This week (6.12-6.19), the market of chloroform declined slightly. According to the data of the business society, as of June 19, the price of chloroform bulk water in Shandong was 2075 yuan/ton, down 2.35% from 2125 yuan/ton last Monday. The price of raw material methanol rose slightly but remained at a low level, and the cost support of chloroform was weak; Some downstream enterprises purchased a small amount of goods, and the transaction of chloroform market was flat. Chloroform market fluctuated and fell back.

This week (6.12-6.19), there was a slight fluctuation in the start of the methane chloride plant.

This week (6.12-6.19), the price of raw methanol rose slightly but remained low, and the cost support of chloroform remained weak. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of June 19th, the spot price of methanol was 2065 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.48% compared to the 2015 yuan/ton last Monday.

Short term replenishment orders ended, coupled with a small amount of low demand for domestic refrigerant starting, the price of some downstream refrigerant R22 enterprises for shutdown and maintenance was temporarily stable, and chloroform fell slightly in the short term. In addition, the total production quota of R22 in 2023 was reduced by 19% to 181800 tons, which made it difficult to improve the demand for chloroform in the medium and long term.

According to the methane chloride data analysts of Business Society, although the overall domestic demand support for chloroform is weak at present, it is expected that the chloroform market will narrow in the later period.

This week’s lead market (6.9-6.16) fluctuated upwards, with the average price in the domestic market at 15055 yuan/ton over the weekend and 15265 yuan/ton over the weekend, up 1.39%.

The K-bar chart of commodity prices uses the concept of a price trend K-line to reflect weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell investments based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations. Since the market entered September, the expectations of downstream battery companies have increased during the peak season, driving the price of primary lead to rise. After the peak season ended, prices continued to weaken, and the market trend was somewhat volatile.

In terms of the futures market, the U.S. Dollar Index plunged this week, and Lun Lead went up. The price of lead was boosted and kept up. The Spot market mostly followed the fluctuation of Shanghai Lead, and the price was the main player this week. In terms of supply and demand, supply has been slightly tight this week, and primary lead manufacturers have recently started maintenance, resulting in an overall decline in operating rates. Due to losses during the off-season, recycled lead companies have actively limited production and reduced operating rates, leading to a tightening of lead ingot supply this week compared to the previous period, boosting market sentiment. In terms of demand, the downstream consumer end is still in the off-season, and battery companies have production reduction plans. The procurement of raw materials and power is insufficient, and most of them maintain just in demand procurement. In terms of waste batteries, most of the quotations in Henan, Shandong, and other places have followed the rise of lead prices, and discussions in the high market are limited, with only sporadic transactions. The downstream still lacks the support of actual demand, offsetting the good from the supply side. The Spot market as a whole shows a pattern of weak supply and demand. In the future, the Business Society predicts that the main trend will remain weak and volatile in the short term, with limited market volatility in the off-season. We will pay attention to the impact of macro level news on the market in the future.

London Metal Exchange (LME) lead inventory of 36800 tons will be temporarily stable on June 18, 2023 (unit: ton)

On June 18th, the base metal index stood at 1208 points, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 25.25% from the cycle’s highest point of 1616 points (2022-03-09), and an increase of 88.16% from the lowest point of 642 points on November 24, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1st, 2011 to the present).

According to the price monitoring of the Business Society, there were a total of 9 commodities in the non-ferrous sector that rose month on month on the list of commodity prices in the 24th week of 2023 (6.12-6.16), with nickel (4.71%), tin (4.05%), and cobalt (3.38%) ranking among the top 3 commodities. There are a total of 8 products that have decreased compared to the previous month, with the top 3 products falling being metal silicon (-2.99%), magnesium (-2.62%), and silver (-1.70%). This week’s average increase or decrease was 0.56%.

According to data monitored by the Business Society, as of June 13th, the average price quoted by domestic premium DMF enterprises was 4850 yuan/ton, and the DMF price showed a narrow and weak trend, falling by 5.6% in the week. Currently, the mainstream price is around 4800 yuan/ton.

This week, the overall DMF market is mainly in a weak position. Since June, the DMF market has shown a continuous downward trend, with prices dropping by 5.6% compared to the same period last week. Currently, the mainstream price range is 4800.00 yuan/ton, and the downstream procurement atmosphere is average. Shipping is slow, and manufacturers are giving up on orders.

Chemical Index: On June 12th, the chemical index reached 820 points, a decrease of 4 points from yesterday, a decrease of 41.43% from the highest point in the cycle of 1400 points (2021-10-23), and an increase of 37.12% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8th, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1st, 2011 to the present).

DMF analysts from Business Society believe that in the short term, the DMF market will operate steadily and weakly.

1、 Price data

According to the commodity analysis system of the business community, the price of Petroleum coke of the local refiner declined this week. On June 11, the average price of Shandong market was 1846.50 yuan/ton, down 1.60% from the price of 1876.50 yuan/ton on June 5.

On June 11, the Petroleum coke commodity index was 143.62, unchanged from yesterday, down 64.86% from the cycle’s highest point of 408.70 (2022-05-11), and up 114.71% from the lowest point of 66.89 on March 28, 2016. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 30th, 2012 to the present)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

This week, the price of Petroleum coke produced by local refineries continued to decline. Local refineries actively discharged their stocks. The downstream was in a strong wait-and-see mood, and the trading was average. At present, the port Petroleum coke inventory is still high, and the terminal just needs replenishment, so the overall trade is average.

The international crude oil market has been volatile this week. Affected by the favorable supply of Saudi Arabia’s plan to deepen production cuts, the bullish sentiment in the market has diluted the bearish sentiment of rising US refined oil inventories and weak Chinese data. The international crude oil prices are in a consolidation trend.

The price of calcined coke remained basically stable this week. This week, metal silicon declined slightly. As of June 11, the average price of 441 # metal silicon in the Spot market was 14090 yuan/ton. The downstream electrolytic aluminum market is on the rise, with an average price of 18666.67 yuan/ton as of June 11th. Downstream enterprises have a strong wait-and-see attitude and low enthusiasm for receiving goods, with on-demand procurement being the main focus.

Petroleum coke analysts from the business agency believe that: at present, domestic Petroleum coke supply is sufficient, local refining Petroleum coke delivery is average, refineries actively arrange stocks, downstream enterprises have a strong wait-and-see mood, receiving enthusiasm is not high, and procurement is mainly on demand. It is expected that the local refining of Petroleum coke in the near future will be dominated by weak points.

Price trend

According to the commodity market analysis system of the business community, the price trend of Cryolite in Henan is stable. On June 9, the average market price in Henan was 7850 yuan/ton, unchanged from the average price of 7850 yuan/ton on June 3, up 0.32% month on month.

quotations analysis

This week, the Cryolite market is waiting to be sorted out, and the manufacturer’s quotation is stable and small. The upstream operating rate is low, the raw material support continues to be favorable, Cryolite production is under pressure, the on-site devices operate at low load, the enterprise inventory is maintained rationally, the downstream is more resistant to high prices, the market purchase follows up as required, Cryolite enterprises are wait-and-see, maintain an active shipping, the market negotiation atmosphere is improved compared with last week, some enterprises ship smoothly, the inventory is lower, and Cryolite prices are slightly increased. As of June 9, the ex factory quotation of Cryolite in Shandong was 7000-8600 yuan/ton, with an increase of 100 yuan/ton; The ex factory quotation of Cryolite in Henan is 7200-8900 yuan/ton, and the price is increased by 100 yuan/ton within the range.

Upstream fluorite prices have slightly decreased, with an average market price of 3136.25 yuan/ton as of June 9, a decrease of 0.24% compared to the price of 3143.75 yuan/ton on June 3. The operating rate of fluorite enterprises has slightly increased, and spot supply has increased. However, mining enterprises are facing increasingly strict safety and environmental requirements, and the shortage of raw material supply continues to exist, providing support to the fluorite market. The price decline is not significant, and the market situation is wait-and-see.

The downstream aluminum market first fell and then rose. On June 9th, the aluminum price was around 18666.67 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.45% compared to the price of 18583.33 yuan/ton on June 3rd. Terminal consumption is weak, downstream demand support is insufficient, market trading and negotiation are the main focus, and some regions have significantly reduced inventory. Adjustments and increases are made based on their own shipment situation, resulting in fluctuating aluminum prices.

Future Market Forecast

Cryolite enterprises are short of raw materials in stock. Upstream support continues to be good. The manufacturers maintain a positive shipping attitude, and the market mentality is good. Downstream market entry follows up as required. Market transaction and investment negotiations are the main topic. Supply and demand in the market are relatively stable. It is expected that Cryolite market will wait and see later.

According to the commodity market analysis system of the business community, the price of Paraformaldehyde in Shandong Province has recently dropped in shock. At the beginning of the week, the average production price of Paraformaldehyde in Shandong Province was 4850.00 yuan/ton, and at the weekend, the average production price of Paraformaldehyde in Shandong Province was 4775.00 yuan/ton, down 1.55%, 5.68% month on month, and 11.30% year on year.

Upstream methanol situation: The domestic methanol market is weak and the support for methanol production costs is weakened. The Baofeng unit is recovering, the supply in mainland China is increasing, and the local formaldehyde load is decreasing, resulting in a decrease in methanol demand. As prices decline, traders and downstream sentiment weaken accordingly. The ex factory price of methanol in the southern region of Shandong is referenced to be around 2130 yuan/ton in cash exchange, while the delivery price in Linyi is referenced to be around 2150-2170 yuan/ton in cash exchange. The local methanol factory in central Shandong quoted a price of 2150-2190 yuan/ton for self delivery. The negotiated price range for methanol in the Dongying area of Shandong Province is 2080-2090 yuan/ton.

Recently, the methanol market is weak and low, and the cost support is poor. It is difficult for downstream demand to change significantly in a short time. The Paraformaldehyde analysts of the business agency predict that the price may fall slightly.

Product name: Sulfur

Latest price: On June 6th, the average sulfur price in East China was 833.33 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.63% compared to the previous working day price of 820.00 yuan/ton.

Analysis: The domestic sulfur market is on the rise, with prices generally rising. The operation of refinery units in Shandong region is average, and the market supply remains rational. The consumption in the end industry is off-season, and downstream enthusiasm is weak. Entering the market to obtain goods is mainly based on demand, while sulfur manufacturers are actively shipping. Some enterprises have good shipments, and inventory has decreased, leading to an upward trend in sulfur prices.

Future forecast: Currently, there is no inventory pressure in sulfur refining plants, downstream demand is limited, and there is a lack of effective support for positive market conditions on the market. Under the supply and demand game, it is expected that the sulfur market will be sorted out, and prices may fluctuate slightly. Please pay attention to the follow-up situation downstream.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the average market price of chlorinated paraffin 52 in China on May 29th was 5433 yuan/ton. On June 5th, the average market price of chlorinated paraffin 52 in China was 5266 yuan/ton. This week, the price of chlorinated paraffin 52 decreased by 3.07%.

2、 Market analysis

Chlorinated paraffin market prices fell this week. This week, the price of raw material liquid chlorine fluctuated, while the price of raw material liquid wax fell, weakening cost support. Downstream demand is weak, with primary demand for procurement and flat market trading. As of June 5th, the factory price of chlorinated paraffin 52 in Anhui region is about 5800 yuan/ton, the factory price of chlorinated paraffin 52 in Northeast region is about 5000 yuan/ton, and the factory price of chlorinated paraffin 52 in Shandong region is about 4500-5000 yuan/ton.

In terms of raw material liquid wax, the price of liquid wax has continued to decline this month, and market demand is weak. Liquid wax fluctuates with the crude oil market. In terms of raw material liquid chlorine, the price of liquid chlorine has fluctuated and fluctuated this month. At present, the market situation is unstable, and manufacturers’ shipments are average.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Chlorinated paraffin analysts from Business Society believe that the recent trend in raw material prices is weak, with limited cost support. The performance of terminal demand is average, and the market trading atmosphere is light. It is expected that the chlorinated paraffin market price is weak in the short term.

The sluggish situation of the domestic acetone market is difficult to change, and the focus of negotiations continues to decline. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the negotiated price of acetone in the East China region dropped from 5350 yuan at the beginning of the week to 4950 yuan/ton on June 2, and the average price in the national market dropped from 5895 yuan/ton to 5195 yuan/ton, a decrease of 11.87%

The terminal demand is severely insufficient, and actual orders in the market are rare. There is a serious lack of follow-up on the demand side, with very few customers actively entering the market for procurement. Holders are under pressure and have a high intention to sell out. Major mainstream market quotations are constantly declining, and factories have had to lower their listing prices multiple times in an inverted situation. Downstream factories are mainly wait-and-see, which hinders the procurement process.

The acetone offers in major mainstream markets across the country on June 2nd are as follows:

Region/ Quotation/ Weekly decline

East China region/ 4950./-400

Shandong region/ 5150./-600

Yanshan region/ 5250./-700

South China region/ 5450/- eight hundred

The factory has to lower its listing price due to being upside down. On the 2nd, Sinopec’s listing price in East China was 5200 yuan/ton, while Sinopec’s listing price in North China was 5200 yuan/ton. The listing price of Lihua Yiwei Yuan acetone dropped to 5100 yuan/ton. In the face of market downturn, the acetone factory lowered its listing price. And currently, the losses of phenolic ketone factories are increasing.

The operating rate of domestic phenolic ketone enterprises has been adjusted. Jiangsu Hengrui’s 650000 ton/year phenolic ketone plant was shut down for maintenance on May 30th, and Mitsui’s 400000 ton/year and Lihuayi’s first unit resumed restart on the 29th. Zhejiang Petrochemical’s Phase II 650000 ton/year phenolic ketone plant restarted in June.

As the market continues to decline, terminal factories at the beginning of the month are mainly focused on digesting contracts, with insufficient proactive procurement and difficulty releasing short-term actual orders. It is expected that the market will still struggle to improve next week, and there are also expectations of further bottoming out.

Gold prices have fallen back to the beginning of the month

On May 31st, gold prices fell back to the beginning of the month. According to the commodity market analysis system of the business community, the spot market price of gold will be 446.76 yuan/g on May 31, 2023, up 0.91% from the beginning of the month (May 1).

Silver decreased by 4.22% compared to the beginning of the month

According to the commodity market analysis system of the business community, the average price of silver in the market will be 5347.67 yuan/kg on May 31, 2023, down 4.23% from the beginning of the month (May 1), and 8.42% from the high spot market price in the month (May 5). The low point in the past year occurred on July 18, 2022, and the current price has increased by 30.49% compared to the low point.

Summary of Price Trends of Precious Metals and Crude Oil

In the early stage, the correlation between precious metals and crude oil trends is strong. After the second half of 2022, precious metal prices have bottomed out and stabilized, and the magnitude of macro factors affecting them has begun to show differentiation. The trend of precious metals and crude oil began to converge in late March, but after mid April, the trend began to diverge again. Mainly due to the increased impact of risk aversion on the rise of precious metal prices.

Comparison of precious metal gold and silver price trends in the past year

In 2022, the rise and fall trends of precious metal gold and silver have converged, but the decline in silver was deeper from April to August, and the recent recovery has been more significant. In December, silver continued its strong trend last month, and gold began to consolidate at high levels. In 2023, precious metal gold and silver have consolidated at high levels, with a slight decline in February. Since March, precious metal prices have started to rise. Silver prices began to decline in May, while gold remained relatively strong.

Policy logic

The latest news shows that a principled agreement on the debt ceiling has been basically reached, and currently only legislative procedures have been completed before the deadline. The acceleration of US consumer spending has added obstacles to the path of inflation falling, and the expectation of another interest rate hike in June in the money market has significantly increased. Previously, the Federal Reserve had already laid the groundwork for a pause in interest rate hikes in June, and recent data significantly increased the difficulty of decision-making at the June FOMC meeting.

The annualized corrected value of the core PCE price index in the first quarter of the United States increased by 5% month on month, with an expected increase of 4.9% and an initial increase of 4.9% month on month; A year-on-year increase of 4.7%, with an initial value increase of 4.7%. The core price index slightly exceeded expectations, reflecting the strong inflationary stickiness of the US dollar, and the rebound trend of the US dollar index, suppressing precious metal prices in the short term.

Fund logic

On May 30th, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange was 15332 kilograms, a decrease of 7.12% compared to the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 445420 kilograms, a decrease of 29.51% compared to the previous trading day. The gold inventory of the previous exchange was 2739 kilograms, unchanged from the previous trading day. Silver inventory decreased by 8884 kilograms to 1513534 kilograms compared to the previous trading day.

The newly announced gold SPDR ETF position was 939.56 tons, a decrease of 1.73 tons from the previous trading day. Silver SLV ETF position was 14554.35 tons, a decrease of 11.42 tons from the previous trading day

Narrowing Downward Space for Precious Metals in the Future Market

At the beginning of the month, the price of precious metals has reached a new decade high. In the early stage, we expected that under the high inflation and high interest rate hikes, the pace of overseas economic recession may lead to a relatively full sense of risk aversion, which is basically reflected in the price. Some central banks around the world increased their holdings of gold reserve, which also formed some support for gold prices.

However, the economic vitality demonstrated by domestic consumption during the May holiday, coupled with China’s first quarter economic data growth of 4.5%, partially alleviated concerns about global economic recession. Coupled with the Federal Reserve’s high interest rates and the expectation of the Federal Reserve stopping interest rate hikes in June, this has to some extent suppressed the prices of non bearing asset precious metals.

It is expected that the downward space for precious metal prices will narrow in the short term, with short-term fluctuations and consolidation being the main focus, while the medium to long term remains bullish.