This week, the price of 441 # metal silicon continued to be under pressure. As of November 6th, the average price in the domestic metal silicon market was 15420 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.52% compared to the previous week. This week, the electricity prices in the main southern production areas increased, and some factories are not willing to sell at low prices. However, due to the concentrated cancellation of warehouse receipts and the decline in downstream polycrystalline silicon prices, the cost side is unable to support silicon prices. In terms of futures, in the second half of this week, futures weakened, with SI2401 rising or falling 0.43% throughout the week, closing at 14120 yuan/ton.

The price of 441 # silicon in various regions on the 6th is as follows:

The price range of # 441 metal silicon in the Huangpu Port area is 15200-15400 yuan/ton, with an average price of 15300 yuan/ton; The price range of # 441 metal silicon in Tianjin Port area is 15200 to 15300 yuan/ton, with an average of 15250 yuan/ton; The price range of # 441 metal silicon in Kunming region is 15400-15500 yuan/ton, with an average price of 15450 yuan/ton; The price range of # 441 metallic silicon in Sichuan region is 15100-15300 yuan/ton, with an average price of 15200 yuan/ton; The price range of Shanghai # 441 metal silicon is 15800-16000 yuan/ton, with an average price of 15900 yuan/ton.

Factors Influencing the Price of Silicon Metal

On the supply side:

As of November 2nd, there were 434 silicon metal furnaces operating in China, with an overall furnace opening rate of 59.53%, a decrease of 4 furnaces compared to the previous month. The resumption of production and work in the northern region continues, while the abundant water period in the southwestern region ends. Electricity prices have increased, production costs have increased, and silicon factories have chosen to suspend production and work. However, it is currently in a small range and has little impact on the overall supply.

In terms of inventory:

As of November 3rd, the total social inventory was 359000 tons, an increase of 8000 tons compared to last week. Among them, Huangpu Port has 29000 tons, a decrease of 1000 tons compared to last week; Kunming has 48000 tons, an increase of 3000 tons compared to last week, and the delivery warehouse in Kunming has 75000 tons, a decrease of 1000 tons compared to last week; Tianjin Port has 38000 tons, with an increase of 0.1 compared to the surrounding area.

In terms of demand:

This week, the domestic polycrystalline silicon market further declined, and the mainstream range of single crystal dense materials with a model of primary solar grade is currently maintained at 7.0-7.5 yuan/ton. The supply pressure in the silicon material market has increased, and the accumulated inventory in the later stage has not ended. There is still a possibility for enterprises to continue to lower prices. Silicon material enterprises have severely pressured raw material procurement, and the industrial chain has transmitted pressure on metal silicon.

The overall market situation of organic silicon DMC is weak and has a narrow downward trend, with a market price reference of 14580 yuan/ton. Although there is a strong wait-and-see sentiment in the downstream and overall demand is generally supported, there has been no significant fluctuation in the market of leading large factories, and the overall market price adjustment space is limited.

The price of aluminum alloy has fluctuated and adjusted, with a slight correction in the price of aluminum alloy ADC12. The current quotation is 19600 yuan/ton. At present, aluminum factories are consuming raw material inventory, and small and medium-sized factories have low enthusiasm for starting operations, while purchasing metal silicon is passive.

Future Market Forecast

Overall, the number of furnace openings decreased this week, but warehouse orders were cancelled in November, putting supply under pressure from concentrated selling. The downward adjustment in downstream polycrystalline silicon prices has dragged down metal silicon prices, and the short-term metal silicon market remains under pressure. In the future, we can pay attention to the progress of Southwest Silicon Factory’s production reduction.

Zinc prices fluctuate and rise this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of November 3rd, the zinc price was 21520 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.88% compared to the zinc price of 21122 yuan/ton on October 27th last weekend. Nesta suspended the operations of two zinc mines in the United States, resulting in a decrease in zinc concentrate processing costs, continuous tightening of zinc mine production, reduced supply expectations in the zinc market, and fluctuating zinc prices.

Reduction in zinc concentrate processing costs

From the trend chart of zinc concentrate processing fees, it can be seen that in October, the zinc concentrate processing fees rapidly decreased, and the domestic zinc ore production is expected to decrease. On the domestic smelting end, smelters do not stop production all year except for maintenance. Currently, there is still profit space for smelters under processing fees. Smelters are actively storing in winter, and the production of zinc smelters is expected to increase. The domestic zinc market supply is expected to be stable.

Nesta to suspend operations at two zinc mines in the United States

According to Nyrstar, due to weak prices and inflation, the company plans to temporarily close two zinc mines in Tennessee by the end of November, which is expected to affect production of 40000 to 50000 tons of zinc mines. As early as mid June 2023, Swedish mining company Boliden announced the suspension of production at Tara, the largest Irish zinc mine in Europe, which produces approximately 103200 metal tons of zinc concentrate annually; In mid February, an accident occurred at one of the world’s top ten zinc mines, the Dugard River mine in Queensland, Australia, and operations were suspended. In 2023, multiple zinc mine manufacturers have suspended their zinc mine business multiple times, leading to an expected decrease in zinc mine production and a decrease in zinc market supply.

Global Zinc Production

The global zinc production in 2022 is approximately 12.8 million tons, and it is expected to recover in 2023, an increase of 2.0% compared to 2022. Nyrstar has announced the suspension of its zinc mine production. Its 40000 to 50000 tons of zinc mine production accounts for a relatively small proportion of the global total zinc mine production, and it is expected to have little impact on the supply of zinc in the market. However, the suspension of zinc mine production has a certain impact on the sentiment of the zinc market, and zinc prices will support an increase in the short term.

Future Market Forecast

Data analysts from Business Society believe that the Federal Reserve has not raised interest rates as scheduled, and non-ferrous and precious metals have generally risen; Nyrstar Company closed two zinc mines in Tennessee, and due to the shutdown of zinc mines, bullish sentiment in the zinc market surged. London zinc rose sharply on the night trading, while Shanghai zinc rose 2.5%; The decrease in zinc concentrate processing fees has affected the supply of zinc in the market, but zinc smelters are actively storing in winter, and the production of zinc in the market is expected to steadily increase. Overall, the macro outlook is positive, with a general increase in non-ferrous metals, a halt in zinc mine production, and a decrease in zinc concentrate processing fees. The expected decrease in zinc smelting production is expected, but zinc smelters are actively storing in winter, with stable supply expectations in the zinc market. The short-term zinc market is bullish, and the medium to long-term zinc price expectations are expected to fluctuate and consolidate.

Product name: Isooctanol

Latest price (November 1st): 11460.00/ton

On November 1st, the market price of isooctanol in Shandong Province significantly decreased, with a price drop of 660 yuan/ton compared to October 31st, a decrease of 5.45%, and a year-on-year increase of 24.57%. Upstream propylene prices have slightly increased, with good cost support. The downstream DOP market has slightly declined, and downstream demand has slowed down. Enterprises are operating at a high level, with severe inventory accumulation, and large factories are lowering prices to attract orders.

Recently, the market price of isooctanol in Shandong region may fluctuate slightly, with an average market price of around 11200 yuan/ton.

The center of gravity of aluminum prices moved down in October

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of October 31, 2023, the average price of domestic aluminum ingots in the East China market was 19093.33 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.84% compared to the aluminum price of 19856.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month (October 1).

In the long term, the current price is in a sideways range after a high decline. Since May, the price has been fluctuating below 19000 yuan/ton, breaking through 19000 yuan/ton at the end of August. In September, aluminum prices first fell and then rose, and in October, the center of gravity of aluminum prices returned to around 19000 yuan/ton.

Overview of Fundamentals

Expected reduction in production at the supply end

Supply side: There is news on the market that Yunnan will reduce production recently. Relevant departments in Yunnan Province and electrolytic aluminum departments have jointly met to discuss the electricity consumption situation in the industry during the dry season. Electrolytic aluminum enterprises in the province are expected to reduce production by 22%. Next week, the production reduction ratio of each electrolytic aluminum factory will be determined and implemented, with a production reduction scale of up to one million tons. In addition, the remaining 200000 tons of new production capacity of Baiyinhua Aluminum Power will be electrified and put into operation. Overall, the operating capacity of domestic electrolytic aluminum is expected to decrease.

There is a weakening pressure on the demand side

In the peak season of October, the performance did not meet expectations, and there were insufficient new orders. The off-season pressure is beginning to show, and future demand is facing weak pressure. The orders for building profiles have slightly increased, but the overall strength of the building profile sector is still weak. In the industrial profile sector, orders for photovoltaic profiles have significantly decreased due to the continued weakness of the photovoltaic industry chain, while automotive profiles have remained stable.

Narrow fluctuation in cost

Cost side: The spot market for alumina continues to rise due to supply side production cuts. The prices of coal at ports and pitheads have shown a downward trend, and the mainstream self owned power plants in Shandong have once again lowered their coal procurement prices for November. The immediate full cost of electrolytic aluminum is around 16231 yuan/ton, a month on month increase of 33 yuan/ton. The recent pressure on coal prices has to some extent limited the expected increase in future electricity costs for electrolytic aluminum. In addition, the expected decrease in procurement prices for auxiliary materials such as pre baked anodes in November is expected to hedge against a slight increase in alumina, and it is expected that the short-term domestic electrolytic aluminum cost will mainly fluctuate within a narrow range.

Inventory increased month on month

In terms of social inventory, following the start of destocking in the second half of July, inventory is relatively low. As of October 30th, the social inventory of mainstream electrolytic aluminum ingots in China was 612000 tons, with a cumulative inventory of 57000 tons compared to October 7th. Based on year-on-year data, it is close to the 636000 tons in the same period of last year’s post holiday history and still at a low level in the same period of the past five years.

Future market forecast

Electrolytic aluminum production enterprises mainly maintain stable production and have large operating capacity. Currently, there is a surplus of aluminum ingot inventory after the holiday, and the supply of aluminum ingots is sufficient, which suppresses aluminum prices. However, the demand in the downstream peak season is partially fulfilled, with strong cost support and narrowed downward space. There are expected production cuts and bonuses in the near future, and aluminum prices may fluctuate slightly in November.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the price of boric acid increased in October. As of October 30th, the average price of boric acid in the domestic market was 7562.50 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.17% compared to the beginning of the month, but a decrease of 6.64% compared to the beginning of the year, which was 8100 yuan/ton. At present, the quotation range of domestic boric acid traders is between 7100 to 7800 yuan/ton (the actual transaction price of different brands, specifications, and products is mainly negotiated).

At present, the external quotation for imported goods is concentrated between 7800 to 8500 yuan/ton (the actual transaction price of different brands, specifications, and products is mainly negotiated). According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the average market price of imported boric acid is 8192.86 yuan/ton, which remains unchanged compared to the average market price at the beginning of the month.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic polyester staple fiber market maintained a slight decline this week (October 23-27). As of October 27, the average price of 1.4D * 38mm in mainstream factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was 7642 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.91% compared to the beginning of the week.

Recently, crude oil prices have fluctuated repeatedly around the conflict between Palestine and Israel, as well as expectations of weak demand. On October 26th, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was at $83.21 per barrel, while the settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was at 87.05 yuan per barrel. Hengli’s 2.2 million ton PTA device has been delayed in restarting and contract goods have been reduced, resulting in a reduction in supply. This week, the domestic PTA market has stopped falling and slightly rebounded. As of October 27th, the average market price in East China was 5875 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.42% compared to the beginning of the week.

As the end of October approaches, terminals are gradually weakening, and the “Double Eleven” and Christmas promotion effects are limited, resulting in insufficient motivation to undertake new orders. After the inventory of textile enterprises increased, recent discounts have increased, and the price of pure polyester yarn has remained stable and weak. As of October 27th, the reference price for pure polyester yarn in the Shandong region was 12775 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.58% compared to the beginning of the week. With the weakening of raw material prices, the enthusiasm for restocking has decreased, and only the demand for goods has been maintained.

Analysts from Business Society believe that in the future, increased supply and weak demand will create a drag on the polyester staple fiber market. Recently, there is a new device feeding plan for polyester staple fibers, and it is expected that the construction trend will improve and the supply will increase. Superimposed, the traditional peak season market in the downstream is approaching its end, and entering November, the demand for the textile market will significantly weaken, and the demand for polyester staple fibers will gradually decrease. It is expected that the short-term polyester staple fiber market will still be dominated by weak adjustments.

Continuing the upward trend of “Gold Nine”, the domestic phosphorus ore market “Silver Ten” continues to rise and operate. After the end of the October National Day holiday, the overall domestic phosphorus ore market continued to approach a high level. On October 26th, the market price of 30 grade phosphorus ore once again broke through the thousand yuan mark, with a reference price of around 1008 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.92% compared to early October. At present, the difference between high and low prices in the phosphate rock field has narrowed, and the overall market performance is still good.

The main influencing factors for the upward trend of phosphate rock market:

On the supply side: Currently, the overall supply of phosphorus ore in China is still tight, with some regions experiencing tight spot inventory of medium to high grade ores and relatively low overall spot circulation on the market. Therefore, the supply side continues to support the overall focus of the phosphorus ore market to move upwards.

In terms of demand: Currently, the downstream demand for phosphate ore is acceptable. Although the opening of terminal winter storage is relatively slow, the downstream demand is still relatively stable, providing some support to the phosphate ore market. Currently, some mining enterprises mainly receive pre orders, and the overall market shipment situation is good.

Prediction and Analysis of the Future Market Trend of Phosphate Rock

At present, the trading atmosphere inside the phosphate ore field is mild, and the supply and demand transmission is relatively smooth. It is expected that the narrow upward trend of the terminal potassium fertilizer and phosphate ammonium market will provide some support to the market from bottom to bottom. The phosphate ore data analyst of the Business Society believes that in the short term, the domestic phosphate ore market will mostly operate in a stable to strong manner, and the specific trend needs to pay more attention to the impact of factors such as demand and downstream shipments.

The center of gravity of aluminum prices moved down in October

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, on October 24, 2023, the average price of domestic aluminum ingots in the East China market was 18930 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 0.37%. Compared to the beginning of the month (October 1), the aluminum price was 19856.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.67%.

In the long term, the current price is in a sideways range after a high decline. Since May, the price has been fluctuating below 19000 yuan/ton, breaking through 19000 yuan/ton at the end of August. In September, aluminum prices first fell and then rose, and in October, the center of gravity of aluminum prices returned to below 19000 yuan/ton.

Overview of Fundamentals

Loose supply

Supply side: Recently, a certain electrolytic aluminum enterprise in Inner Mongolia has added 200000 tons of production capacity and is gradually entering the production cycle. It is expected to reach full production by December. Electrolytic aluminum enterprises in the southwest region are basically resuming production, and we will pay attention to whether the precipitation in the southwest region in November will once again interfere with production. At present, the wave of resuming production has basically ended, and the overall supply is relatively loose.

The demand side rebounded month on month and decreased year-on-year

In terms of demand: Last week, the operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises increased by 1.2 percentage points compared to the week before the holiday to 64.5%, a decrease of 2.7 percentage points compared to the same period last year.

Due to the entry of cables into the industry’s centralized delivery period, the terminal pickup volume has significantly increased, driving a significant increase in operating rates; The operating rates of aluminum strip and aluminum foil plates have slightly increased; The recycled aluminum alloy sector is mainly due to the resumption of normal production and a rebound in operating levels after the holiday, but actual demand has not significantly increased yet. However, only the operating rate of the profile sector has declined, especially the construction profile sector is relatively weak.

Cost escalation

Cost side: The price of raw alumina continues to rise slightly, coupled with the strengthening of coal prices, resulting in an increase in the cost of electrolytic aluminum.

Inventory increased month on month

In terms of social inventory, following the start of destocking in the second half of July, inventory is relatively low. As of October 23rd, the social inventory of mainstream areas of domestic electrolytic aluminum ingots was 630000 tons, with a cumulative inventory of 130000 tons compared to the end of September. Based on year-on-year data, it is close to the 636000 tons in the same period of history after last year’s holiday, and still at a low level in the same period of nearly five years.

LME aluminum inventory: As of October 23, LME aluminum inventory decreased by 2000 tons to 486450 tons compared to the previous trading day.

Future market forecast

Electrolytic aluminum production enterprises mainly maintain stable production and have large operating capacity. Currently, there is a surplus of aluminum ingot inventory after the holiday, and the supply of aluminum ingots is sufficient to suppress aluminum prices. However, the demand in the downstream peak season is partially fulfilled, and the cost support is strong. It is expected that in the short term, the probability of aluminum price fluctuations and sideways operation will increase.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the average market price of chlorinated paraffin 52 in China was 5800 yuan/ton on October 16th. On October 23rd, the average market price of chlorinated paraffin 52 in China was 5866 yuan/ton, and the price of chlorinated paraffin increased by 1.15% this week.

2、 Market analysis

The market price of chlorinated paraffin has increased this week. This week, the price of raw material liquid wax fluctuated and decreased, while the price of raw material liquid chlorine increased. The cost side was mixed. Downstream on-demand procurement, procurement needs are cautious, and market transactions are average. As of October 23rd, the factory quotation for chlorinated paraffin 52 in Anhui region is about 6300 yuan/ton, while the factory quotation for chlorinated paraffin 52 in Shandong region is about 5100-5900 yuan/ton.

In terms of raw material liquid wax, the price of liquid wax fluctuated and decreased this week, and liquid wax fluctuated with the crude oil market. In terms of raw material liquid chlorine, the price of liquid chlorine rose this week and stabilized before falling. The market situation was unstable, with consolidation and operation being the main focus.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Chlorinated paraffin analysts from Business Society believe that recent fluctuations in raw material prices have supported high costs. Downstream demand is weak, market transactions are weak, and terminal demand needs to be released. It is expected that the short-term price of chlorinated paraffin will be slightly adjusted and operated, and it is recommended to pay attention to changes in the raw material market.

According to data monitored by Business Society, as of October 20th, the price of high-quality power type lithium iron phosphate was 67600 yuan/ton, a slight decrease of 0.88% compared to the same period last week. Currently, the mainstream price is around 67000 yuan/ton, mainly for contract customers, and new orders are not accepted.

This week, the stable operation of lithium iron phosphate is the main focus. The price for the same period last week was 68200 yuan/ton, and the current mainstream price is around 67000 yuan/ton. The overall market is stable and weak, with downstream restocking on demand and average demand. Upstream lithium carbonate is stable and weak, and the cost side of lithium iron phosphate is not strong. In the short term, lithium carbonate will maintain its previous trend, with manufacturers only supplying old customers and new customers not taking orders.

Chemical Commodity Index: On October 20th, the chemical index stood at 910 points, a decrease of 4 points from yesterday, a decrease of 35.00% from the cycle’s highest point of 1400 points (2021-10-23), and an increase of 52.17% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8th, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1st, 2011 to the present).

Analysts from Business Society believe that the lithium iron phosphate market will operate steadily and weakly in the short term.