According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic spandex market has temporarily stabilized this week (July 17-22), with an average price of 33500 yuan/ton in the 40D market as of July 22, which is unchanged from the beginning of the week. The current raw material prices are still at a high level, and the spandex industry is experiencing losses. The operating rate remains low. As of July 20, 2023, the overall industry operating rate of the domestic spandex industry is around 72%.

The focus of the raw material pure MDI market is relatively strong, and there are few spot goods in the market. Additionally, factories have plans to continue reducing production, which limits their ability to add new orders, and their cost support continues to strengthen. The overall operating rate of the PTMEG industry is around 72%. The load of two 46000 ton/year PTMEG units of Sinopec Great Wall Energy and Chemical in Ningxia is around 90%, and the load of two 30000 ton/year PTMEG units of Henan Energy and Chemical is around 60%. The mainstream factory’s 1800 molecular weight quotation is around 19500, and some factories do not provide external quotations.

Recently, terminal inventory has gradually accumulated, and with the high temperature in summer and off-season factors, the workload of most downstream weaving factories is relatively low. Currently, there is no substantial improvement in both domestic and export sales of the terminal, and there may be further room for decline in construction.

Analysts from Business Society believe that the current cost side support is acceptable, but the actual demand side is bearish, with poor market trading enthusiasm and average enthusiasm for raw material stocking. Under low demand and rising cost pressures, it is expected that the spandex market price will remain mainly on a wait-and-see basis in the short term.

Zinc price range fluctuated and consolidated in mid July

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of July 19th, the zinc price was 20292 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.27% compared to the fluctuating zinc price of 20346 yuan/ton on July 9th. There is no upward support for the fundamentals of the zinc market, and the zinc price range fluctuated and consolidated in mid July.

Long Short Game in Zinc Market

The US CPI for June, announced in July, only increased by 3% year-on-year, lower than the market estimate of 3.1%. The unexpected decline in CPI data has led to a decline in the Federal Reserve’s expectation of aggressive interest rate hikes. As of July 13, the U.S. Dollar Index had fallen for six consecutive trading days. The U.S. Dollar Index fell, and the non-ferrous metal market was strong.

Before the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hike in July came to fruition, macroeconomic sentiment in the market was fluctuating. Traders believed that July would see a 25 basis point interest rate hike as scheduled, while the US dollar raised interest rates, weakening the non-ferrous metal market. On July 18th, LME zinc inventory increased by over 10000 tons, and LME zinc inventory increased to 80375 tons, breaking a new high since the end of June. The spot circulation is relatively loose, coupled with the continued impact of imported sources of goods. In July and August, some smelters on the supply side will enter the maintenance period, which may bring about significant supply reductions in August. Zinc smelting processing costs will rise, and the decrease in zinc smelting production will be limited. At the same time, imported zinc will also provide a certain supplement to the supply side, and the zinc market supply side may maintain a relatively loose supply, resulting in a bearish zinc market situation.

Future Market Forecast

According to data analysts from Business Society, macroeconomic sentiment is fluctuating, and strong support for non-ferrous metals is insufficient. LME zinc inventory has increased significantly, and domestic zinc supply is limited. The zinc market has sufficient supply. In the future, strong supply and weak demand will be the basic trend for a considerable period of time, and it is expected that zinc prices will consolidate weakly in the future.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of the business community, this week’s (7.07-7.14) “V” trend of 1 # tin ingot in East China, the average market price was 234210 yuan/ton on July 7, and 233310 yuan/ton on July 14, a weekly drop of 0.38%.

The K-bar chart of commodity prices uses the concept of a price trend K-line to reflect weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell investments based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations. From the monthly K-bar chart, it can be seen that after November 2022, tin prices have risen continuously for three months due to macroeconomic factors. Since February 2023, the price has dropped by 11.35% per month, and the trend of tin prices has fluctuated narrowly in the past three months. From the weekly K-bar chart, it can be seen that the tin ingot market has been rising for eight consecutive weeks.

In terms of the futures market, Shanghai tin prices fell first and then rose this week. As the Wa mining ban approaches August and some domestic enterprises undergo maintenance, supply expectations are expected to tighten, and tin prices have surged close to the highest point in the year. But ultimately, due to high domestic inventory and poor downstream demand, the rise in tin prices was weak. On the supply side, the tight supply at the mining end is beginning to emerge, and the demand side is still in the off-season, and the market expects downstream demand to remain weak in the third quarter. In terms of inventory, domestic inventory is still at a high level. In general, tin is still in a pattern of weak supply and demand, and high inventory in China is still a factor restricting the upward trend of tin prices. With tin prices rising all the way, market transactions are generally weak. Downstream solder enterprises slow down procurement, mainly consuming inventory in the early stage, and transactions in the Spot market are light. In the future, the Business Society believes that tin prices are still following macro fluctuations in the near future. As August approaches, the focus will be on the further impact of Wa news on the market.

Related data:

On July 16th, the base metal index stood at 1222 points, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 24.38% from the cycle’s highest point of 1616 points (2022-03-09), and an increase of 90.34% from the lowest point of 642 points on November 24th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1st, 2011 to the present).

According to the price monitoring of Business Society, there were a total of 14 commodities in the non-ferrous sector on the list of commodity prices rising and falling in the 28th week of 2023 (7.10-7.14), with 2 commodities increasing by more than 5%, accounting for 8.7% of the monitored commodities in this sector; The top three commodities were Dysprosium(III) oxide (6.00%), silver (5.08%) and zinc (3.05%). There are a total of 8 products that have decreased compared to the previous month, with the top 3 products falling respectively being neodymium metal (-3.39%), antimony (-3.14%), and praseodymium metal (-2.39%). This week’s average increase or decrease was 0.95%.

In the first half of July, the price of dichloromethane rose. According to the commodity market analysis system of the business community, as of July 15, the average price of dichloromethane bulk water in Shandong was 2540 yuan/ton, up 8.55% from 2340 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. The price of raw methanol rose slightly, and the center of gravity of dichloromethane cost moved up slightly; The supply side of methane chloride declined slightly, and the downstream actively stocked up. The inventory pressure in the region was not large, driving the price of dichloromethane higher.

In the first half of the month, the start of the methane chloride plant slightly decreased, and the overall supply pressure slightly eased.

In the first half of the month, the price of raw methanol rose slightly, and the cost center of dichloromethane moved up. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of July 15th, the spot price of methanol was 2314 yuan/ton, an increase of 6.15% from 2180 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month.

The downstream refrigerant, pharmaceutical intermediates, diluent solvent industry started to fluctuate slightly, and the downstream gradually replenished at the beginning of the month, which just needed support for dichloromethane. However, as the price of dichloromethane rose, the market transactions turned thin again.

Future market forecast: Analysts from the methane chloride data of the business society believe that the downstream demand for dichloromethane is slightly on the sidelines at present, but the low pressure of supply in the region has formed a certain support for the price of dichloromethane. In addition, the price of raw materials is rising, and it is expected that the market of dichloromethane will be strong in the short term, and it will still be volatile and consolidation in the medium and long term if the demand does not increase significantly.

According to the commodity market analysis system of the business community, as of June 30, the quotation of Aluminium fluoride in China was 9900 yuan/ton, down 18.85% from 12200 yuan/ton of Aluminium fluoride on January 1. The price of raw materials fluctuated and fell, the cost of Aluminium fluoride fell, and the price of Aluminium fluoride fell in the first half of the year; Affected by the delayed price rise of raw material fluorite and hydrofluoric acid, the price of Aluminium fluoride rose first and then fell from May to June, and the overall market rise of Aluminium fluoride was not supported enough.

Annual price comparison chart of Aluminium fluoride

According to the commodity market analysis system of the business community, the price of Aluminium fluoride in 2023 will drop significantly compared with that in 2022; The price of Aluminium fluoride increased year on year compared with that of 20 and 21 years ago. In June, the price of Aluminium fluoride was relatively low, and the downward pressure of Aluminium fluoride was still limited.

The price of raw material hydrofluoric acid fluctuates and falls

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, on June 30th, the price of hydrofluoric acid was 9657.14 yuan/ton, a decrease of 22.74% compared to the price of 12500 yuan/ton on January 1st at the beginning of the year. The demand for downstream refrigerants is sluggish. In the first quarter, the price of hydrofluoric acid dropped sharply, with a maximum decline of 22.29%. Influenced by environmental protection and the unexpected shutdown of mines in the upstream, the price of hydrofluoric acid rose slightly in April, the peak season of downstream refrigerants was not strong, and the demand for hydrofluoric acid weakened. The price of hydrofluoric acid fell sharply from May to June, and the overall cost of Aluminium fluoride raw materials fell. In the first half of the year, Aluminium fluoride fell under great pressure.

The price of raw material fluorite fluctuates and falls

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, on June 30th, the price of fluorite was 3117.50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5.53% compared to the 3300 yuan/ton price on January 1st. Downstream off-season demand is weak, coupled with an increase in fluorite supply, resulting in a significant drop in fluorite prices from January to February; Due to environmental requirements and unexpected shutdown of fluorite mines, fluorite prices fluctuated and increased from March to April; The downstream peak season is not strong, and the demand for fluorite is less than expected. The rise of fluorite loses support, and the price of fluorite fluctuated and fell in June.

Market Overview and Forecast

The analysts of Aluminium fluoride industry from the business agency believe that the demand is cold, and the prices of fluorite and hydrofluoric acid fluctuated and fell in the first quarter; During the peak season, prices of fluorite and hydrofluoric acid rose first and then fell in the second quarter; In general, the cost of Aluminium fluoride raw materials has dropped significantly. In the downstream, the demand for electrolytic aluminum is weak, and the demand for Aluminium fluoride is insufficient. In general, in the first half of the year, the cost of Aluminium fluoride fell and demand was weak, so the downward pressure of Aluminium fluoride increased, and the price of Aluminium fluoride dropped sharply. In the future, the refrigerant peak season ended, the demand for fluorite and hydrofluoric acid was expected to decline, and the price of fluorite and hydrofluoric acid rose too weak to increase the downward pressure. The demand for downstream electrolytic aluminum was expected to recover, the demand for Aluminium fluoride was expected to rise slightly, the demand for cost reduction was expected to recover, and Aluminium fluoride was mixed with space, The inventory of Aluminium fluoride periodicals is high, and there is almost no risk of demand shortage. Cost factors mainly affect the trend of Aluminium fluoride. It is expected that the price of Aluminium fluoride will fall slightly in the future.

According to the commodity market analysis system of the business community, as of June 30, the price of O-Xylene was 8100 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.85% from the price of 7800 yuan/ton on January 1 at the beginning of the year. In the first half of the year, the price of ortho benzene first rose and then fell. From January to April, the price of ortho benzene continued to rise, while in May, the price of ortho benzene significantly decreased. From January to April, crude oil prices stabilized at high levels, mixed xylene prices fluctuated and increased, and the cost of ortho benzene increased; 5. In June, mixed xylene fluctuated and fell, resulting in a decrease in costs and increased downward pressure on adjacent benzene.

According to the commodity market analysis system of the business community, the price of O-Xylene in 2023 will rise sharply compared with that in 20 and 21 years. In 2022, the prices of ortho benzene stabilized at a high level throughout the year. In 2023, the prices of ortho benzene increased year-on-year from January to February, and from March to May, the prices of ortho benzene remained relatively high. In June 2023, the prices of ortho benzene decreased year-on-year, but remained at a high level.

Price fluctuation chart of ortho benzene industry chain

According to the commodity market analysis system of the Business Society, the price of raw material mixed xylene has significantly fluctuated and increased, while the cost of ortho benzene has increased. Downstream phthalic anhydride prices have fluctuated and decreased, resulting in weak demand for ortho benzene. In the first half of the year, the price of ortho benzene first rose and then fell, with increased cost support and weak demand. The downward pressure in the future has weakened, and the upward momentum still exists.

The market for raw material mixed xylene increased significantly in the first half of the year

According to the market analysis system of mixed xylene products in the Business Society, as of June 30th, the price of mixed xylene was 7340 yuan/ton, an increase of 9.39% compared to the price of mixed xylene on January 1st at the beginning of the year, which was 6710 yuan/ton. In the first half of the year, the price of mixed xylene first rose, then fell, and then rose. Affected by the rise in crude oil prices, the mixed xylene market fluctuated and rose from January to April. With the intensification of macroeconomic risk aversion, the mixed xylene price fluctuated and fell; With the economic recovery, the price of crude oil and the price of mixed xylene rise in shock, and the O-Xylene market in the future has a strong upward momentum.

Downstream phthalic anhydride market fluctuates and falls

According to the analysis system of the market for phthalic anhydride products in the Business Society, as of June 30th, the price of phthalic anhydride was 7700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.50% compared to the price of 8062.50 yuan/ton on January 1st at the beginning of the year. The trend of OX is relatively positively correlated with the trend of phthalic anhydride. From January to April, the price of phthalic anhydride fluctuated and increased, downstream demand rebounded, and the price of neighboring benzene continued to rise; In May, the price of phthalic anhydride fluctuated and decreased, while the price of ortho benzene decreased; In June, the price of phthalic anhydride first fell and then rose, while the price of ortho benzene temporarily stabilized.

Future prospects

Analysts of O-Xylene data from the business community believe that in the first half of the year, the price of o-xylene rose first and then fell, and the overall cost of o-xylene supported limited demand remains weak. In June, the price of mixed xylene and phthalic anhydride fell first and then rose, and the downward pressure of O-Xylene weakened and the upward momentum remained. In late June, the price of mixed xylene and phthalic anhydride rebounded and adjusted, the upstream and downstream market of O-Xylene recovered, and the downward pressure of O-Xylene weakened. Overall, there is significant downward pressure on ortho benzene. With the rebound of mixed xylene and phthalic anhydride prices, the support for the rise of the ortho benzene industry chain is increasing. It is expected that the prices of ortho benzene will remain strong and stable in the future, and there is still momentum for the rise of ortho benzene in the future.

1、 Price data

According to the commodity analysis system of the business community, the price of Petroleum coke of the local refiners rose sharply this week. On July 9, the average price of Shandong market was 1866.50 yuan/ton, 5.07% higher than the price of 1776.50 yuan/ton on July 3.

On July 9, the Petroleum coke commodity index was 145.17, unchanged from yesterday, 64.48% lower than the cycle’s highest point 408.70 (2022-05-11), and 117.03% higher than the lowest point 66.89 on March 28, 2016. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 30th, 2012 to the present)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

The price of Petroleum coke produced by local refineries rose sharply this week. The inventory of Petroleum coke produced by local refineries in Shandong was at a medium low level. Downstream enterprises had good enthusiasm for replenishment, and local refineries had good turnover. At present, the port Petroleum coke inventory is at a high level, and the terminal just needs replenishment, so the overall trade is general.

This week, the international crude oil market fluctuated and rose. The expectation of tight supply due to OPEC tightening production in the oil producing country has overshadowed concerns about slowing demand due to the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hike. The decline of the US dollar provides support for crude oil; The production reduction of the OPEC and its allies (OPEC+) increased supply concerns; The United States will purchase 6 million barrels of crude oil to fill its strategic oil reserves.

The price of calcined coke has slightly increased this week. The trend of metal silicon rose slightly. As of July 9, the average price of 441 # metal silicon in the Spot market was 13740 yuan/ton. The downstream electrolytic aluminum market is fluctuating and declining, with an average price of 18223.33 yuan/ton as of July 9th. Downstream enterprises have good enthusiasm for replenishment, local refining enterprises have good turnover, and the terminal just needs to support the price of local refining Petroleum coke.

Petroleum coke analysts from the business community believe that at present, the inventory of Petroleum coke produced by Shandong Local Refining Co., Ltd. is at a medium low level, downstream enterprises have good enthusiasm for replenishment, local refining enterprises have good turnover and investment, and the terminal just needs to support the price of Petroleum coke produced by Shandong Local Refining Co., Ltd. However, the domestic coking units have been overhauled in succession, and the domestic production of Petroleum coke has increased slightly. In addition, the port Petroleum coke resources are sufficient, and the terminal replenishment capacity is limited. It is expected that in the near future, the local refining of Petroleum coke will be dominated by shocks.

Price trend

In early July, the domestic POM market was positive, with spot prices rising. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of July 7th, the average factory price of domestic POM was 11475 yuan/ton, a decrease of+3.38% compared to the price level at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

In terms of raw materials:

According to the analysis system chart of the commodity market of the Business Society, the formaldehyde market prices in the Shandong region were sorted and operated in early July. The main focus is on the sorting of raw material methanol, and the expected increase in market supply and inventory. Downstream sheet metal factories have poor operating rates due to high temperatures, causing a tug of war between supply and demand. It is expected that formaldehyde prices will mainly fluctuate and adjust in the near future.

On the supply side:

The operating rate of domestic POM enterprises remained high in early July, and some maintenance enterprises in the early stage resumed work. Currently, the industry’s load is about 94% close to full capacity. The high load situation continues, but after initial destocking, the inventory pressure of most enterprises gradually decreases and the supply of goods becomes tight.

In terms of demand:

At present, the POM supply on site has decreased, and the enthusiasm of terminal enterprises for stocking has increased. However, the impact of limited electricity and other factors on downstream enterprises’ operating rates has not improved, and the consumption release situation is average, with limited impact on spot prices. Traders have decent confidence.

Future Market Forecast

The POM market rose this week. The operating rate of domestic polymerization plants remains high, and the supply of goods on site is beginning to be tight. Industry inventory pressure has eased, and supplier support for spot goods is still acceptable. On the demand side, downstream enterprises have started construction on a low level and the order situation is average. There is currently some speculative sentiment on the market, and it is expected that the POM market may rise in the short term due to a decrease in supply.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, from June 29th to July 6th, the market price of butadiene in China increased from 5973 yuan/ton to 6362 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 6.51% during the cycle, a month on month increase of 0.60%, and a year-on-year decrease of 38.90%.

Major production enterprises such as Sinopec have raised their factory quotations, which has boosted the mentality of merchants in offering, but downstream companies are resistant to high prices. The transaction of some offshore cargo in South Korea and Southeast Asia is still acceptable, but the price is still lower than the domestic spot price, so it is temporarily difficult to bring a significant boost to the domestic market.

On the cost side, in terms of crude oil: International crude oil prices have fluctuated upwards, and WTI crude oil in the United States was closed on Tuesday. Affected by supply cuts from Saudi Arabia and Russia, prices have increased. In addition, data from the American Chamber of Petroleum (API) shows a significant decrease in US inventory last week. On July 6th, the benchmark price of Brent crude oil in the business community was 76.25 US dollars per barrel, an increase of 2.34% compared to the beginning of this month (74.51 US dollars per barrel).

In terms of Naphtha, the domestic Naphtha market is weak. On July 6th, the benchmark price of Brent crude oil in the business community was 76.25 US dollars per barrel, an increase of 2.34% compared to the beginning of this month (74.51 US dollars per barrel). The cost of butadiene is mixed.

On the supply side, the main production enterprise Sinopec East China Sales Company has raised the price of butadiene by a cumulative 500 yuan/ton, and as of July 6th, the listed price was 6600 yuan/ton. The shutdown of Shandong Weite and Hangzhou Yibang units has had a positive impact on the short-term supply of butadiene.

On the demand side, dragged by cost and demand side bearish factors, the downstream synthetic rubber market is weak and declining, and downstream procurement enthusiasm is not high, with on-demand procurement being the main focus. The synchronous downtrend of upstream and downstream products affects the industrial chain profits, making it difficult to effectively move down, and it is difficult to find demand support in the butadiene market. The demand for butadiene is weak.

On July 5th, the closing price of butadiene in Asia remained stable: FOB South Korea was quoted at 585-595 US dollars per ton; China CFR report $645-655 per ton. The external price of butadiene in Europe remained stable: FOB Rotterdam closed at $365- $375 per ton; FD Northwestern Europe closed at 555-565 euros/ton.

In the future market forecast, although the supplier price is relatively strong, the external price is still lower than the domestic spot price, causing downstream merchants to be cautious about future market expectations. Butadiene analysts from Business Society predict that the domestic butadiene market will mainly fluctuate and consolidate.

Aluminum prices moved down on July 5th

 
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, on July 5, 2023, the average price of domestic aluminum ingots in the East China market was 18326.67 yuan/ton, a daily decrease of 1.22%.

In the long term, the current price is in the sideways range after a high price decline, and has been fluctuating in the range of 17500 to 19500 yuan/ton.

Overview of Fundamentals

Supply side: During the rainy season in the southwest region, with the lifting of power load restrictions in Yunnan, it is expected that there will be a production capacity of 1 to 1.3 million tons to resume production, and there is an expected increase in domestic electrolytic aluminum supply; At the same time, there is news of a production reduction in Shandong. Overall, there is an expected increase in the supply of electrolytic aluminum in China.

On the demand side: The weekly operating rate of downstream processing enterprises is expected to decrease month on month, and there may be no significant improvement near the off-season in the future. The overall weakness of terminal real estate is still weak, but there is support for the completion end of the short-term insured delivery policy, with weak data on new construction projects, and stronger demand for aluminum downstream in the near term than in the long term; Looking forward to the growth of new energy vehicles, photovoltaic, and ultra-high voltage industries in the later stage.

July aluminum price or 18000 yuan/ton first-line horizontal range

Aluminum ingot inventory is still at a historical low level, and Yunnan production is expected to release. From a cost perspective, in terms of alumina, due to the resumption of electrolytic aluminum production capacity in Yunnan and the news that local alumina production capacity will be reduced due to mine reclamation in Henan, the short-term volatility of alumina prices is relatively strong, and the cost support is slightly strengthened. Short term supply pressure may become prominent at the end of July, and it is expected that the social inventory of aluminum ingots will accumulate in July. Short term aluminum prices will move sideways around the 18000 price range.