Trade name: Potassium chloride (imported)

Latest price (July 4th): 2725 yuan/ton

The price of imported Potassium chloride in the domestic market fell slightly on July 4, down 50 yuan/ton, or 1.80%, from July 3. At present, the port’s 62% self raised price of white potassium is around 2400-2500 yuan/ton; The self raised price of 60% Dahong granules at the port is around 2700-2800 yuan/ton. Border trade accounts for 62% of Russian white potassium at around 2200-2300 yuan/ton. The arrival price of Potassium chloride in domestic salt lakes is about 2400-2500 yuan/ton. The international potassium fertilizer market has slightly declined. The downstream potassium carbonate market declined slightly, while the Potassium nitrate market rose slightly. The downstream purchasing enthusiasm was general.

In the future, the price of Potassium chloride in China may fall slightly, mainly due to consolidation. The import market price of Potassium chloride is about 2700 yuan/ton.

The price of plasticizers fluctuated and stabilized in the first half of the year

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the plasticizer market fluctuated and adjusted extensively in the first half of the year, and the overall plasticizer price stabilized. As of June 30th, the DOP price was 9666.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.85% compared to January 1st, when the DOP price was 9750 yuan/ton; On June 30th, the price of DOTP was 9750 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.51% compared to January 1st, when DOTP was 9800 yuan/ton; On June 30th, the price of DBP was 8787.50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8.14% compared to January 1st, when DBP was 9566.67 yuan/ton. In the first half of the year, the overall demand for plasticizers was weak, with sufficient supply of raw materials such as isooctanol and n-butanol. The cost of plasticizers was weakened and lowered, and the prices of plasticizers were fluctuating and stabilizing. In the relatively stable plasticizer market in the first half of the year, there were two brief peak periods. After the Spring Festival and May Day, plasticizer prices briefly soared, but demand was weak, and the support for plasticizer increases could not be sustained. After a brief increase, plasticizer prices quickly fell back and quickly broke through pre holiday prices.

Weak consolidation of isooctanol prices in the first half of the year

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of June 30th, the price of isooctanol was 9350 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.94% from January 1st at 9733.33 yuan/ton. In the first half of the year, the price of isooctanol fluctuated and adjusted widely, resulting in a decrease in overall isooctanol prices, a decrease in the cost of plasticizer products, and insufficient support for the increase in plasticizers.

In the first half of the year, the market for raw material phthalic anhydride fluctuated and fell

According to the market analysis system for phthalic anhydride products of the Business Society, as of June 30th, the quoted price for phthalic anhydride was 7700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.50% compared to the price of 8062.50 yuan/ton on January 1st. In the first quarter, the price of phthalic anhydride was affected by the increase in raw material prices, causing a fluctuation and increase in the price of phthalic anhydride. In the second quarter, the raw material of phthalic anhydride decreased, coupled with the price drop of naphthalene phthalic anhydride, the price of ortho phthalic anhydride significantly decreased. Overall, in the first half of the year, the price of phthalic anhydride fluctuated and decreased, resulting in a decrease in the cost of plasticizer raw materials and an increase in the downward pressure on plasticizers.

The price of n-butanol fluctuated significantly in the first half of the year

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of June 30th, the price of n-butanol was 7316.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10.41% compared to January 1st, when the price of n-butanol was 8166.67 yuan/ton. In the first half of the year, the price of n-butanol plummeted significantly, with sufficient supply and weak demand for n-butanol. As the main downstream of n-butanol, the cost of plasticizer DBP decreased. In the first half of the year, DBP prices fluctuated and fell, increasing the downward pressure on plasticizers.

Future expectations

Analysts from Business Society’s plasticizer product data believe that the demand for plasticizers remained weak in the first half of the year, and there was insufficient support for the rise of plasticizers; On the raw material side, the prices of isooctanol have weakened and consolidated, the prices of phthalic anhydride have fluctuated and fallen, the prices of n-butanol have significantly decreased, the cost of plasticizers has decreased, the prices of plasticizer DBP have plummeted, and the downward pressure on plasticizer products has increased. In the future, demand remains weak, with limited support for rising prices of raw materials such as isooctanol, phthalic anhydride, and n-butanol. The cost of plasticizers has decreased, and the operating rate of plasticizer enterprises is around 60%. The supply of plasticizers is sufficient, and demand is weak, with insufficient cost support. It is expected that plasticizer prices will fluctuate and rise in the future.

List of ethylene glycol prices

According to data from Business News Agency, on June 30th, the average price of domestic oil to ethylene glycol was 3963.33 yuan/ton, with a monthly decrease of 3.41%. The prices in various regions are as follows:

The price range for spot goods executed by mainstream manufacturers in East China is between 3800-4075 yuan/ton; The spot price of ethylene glycol in the South China market is 3900 yuan/ton, while the price range for mainstream manufacturers in Central China is 3850 yuan/ton; The spot price for mainstream manufacturers in North China is 4150 yuan/ton.

On June 28th, the CIF price of ethylene glycol in China was $448/ton, a decrease of $2/ton; The CIF Southeast Asia price is 473 US dollars per ton.

At present, the price of coal based ethylene glycol is relatively low, with factory prices ranging from 3450 to 3500 yuan/ton.

June Ethylene Glycol Fundamentals

From the perspective of the supply side, there are plans to restart domestic maintenance devices in the near future, and there is an expectation of a rebound in supply in the future. A 750000 ton/year ethylene glycol plant in Zhejiang recently restarted, which had previously shut down in early May. The daily load of the 700000 ton unit of Fujian Gulei Petrochemical has been reduced from 85% to around 80%, which has little impact on the overall supply.

In terms of demand: The overall production and sales of polyester fibers in Jiangsu and Zhejiang have declined, and the production of weaving machines in Jiangsu and Zhejiang has declined slightly. Currently, the polyester load has not changed significantly, and further observation is needed.

In terms of imports, some maintenance devices in the Asian region are planned to restart in the early stage, and it is expected that the import volume of ethylene glycol may rebound in the future.

July ethylene glycol variables

At the end of June, coal and ethylene prices bottomed out and rebounded. The news of Iran’s installation drove up methanol prices, supporting ethylene glycol prices to some extent on the cost side. The decline in crude oil inventory in July, coupled with high temperatures, has sparked market concerns about electricity consumption. The rise in overseas natural gas has boosted energy prices, and crude oil has continued to rebound. Coupled with domestic macroeconomic policy expectations, there are some cost side positive expectations to some extent.

From the perspective of supply and demand fundamentals, there is an expectation of an increase in the supply side of ethylene glycol in July. Downstream demand is affected by the weakness of the terminal, and it remains to be seen whether the current high start-up rate can be maintained. Overall, the expectation of a weakening of ethylene glycol supply and demand month on month is expected.

The dynamic game between cost and supply sides may intensify in July, and it is expected that ethylene glycol will continue to experience weak fluctuations in July.

Zinc prices fluctuated and rose in June

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of June 29th, the zinc price was 20250 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.95% compared to June 1st, which was 19480 yuan/ton. Macro positive news has increased, and the zinc market is positive, with zinc prices fluctuating and rising in June.

The Federal Reserve suspended interest rate hikes in June, macroeconomic benefits

A number of economic data in the United States reflect that the U.S. economy is more resilient than Europe. The Federal Reserve suspended interest rate hikes in June, and the recovery of macroeconomic sentiment pulled up U.S. stocks. In June, the U.S. Dollar Index fell continuously, hitting a new low since mid May; The trend of non-ferrous metal production has increased, the international macroeconomic environment has warmed up, and the zinc market is positive.

However, the overall inflation in the United States is still at a high level. Federal Reserve Powell released the signal of continuous interest rate increase. In late June, the U.S. Dollar Index rose in a volatile manner. The support for the international economy’s macro positive weakened, and the zinc market’s positive weakened.

Expected decrease in zinc market supply

From the trend chart of zinc concentrate processing fees, it can be seen that in June, the zinc concentrate processing fees stabilized, and zinc smelting enterprises showed average enthusiasm for starting operations. The supply of zinc in the market was temporarily stable, and the support for the increase in zinc prices was insufficient.

Sweden’s Boliden has suspended production of the largest zinc mine in Europe, and the Ronnskar smelter has shut down due to a fire, leading to a decrease in supply expectations for the European zinc market and increased support for the rise of the zinc market.

Future Market Forecast

According to data analysts from Business Society, the international economic environment rebounded in June, with non-ferrous metals bullish and bullish, while zinc prices followed suit. China has increased its support for real estate, infrastructure investment is improving, and the central bank’s MLF has cut interest rates. This has led to an increase in positive news for the domestic economy, stimulating a rebound in market sentiment and a rebound in the zinc market. Zinc smelters in Europe have ceased production, and the supply of zinc in the market is expected to decrease. Multiple positive factors stimulate the fluctuating rise of zinc prices. In the future, the expectation of macroeconomic recovery weakens, the supply of zinc is relatively sufficient, and the support for the rise of zinc market is insufficient. It is expected that zinc prices will fluctuate and consolidate in the future.

According to the commodity market analysis system of the business community, the decline of the domestic PTA market slowed down in June, mainly due to shock adjustment. As of June 28, the average price of Spot market in East China was 5631 yuan/ton, down 0.51% from the beginning of the month, down 18.73% year on year.

There is no obvious driving force on the supply and demand side of crude oil, and the oil price range fluctuates. As of June 27th, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $67.70 per barrel, while the settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was $72.51 per barrel. However, the unplanned production reduction and operation of PX large factories in June caused concerns about the tight supply of PX, providing positive support for the cost side of PTA. At present, overseas PX supply has resumed, new domestic devices have been successfully discharged, and PX supply is becoming more relaxed.

The PTA market is facing destocking in June, but there have been many restarts of domestic PTA devices since late July. Currently, the operating load of PTA devices has increased to over 80%, and it is expected to enter the accumulation phase after July.

The off-season of downstream terminals has dragged down the demand market, with some weaving factories shutting down for holidays or reducing operating rates. The comprehensive operating rate in Jiangsu and Zhejiang is around 60%, and there is currently no sign of improvement in the domestic and foreign markets. The performance of the foreign trade market is poor. According to customs data, China’s cumulative exports of textile and clothing products from January to May amounted to 118.2 billion US dollars, a year-on-year decrease of 5.3%, including a 9.4% year-on-year decrease in textiles and a 1.0% year-on-year decrease in clothing. In May, textiles decreased by 14.1% year-on-year, while clothing decreased by 12.4%.

Analysts from Business Society believe that there is still support for the cost side stage, but there is an expected increase in PTA inventory and supply, and the off-season characteristics of terminal textiles from July to August will become more obvious. Negative feedback on demand is heating up, and it is expected that PTA prices may operate weakly in July.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the average factory price of ammonium sulfate in China was 753 yuan/ton on June 1st, and 663 yuan/ton on June 27th. The price of ammonium sulfate fell by 11.95% this month.

2、 Market analysis

The ammonium sulfate market continued to weaken this month, with prices fluctuating and falling. This month, the low level of coking grade ammonium sulfate was sorted and the price was adjusted narrowly. The quotation for domestic ammonium sulfate has been lowered. The international market for ammonium sulfate remains weak, with fewer orders. The downstream composite fertilizer market is generally weak, with on-demand procurement being the main focus. This month, urea prices weakened, negatively affecting the ammonium sulfate market. As of June 27th, the mainstream factory quotation for coking grade ammonium sulfate in Henan region is around 670 yuan/ton. The mainstream factory quotation for domestic ammonium sulfate in Shandong is around 700 yuan/ton.

According to the weekly fluctuations from March 27, 2023 to June 19, 2023, it can be seen that the rise and fall of domestic ammonium sulfate cycle are mixed. There was a significant decline in June, with the largest decline of -4.47% in the week ending June 5th.

This month, the market trend of downstream compound fertilizer was weak, and the price was low. The trend of composite fertilizer raw materials is not good, and cost support is weak. Downstream demand is sluggish, the market is sluggish, and short-term market conditions are difficult to improve.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Analysts from the Business Society believe that the demand for ammonium sulfate in domestic and foreign markets has been poor recently, and the market has a strong wait-and-see atmosphere. The downstream market is sluggish, with small purchases of raw materials being the main focus, and dealers are cautious in their operations. It is expected that the price of ammonium sulfate will continue to decline in the short term.

According to the market analysis system of the Business Society, in June, during a long short game, the hydrogen peroxide market continued to decline in the early stage, with a drop of over 6%. At the end of the month, it experienced a significant rebound, with a daily increase of over 6.8%. Throughout June, hydrogen peroxide rose by 1.29%. At the beginning of the month, the average market price of hydrogen peroxide was 773 yuan/ton. On June 26th, the average market price of hydrogen peroxide was 783 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.29%.

Long Short Game: The Hydrogen Peroxide Market in June experienced ups and downs

At the beginning of the month, due to weak terminal demand and loose supply, hydrogen peroxide manufacturers had weak confidence in price support, and multiple bearish pressures led to a continued weak and downward trend in the hydrogen peroxide market. The market has been declining continuously for more than half a month, and the mainstream quotation has dropped to around 720 yuan/ton, a decrease of nearly 7%.

Starting from the middle of the month, the demand in the terminal printing and papermaking industry has improved, and the hydrogen peroxide market has gradually rebounded. At the end of the month, there has been a significant rebound, with an increase of over 8%, and the overall increase of hydrogen peroxide has exceeded 1%.

Li Bing, a chemical analyst at Business Society, believes that some hydrogen peroxide manufacturers will restart their hydrogen peroxide devices in the future, with loose supply. It is expected that the hydrogen peroxide market may experience a decline in July.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the average market price of 55% powdered ammonium phosphate in China on June 19th was 2583 yuan/ton. On June 25th, the average market price of 55% powdered ammonium phosphate in China was 2550 yuan/ton. This week, the market price of monoammonium phosphate decreased by 1.29%.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the average market price of 64% diammonium phosphate in China on June 19th was 3810 yuan/ton. On June 25th, the average market price of 64% diammonium phosphate in China was 3812 yuan/ton. This week, the market price of diammonium phosphate increased by 0.18%.

2、 Market analysis

On Monday this week, the price of ammonium decreased and ammonium chloride adjusted narrowly. This week, the market for raw material phosphate ore and sulfur weakened, and prices continued to decline, weakening cost support. Currently in the off-season of demand, the demand side consolidation performance is weak, and the market trading atmosphere is poor. Downstream procurement is on demand. As of June 25th, the market price of 55 powdered ammonium in Hubei region is around 2400-2500 yuan/ton, while the market price of 55 powdered ammonium in Henan region is around 2500-2600 yuan/ton, with actual negotiations being the main focus. The quotation for 64% diammonium in Shandong is around 3500-3800 yuan/ton, while the quotation for 57% diammonium in Shandong is around 2650-3000 yuan/ton. The actual transaction is negotiated.

In terms of raw sulfur, domestic sulfur prices have fallen this week. The sulfur manufacturer’s equipment is operating normally, with sufficient market supply and average enthusiasm for downstream market entry. The market trading atmosphere is light, and the refinery’s shipment is not smooth. The operator’s mentality is not good, and the quotation is lowered to stimulate shipment. The focus of market transactions has shifted downward, and the short-term sulfur market is weak.

In terms of raw phosphorus ore, the domestic phosphorus ore market as a whole showed a weak decline this week. Prior to the holiday, the downstream stage stocking of phosphate ore was generally carried out, and the weak demand side continued to loosen the support for the phosphate ore market. Phosphate ore shipments gradually slowed down, and some mining companies implemented early shipment plans. The supply and demand sides of phosphate ore showed a stalemate, and some mining companies started to sell at discounted prices, lowering the prices of mid to high grade phosphate ore shipments. As of June 25th, the domestic market price of 30% grade phosphate ore is around 950-1080 yuan/ton.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Analysts from the Business Society believe that the market for ammonium phosphate has recently stabilized slightly and overall demand is light. Downstream restocking is the main demand, and the current market quotation is chaotic. It is expected that the market price of ammonium phosphate will be weak in the short term, and the main focus will be on consolidation and operation.

Recently, the domestic PTA Spot market has shown a volatile upward trend. As of June 22, the average price of Spot market in East China was 5695 yuan/ton, up 1.77% from June 12.

The burden reduction of large raw material PX devices has led to a decrease in operating load, resulting in a tightening of PX supply. In the short term, prices may strengthen, providing positive support for PTA.

The profit performance of downstream polyester products is fair, the overall inventory of the market is reasonably controllable, and the factory production enthusiasm is high. At present, the polyester industry starts at more than 90%. And after the new device is put into operation, the load gradually increases, and it is expected that the overall market supply will slightly increase.

However, there have been many restarts of PTA devices in China recently, and the current operating load of PTA devices has increased to around 80%. At the same time, the off-season of terminals has dragged down the demand market, with some weaving factories shutting down for holidays or reducing operating rates. The comprehensive operating rate in Jiangsu and Zhejiang is around 60%, and there is currently no sign of improvement in the domestic and foreign markets.

Analysts from Business Society believe that short-term crude oil prices fluctuate widely, and a tightening of PX supply may result in strong cost support for PTA. Downstream polyester factories currently do not have the power to actively reduce load, and will still maintain a relatively vigorous operating state. But in the situation where it is difficult to open terminal orders, there is still pressure on the demand side. Overall, short-term PTA is expected to be mainly adjusted with cost fluctuations.

According to the commodity market analysis system of the business community, the TDI price in East China has continued to rise since June. As of June 20, the average market price in East China was 17800 yuan/ton, 1800 yuan/ton higher than the price of 16000 yuan/ton on June 1, up 11.25% in the month.

The domestic TDI market operated strongly. At the beginning of the month, the market performance was quiet, and the price of the floor traders was mainly stable. Then, it was heard that a large factory in Shanghai cooperated with the park to reduce the load in early June. The attitude of the industry was bullish, and the TDI offer moved up. Later, BASF equipment parking in Shanghai, Covestro weekly executive price hike and other supplier information were released. The intention of the supplier to support the market was gradually obvious. The trade market followed the guidance of the big factory news, and the TDI offer continued to rise. The market supply was tight, There is strong bullish sentiment on the market, with TDI prices showing a significant upward trend.

The upstream toluene market is operating weakly, with the domestic average price of toluene at around 7110 yuan/ton as of June 20th, an overall decrease of 0.56% compared to the price of 7150 yuan/ton on June 1st. The international crude oil price is relatively strong, and the profit of toluene is declining. Affected by market pessimism, downstream demand is weak, and the market mainly focuses on purchasing hard demand. The toluene industry has a cautious attitude and adjusts prices based on inventory consumption, resulting in a weak and volatile toluene market.

After market analysis, TDI data analysts from the business agency believe that on the supply side, some factories have low load, and the market’s spot performance is tight. However, the market mentality has a significant impact, and the supply of goods is tight. Holders’ quotations are bound to rise. Downstream, due to the traditional off-season of the terminal market, demand follow-up is limited, and there is resistance to high priced TDI, which limits the increase in TDI. It is expected that the overall operation of the future market will be strong, with prices may fluctuate in a narrow range, Follow up on specific issues.