According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the average price of LLDPE (7042) was 8253 yuan/ton on February 27th and 8230 yuan/ton on March 6th, with a price drop of 0.28% during this period. LDPE (2426H) had an average price of 10150 yuan/ton on February 27th and 10150 yuan/ton on March 6th, during which the quotation remained stable. HDPE (2426H) had an average price of 8387 yuan/ton on February 27th and 8437 yuan/ton on March 6th, with a price increase of 0.60% during this period.

The unexpected increase in US crude oil inventories, coupled with market concerns about trade risks caused by US tariffs, has led to a sustained decline in international oil prices, which has to some extent negatively impacted the polyethylene market. The linear product trend is running narrowly and weakly, with ample supply suppressing the linear product trend; After a slight increase in low-voltage products due to equipment maintenance and production conversion news, the upward momentum is insufficient. In March, plastic film enters the peak season, and the production rate of agricultural film is expected to increase, but the increase is slowing down. The increase in downstream orders is limited, and there is insufficient action on the demand side.

Newly added maintenance for the HDPE Phase II unit of China Korea Petrochemical and the LDPE Phase II unit of Zhejiang Petrochemical, but the supply side pressure is still high; The downstream reception enthusiasm is not high, and it is expected that there will be significant upward pressure on polyethylene.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of March 5, 2025, the reference price of n-butanol in Shandong Province, China is 7050 yuan/ton. Compared with March 1 (reference price of n-butanol is 7133 yuan/ton), the price has decreased by 83 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.17%.

In the first week of March, the n-butanol market in Shandong Province, China, showed a weak operating trend. Some n-butanol factories in Shandong region have narrowly reduced the price of n-butanol by 50-100 yuan/ton. On March 5th, the ex factory price of n-butanol in Shandong region was around 7000-7200 yuan/ton.

Analysis of Market Factors

On the demand side: Currently, inquiries for n-butanol in the market are cautious, downstream users are restocking at low prices, and purchasing intentions are poor. The overall demand transmission is loose, providing limited support for n-butanol.

On the supply side: Currently, due to cautious demand, some n-butanol factories are facing certain supply pressure on the overall supply side to ensure low inventory levels, and the market support provided by the supply side is limited.

Market analysis in the future

At present, the trading atmosphere of n-butanol is light, the overall market trading volume is average, the supply and demand transmission is loose, and the effective support of the market is weak. Business Society’s n-butanol data analyst predicts that in the short term, the domestic n-butanol market will mainly experience narrow adjustments, and specific changes in supply and demand information need to be closely monitored.

1、 Price stability

Specific price: As of March 4th, the benchmark price of melamine in Shengyi Society was 6275.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.12% compared to the beginning of this month (6267.50 yuan/ton). This slight increase indicates that market prices have not fluctuated significantly and the overall trend is stable.

Historical comparison: Over a longer period of time, although the price of melamine has fluctuated, there has not been a significant increase or decrease in recent times.

2、 Market supply-demand balance

Stable production capacity: Due to equipment aging, malfunctions, or maintenance needs, some melamine production units may still undergo planned maintenance this week. These maintenance activities are usually notified in advance and minimize the impact on production as much as possible. The implementation of the maintenance plan will have an impact on the supply and demand relationship of the melamine market. If maintenance leads to a decrease in supply while demand remains stable or increases, it may have a certain impact on market prices.

Stable downstream demand: The demand for melamine in downstream industries such as sheet metal and coatings remains stable without significant growth or decline. This stable downstream demand has to some extent supported the smooth operation of the melamine market.

3、 Inventory and raw material impact

Inventory adjustment: Some melamine production enterprises may adjust their inventory to cope with fluctuations in raw material prices. This inventory adjustment mechanism has to some extent stabilized market prices and reduced the direct impact of raw material price fluctuations on the market.

Raw material prices: Although there may still be some volatility in the future raw material urea market, the current impact of raw material prices on the melamine market is relatively limited. This is due to the combined effect of market supply and demand balance and inventory adjustment mechanism. As of March 4th, the benchmark price of urea in Shengyi Society was 1876.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of -0.85% compared to the beginning of this month (1892.00 yuan/ton).

4、 Market prospects

Market size growth: According to market analysis reports, the melamine market size is expected to continue to grow. For example, the global melamine market is expected to reach approximately $7.5 billion by 2025. This growth trend provides broad development space for the melamine market.

Uncertainty factor: Although the melamine market remained stable this week, there is still some uncertainty in the future market trend. Fluctuations in raw material prices, changes in downstream demand, and policy adjustments may all have an impact on market prices. Therefore, enterprises need to closely monitor market dynamics and policy changes, and develop reasonable business strategies to cope with potential market risks.

In summary, the melamine market was mainly stable this week, thanks to the combined effects of multiple factors such as market supply and demand balance, stable production capacity, inventory regulation, and relatively stable raw material prices. However, there is still some uncertainty in the future market, and companies need to respond flexibly.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic MTBE market is weakly consolidated. From February 1st to 28th, MTBE prices fell from 5975 yuan/ton to 5875 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 1.67% during the period and a year-on-year price drop of 11.32%.

After the holiday, the domestic MTBE market trend is weak, and the demand for gasoline terminals is sluggish. Industry players only purchase a small amount of related gasoline components on demand, and MTBE manufacturers’ shipments are cold, with prices mainly falling and consolidating.

At the end of the month, the domestic MTBE market showed some upward trend due to the export consolidation of some large manufacturers, resulting in relatively tight domestic resource supply. At the same time, transactions improved, end-users moderately purchased, and manufacturers’ shipments improved, actively pushing up offers.

As the end of the month approaches, the MTBE market experiences sporadic narrow fluctuations. Due to the overall weakness of the gasoline market, businesses tend to purchase relevant gasoline components on demand, and the market is unlikely to have significant upward potential. The MTBE market is mainly characterized by small-scale fluctuations.

On the cost side, international crude oil prices showed an overall downward trend in February, and the average price also decreased compared to January. In the first half of the year, commercial crude oil and gasoline inventories in the United States increased significantly, coupled with market concerns about the risk of trade disputes, and Trump’s reaffirmation of increasing US crude oil production, leading to a decline in international oil prices. In the middle of the month, market concerns about the potential drag on demand from US tariffs have weakened, while US sanctions on some oil producing countries continue. Market concerns about potential supply risks have increased, coupled with the possibility of OPEC+delaying production increases, leading to an increase in international oil prices. The acceleration of the Russia Ukraine peace talks in the latter half of the year has led to a reduction in geopolitical risks, and the United States may impose tariffs on multiple countries and organizations, including the European Union, causing a decline in international oil prices.

On the demand side, international crude oil futures have fluctuated downward, and the refined oil market has weakened downward. Among them, gasoline prices have fallen significantly due to weak demand, while diesel prices have been supported by gradually increasing demand. Most refineries in the region have adjusted their sales strategies based on their own shipment and inventory situation, and downstream businesses have purchased according to demand while consuming inventory. The market trading atmosphere is flat. Short term MTBE demand is influenced by bearish factors.

On the supply side, it is expected that there may be an increase in resource supply in the near future. Short term domestic MTBE supply is affected by bearish factors.

As of the close on February 27th, the closing price of the Asian MTBE market has decreased by $4.78/ton compared to the previous trading day, with FOB Singapore closing at $728.46-730.46/ton. The closing price of the European MTBE market increased by $6.25/ton compared to the previous trading day, and FOB ARA closed at $868.24-868.74/ton. The closing price of the MTBE market in the United States increased by $6.23/ton compared to the previous trading day, and the FOB Gulf offshore price closed at $778.73-779.08/ton (219.88-219.98 cents/gallon).

In the future, the gasoline market is expected to remain stable with a narrow range of weakness. MTBE analysts from Shengyi Society predict that the short-term MTBE market will experience narrow fluctuations between small areas, making it difficult for prices to make significant adjustments.

In February, the domestic acrylonitrile market price surged and fell back

In the second week after the Spring Festival, the domestic acrylonitrile market ended its nearly 40 day unilateral rapid upward trend, with prices peaking at a high level of 12000 yuan/ton and gradually beginning to decline. This round of price increase reached 2400 yuan/ton, an increase of 25%, and the price peak this time also reached the highest level since January 2022. As the main positive factors that stimulated this round of price increases have been completely digested, the tight supply situation has been eased, and coupled with insufficient downstream consumption follow-up after the holiday, the acrylonitrile market has started a sustained downward trend.

High profits stimulate production enthusiasm and significantly increase supply

At the same time as the current surge in acrylonitrile prices, there has been no significant change in upstream raw material costs, and due to the weakening of propylene prices, the theoretical production cost of acrylonitrile has decreased by 200-300 yuan/ton compared to early January. Due to the significant increase in acrylonitrile prices, its production profit has rapidly expanded to over 2000 yuan/ton, forming a significant contrast with the same period in previous years, as shown in the following figure.

Stimulated by considerable production profits, the supply of acrylonitrile is gradually showing signs of recovery and growth. At present, the industry’s capacity utilization rate has reached around 90%, an increase of about 15% compared to before the Spring Festival, and the supply of acrylonitrile has significantly increased.

Downstream industries resist the stagnation of spot buying of raw materials

While the supply of acrylonitrile is gradually recovering, overall downstream consumption has shown a weak trend after the Spring Festival, especially in the small and medium-sized downstream sectors where resumption of work has been slower than in previous years. On the one hand, there is insufficient follow-up of terminal consumption, and on the other hand, after the high price of acrylonitrile, the main downstream industries such as acrylic fiber and acrylamide are facing losses, which affects their operating pace, especially the acrylic fiber industry, whose operating load has dropped to less than 50% after the holiday. During the Spring Festival, due to weakened demand from downstream industries, sales of acrylonitrile products were not smooth, and only the demand from contracted customers remained stable. Under the bearish sentiment, traders actively shipped goods, and some traders lowered their sales prices to seize market share, leading to a rapid decline in spot market prices.

In addition, the current acrylonitrile market still uses contract settlement as the main pricing model, and suppliers are actively increasing their volume this month due to high expectations of a month on month increase in settlement in February. But currently, the price difference between spot and contract is gradually widening, which may to some extent affect the execution of local contracts and force manufacturers to further lower their quotes.

In the future, the supply and demand pressure in the raw material propylene market is still acceptable, and production enterprises are selling at stable prices. The overall market mentality is relatively cautious, and it is expected that propylene prices will continue to operate at a low level in the short term, which will provide certain support for the acrylonitrile market. On the supply side, there is an expectation of new equipment being put into operation next month, so the supply pressure has increased. In terms of demand, with the gradual recovery of downstream industries, the demand for acrylonitrile is expected to rebound. However, due to environmental policies and other factors that will still have a certain impact on downstream industries, demand growth may be limited. Therefore, there is still room for decline in the spot market.

Overall, the supply and demand relationship in the acrylonitrile market has changed, and in the short term, the supply is expected to increase. The industry is facing a prominent oversupply situation, and with the gradual increase in inventory, downward pressure on the market still exists.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of polyester filament has shown a fluctuating and slightly rising trend this month, but the overall trend is relatively stable. As we enter the end of the month, some manufacturers mainly offer discounts for shipments. On February 28th, the mainstream polyester filament factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang quoted POY (150D/48F) at 7300-7400 yuan/ton, polyester DTY (150D/48F low elasticity) at 8450-8600 yuan/ton, and polyester FDY (150D/96F) at 7600-7800 yuan/ton.

In terms of cost, international crude oil prices have fluctuated (such as the average price of WTI crude oil in February being about $75/barrel), PTA processing fees remain at a low level of 300-350 yuan/ton, and the cost side has weak support for polyester filament. The center of gravity of ethylene glycol prices has shifted downwards, coupled with a slowdown in demand growth, further weakening cost support.

In terms of demand, the operating rate of the polyester filament industry increased in February, and the previous shutdown reduction devices were gradually restarted. However, the recovery rate of downstream weaving enterprises was slow (the load rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang weaving machines was about 67%), and the mismatch between supply and demand led to inventory accumulation. After the Spring Festival, the downstream replenishment demand was lower than expected, and the market mainly focused on essential procurement. Some polyester filament production enterprises adjust their production strategies based on market demand and raw material prices. Some enterprises try to increase their quotations, but most focus on shipping. At the end of the month, the profit margin for some specifications of products was moderately reduced, and the proportion of low-priced source transactions increased.

In terms of inventory, the average production and sales of polyester is 40%, and the overall inventory is concentrated in 9-19 days; In terms of specific products, POY inventory is around 9-20 days, FDY inventory is around 7-19 days, and DTY inventory is around 8-20 days.

Overall, currently, the prices of polyester filament in most polyester factories remain largely unchanged, and there is a high probability of short-term weak adjustment. Next, as the traditional “golden three silver four” consumption peak season approaches, if downstream textile and clothing orders significantly recover, coupled with export recovery (Southeast Asian demand growth), prices may rebound temporarily. Business Society believes that the decline in the polyester filament market is limited.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic PTA spot market in February first rose and then fell. As of February 27th, the average price of PTA in the East China region was 4967 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.5% from the beginning of the month. In the first half of the month, some PX facilities reduced their load and shut down, which boosted the strong rise of PX and boosted PTA. Subsequently, with the easing of the geopolitical situation in Europe and the decline in international crude oil prices, the support for PTA costs weakened, and demand recovery fell short of expectations, which negatively impacted PTA prices.

Looking at the future, under the low processing fees, PTA factories will undergo more maintenance. At the end of February, the PTA industry’s operating rate was around 79%. In March and April, some units will still be under maintenance, including a 2.2 million ton production line in Northeast China scheduled for maintenance on March 1st, a 1.2 million ton PTA unit in East China scheduled for maintenance in March, a 1.5 million ton PTA unit scheduled for maintenance in May, and a 2 million ton PTA unit in South China scheduled for shutdown and maintenance in April.

On the cost side, the unexpected increase in US refined oil inventories in the crude oil market indicates that the expectation of weak demand will not change, coupled with the pressure on oil prices brought by the Ukraine Russia peace agreement. As of February 26th, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $68.62 per barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was $72.07 per barrel. Further attention needs to be paid to tariff policies, OPEC+production plans, etc., as the oil market is likely to continue to fluctuate widely.

On the one hand, the PX market is affected by fluctuations in crude oil prices, and on the other hand, from the perspective of supply and demand fundamentals, there is a concentrated maintenance plan for PX facilities in Asia in the second quarter, and some short process facilities may continue to operate with reduced production. Due to the pressure of processing space, there is a possibility of expanding the maintenance scale of PTA on the demand side, and the prospects for the supply and demand pattern are not optimistic. However, the expected increase in demand for oil blending may have a temporary boost effect on the PX market. The expectation of reduced supply and demand pressure drives market confidence to rebound, and prices are expected to run stronger.

On the demand side, downstream polyester production and sales recovery did not meet expectations, and there were not many new orders in the terminal textile industry. The finished inventory of various polyester products continued to rise, which suppressed the increase in polyester production and negatively affected the market mentality. As of the end of February, the operating rate of the polyester industry was 84%. The slow issuance of new orders for domestic and foreign trade, coupled with difficulties in negotiating new orders, has led to a cautious attitude towards the recovery of demand in March, which has dampened market confidence.

Business analysts believe that with mixed long and short news in the oil market, prices will experience wide fluctuations and adjustments. As the downstream polyester industry gradually enters the traditional peak demand season, production may further increase, and the demand side may improve or drive PTA prices up.

According to the analysis of the Business Society’s market monitoring system, on February 27th, the reference price for the domestic market of silicon metal # 441 was 11210 yuan/ton, which was basically the same as February 1st (market price of silicon metal # 441 was 11690 yuan/ton). Compared with January 1st (market price of silicon metal # 441 was 11690 yuan/ton), the price decreased by 480 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.11%.

From the market monitoring system of Shengyi Society, it can be seen that since February, the domestic spot market for silicon metal # 441 has shown an overall trend of large stability and small decline. From the beginning of the month to the middle of the month, the spot market for silicon metal has been operating steadily, with little change within the market and a relatively stable market performance. At the end of the month, the market prices of some grades in the spot market of silicon metal loosened and declined, including silicon metal # 553 and 552 in East China, # 553 in Tianjin, and # 441 in Shanghai. As of February 26th and 21st, the reference price for metal silicon 441 # in East China is around 11100~11300 yuan/ton, in Kunming it is around 11300~11500 yuan/ton, in Huangpu Port it is around 11100~11300 yuan/ton, in Tianjin it is around 11000~11100 yuan/ton, and in Shanghai it is around 11400~11700 yuan/ton, with a price reduction of 50 yuan/ton.

analysis of influencing factors

In terms of construction: Currently, the operating rate of metal silicon in Xinjiang is around 6 floors, and it is expected that a small number of new furnaces will be added in the short term, but the overall growth rate is limited. The operating rate of metallic silicon in the northwest region remains stable at around 8 layers. Some enterprises in Yunnan have maintenance plans, and the operating rate of metal silicon has narrowly declined, with an operating rate of around 2 floors.

In terms of supply and demand: Currently, both the supply and demand sides of silicon metal are still weak, and there is overall shipping pressure on the supply side, resulting in some loosening of market prices. The recovery of downstream demand is average, with poor purchasing sentiment and demand mainly focused on essential purchases. The overall transmission of supply and demand is weak.

Market analysis in the future

At present, the trading atmosphere in the metal silicon market is relatively light, and the supply-demand game is showing some signs. The metal silicon data analyst of Shengyi Society predicts that in the short term, the domestic metal silicon spot market will mainly adjust and operate weakly. Specific changes in supply and demand news need to be paid more attention to. The positive guidance of the market situation also requires the two-way boosting effect of both supply and demand sides.

1、 Trend analysis

According to monitoring data from Shengyi Society, copper prices first rose and then fluctuated at a high level in February. As of the end of the month, the copper price at the beginning of the month was 75233.33 yuan/ton. At the end of the month, the copper price rose to 76960 yuan/ton, with an overall increase of 2.3% and a year-on-year increase of 10.97%.

According to the Business Society’s current chart, in early February, copper spot prices were mostly higher than futures prices, and the main prices were higher than spot prices in mid to late February. The main contract is the expected price two months later, and it is expected that the price will rise in the future.

According to LME inventory, LME copper inventory first fell and then rose in February. As of the end of the month, LME copper inventory was 267225 tons, up 4.74% from the beginning of the month.

Macroscopically, the January Federal Reserve interest rate meeting announced that the target range for the federal funds rate would remain unchanged at 4.25% to 4.5%, in line with market expectations.

On February 1st Eastern Time, the Trump administration announced a 10% tariff on imported goods from China. On February 10th local time, US President Trump signed an executive order announcing a 25% tariff on all steel and aluminum imports to the United States, stating that there are “no exceptions or exemptions” to the relevant requirements. In addition, in mid February, Trump announced that he would impose equivalent tariffs on US trading partners, but did not specify when the tariffs would be imposed.

On February 1st Eastern Time, the Trump administration announced a 10% tariff on imported goods from China. On February 10th local time, US President Trump signed an executive order announcing a 25% tariff on all steel and aluminum imports to the United States, stating that there are “no exceptions or exemptions” to the relevant requirements. In addition, in mid February, Trump announced that he would impose equivalent tariffs on US trading partners, but did not specify when the tariffs would be imposed.

On the supply side, the overall operation of overseas mines in February was stable, and there were no significant supply disruptions. The processing fee for imported copper concentrate has been in the negative range for a consecutive month, and the decline in TC has further expanded, indicating a tight supply of copper concentrate. It is expected that three smelters in China will have maintenance plans in March, which will expand the maintenance efforts compared to February.

Downstream: After the Chinese New Year holiday, cable companies have gradually resumed work and production, and the operating rate of copper cable companies has rebounded.

In January 2025, the production of household air conditioners in China decreased by 4.2% year-on-year to 16.672 million units, while the total sales increased by 8.7% year-on-year to 17.734 million units; During the same period, the export volume of household air conditioners increased by 17.0% year-on-year to 10.521 million units, becoming the main driving force for market growth.

According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, automobile production in January decreased by 2.2% year-on-year to 2.45 million vehicles; During the same period, the production of new energy vehicles increased by 29% year-on-year to 1.015 million units.

According to the annual price comparison chart of Shengyi Society, in the past five years, copper prices have mostly risen in February.

In summary, the overall supply of ore remains tight. In terms of demand, with the traditional peak season approaching, the air conditioning industry is the most active, and the cable and automotive industries will see a seasonal rebound in demand in March. However, against the backdrop of a volatile macro environment, the Trump administration is planning to impose tariffs on aluminum and copper, which poses obstacles to economic growth and demand, coupled with the continued accumulation of copper inventories. It is expected that copper prices will experience strong fluctuations in March.

1、 Market performance

Price increase: With the rise in raw material costs, the market price of melamine has also increased. There are differences in the prices of melamine in different regions, brands, and concentrations, but the overall trend is stable with an upward trend. As of February 24th, the benchmark price of melamine in Shengyi Society was 6237.50 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.12% compared to the beginning of this month (6230.00 yuan/ton).

Despite the increase in costs, the market price of melamine has not experienced significant fluctuations. This may be due to the relatively stable market demand and the competitive landscape among enterprises, which makes it difficult for prices to rise significantly unilaterally.

At the same time, some enterprises have reduced costs by optimizing production processes and improving production efficiency, thereby offsetting to some extent the impact of rising raw material prices.

2、 Influence of raw materials

The main raw material for the production of melamine is urea, and the rise in urea prices directly leads to an increase in the production cost of melamine. On February 24th, the benchmark price of urea in Shengyi Society was 1843.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 5.82% compared to the beginning of this month (1741.67 yuan/ton).

The prices of these raw materials are influenced by various factors such as international market supply and demand, transportation costs, and exchange rate fluctuations, resulting in significant uncertainty in their prices. When raw material prices rise, the production cost of melamine increases accordingly. In order to maintain profit levels, manufacturers often increase the selling price of melamine. Therefore, the significant increase in raw material prices is one of the important reasons for the stable and upward trend of the melamine market.

4、 Future prospects

1. Cost factors will continue to affect:

Factors such as raw material prices, production energy consumption, and environmental costs will continue to have an impact on the melamine market. Enterprises need to closely monitor changes in these cost factors in order to adjust production plans and sales strategies in a timely manner.

2. Downstream demand is expected to grow:

With the recovery of the economy and the recovery of downstream industries, the demand for melamine is expected to show an increasing trend. This will provide support for market prices and drive the industry towards a healthier and more sustainable direction.

3. International cooperation and export opportunities:

In the context of globalization, domestic melamine enterprises should actively seek international cooperation opportunities, expand overseas markets, and increase export volume. This can not only alleviate the supply and demand pressure in the domestic market, but also enhance the international visibility and brand influence of the enterprise.

In summary, the characteristic of a stable and wait-and-see approach in the melamine market under increased costs is the result of multiple factors working together. Enterprises need to closely monitor market dynamics and policy changes in order to adjust production plans and sales strategies in a timely manner, and seize opportunities in fierce market competition.