Price trend

In mid November, the domestic PA6 market rebounded in a narrow range, with some spot prices rising. According to data monitoring from Business News Agency, as of November 20th, the mixed benchmark price of PA6 in China was 14475 yuan/ton, a decrease of -0.34% compared to the average price level at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

In terms of raw materials:

From the above figure, it can be seen that the market price of caprolactam increased in mid November. The price of raw material pure benzene has increased, which is beneficial for cost support. Some enterprises have reduced the load of caprolactam units and reduced market supply. Downstream procurement is on demand, and the demand side is relatively stable. In the future, the supply of pure benzene and caprolactam is showing a rebound trend, and it is expected that the price of caprolactam may temporarily stabilize in the short term.

On the supply side:

In mid November, the load of PA6 production enterprises slightly increased, with an average operating rate of around 75% in the interval. The market supply is almost flat compared to the previous period, and there is ample supply of goods on the market. The inventory level has taken on the previous low level, and there has been no significant increase in supplier pressure. The support for PA6 spot goods still exists.

In terms of demand: Downstream, the load of the weaving and spinning industries has fluctuated slightly and remained stable, with an average load position of around 66% and 81%, respectively. In terms of terminal enterprises, their willingness to stock up in the middle of the year is average, with only some enterprises making pre orders, and overall, their acceptance of high priced goods is not good. Trading is concentrated near maintaining production demand, with replenishment prices mostly centered around the low end, and overall support for the demand side of PA6 chips is weak.

Future Market Forecast

In mid November, the PA6 market rebounded in a narrow range. The price of caprolactam has increased, and the cost support for PA6 has increased. The demand side is cautious in picking up goods, and market trading tends towards the low end. The domestic polymerization plant has seen a narrow increase in load, and the inventory position remains low. The polymerization plant has a strong willingness to raise prices. It is expected that the PA6 market will continue to consolidate in the short term.

According to the monitoring of Business Society, since November, the hydrogen peroxide market has continued to decline weakly, with a decline of over 21%. At the beginning of the month, the average market price of hydrogen peroxide was 1150 yuan/ton. On November 17th, the average market price of hydrogen peroxide was 900 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 21.74%.

market analysis

After November, the demand for terminal printing and papermaking decreased, and the hydrogen peroxide market continued to decline weakly, with the mainstream market price dropping to 900 yuan/ton. The average market price of hydrogen peroxide in Shandong region is 900 yuan/ton; The average market price of hydrogen peroxide in Hebei region is 850 yuan/ton; Hydrogen peroxide in Anhui region is 950 yuan/ton; The overall decline in the market compared to the beginning of the month is 150-200 yuan/ton.

Future prospects

Business Society Hydrogen Peroxide Analysts believe that the low season of terminal demand is expected to put pressure on the future hydrogen peroxide market.

Product name: isobutyraldehyde

Latest price (November 16th): 7683.33 yuan/ton

On November 16th, the domestic market price of isobutyraldehyde slightly increased, increasing by 133.33 yuan/ton or 1.77% compared to November 15th, with a year-on-year increase of 18.21%. The price of raw material propylene has slightly decreased, with average cost support. The downstream market for neopentyl glycol has slightly declined, and downstream customers’ enthusiasm for purchasing isobutyraldehyde has weakened. Some manufacturers have stopped for maintenance, resulting in a decrease in the circulation of goods in the market, and some dealers have raised their prices.

In the future, it is expected that the domestic market price of isobutyraldehyde may fluctuate and rise, with consolidation being the main focus. The average market price is around 7700 yuan/ton.

Aluminum fluoride prices stabilized this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of November 15th, the domestic quotation for aluminum fluoride was 11450 yuan/ton, which is stable compared to the price of aluminum fluoride on November 7th last week, which was 11450 yuan/ton. Cost pressure has weakened, demand support is limited, and aluminum fluoride prices have stabilized this week.

Reduced cost pressure

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of November 15th, the price of fluorite was 3700 yuan/ton, which is stable compared to the price of fluorite on November 7th, which was 3700 yuan/ton. As of November 15th, the price of hydrofluoric acid was 11183.33 yuan/ton, which was stable compared to the price of hydrofluoric acid on November 7th, which was 11183.33 yuan/ton. The construction of fluorite mines is poor, downstream demand is sluggish, the fluorite market is stagnant, and fluorite prices are temporarily stable. Recently, some units of hydrofluoric acid manufacturers are still in shutdown, and there has been little change in the spot supply of hydrofluoric acid. The downstream orders of hydrofluoric acid from manufacturers are not good, and the export of hydrofluoric acid is relatively weak. In the future, hydrofluoric acid prices may remain low. The low price of raw materials remains stable, the cost of aluminum fluoride raw materials is stabilizing, and the cost pressure on aluminum fluoride is weakening.

Market Overview and Forecast

Analysts from the fluoride aluminum industry at Business Society believe that the low prices of hydrofluoric acid and fluorite have temporarily stabilized this week, and the cost of aluminum fluoride has stabilized. However, the operating load of fluorite and hydrofluoric acid enterprises is generally low, and the cost support for aluminum fluoride still exists; Yunnan faces power restrictions, expected decrease in electrolytic aluminum production, and a decrease in demand for aluminum fluoride; Aluminum fluoride enterprises are operating at a low level, and the supply of aluminum fluoride is shrinking. Aluminum fluoride manufacturers still have a willingness to raise prices. Overall, the supply and demand of aluminum fluoride are weak, and the cost is expected to stabilize. It is expected that the price of aluminum fluoride will stabilize in the future.

Product name: isopropanol

Latest price: 7660 yuan/ton

Key points of analysis: On November 14th, the market price of isopropanol bottomed out and rebounded, improving the trading atmosphere on the market. The upstream acetone market price has stabilized, driving confidence in the isopropanol market. Downstream enterprises are increasing their inquiries, purchasing is relatively cautious, and the market focus is slightly upward. Overall, the market trading is relatively active.

It is expected that the isopropanol market will be mainly strong in the short term.

Product name: Sulfur

Latest price: On November 13th, the average sulfur price in East China was 1003.33 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.44% compared to the previous working day price of 970.00 yuan/ton.

Analysis: The domestic sulfur market is operating strongly, with sulfur refining plants operating normally, stable market supply, optimistic downstream mentality, increased enthusiasm for entering the market to obtain goods, smooth factory shipments, reduced inventory, and refineries increasing sulfur prices by 30-40 yuan/ton based on their own inventory situation.

Future forecast: The market supply is stable, and downstream demand is well supported. It is expected that the short-term sulfur market will be strong and organized, with narrow price fluctuations.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the price of cryolite in Henan region remained stable this week. On November 10th, the average market price in Henan region was 7775 yuan/ton, which is the same as the average price of 7775 yuan/ton on November 6th at the beginning of the week, with a month on month decrease of 1.27%.

This week’s cryolite market is on the sidelines, with upstream product prices remaining unchanged, cryolite costs stabilizing, and downstream demand for goods continuing to be weak. There is still resistance towards high priced cryolite, and manufacturers are shipping according to demand. The market trading atmosphere is average, and the supply and demand on the market are relatively balanced. The quotation of cryolite manufacturers is temporarily stable. As of November 10th, the factory quotation for cryolite in Shandong region is 7000-8600 yuan/ton; The factory quotation for cryolite in Henan region is between 7200-8800 yuan/ton, and the price range remains unchanged.

The upstream fluorite market is operating steadily, with an average market price of 3700 yuan/ton on November 10th, which is unchanged from the price of 3700 yuan/ton on November 6th. The supply of raw ore is still tight, and the spot fluorite continues to be tight. The demand side refrigerant trend is temporarily stable, and the downstream market is not good. Manufacturers ship as needed, and the fluorite market price remains stable.

Future Market Forecast: Upstream supply is tight, production of cryolite enterprises is under pressure, equipment maintains low load operation, market supply is rational, downstream purchasing enthusiasm on the demand side is average, demand support is limited, and due to cost impact, cryolite prices will remain stable. It is expected that the short-term cryolite market will operate on a wait-and-see basis, with specific attention paid to changes in manufacturer inventory and downstream acceptance.

According to the analysis system of the commodity market of the Business Society, as of November 9th, the average price of PMMA, a general transparent and high-quality product in China, was 14566.67 yuan/ton. This week, the price of PMMA showed a narrow and weak trend, with a price drop of 0.23% compared to the same period last week. Downstream demand procurement was the main focus, and negotiations remained stable.

This week, the general transparent grade premium product PMMA in China showed a stable and weak trend, with prices dropping by 0.23% compared to the same period last week. The purchasing atmosphere is average, and downstream demand is insufficient. Currently, the quotation range of mainstream manufacturers is still around 14600 yuan/ton. The operating rate is stable, and the overall market supply and demand is balanced. Manufacturers are willing to give up profits and take orders, and the cost support is weak. Downstream procurement is mainly based on demand, and there is no obvious willingness to hoard, Enterprise quotation: Shanghai Hongqi Plastic Technology Co., Ltd. 14800 yuan/ton.

Rubber and Plastic Index: On November 9th, the rubber and plastic index was 677 points, a decrease of 1 point from yesterday, a decrease of 36.13% from the highest point in the cycle of 1060 points (2012-03-14), and an increase of 28.22% from the lowest point of 528 points on April 6th, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1st, 2011 to the present).

PMMA analysts from Business Society believe that in the short term, PMMA will remain weak and stable, with a limited range of price fluctuations.

Aluminum prices slightly rebounded on November 8th

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the average price of domestic aluminum ingots in the East China market on November 8, 2023 was 19240 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.33% compared to the aluminum price of 19176.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month (November 1).

In the long term, the current price is in a sideways range after a high decline. Since May, the price has been fluctuating below 19000 yuan/ton, breaking through 19000 yuan/ton at the end of August. In September, aluminum prices first fell and then rose, and in October, the center of gravity of aluminum prices returned to around 19000 yuan/ton.

At present, electrolytic aluminum production enterprises mainly maintain stable production and have a large operating capacity. The current aluminum ingot inventory has accumulated after the holiday, and the supply of aluminum ingots is sufficient, which has suppressed aluminum prices. However, the demand in the downstream peak season has partially fulfilled, with strong cost support and narrowed downward space. There is an expected increase in production reduction in the near future, and aluminum prices may fluctuate slightly in November.

According to data monitoring by Business Society, as of November 7, 2023, the domestic market price of butanone was referenced at 7566 yuan/ton. Compared with November 1, 2023 (reference price of butanone was 8100 yuan/ton), the price was reduced by 534 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6.56%.

From the data monitoring chart of Business Society, it can be seen that since the fourth quarter, the overall market situation of domestic butanone has been weak and declining. Entering November, the decline in the butanone market has not stopped, and downstream demand continues to be weak. The overall focus of the butanone market continues to move towards a low level. As of November 7th, the domestic butanone market price is referenced around 7100-7600 yuan/ton, while the high level price is referenced around 8000 yuan/ton, with a drop of over 6% within seven days.

Factors influencing the downward trend of butanone market:

In terms of demand: Currently, the inquiry atmosphere on the butanone market is light, and the overall follow-up of downstream demand is insufficient. There are few new orders and transactions, and the support provided by the demand side to the market is limited. The mentality of the operators is average, and the wait-and-see atmosphere on the market is strong.

On the supply side: Due to the recent overall boost in downstream demand in the butanone market, the overall performance has been poor. The pace of butanone shipment is slow, and the supply pressure from butanone factories and suppliers is gradually increasing. Therefore, the support provided by the supply side to butanone is also limited.

In terms of cost: Currently, the overall performance of the C4 market for butanone raw material ether is weak, and it is difficult to provide stable support for butanone at the cost side.

Prediction and Analysis of the Future Market of Butanone

At present, the domestic butanone trading atmosphere on the market is still relatively light, with insufficient support from both the demand side and the cost side. It has been heard that some devices have plans to start operating in the near future, and the overall operating rate may increase again. The butanone data analyst from the Business Society believes that in the short term, there is still a narrow downward risk in the domestic butanone market, and the specific trend needs to pay more attention to specific news changes on the supply and demand side.