After the Spring Festival, the domestic polyester filament market prices have adjusted strongly, and mainstream polyester filament factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang have a strong sense of price increase. Among them, POY (150D/48F) is priced at 7700-8000 yuan/ton, polyester DTY (150D/48F low elasticity) is priced at 9000-9300 yuan/ton, and polyester FDY (150D/96F) is priced at 8450-8700 yuan/ton. The strengthening of crude oil on the cost side is supported by favorable factors, and downstream textile enterprises are gradually resuming work, with a focus on on-demand procurement.

On February 18th, the average price increase and decrease of domestic polyester filament market Unit: yuan/ton

Product/ February 6th/ February 18th/ Up and down/ Year-on-year rise and fall

Polyester DTY/ 9092./9137./0.49%/ 3.56%

Polyester FDY/ 8646./8684./0.44%/ 5.44%

Polyester POY/ 7840./7898/ 0.74%/ 3.86%

The geopolitical crisis continues to affect supply, and crude oil continues to strengthen. As of February 16th, the settlement price of the US WTI crude oil futures main contract was $78.46 per barrel, and the settlement price of Brent crude oil futures main contract was $83.47 per barrel.

During the Spring Festival holiday, the domestic PTA futures market remained silent, and CFR China’s trend followed the strength of crude oil. As of February 16th, CFR China rose to $778 per ton, up 2.10% before the holiday.

In the short term, international crude oil prices are temporarily strong, and the peak production of PX has passed. The future increase in production capacity is limited, and the supply situation remains tight. At the same time, the seasonal maintenance cycle of PX is approaching. In terms of PTA, with the expansion of the industry, there is still overcapacity. By the end of 2023, the total PTA production capacity reached 80.615 million tons, with a growth rate of 16.4%. The processing fee is showing a decreasing trend year by year, and some mainstream PTA suppliers have released maintenance plans for March and April, supporting the temporary healthy operation of processing fees. The downstream terminal textile demand will gradually recover with the resumption of work during the Spring Festival, and with the traditional peak season approaching in March, domestic and foreign trade orders will heat up.

Analysts from Business Society believe that under the expectation of a stronger upstream and downstream market, the price center of polyester filament may continue to shift upwards.

Product name: 46 grade 10 titanium concentrate

Latest price on February 7th: 2266.67 yuan/ton

Key points of analysis: On February 7th, the market price of titanium concentrate remained temporarily stable. At present, the spot market for titanium concentrate is relatively tight, and the market quotation is relatively firm. Downstream titanium dioxide enterprises have a sluggish market, and as the Spring Festival holiday approaches, most of them have started to take a break. As of now, the tax-free quotation for 38-42 grade titanium ore is around 1550-1580 yuan/ton, the tax-free quotation for 46 grade 10 titanium concentrate is around 2260-2280 yuan/ton, and the quotation for 47 grade 20 titanium concentrate is around 2350-2480 yuan/ton.

In the short term, the market price of titanium concentrate remains strong and the actual transaction price is negotiable.

Product Name: Isopropanol

Latest price: 8170 yuan/ton

Key points of analysis: On February 6th, the market price of isopropanol remained temporarily stable, and the trading atmosphere on the market was average. The upstream acetone market is currently operating steadily, with average support from the upstream. As the Spring Festival holiday approaches, downstream enterprises have basically started to take a break, and market transportation has also begun to stop operating. The overall market trading is relatively light.

It is expected that the isopropanol market will remain stable in the short term.

The recent market trend of epoxy propane has been mainly stable. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of February 5th, the average price of epoxy propane for enterprises was 9237.50 yuan/ton, which remained unchanged compared to the beginning of the month and increased by 0.96% compared to the same period last year.

Cost side: According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the domestic propylene (Shandong) market prices have recently stopped falling and risen, providing general support for the epoxy propane market.

Supply and demand side: At the beginning of the month, the supply side was mainly stable, and downstream demand followed up moderately. Factory shipments were still acceptable, and inventory pressure was controllable. As terminals gradually withdrew from the market, downstream new orders were average, and the pace of purchasing epoxy propane slowed down. The market was operating weakly. On February 5th, the mainstream quotation in the Shandong epoxy propane market was around 8800 yuan/ton.

Business Society’s epoxy propane analyst believes that currently, the price of raw material propylene is rising, and the cost support is still acceptable. Downstream follow-up is average, and it is expected that in the short term, the epoxy propane market may wait and see, and more attention needs to be paid to market news guidance.

Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, sulfur prices in East China have slightly increased this week. On February 4th, sulfur prices were at 940.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.71% compared to 933.33 yuan/ton on January 29th, and a decrease of 8.44% compared to the beginning of the month.

This week, the sulfur market has been consolidating and running. During the week, some refineries in Shandong region reduced production, resulting in a decrease in market supply of goods. Downstream main factories were able to prepare goods before the holiday, and manufacturers shipped smoothly. Refineries raised their prices slightly based on their own shipment situation. In terms of ports, the replenishment atmosphere of terminals and traders gradually weakened, weakening support for the spot market, and sulfur market prices remained stable with little movement. As of the 4th, the mainstream price of solid sulfur in refineries in Shandong region is around 930-970 yuan/ton; The mainstream price of liquid sulfur is between 920-1000 yuan/ton.

Downstream market trends in the industrial chain

The downstream sulfuric acid market is operating weakly and steadily. On February 4th, the average domestic sulfuric acid price was 187.50 yuan/ton, which is% the same as the price of 187.50 yuan/ton on January 29th. On site enterprises have stable production, sufficient market supply, and insufficient downstream demand. They follow up on stocking according to demand, while acid companies have average shipments. The mentality of manufacturers is deadlocked, and the short-term sulfuric acid market is wait-and-see.

The downstream ammonium phosphate market is weak and declining. On February 4th, the average market price of 55% powdered ammonium phosphate was 3133.33 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.19% compared to the price of 3203.33 yuan/ton on January 29th. The supply of monoammonium phosphate in the market has contracted, but downstream demand has remained weak, with weak follow-up on new orders, insufficient market transactions, and significant sales pressure from manufacturers. As a result, the price of monoammonium continues to decline.

Future Market Forecast

According to sulfur analysts from Business Society, as the Spring Festival holiday approaches and the market transaction atmosphere is mild, sulfur companies are actively shipping, while downstream stocking enthusiasm is average. It is expected that the short-term sulfur market will remain stable and operate on a wait-and-see basis, and specific attention will be paid to downstream follow-up.

The melamine market has remained stable this week. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of February 2nd, the average price of melamine enterprises was 7450.00 yuan/ton, which is unchanged from Monday (January 29th).

Cost side: According to the analysis system chart of the commodity market in Shengyi Society, the reference price of urea on February 1st was 2431.67, a decrease of 2.15% compared to January 1st (2485.00). Recently, the market price of raw material urea has risen, and the cost is still supported by the melamine market.

Supply and demand side: Recently, some enterprises have recovered their equipment, and the industry’s capacity utilization rate has increased. As downstream factories gradually relax, the demand side has slowed down, and there are sufficient orders waiting to be issued by enterprises. The focus of negotiations in the melamine market has remained stable, with some enterprises offering discounts and receiving orders.

Melamine analysts from Business Society believe that the current cost impact is limited, the industry is operating at a high level, and companies are mainly executing advance orders in an orderly manner. It is expected that in the short term, the melamine market may stabilize and operate, and more attention needs to be paid to market news guidance.

According to monitoring data from Business Society, as of February 2, 2023, the reference price of n-butanol in Shandong Province, China was 8850 yuan/ton. Compared with January 28 (reference price of n-butanol was 8700 yuan/ton), the price increased by 150 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.72%.

From the monitoring chart of Business Society data, it can be seen that this week (1.29-2.2), the overall market for n-butanol in Shandong, China, showed a steady upward trend. During the week, downstream users of n-butanol were generally in a stocking cycle, with good shipments in the n-butanol market and active buying atmosphere on the market. The boost from the demand side supported the stable and strong operation of the n-butanol market, and the overall transaction price of n-butanol was approaching a high level. As of February 2nd, the domestic market price of n-butanol in Shandong region is around 8800-8900 yuan/ton, with a weekly price increase of 100-200 yuan/ton.

Future analysis

At present, the trading atmosphere in the n-butanol market is mild, and downstream demand is stocking up. The utilization rate of n-butanol production capacity has slightly increased during the week, and the overall supply and demand transmission in the market is good. The n-butanol data analyst from Business Society believes that in the short term, the domestic n-butanol market will mostly operate steadily with a strong bias, and specific trends still need to pay more attention to changes in supply and demand news.

The price of plasticizer DOP fluctuated and fell in January

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of January 31st, the price of DOP was 11770 yuan/ton, a fluctuating decrease of 2.66% compared to the price of 12091.67 yuan/ton on January 1st. The price of raw material isooctanol was discounted for sales, and the cost of plasticizer DOP decreased. In January, DOP prices fluctuated and fell.

The price of isooctanol fluctuated and fell in January

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of January 31st, the quotation for isooctanol was 12350 yuan/ton, a fluctuating decrease of 4.63% compared to the quotation for isooctanol on January 1st, which was 12950 yuan/ton. In December, Qilu Petrochemical’s isooctanol equipment was shut down due to an accident, and the price of isooctanol skyrocketed. At the beginning of the month, the price of isooctanol remained high, and the supply of isooctanol exceeded the demand. Isooctanol manufacturers offered discounts to sell, causing the price of isooctanol to fluctuate and fall; As the Spring Festival approaches, plasticizer manufacturers are stocking up, the price of isooctanol has stopped falling, raw material support has weakened, and DOP prices have fallen. With isooctanol stopping its decline, DOP has some upward support.

Future expectations

Business Society plasticizer product data analysts believe that in January, the raw material isooctanol fluctuated and fell, and the cost support for plasticizer DOP was insufficient, increasing the downward pressure on DOP. In the future, as the Spring Festival approaches and inventory increases, coupled with the rebound in raw material prices, it is expected that DOP prices will slightly increase in the future.

Recently (1.26-1.31), the market for trichloromethane has risen. According to data from Business Society, as of January 31st, the price of trichloromethane bulk water in Shandong Province was 2300 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.73% from 2283 yuan/ton on January 26th. The price of raw material methanol has fluctuated lower, the price range of liquid chlorine has been consolidated, and the cost support for dichloromethane is weak; The downstream refrigerant market is for winter storage and stocking, and phased replenishment provides certain support for trichloromethane. In addition, the overall low inventory of manufacturers has led to a slight increase in the price of trichloromethane. As of January 31, the mainstream factory price of trichloromethane in Shandong region is around 2250-2350 yuan/ton. But as the Spring Festival approaches and winter storage and stocking gradually end, the demand for trichloromethane is gradually weakening.

Recently (1.25-1.31), the domestic supply of methane chlorides has slightly increased.

Recently (1.26-1.31), the price of raw material methanol has slightly decreased, and the price of liquid chlorine has stabilized at a low level. The cost support for trichloromethane is weak. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of January 31st, the spot price of methanol was 2580 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.34% from 2615 yuan/ton on the 25th. As of January 31st, the acceptance price of liquid chlorine tank trucks in Shandong region is around 250 yuan/ton, which is lower than the previous price.

During the mid to low season, the winter storage of terminal refrigerants has been partially stocked, which has strengthened the demand for trichloromethane. At the end of the month, the phased stocking ended, and the demand support for trichloromethane was weak.

Analysts from Business Society’s methane chloride data believe that cost and demand support is weak, but there is not much pressure on corporate inventory. It is expected that the trichloromethane market will narrow before the holiday.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the domestic price of LLDPE (7042) was 8237 yuan/ton on January 1, and the average price on January 30 was 8257 yuan/ton, with a 0.24% increase in quotation during this period.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the domestic price of LDPE (2426H) was 9082 yuan/ton on January 1st, and the average price on January 30th was 9200 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 1.29% during the period.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the domestic price of HDPE (5000S) was 8500 yuan/ton on January 1st, and the average price on January 30th was 8437 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 0.74% during the period.

In January, polyethylene generally showed a decline followed by an increase, with LDPE showing a significant increase, while HDPE prices remained stable after mid month. After New Year’s Day, petrochemical enterprises have accumulated inventory, and supply side pressure still exists, suppressing the narrow fluctuation and decline of the polyethylene market. After mid month, the futures market has strengthened, driving a slight increase in polyethylene spot prices. Positive factors include a rebound in crude oil prices, expectations for a domestic interest rate cut, and the approaching Spring Festival with demand for restocking in the market, which has led to a narrow upward trend in the polyethylene market.

After the decline at the beginning of the month, polyethylene futures have shown a strong trend, which is beneficial for the spot market. On January 30th, the opening price of the polyethylene l2405 contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange was 8314 yuan, and the closing price was 8264 yuan, a decrease of 24 yuan. The highest price was 8330 yuan, and the lowest was 8261 yuan, a decrease of 0.29%.

The pressure on polyethylene supply is still on, and as the Spring Festival approaches, downstream factories are gradually taking holidays, resulting in weaker demand; It is expected that polyethylene will undergo a narrow adjustment in operation before the Spring Festival, with limited upward space.