1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of May 11th, the reference average price of 85% thermal phosphoric acid in China was 6550 yuan/ton, which is a decrease of 5.35% compared to the reference average price of 6920 yuan/ton on May 4th.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of May 11th, the reference average price of 85% wet process phosphoric acid in China was 6683 yuan/ton, which is 3.84% lower than the reference average price of 6950 yuan/ton on May 4th.

2、 Market analysis

The price of phosphoric acid market continued to decline this week. The prices of raw phosphorus ore and yellow phosphorus continue to decline, with weak cost support. Downstream demand continues to be sluggish, market transactions are poor, and the bearish sentiment in the phosphoric acid market is strong. As of May 11th, the factory quotation for 85% thermal phosphoric acid in Sichuan region is around 5900-6500 yuan/ton, while the factory quotation for 85% thermal phosphoric acid in Yunnan region is around 6500 yuan/ton, and the factory quotation for 85% thermal phosphoric acid in Hubei region is around 6350-6450 yuan/ton. The domestic market quotation for 85% wet process phosphoric acid is around 6350-7100 yuan/ton.

In terms of raw material yellow phosphorus, the price of Yunnan Guizhou yellow phosphorus market fell this week. At present, the overall market trading situation of yellow phosphorus is poor, and the demand on the market continues to be weak. The inventory on site is under pressure, and some enterprises are stopping for maintenance to alleviate the pressure. The manufacturer will not provide a quotation to the public for the time being, and will discuss the actual order in detail. Downstream procurement is more cautious, with lower prices and a downward focus on the transaction price of new orders. As of now, the mainstream quotation is around 20000 yuan/ton, and the actual transaction is negotiable.

In terms of raw phosphorus ore, the overall domestic phosphorus ore market has been weak and declining this week, with the overall focus of the market exploring downward. At present, although the overall support for the supply side of phosphate rock in China is still acceptable, the overall operating rate downstream of the phosphate rock industry chain is relatively low, and the demand for phosphate rock in some regions has weakened. The overall atmosphere in phosphate rock yards is average, and some mining companies have lowered the prices of mid to high-end grade phosphate rock by around 20-50 yuan/ton.

3、 Future Market Forecast

According to phosphoric acid analysts from Business Society, the phosphoric acid market has remained weak in recent days, with raw material prices decreasing and cost side support weakening. Downstream demand is weak, and the mentality of buying up instead of buying down has increased, with a focus on wait-and-see. Under the influence of negative factors, the phosphoric acid market price is expected to continue to decline in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the commodity market analysis system of business cooperatives, the average price of domestic liquid caprolactam market was 12683 yuan/ton on May 1, and 12666 yuan/ton on May 8. Caprolactam prices fell 0.13% this week.

2、 Market analysis

Caprolactam market fell in shock this week. The price of raw material pure benzene has decreased, weakening cost support. Some caprolactam enterprises have reduced market supply and supply of goods due to equipment maintenance. However, downstream demand performance is insufficient, with on-demand procurement being the main focus and weak market transactions.

The price of raw material pure benzene continued to decline this week. On May 8th, the domestic price of pure benzene ranged from 7050 to 7330 yuan/ton, with an average price of 7163 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.63% compared to last week. As of May 8th, Sinopec Group North China region: Qilu Petrochemical quoted 7300 yuan/ton, Shijiazhuang Refining and Chemical quoted 7300 yuan/ton, and Tianjin Petrochemical quoted 7300 yuan/ton.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Caprolactam analysts from the business community believe that the price of raw material pure benzene has weakened recently, and the cost side support is weak. Insufficient follow-up at the terminal and insufficient market transactions. It is expected that caprolactam market price will be slightly adjusted and operated in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the average market price of chlorinated paraffin 52 in China on May 1st was 5533 yuan/ton. On May 6th, the average market price of chlorinated paraffin 52 in China was 5500 yuan/ton, and the price of chlorinated paraffin 52 decreased by 0.60% this week.

2、 Market analysis

Chlorinated paraffin market prices fell this week. This week, the prices of raw material liquid chlorine and liquid wax continued to decline, with insufficient cost support. Downstream demand is weak, market transactions are weak, and the industry is mainly bearish. As of May 6th, the ex factory quotation for chlorinated paraffin 52 in Anhui region is about 6000 yuan/ton, the ex factory quotation for chlorinated paraffin 52 in Northeast region is about 5500-5800 yuan/ton, and the ex factory quotation for chlorinated paraffin 52 in Shandong region is about 4500-5200 yuan/ton.

In terms of raw material liquid wax, the price of liquid wax continued to decline this week, and the market downturn continued. Liquid wax fluctuated with the crude oil market. In terms of raw material liquid chlorine, the price of liquid chlorine in Shandong region has been continuously declining this week, resulting in a cold trading atmosphere and weak market performance.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Chlorinated paraffin analysts from Business Society believe that the market for raw material liquid chlorine and liquid wax has continued to weaken recently, weakening cost support. The terminal demand is sluggish, with small purchases and relatively few transactions. It is expected that the market price of chlorinated paraffin will fall in the short term.

After the holiday, the plasticizer DOP rose in response

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the prices of plasticizer products have skyrocketed after the holiday. As of May 4th, the price of DOP was 10367.50 yuan/ton, a sharp increase of 6.78% compared to the price of 9709.17 yuan/ton on May 1st; On May 4th, the price of DOTP was 10361 yuan/ton, an increase of 5.61% compared to the price of 9811 yuan/ton on May 1st; On May 4th, the DBP price was 9525 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.11% compared to the price of 9237.50 yuan/ton on May 1st. During the May Day holiday, equipment malfunctions occurred in isooctanol manufacturers. After the holiday, the price of isooctanol skyrocketed, and the prices of raw materials skyrocketed. In response, the price of plasticizers skyrocketed after the holiday.

The price of isooctanol skyrocketed after the holiday

From the comparison of prices of major isooctanol manufacturers before and after the May Day holiday, it can be seen that the prices of major isooctanol enterprises have skyrocketed after the holiday. Due to the impact of hydrogen peroxide equipment accidents, it has been difficult to ship isooctanol, resulting in a surge in isooctanol prices, a significant increase in the cost of plasticizer products, and an increase in the upward momentum of plasticizers.

Future expectations

Analysts from Business Society’s plasticizer product data believe that due to the impact of the Luxi chemical accident, the price of isooctanol has skyrocketed, and the cost of plasticizer products has increased, leading to a significant increase in plasticizer product prices. In the future, as isooctanol manufacturers resume supply, the cost of plasticizer raw materials is bound to fall, and the demand for plasticizers remains weak, with insufficient support for downstream increases. It is expected that plasticizer prices will remain high in the short term, and then may fall back from high levels.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the prices of polyester staple fibers first rose and then fell in April, showing a slight overall increase. As of April 29th, the average ex factory price of 1.4D * 38mm was 7660 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.77% compared to the beginning of the month. At the beginning of the month, prices were boosted by crude oil, but as cost support weakened and demand was insufficient, they fluctuated and declined. At present, the short fiber industry is experiencing significant losses, forcing factories and equipment to enter a state of maintenance. As of the end of this month, the start of production in the short fiber industry has decreased to less than 70%.

In the crude oil market, at the beginning of April, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) suddenly announced a significant production reduction, which is estimated to exceed 1 million barrels per day. Affected by this news, international crude oil futures prices have strengthened. But with concerns about economic recession and market expectations of further interest rate hikes that may suppress fuel demand growth, prices have fluctuated and fallen. As of April 28th, WTI’s June crude oil futures were trading at $76.78 per barrel; Brent crude oil futures for June were trading at $79.54 per barrel.

The PX new device has a load of 90% of Shenghong’s 4 million tons, a load of more than 80% of Guangzhou Petrochemical’s 2.6 million tons, and a load of less than 30% of Daxie Petrochemical’s 1.6 million tons. PX centralized maintenance has begun to materialize, and the operating rate of PX in Asia has rapidly decreased. However, at the end of the month, with the restart or load increase of multiple PX devices, the tight supply of PX in the early stage was slightly alleviated, and the domestic PX device load remained above 70%. The Asian centralized maintenance season is coming to an end, and the cost support for the PTA market from the PX maintenance season is also coming to an end.

Affected by this, the domestic PTA4 market in January showed an “M” trend, showing an overall decline. As of April 29, the spot market price in East China was 6180 yuan/ton, down 3.51% from the beginning of the month. At the end of April, the domestic PTA device load remained around 80%. In May, restart and maintenance coexisted. The total production capacity of Yadong Petrochemical was 750000 tons/year, and the device was repaired at the end of March. It is planned to restart on May 1st. The total production capacity of Xinjiang Zhongtai PTA is 1.2 million tons/year, and the device is planned to be shut down in May, with a planned maintenance period of 2 months. In terms of inventory, according to statistics, the current PTA social inventory is maintained at around 2.7 million tons. In April, there was an increase in PTA supply and a decrease in demand, resulting in a slight accumulation of inventory in the market.

Demand has continued to be weak. Since April, new orders for domestic and foreign terminal weaving have continued to decline, mainly for just in demand replenishment. Domestic demand orders have gradually come to an end, and foreign demand has still not improved. From January to March 2023, polyester yarn exports amounted to 108000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 15.7%. In March, polyester yarn exports amounted to 41000 shares, a year-on-year decrease of 5.5%. The pressure on pure polyester yarn enterprises has gradually increased, and production reduction has been put on the agenda. There have been sporadic cuts in production in yarn factories, and there has not yet been a large-scale reduction in production.

Analysts from Business Society believe that as processing costs continue to compress and traditional textile off-season approaches, it is expected that polyester staple fiber and downstream yarn enterprises will experience more widespread production cuts and shutdowns in May. The operating rate will further decrease, and weak demand will suppress polyester staple fiber prices.

Overview of ethylene glycol market

According to data from Business News Agency, on April 27th, the average price of domestic oil to ethylene glycol was 4153.33 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.12% compared to the market average price of 4158.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month.

Ethylene glycol inventory remains high

At present, inventory is still relatively high. In April, the inventory of ethylene glycol at the East China main port has been operating above 1 million tons. From the beginning of the month to the 24th, there has been a slight accumulation of inventory. Towards the end of the month (April 27th), the inventory of ethylene glycol at the East China main port has reached 1.0221 million tons, and the inventory has started to decrease slightly. The main reason is that the pace of port shipments has increased, including 534000 tons in Zhangjiagang, 189100 tons in Taicang, 101000 tons in Ningbo, 121000 tons in Jiangyin and Changzhou, and 77000 tons in Shanghai and Changshu. In terms of shipment: Zhangjiagang shipped an average of 6100 tons per day this week; Taicang’s two warehouses have a comprehensive daily average shipment of 6900 tons; The daily average shipment in Ningbo area is around 3000 tons.

List of International CIF Prices

On April 25th, the CIF price of ethylene glycol in China was 505 US dollars per ton, a decrease of 9 US dollars per ton compared to the previous month; The CIF Southeast Asia price is 523 US dollars per ton.

The supply is still loose, and the expected conversion to production needs to be actually implemented

The operating rate of domestic ethylene glycol units has slightly increased to 60% with the production of new units and the restart of coal chemical plants. In terms of imports, the import volume in March will slightly increase to around 520000 tons with the arrival of Iranian goods at the port. In addition, the port’s shipping speed is starting to decline, and the port is expected to accumulate inventory slightly.

Downstream demand is weak

Downstream, the scale of polyester maintenance has increased, and the polyester load continues to decline, mainly because the terminal is temporarily unable to withstand high priced raw materials, and the operating rate of the weaving machine has decreased. Although there have been many new polyester production units recently, which to some extent offset some of the reduced production load, the overall downstream demand is weak.

Weak upward momentum on the spot end

At present, the average spot price of ethylene glycol is within a relatively low range in history, but the supply pressure of ethylene glycol is still in the short term. In terms of demand, the start of terminal looms has slightly weakened, and some polyester factories have production reduction plans, suppressing the upward trend of ethylene glycol prices; The fundamentals of ethylene glycol are still weak.

Ethylene glycol has been in a negative profit price range for a long time. Currently, it mainly relies on the increase in equipment maintenance scale and the reduction in supply, coupled with the weakening of supply caused by medium to long-term production changes and the expected support of downstream demand that may improve; We still need to wait and see the specific performance, after all, the inventory data is not optimistic.

It is expected that in the short term, the probability of ethylene glycol trading sideways will increase, with an average price range of around 3950-4200 yuan/ton.

The price of ethylene oxide decreased in April

According to data from Business News Agency, on April 26, 2023, the average spot market price of ethylene oxide in China was 6500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 9.72% compared to the beginning of the month; Compared to the beginning of the year, the price was 6800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.41%.

Overview of ethylene oxide industry chain

The terminal demand is lower than expected, and the price center of the main downstream polycarboxylate water reducing agent monomer has shifted downward. The production enthusiasm of polycarboxylate water reducing agent monomer enterprises is not high, and the demand for ethylene oxide is weakened.

Weak cost support for ethylene price decline

On the raw material side, the price of ethylene has moved downwards. Currently, the average price in the domestic market is 6800 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 200 yuan/ton, weakening cost support.

Future Market Forecast

The terminal demand is lower than expected, and the production capacity utilization rate of the main downstream polycarboxylate water reducing agent monomer enterprises is not high; The demand for ethylene oxide is expected to deteriorate. Adding to the downward movement of raw material prices, cost support has weakened, and it is expected that in the short term, the price of ethylene oxide will continue the current trend, with weak fluctuations being the main trend.

On April 25th, domestic boric acid prices stabilized

According to the bulk list data of Business Society, the price of boric acid has recently slightly decreased, with an average price of 7540 yuan/ton.

Recently, the domestic boric acid market has been weak. Downstream demand is average, and the price of boric acid fluctuates slightly downwards.

The supply of imported goods has recently increased, and the current external quotation is concentrated at 7800-9000 yuan/ton (the actual transaction price of different brands, specifications, and products is mainly negotiated).

Business Society Boric Acid Analysts believe that recent market demand has been average, and the boric acid market is showing a fluctuating and weak consolidation trend. It is expected that the market will remain weak and stable in the future, and more attention needs to be paid to market news guidance.

According to data from Business News Agency, the domestic maleic anhydride market has been in a weak state this week. As of April 23, the average market price of n-butane oxidation maleic anhydride remained at 7850.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.51% compared to the price of 7890.00 yuan/ton on April 17, and an increase of 1.42% compared to the same period last month.

On April 23, the maleic anhydride commodity index was 73.95, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 55.57% from the cycle’s highest point of 166.43 points (2021-12-15), and an increase of 44.49% from the lowest point of 51.18 points on April 14, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2011 to the present)

At present, the domestic benzene based maleic anhydride market is gradually starting to operate. Recently, the downstream resin market has been weak, and the enthusiasm for replenishment of maleic anhydride is average. As of the 23rd, solid anhydride in Shandong region is about 7500 yuan/ton, in Jiangsu region it is about 7500 yuan/ton, in Shanxi region it is about 7500 yuan/ton, mainly for self use in Hebei region, and in South China it is about 7800 yuan/ton.

On the upstream side, the price of pure benzene stabilized first and then fell. On April 17th, the average price of pure benzene was 7501 yuan/ton, and on April 21st, the average price was 7510 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.87% compared to last week. The ex factory price of hydrogenated benzene in North China has increased by 0.68%, from 7350 yuan/ton last weekend to 7400 yuan/ton this weekend. This week’s regular butane market has been sorted out, and as of April 23, the price in Shandong is around 5500 yuan/ton.

Business Society’s maleic anhydride product analysts believe that this week, the upstream n-butane market of maleic anhydride has sorted out, while the downstream resin market is weak. They are cautious in covering positions, coupled with the downward trend of international crude oil, the market has a strong wait-and-see sentiment. However, as the May Day holiday approaches, some downstream restocking before the holiday is expected, and the maleic anhydride market may be dominated by consolidation.

1、 Price trend

According to the commodity market analysis system of the business community, the average price of 55% of the domestic powdered monoammonium was 3126 yuan/ton on April 17, and 3086 yuan/ton on April 23. The market price of monoammonium phosphate fell 1.28% this week.

According to the commodity market analysis system of the business community, the average price of 64% of the domestic diammonium phosphate market was 3943 yuan/ton on April 17, and the average price of 64% of the domestic diammonium phosphate market was 3943 yuan/ton on April 23. The price of diammonium phosphate market was stable this week.

2、 Market analysis

The price of monoammonium phosphate fell this week. The prices of raw phosphorus ore and sulfur have fallen, weakening cost support. Downstream demand is sluggish, with few new orders traded. As of April 23, the market price of 55 powdered ammonium in Hubei region is around 2850-3000 yuan/ton, while the market price of 55 powdered ammonium in Sichuan region is around 2900-3050 yuan/ton, with actual negotiations being the main focus.

The price of diammonium phosphate remained stable this week. The prices of raw materials continue to weaken, and cost support is weak. Downstream demand is light, with small purchases being the main focus, and market trading performance is average. As of April 17th, 64% of the diammonium market in Hubei region has quoted around 3850-3950 yuan/ton, while 64% of the diammonium market in Yungui region has quoted around 3700-4100 yuan/ton, with actual transaction negotiations.

In terms of raw sulfur, the price of sulfur has dropped this week. The sulfur manufacturer’s equipment is operating normally, the market supply is stable, the end industry consumption is sluggish, the main downstream market is weak and declining, the market’s new orders are insufficient, demand is poor, and refinery shipments are hindered. The operators have a pessimistic mentality, and some refinery quotations have been lowered to stimulate shipments, resulting in a weak short-term sulfur market trend.

In terms of raw phosphorus ore, the domestic phosphorus ore market remained stable and declined this week. In early April, due to the low start of downstream yellow phosphorus production, the weak operation of yellow phosphorus from bottom to top affected the atmosphere in the phosphate ore field, and the market situation of some areas of the domestic phosphate ore market adjusted downward. Entering this week, the domestic phosphate ore market stabilized and prices fell again.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Analysts from the Business Society believe that the recent poor price trend of ammonium phosphate raw materials has resulted in insufficient cost support. Terminal demand remains sluggish and trading volume is relatively low. The weak market situation of ammonium phosphate is difficult to improve, and it is expected that the price of ammonium phosphate will continue to decline in the short term.