1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the average market price of 55% powdered ammonium phosphate in China was 3120 yuan/ton on March 1st, and 3136 yuan/ton on March 7th. This week, the market price of ammonium phosphate increased by 0.53%.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the average market price of 64% diammonium phosphate in China was 3963 yuan/ton on March 1st. On March 7th, the average market price of 64% diammonium phosphate in China was 3966 yuan/ton. This week, the market price of diammonium phosphate increased by 0.08%.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the market for ammonium phosphate has risen, with manufacturers slightly raising their prices. The price of raw material phosphate ore has increased, leading to increased cost support. At present, the supply of ammonium phosphate is relatively low, and the market supply is tight. Downstream procurement is based on demand, and actual transactions are mainly negotiated. As of March 7th, the market price of 55 powder ammonium in Hubei region is around 3050-3100 yuan/ton, and the factory price of 55 powder ammonium in Henan region is around 3100-3200 yuan/ton, with actual negotiations being the main focus. The outbound price of 64% diammonium in Shandong region is around 3950-4050 yuan/ton, and the outbound price of 57% diammonium is around 3550-3650 yuan/ton. The actual transaction is negotiable.

In terms of raw material sulfur. This week, domestic sulfur prices first rose and then fell, and sulfur plants were operating normally with sufficient market supply. As of March 7th, the reference price for sulfur in East China is around 1020 yuan/ton.

In terms of raw material phosphate ore. This week, some mining companies in certain regions in China have raised prices in the mid to high end grade phosphate ore market narrowly, driving the overall focus of negotiations in the phosphate ore market upwards. As of March 7th, the domestic market price for 30 grade phosphate ore is around 1000-1100 yuan/ton.

3、 Future Market Forecast

According to analysts from Business Society, the current market situation for ammonium phosphate is generally stable with minor fluctuations. The spring plowing fertilizer season is approaching, and the demand side needs to be released. Recently, with the support of costs and supply side, it is expected that the short-term ammonium phosphate market will remain stable and improve.

According to the analysis system of the commodity market of Shengyishe, as of March 6th, the average price of high-quality rubber grade white carbon black in China was 5800 yuan/ton. Today, the white carbon black market is mainly weak, with a price drop of 3.33% compared to the previous day, a decrease of about 200 yuan/ton. Currently, the mainstream market price is around 6000 yuan/ton, and manufacturers are making concessions and taking orders, putting pressure on the operation.

On March 6th, the price of domestic rubber grade white carbon black showed a downward trend, with a decrease of 3.33% compared to the previous day, a decrease of about 200 yuan/ton. The upstream raw materials hydrochloric acid and sulfuric acid showed a stable, moderate, and weak trend, and white carbon black lacked favorable support in terms of cost. Currently, downstream demand is weak, and the purchasing atmosphere is average. The overall inventory of white carbon black is high, and consumption is slow. Downstream manufacturers mainly purchase according to demand.

White carbon black commodity index: On March 6th, the white carbon black commodity index was 130.63, a decrease of 4.51 points from yesterday, a decrease of 15.64% from the highest point in the cycle of 154.84 points (2021-12-06), and an increase of 46.10% from the lowest point of 89.41 points on October 7th, 2016. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-09-01 present).

Business Society’s white carbon black analyst believes that it is expected that the white carbon black market will operate steadily, moderately, and weakly in the short term, with insufficient momentum for price increases.

Weak consolidation of plasticizer DOTP

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of March 5th, the price of DOTP was 11850 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.42% compared to February 29th when the price of DOTP was 11900 yuan/ton; Compared to February 16th, the price of DOTP decreased by 0.63% at 11925 yuan/ton; Compared to February 1st, the price of DOTP decreased by 0.63% to 11925 yuan/ton. The prices of raw materials such as isooctanol and phthalic anhydride are weakly consolidating, with insufficient cost support; After the holiday, plasticizer manufacturers resumed production, and the supply of DOTP increased. Downstream production resumed slowly, and the demand for plasticizers did not recover well. In February, DOTP prices weakened and stabilized.

Weak consolidation of isooctanol prices

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of February 29th, the quotation for isooctanol was 12437.50 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.71% compared to the quotation of 12350 yuan/ton on February 16th; Compared to February 1st, the price of 12375 yuan/ton has increased by 0.51%; On March 5th, the price of isooctanol was 12337.50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.80% from February 29th and 0.30% from February 1st. During the Spring Festival, the production of isooctanol was at a low level, but after the holiday, it slowly recovered. The supply of isooctanol increased, but the demand for isooctanol did not recover well. In February, the price of isooctanol weakened and stabilized, while after the holiday, the raw material propylene fluctuated and rose, increasing cost support. In March, the price of isooctanol fluctuated and stabilized.

The price of phthalic anhydride first rises and then falls

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of February 29th, the price of phthalic anhydride was 7687.50 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.82% compared to the price of 7625 yuan/ton on February 16th, and an increase of 0.82% compared to the price of 7625 yuan/ton on February 1st; On March 5th, the price of phthalic anhydride was 7587.50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.30% from February 29th and 0.49% from February 1st. During the Spring Festival, some facilities continued to shut down, and after the holiday, the domestic production rate of phthalic anhydride was around 60%. During the Spring Festival, inventory consumption on site was fast, and prices of phthalic anhydride manufacturers increased. With the resumption of production by phthalic anhydride manufacturers, the supply of phthalic anhydride increased, and demand was poor. As a result, the price of phthalic anhydride fell in March.

PVC prices fluctuate and rise

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of March 5th, the PVC quotation was 5629 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.59% compared to the PVC quotation of 5596 yuan/ton on February 29th; Compared to February 17th, the price of PVC increased by 1.13% to 5566 yuan/ton; Compared to February 1st, the price of PVC increased by 0.99% to 5574 yuan/ton. Before the holiday, PVC demand was weak, PVC prices fluctuated and fell, downstream rigid demand procurement, downstream manufacturers began to work after the holiday, PVC prices fluctuated and rose after the holiday, and demand for plasticizers slowly rebounded.

Future expectations

Business Society plasticizer product data analysts believe that the price of raw material isooctanol is weak and consolidating, and the cost support for plasticizer DOTP is insufficient; After the holiday, the PVC market rebounded slowly, with insufficient demand for plasticizers and poor support for the increase in plasticizers. In the future, the cost support for plasticizers is insufficient, and downstream demand is slowly recovering. It is expected that DOTP prices will fluctuate and consolidate in the future.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of March 4th, the average price of melamine enterprises was 7450.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.33% compared to last Tuesday (February 27th).

Cost side: According to the analysis system chart of the commodity market in Shengyishe, the reference price of urea on March 1st was 2520.00, an increase of 3.63% compared to February 1st (2431.67). On March 4th, the comprehensive price of urea in Shandong was 2515 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.20% compared to yesterday. The cost side has limited support from the melamine market.

Supply and demand side: Currently, the melamine industry is operating at a high level, with sufficient market supply. Although downstream operations are gradually underway, demand release is slow, and inquiries and purchases are mainly in demand. The atmosphere for new orders in the market is light, and manufacturers are gradually under pressure on the supply side as early orders are executed. Enterprises are offering discounts and receiving orders, resulting in a decline in the price center of melamine.

The melamine analyst from Business Society believes that the current cost support is average, and the supply-demand contradiction in the market is evident, with insufficient positive support. It is expected that in the short term, the melamine market may experience weak consolidation and operation, and more attention should still be paid to market news guidance.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the price of cryolite slightly decreased in February. On February 29th, the average market price in Henan Province was 7600 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan/ton compared to the initial price of 7625 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.33%.

In February, the domestic ice crystal market slightly decreased, and the main ice crystal enterprises remained stable with little movement. In February, raw material prices remained low, which weakened support for the cryolite market. Downstream buyers followed up on demand, and the market trading atmosphere was weak. However, due to difficulties in operating fluorite mines, spot prices continued to be tight, and the overall price remained at a high level in the fluorite industry. There is still pressure on the cost of cryolite, with most cryolite manufacturers maintaining stable prices. Some companies are under pressure to ship, and in order to promote inventory scheduling, cryolite prices have slightly decreased.

The upstream fluorite market remained stable in February, with slight fluctuations in price. As of February 29th, the average price of fluorite was 3350.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.19% compared to the beginning of the month price of 3343.75 yuan/ton. The game situation in the domestic fluorite industry still exists, and the operating rate of enterprises remains low. In addition, fluorite mining enterprises are facing increasingly strict safety and environmental requirements, making it more difficult to operate fluorite mines. Downstream procurement follows up on demand, and actual procurement is limited. The fluorite price market is on a wait-and-see basis.

Market forecast: Ice crystal raw material extraction is difficult, fluorite supply is tight, and there is still pressure on the cost of ice crystal. The price of ice crystal on the market is mainly strong, and there is resistance and bearish sentiment towards high prices in the downstream. The downward momentum of ice crystal prices is significant, and the market mentality is cautious. It is expected that the ice crystal market will be sorted out in March, and specific attention will be paid to changes in cost prices and downstream follow-up.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the coal tar market in Shanxi Province was temporarily stable at the beginning of the month in February 2024, with a significant increase after the holiday. The price at the beginning of the month was 4360 yuan/ton, and the price at the end of the month was 4730 yuan/ton, with a monthly increase of 8.49%.

From the monthly K-bar chart of coal tar, it can be seen that after entering 2023, the coal tar market has experienced more decline and less increase, with significant increases and decreases from January to May, and relatively small fluctuations in June and July. On a monthly basis, the market saw a broad decline of 19.37% in January, followed by a brief 13% rebound in February. In March, prices fell sharply again by 15.2%, and in April, the decline continued to expand to 36.91%. In May, the market rebounded significantly by 32%. The market performance in June and July was relatively stable, but after entering August, the market fluctuated greatly, with overall gains and losses. The market maintained a narrow range of fluctuations from September to October, with a broad decline in November.

Note: The K-bar chart of commodity prices uses the concept of price trend candlestick to reflect weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations.

On February 29th, the coal tar (high-temperature) commodity index was 163.10, an increase of 10.34 points from yesterday, a decrease of 29.54% from the highest point in the cycle of 231.47 points (2022-11-09), and an increase of 245.92% from the lowest point of 47.15 points on December 6th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-09-01 present).

Most coking enterprises conducted the final round of auctions before and after January 30th, and most companies signed contracts for three weeks. Therefore, the coal tar market maintained a temporary stable operation in mid to early February, until the latest round of auctions after the year began around the 20th in various regions. With tight supply and downstream replenishment demand boosting, auction prices rose. At the end of the month auction, boosted by the dual benefits of supply and demand, the price at the end of the month has significantly increased again, with an adjustment range of 100-400 yuan/ton.

From 2022 to present, we can see from the operating rate curve of independent coking enterprises in China that after entering 24 years, the operating rate of coking enterprises has significantly declined. After the holiday, the fourth round of increase in prices of coking enterprises has quickly landed, and coking enterprises have generally suffered losses. There has been a significant increase in active production restriction enterprises, and the comprehensive operating rate has slid to below 70%. The supply of coal tar is tight, and the supply side is favorable. Moreover, due to the impact of losses on coking enterprises recently, it is difficult for them to increase their operating rates in the short term, and the tight supply situation in the tar market will continue for a period of time.

From the price table of the deep processing industry we monitored in February, it can be seen that the overall performance of the deep processing market has significantly improved since February, with prices of related commodities rising, especially the prices of major commodities such as carbon black and coal tar pitch, which have significantly increased, driving the market to heat up. Downstream enterprises also generally have a demand for replenishment after the holiday, actively entering the market for inquiries and procurement. With the boost of replenishment demand, the demand side will continue to be positive for a period of time.

Overall, the tight supply pattern in the coal tar market will continue for a period of time, with strong support from the demand side under the influence of two important commodities, carbon black and coal tar pitch. Driven by the dual benefits of supply and demand, it is expected that the coal tar market will continue to maintain a strong performance in the near future.

The domestic acetone market saw a slight increase in February, which coincided with the Spring Festival holiday. The increase was mainly supported by the raw material pure benzene. According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the daily price of the national acetone market was 7190 yuan/ton on February 1st, and it rose to 7330 yuan/ton on February 28th, an increase of 1.95%.

The acetone quotations in major mainstream markets across the country in February are as follows:

Region/ Price on February 28th/ Monthly increase

East China region/ 7150./200

Shandong region/ 7450.50

Yanshan region/ 7450./100

South China region/ 7300./200

The market operated steadily in early February. In the first ten days, it was the preparation period before the Spring Festival, but as February approaches the end of the preparation period, the trading atmosphere in the market has slowed down, and the market is operating steadily. During this period, phenolic ketone enterprises reduced their production burden. According to statistics, in February, four sets of maintenance equipment were installed, with a total production capacity of 600000 tons, resulting in a monthly production loss of nearly 30000 tons. his

Supported by the cost side, it quickly surged and entered an adjustment period in the middle and late stages. Returning after the holiday, affected by the strong upward trend of raw material pure benzene before and after the holiday, the phenolic ketone factory actively raised its listing price in a state of severe losses, which boosted market sentiment. Traders reported a rapid increase in prices. After the holiday, the low inventory of terminal factories coincided with demand plans, and the trading atmosphere on the market was great. However, the good times did not last long. With the replenishment of imported goods, the factory actively increased its operating rate. With sufficient supply, After the demand side followed up, the demand decreased and the market entered a period of volatile adjustment at the end of the month.

From a cost perspective, the domestic pure benzene market rose first and then fell in February. On February 1st, the pure benzene market was quoted at 7967 yuan/ton, and on February 28th, it was quoted at 8567 yuan/ton, with a monthly increase of 7.53%. Prior to the holiday, international crude oil futures rose, driving the upward trend of pure benzene, which provided strong support for downstream phenolic ketone products.

From a downstream perspective, the overall domestic MIBK market remained stable until the end of the month, with a strong upward trend. On February 1st, the market reported 13400 yuan/ton, and on February 28th, the market reported 13800 yuan/ton; In February, downstream isopropanol increased from 8170 yuan/ton to 8420 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.06%; In February, bisphenol A showed an overall upward trend due to the upstream phenol’s upward trend.

From the perspective of Business Society, there is still a slight upward trend in the acetone market in March. Firstly, there are still maintenance plans for the phenol ketone units of Jiangsu Ruiheng and Jilin Petrochemical in China, with an estimated import volume of 25000 tons, which is the same as the import volume in February. Secondly, the downstream MIBK and MMA products have been affected by the increase in market demand, resulting in high operating rates. Products such as bisphenol A and isopropanol have been operating steadily, with little overall change. Other downstream products have slightly improved after the holiday, and overall, the supply and demand side is relatively stable. It is expected to slightly increase in March

Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the sulfur price trend in East China this week first rose and then fell. On February 25th, the sulfur price was 1026.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.32% compared to February 19th’s sulfur price of 1030.00 yuan/ton, and an increase of 10.00% from the beginning of the month.

This week’s sulfur market is running smoothly. After the holiday, downstream construction increased, and the market trading atmosphere was positive. Refinery shipments were smooth. At the beginning of the week, sulfur prices were raised, but the benefits were limited. The market activity atmosphere weakened, and downstream and traders became more wait-and-see. Some refineries actively discharged inventory, and sulfur prices were adjusted and lowered. In the later period, their mentality remained stable, and the market situation remained stable. As of the 23rd, the mainstream price of solid sulfur in refineries in Shandong region is around 990-1070 yuan/ton; The mainstream price of liquid sulfur is between 990-1020 yuan/ton.

Downstream market trends in the industrial chain

The downstream sulfuric acid market is operating steadily, with an average domestic sulfuric acid price of 203.75 yuan/ton on February 25th, which is unchanged from the price of 203.75 yuan/ton on February 19th. The production of on-site enterprises is stable, and the market supply continues to be sufficient. Downstream demand gradually recovers to rationality after a slight increase after the holiday, and stocking is mainly based on demand. Sour acid enterprises can still ship, and manufacturers have a wait-and-see attitude. The sulfuric acid market operates steadily.

The downstream ammonium phosphate market is operating weakly and steadily. On February 25th, the average market price of 55% powdered ammonium phosphate was 3116.67 yuan/ton, which is unchanged from the price of 3116.67 yuan/ton on February 19th. After the holiday, the market for ammonium phosphate remained stable, with downstream procurement mainly based on demand, limited follow-up on new orders, and no significant changes in manufacturer quotations. The market price for ammonium phosphate remained stable.

Future Market Forecast

Business Society sulfur analysts believe that the sulfur market has sufficient supply, while the trading atmosphere in the terminal market is weak. The market mentality is mainly cautious and wait-and-see. Downstream support for sulfur is limited, and sulfur enterprises follow the market with small fluctuations in quotes. It is expected that the sulfur market will consolidate in the short term, and specific attention will be paid to downstream follow-up.

1、 Price trend

According to statistics from Business Society, as of February 20th, the market price of hexafluoropropylene is around 35500-36500 yuan/ton. Some large factories have lowered their prices by 200 yuan/ton.

2、 Price influencing factors:

This Saturday, the overall market price of fluoropropylene remained weak and stable. After the Spring Festival, the market recovery is relatively slow, and the raw material side maintains the pre holiday quotation, while downstream purchases remain in demand.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Business Society’s hexafluoropropylene analyst believes that the recovery period of the market industry chain is slow, and the hexafluoropropylene market may maintain weak and stable operation in the short term.

After the holiday, zinc prices fluctuated slightly and fell

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of February 19th, the zinc price was 20268 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.35% compared to the zinc price of 20546 yuan/ton on February 9th before the holiday; Compared to February 1st, the price of zinc decreased by 3.06% to 20908 yuan/ton. During the Spring Festival, zinc ingot inventories accumulated, and the demand for zinc remained weak, causing zinc prices to fluctuate and fall.

London LME zinc ingot inventory increase

Time/ Inventory/ Increase or decrease/ Changes

February 8th/ 216675/ 10225/4.95%

February 9th/ 227225./10550./4.87%

February 12th/ 238275./11050./4.86%

February 13th/ 246400./8125./3.41%

February 14th/ 254825./8425./3.42%

February 15th/ 259825/ 5000./1.96%

February 16th/ 264825./5000./1.92%

During the Spring Festival, the LME zinc ingot inventory in the London futures market continued to accumulate. As of February 16, the LME zinc ingot inventory was 264825 tons, an increase from the inventory of 227225 tons on February 9 before the holiday. During the Spring Festival, overseas demand was weak, and the zinc ingot inventory in the London futures market increased.

Weak demand remains

After the Spring Festival holiday, downstream enterprises slowly resumed work, but some downstream customers still have holidays and have not resumed work. In addition, customers are stocking up before the holiday, and zinc ingot inventory is high. The demand for zinc ingot replenishment after the holiday is poor, and the demand for zinc in the market remains weak.

Future Market Forecast

According to data analysts from Business Society, the high inventory of zinc ingots has accumulated, coupled with the weak demand in the zinc market after the holiday, the support for the rise in zinc prices is insufficient. In the future, there is sufficient supply of zinc in the market, and with the low season of the zinc market remaining, it is expected that zinc prices will fluctuate and fall at a low level.