at $18575/ton, down $5 or 0.03%, while the Shanghai Nickel 11 contract fell 1570 yuan/ton to $150730 yuan/ton or 1.03%.

From a macro perspective, the Fed’s stance is biased towards doves, leading to a decline in the prices of the US dollar and US bonds. This change will affect metal prices, including nickel prices. The continuous loose supply of pure nickel and weak terminal demand for secondary nickel have to some extent offset the positive impact of the US dollar’s decline, leading to a decline in nickel prices. In terms of supply, due to the continuous loose supply of pure nickel, market inventory continues to accumulate. This gradually returns the price of pure nickel to its cost pricing logic, which is determined based on production costs and market supply and demand. On the other hand, due to the cost inversion of the route for converting nickel iron to electrowinning nickel, the profit from converting nickel sulfate to nickel production has significantly narrowed, which to some extent supports the nickel price.

Overall, the trend of nickel prices is influenced by both macro factors and supply and demand patterns. Despite policy incentives and factors such as tight nickel mines in Indonesia, the long-term downward trend in nickel prices is still difficult to reverse due to issues such as sustained loose supply of pure nickel, weak terminal demand, and continuous inventory accumulation. Nickel is expected to continue to fluctuate widely.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the price of cryolite in Henan region remained stable this week. On October 15th, the average market price in Henan region was 7875 yuan/ton, which is the same as the average price of 7875 yuan/ton on October 9th, with a year-on-year increase of 1.29%.

The cryolite market remains stable at a high level, and manufacturers’ quotations are firm and operating. The supply of upstream products is tight, prices are rising at high levels, and the cost pressure on cryolite is increasing. The market mentality is bullish, but the downstream power is insufficient. There is resistance towards high priced cryolite, and purchasing in the market follows up as needed. The market trading atmosphere is average, and downstream support is weak, which hinders the rise of cryolite. As of October 15th, the factory quotation for cryolite in Shandong region is 7000-8600 yuan/ton; The factory quotation for cryolite in Henan region is between 7200-9000 yuan/ton.

The upstream fluorite market is relatively strong and rising, with an average market price of 3768.75 yuan/ton on October 15th, an increase of 1.34% compared to the price of 3718.75 yuan/ton on October 9th. It is difficult to start upstream raw ore production, fluorite spot is tight, and supply side support is good. The demand side refrigerant market is rising, and demand is driving the price trend of fluorite market to rise.

Future Market Forecast: The upstream price of cryolite is relatively high, with good cost support. The quotation of cryolite enterprises is high and firm, while downstream demand is weak. Market trading is limited, and there is a game between supply and demand on the market, resulting in a stalemate among operators. It is expected that the cryolite market will operate on a wait-and-see basis in the future, with narrow price fluctuations. Specific attention will be paid to changes in manufacturer inventory and downstream acceptance.

The price of plasticizer DBP fluctuated and fell this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of October 13th, the DBP price was 10087.50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.82% from the DBP price of 10275 yuan/ton on October 8th; Compared to the DBP price of 10250 yuan/ton on October 1st, it decreased by 1.25%. This week, the raw material n-butanol fluctuated and fell, the price of phthalic anhydride fluctuated and fell, while the price of isooctanol fluctuated and increased. Cost support weakened, downstream demand was average, and plasticizer DBP enterprises started stable operations. This week, the price of plasticizer DBP fluctuated and fell.

The price of n-butanol fluctuated and fell this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of October 13th, the price of n-butanol was 8850 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.39% compared to the price of 9066.67 yuan/ton on October 8th; The price of n-butanol decreased by 2.39% compared to 9066.67 yuan/ton on October 1st. This week, the factory price of n-butanol has fallen, and n-butanol manufacturers have accumulated inventory. After the holiday, the price of propylene has fluctuated and decreased. n-butanol enterprises have a low acceptance of high priced raw materials, and the cost of n-butanol has decreased. Downstream demand for cautious procurement has increased the pressure on n-butanol prices to decline.

The raw material phthalic anhydride market fluctuated and fell this week

According to the market analysis system for phthalic anhydride products of the Business Society, as of October 13th, the quotation for neighboring phthalic anhydride was 8387.50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.47% compared to the price of 8600 yuan/ton on October 8th. The price of Naifa phthalic anhydride has decreased, the price of ortho benzene has fluctuated and decreased, the cost of phthalic anhydride has decreased, the phthalic anhydride market is operating cautiously, terminal demand remains cold, downstream procurement enthusiasm is poor, and the price of phthalic anhydride has fluctuated and decreased. The cost support for plasticizers has weakened.

Future expectations

Business Society plasticizer product data analysts believe that this week, butanol prices fluctuated and fell, phthalic anhydride prices fluctuated and fell, DBP raw material costs decreased, and DBP downward pressure increased; PVC prices have fluctuated and fallen, with insufficient silver fineness and weak demand for plasticizers. Overall, as costs decrease and demand weakens, the downward pressure on plasticizer DBP increases, and it is expected that DBP prices will fluctuate and fall in the future.

Cobalt prices rebounded and rose after the holiday

According to the cobalt market analysis system of the Business Society, as of October 12th, the cobalt price was 255900 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.35% compared to the cobalt price of 255000 yuan/ton on October 1st. In October, the international cobalt price continued to rise, and the domestic cobalt market was positive. After the holiday, the domestic cobalt price slightly increased.

MB Cobalt Price Rising in October

From the trend chart of MB cobalt price, it can be seen that in September, MB cobalt price stopped falling and rebounded, while in October, cobalt price continued its upward trend in September and slightly increased. The international cobalt market is favorable, which is beneficial for the domestic cobalt market.

Rising sales of new energy vehicles

According to data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, in September 2023, the production and sales of new energy vehicles in China reached 879000 and 904000, respectively, with year-on-year growth of 16.1% and 27.7%, and a market share of 31.6%. From January to September, the production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 6.313 million and 6.278 million, respectively, with year-on-year growth of 33.7% and 37.5%, and a market share of 29.8%. According to data released by the China Passenger Car Association, the domestic passenger car market produced 2.453 million vehicles in September, an increase of 2.3% year-on-year and 8.7% month on month. The cumulative production from January to September was 17.95 million vehicles, an increase of 4.8% year-on-year. The production and sales of new energy vehicles have increased year-on-year, but the growth rate has slowed down. The demand for cobalt in the market has increased, but the growth rate may not meet expectations.

Overview and outlook

According to Bai Jiaxin, a data analyst at Business Society, the production and sales of new energy vehicles have grown, but the growth rate may not meet expectations. International cobalt prices have slightly increased, and the domestic cobalt market is positive. Overall, the supply and demand in the cobalt market have increased, and the rise in international cobalt prices has stimulated domestic cobalt exports. The supply and demand in the cobalt market are relatively balanced, and the cobalt price is expected to fluctuate and consolidate in the future.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the average TDI market price in East China on October 11th was 18900 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.07% compared to the previous working day of 18700 yuan/ton, indicating a strong market performance. After the holiday, the intensive release of TDI factory equipment maintenance news has boosted market sentiment, causing a significant increase in the quoted prices of cargo holders. The market learned that Shanghai Kesichuang has once again closed down due to inventory constraints, and suppliers have a strong intention to support the market. The trade market follows the guidance of the news, and the quoted prices of cargo holders continue to rise.

The downstream side follows up on demand, with strong support from on-site suppliers and a bullish mindset among operators. It is expected that the short-term TDI market will continue to operate strongly, and specific attention will be paid to the downstream follow-up situation.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the domestic PTA market showed a significant decline today (October 9th), with an average market price of 6013 yuan/ton in the East China region, a decrease of 3.22% compared to the previous trading day.

There were many negative news during the National Day holiday, leading to a weakening of PTA prices. Crude oil and PX have plummeted, with significant cost drag. Concerns about interest rate hikes, an increase in bearish inventory from oil producing countries that may increase production in the future, and weak gasoline demand have put pressure on oil prices at high levels. The current market is still relatively abundant in spot goods. In addition, Yisheng Hainan’s 2.5 million ton and Hanbang Petrochemical’s 2.2 million ton new units have been postponed to production in November. The downstream polyester start-up load remains stable at around 85%, and some weaving factories are on vacation, resulting in a slight decrease in start-up load. Domestic and foreign trade orders are also mostly small orders.

Analysts from Business Society believe that with the end of the Asian Games, the polyester production load will rebound to a certain extent, and demand is expected to rebound. It is expected that the short-term PTA price will fluctuate with the raw material end.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, after the 11th National Day holiday, terminal rigid demand has declined, and the hydrogen peroxide market has plummeted by over 30%. On October 8th, the average market price of hydrogen peroxide was 1433 yuan/ton. On October 1st, the average market price of hydrogen peroxide was 2126 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 32.6%.

Negative sentiment suppresses the decline of hydrogen peroxide market

After the Double Festival, the stock market in the terminal printing and papermaking industry has ended, and demand has declined. In addition, the market acceptance of high priced hydrogen peroxide has decreased, resulting in a significant drop in hydrogen peroxide prices. The mainstream quotation for 27.5% hydrogen peroxide in Shandong region dropped to 1500 yuan/ton, while the mainstream quotation for 27.5% hydrogen peroxide in Hebei region dropped to 1300 yuan/ton, and the mainstream quotation for 27.5% hydrogen peroxide in Anhui region dropped to 1500 yuan/ton. The domestic price of 27.5% hydrogen peroxide has decreased by about 500 yuan/ton compared to before the holiday.

Li Bing, an analyst at Business Society Chemical, believes that the bearish situation will be suppressed, and terminal rigid demand will decline. The future market for hydrogen peroxide will still be dominated by a decline.

The price of aluminum fluoride increases after the holiday

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of October 7th, the domestic quotation for aluminum fluoride was 10350 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.97% compared to the price of aluminum fluoride on October 1st, which was 10150 yuan/ton. After the holiday, the prices of raw materials such as fluorite and hydrofluoric acid fluctuated and increased, resulting in higher costs. Aluminum fluoride also rose after the holiday.

Rising prices of raw materials

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of October 7th, the price of fluorite was 3662.50 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.17% compared to the price of fluorite on October 1st, which was 3550 yuan/ton. As of October 7th, the price of hydrofluoric acid was 11383.33 yuan/ton, an increase of 7.56% compared to the price of hydrofluoric acid on October 1st, which was 10583.33 yuan/ton. After the holiday, the resources of fluorite mines remain tight, with low inventory of fluorite merchants and tight supply, resulting in an increase in fluorite prices; Downstream refrigerant prices have increased, demand has increased, coupled with rising raw material prices, leading to an increase in the price of hydrofluoric acid. The prices of raw materials such as fluorite and hydrofluoric acid have increased, resulting in rising costs. The support for the future price increase of aluminum fluoride has increased.

Market Overview and Forecast

Analysts from the fluoride aluminum industry at the Business Society believe that after the holiday, the prices of hydrofluoric acid and fluorite fluctuate and rise, and the cost support for fluoride aluminum increases. In the future, rising costs are good for boosting, while the rise of aluminum fluoride is more supportive. It is expected that the price of aluminum fluoride will fluctuate and rise in the future.