This week (September 11th to September 17th), the market for dichloromethane significantly increased. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of September 17th, the average price of dichloromethane bulk water in Shandong Province was 2945 yuan/ton, an increase of 8.47% from Monday’s 2715 yuan/ton. The high price of raw material methanol and the significant increase in liquid chlorine prices have led to a significant rebound in the cost center of dichloromethane; The domestic production of methane chloride is around 75%, and the inventory of enterprises is at a medium to low level. Dichloromethane has significantly increased, and as of September 17th, the factory price of mainstream dichloromethane bulk water in Shandong region is around 2900-3100 yuan/ton.

This week (September 11th to September 17th), the domestic methane chloride production started normally, with an overall production rate of around 75%.

This week (September 11th to September 17th), the price of raw material methanol was operating at a high level, and the price of liquid chlorine rose significantly again, with a significant increase in the cost center of dichloromethane. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of September 17th, the spot price of methanol was 2535 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.00% from Monday’s 2510 yuan/ton. As of September 17th, the acceptance price of liquid chlorine tank trucks in Shandong Province has significantly increased from Monday’s 300 yuan/ton at 700 yuan/ton, supporting the cost of dichloromethane.

The domestic production of methane chloride is around 75%, and the inventory of enterprises remains at a medium to low level, which supports the price of dichloromethane; At present, the demand for refrigerants is limited, and most downstream refrigerant manufacturers are still watching the market. The overall market trading is flat, and as the value and profit of refrigerants decrease, refrigerants have a resistance attitude towards high priced dichloromethane, and only maintain a certain level of just needed support for dichloromethane.

Future Market Forecast: According to the methane chloride data of Business Society, there is not much pressure on the supply side of dichloromethane, coupled with significant cost support. Overall, it is expected that the dichloromethane market will consolidate at a high level in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the average market price of 55% powdered ammonium phosphate in China on September 8th was 3116 yuan/ton. On September 14th, the average market price of 55% powdered ammonium phosphate in China was 3100 yuan/ton. This week, the market price of monoammonium phosphate decreased by 0.53%.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the average market price of 64% diammonium phosphate in China on September 8th was 3875 yuan/ton. On September 14th, the average market price of 64% diammonium phosphate in China was 3875 yuan/ton. This week, the market price of diammonium phosphate remained stable.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the high price of ammonium phosphate market has been sorted and operated. The price of raw material phosphate rock has increased, the price of raw material sulfur has decreased, and the cost side is mixed. The market price of ammonium phosphate has undergone a narrow adjustment, with fewer new orders in the market and a decrease in downstream procurement enthusiasm. Holders are actively shipping, and the market trading atmosphere has weakened. As of September 14th, the market price of 55 powdered ammonium in Henan region is around 3100 yuan/ton, while the market price of 55 powdered ammonium in Hubei region is around 3050-3100 yuan/ton, with actual negotiations being the main focus. The quotation for 64% ammonium chloride in Shandong region is around 3750-4000 yuan/ton, and the actual transaction is negotiated.

In terms of raw sulfur, the domestic sulfur market has shown a downward trend this week. Downstream demand slows down, market trading atmosphere weakens, market mentality is poor, and refinery shipments are not smooth. As of September 14th, the reference average price of sulfur in East China is 1090 yuan/ton.

In terms of raw material phosphorus ore, the domestic mid to high-end grade phosphorus ore market has seen an overall upward trend this week. The downstream demand for domestic phosphate ore is gradually recovering, and with demand boosting, the phosphate ore industry has a good mentality. The supply of mid to high-end grade ore in phosphate rock yards is tight, and spot circulation is tight. With the support of both supply and demand sides, the focus of the phosphate ore market has been constantly moving upwards in recent days.

3、 Future Market Forecast

According to analysts from the Business Society’s ammonium phosphate market, the trading atmosphere in the ammonium phosphate market has weakened recently, and prices have been operating at high levels. At present, there is a decrease in new orders in the market and a weakening in demand, with the main focus being on pending orders, but there is still support on the cost side. It is expected that the short-term price of ammonium phosphate will be mainly managed within a narrow range.

According to data monitored by Business Society, as of September 13th, the average price of domestic industrial grade premium cyclohexane was 7066.67 yuan/ton, which is stable compared to the same period last week. The overall market supply and demand are balanced, and shipments are currently slow.

This week, the market price of cyclohexane has been operating in a narrow range, with the mainstream price around 7033.33 yuan/ton. Compared to the same period last week, the price has remained stable, with mainstream manufacturers maintaining a quotation range of around 7000 yuan/ton and a stable operating rate. Downstream demand procurement is the main focus, and the negotiation atmosphere is flat.

Chemical Index: On September 13th, the chemical index stood at 955 points, an increase of 3 points compared to yesterday, a decrease of 31.79% from the cycle’s highest point of 1400 points (2021-10-23), and an increase of 59.70% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1st, 2011 to the present).

Cyclohexane analysts from Business Society believe that in the short term, the stable operation of the cyclohexane market is the main trend, with a narrow range leaning towards strength.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the average market price on September 12th was 4700 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.30% compared to the previous working day of 4500 yuan/ton. Domestic acetic acid manufacturers have low inventory and mainly execute long-term contracts. The market supply is tight, and downstream and traders are actively taking goods. The trading atmosphere on the market is improving, and the focus of acetic acid transactions has shifted upward. The industry has a strong upward trend, with manufacturers in Shandong increasing their daily price by 100 yuan/ton.

Looking at the future market, the downstream market is currently showing good enthusiasm for entering the market, with insufficient market supply and strong supplier support. It is expected that the acetic acid market will continue to operate strongly.

Zinc prices fluctuate and rise this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of September 11th, the zinc price was 21654 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.36% compared to the fluctuating zinc price of 21364 yuan/ton on September 1st. With the arrival of the traditional peak season of gold, silver, and ten, the demand for zinc has rebounded, and the popularity of the zinc market has rebounded. Market confidence has improved and rebounded, and the positive situation of the zinc market has increased. This week, zinc prices have fluctuated and risen.

The import volume of zinc market has surged

According to data from the General Administration of Customs, China’s refined zinc imports in July were 76796.69 tons, a significant increase of 3774.19% year-on-year and 69.42% month on month, marking the highest monthly record since April 2019. In the past 10 years, China has been a net importer of refined zinc, but this situation has changed in 2022. In 2022, the import volume plummeted from 434000 tons in 2021 to 79000 tons, while the export volume increased from 5000 tons to 81000 tons. The structural transformation of the trade model in 2022 is due to weak domestic demand and high spot premiums in Western markets. These factors are mainly affected by the impact of the epidemic and the closure of European smelters, and investors have insufficient confidence in the Chinese market in 2022. In 2023, the import and export of refined zinc experienced another reversal, with a total of only 5000 tons in the first seven months of 2023. In July alone, the import volume reached as high as 76800 tons, and the import volume of refined zinc surged, indicating an improvement in the Chinese market sentiment. Chinese market confidence has regained optimism, and the overall zinc market is positive.

Increase in imports of electrolytic zinc

China is a major producer and consumer of electrolytic zinc, with zinc production capacity and output ranking first in the world for more than 20 consecutive years. For a long time, China’s electrolytic zinc has been mainly exported, while imports have been relatively small. However, in the first half of 2023, the import volume of electrolytic zinc significantly increased, while the export volume actually decreased. According to data from the General Administration of Customs, the total import volume of electrolytic zinc in the first half of 2023 was 98.27 thousand tons, an increase of 100.43% compared to the first half of 2022; The total export volume of electrolytic zinc in the first half of 2023 was 7.58 thousand tons, a decrease of 87.46% compared to the first half of 2022. There has been a significant change in import and export volume in the first half of 2023, mainly due to: on the one hand, the domestic zinc market is expected to rebound, the zinc ingot market in the Shanghai futures market is expected to rebound, the Shanghai London zinc ratio is up, and the import window is open, which is beneficial for imports but not conducive to exports; On the other hand, the demand at home and abroad is poor, and overseas zinc inventory has increased significantly, limiting the export of electrolytic zinc.

Future Market Forecast

According to data analysts from Business Society, the arrival of the traditional peak season of gold, silver, and ten has stimulated demand in the domestic zinc market, and the domestic zinc market is expected to rebound; The international market demand is weak, and China’s zinc market exports are weakening, while imports are increasing. Overall, with the arrival of the traditional peak season, both supply and demand in the zinc market have increased, imports have increased and exports have weakened. The supply of zinc in the market is sufficient, and the social inventory of zinc ingots has shifted from a decline to an increase. There is limited room for zinc prices to rise, and it is expected that zinc prices will consolidate strongly in the future.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, from September 1 to September 8, 2023, the weekly auction price of crude benzene showed a significant increase, with 6788.75 yuan/ton last weekend and 7388.75 yuan/ton this weekend, with a weekly increase of 8.84%.

In terms of crude oil: OPEC+, an oil producing country, is rumored to have extended production cuts. The market expects an additional 1 million barrels of production reduction from Saudi Arabia to continue until December, while Russia’s crude oil production reduction will continue until December. Supply tightening is expected to continue to ferment and boost the oil market; In addition, the weakening of the US dollar has led to a rebound in oil market valuations and the potential impact of storms in the US Gulf on energy supply, which is a positive factor supporting international oil prices. On September 7th, international crude oil futures closed lower. The settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $86.87 per barrel, a decrease of $0.67 or 0.8%. The settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was $89.92 per barrel, a decrease of $0.68 or 0.8%. Long profit taking, coupled with market vigilance against weak demand expectations, has suppressed oil prices.

The factory price of Sinopec pure benzene has been raised three times in this cycle, with a cumulative increase of 600 yuan/ton during the week. Currently, it is priced at 8350 yuan/ton.

The K-bar chart of commodity prices uses the concept of a price trend K-line to reflect weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell investments based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations. The weekly K-bar chart of pure benzene shows that the pure benzene market has seen a positive trend in recent times. After ten consecutive weeks of decline, it has continued to rise for six consecutive weeks, slightly falling for three consecutive weeks, and rising by another 2.01% this week.

From the perspective of the industrial chain, the macro performance of this week was good, with domestic commodity prices rising more or falling less, and the market atmosphere was more active. Crude oil continued to rise during the week, with styrene strengthening on the market. The supply of pure benzene itself was slightly tight, and downstream markets were actively entering the market. Under the influence of multiple positive factors, the pure benzene market has rapidly risen this week, while the hydrogenation benzene market has been significantly affected. The factory price in the main production area has increased to 8400 yuan/ton, with a cumulative increase of 550 yuan/ton during the week.

This week, the pure benzene industry continued to operate strongly, and the hydrogenation benzene market followed the trend of growth. Driven by the industrial chain, the auction price of crude benzene this week has significantly increased, with the Shandong region executing 7450 yuan/ton, with an increase of 650 yuan/ton. In the Shanxi region, 7400-7470 yuan/ton will be implemented, with an increase of 700-750 yuan/ton. In terms of supply, coking enterprises have recently started operating at a relatively high level, with a significant increase in overall operating rates. The supply of crude benzene during the week was relatively loose compared to the previous period. The recent changes in demand have not been significant, but overall demand is still acceptable. Affected by the good expectations of the Golden Nine Silver Ten and pre holiday stocking, market procurement is relatively active. In the future, there are obvious positive factors for the market, but as market prices rise to high levels, there will be further upward resistance. After the weekend crude oil correction, the hydrogenation benzene market will slightly decline. It is expected that the high consolidation trend of the pure benzene industry chain in the future will be the main focus, with a focus on downstream pre holiday stocking plans.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the average market price of chlorinated paraffin 52 in China on September 1st was 5350 yuan/ton. On September 7th, the average market price of chlorinated paraffin 52 in China was 5350 yuan/ton, and the price of chlorinated paraffin 52 remained stable this week.

2、 Market analysis

The market price of chlorinated paraffin remained stable this week. This week, the price of raw material liquid wax has increased, while the price of raw material liquid chlorine has decreased. The cost side is mixed. Downstream on-demand procurement results in light market transactions and a strong wait-and-see atmosphere in the industry. The manufacturer delivers at a stable price and overall delivery performance is average. As of September 7th, the factory quotation for chlorinated paraffin 52 in Anhui region is about 5700 yuan/ton, while the factory quotation for chlorinated paraffin 52 in Shandong region is about 5000-5350 yuan/ton, which is a national standard.

In terms of raw material liquid wax, the price of liquid wax continued to rise this week, with a stronger trend. Liquid wax fluctuated with the crude oil market. In terms of raw material liquid chlorine, the price of liquid chlorine continued to decline this week, leading to a weak market situation and a poor trading atmosphere in the market.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Chlorinated paraffin analysts from Business Society believe that the prices of raw materials have risen and fallen recently, and the neutralization cost is relatively stable. Terminal demand is weak, and market transactions are weak. It is expected that in the short term, the price of chlorinated paraffin will mainly be adjusted and operated in a narrow range.

Since the end of August, the overall commodity market situation has shown an upward trend (see Figure 1). The futures sector, including soda ash, glass, synthetic rubber, and styrene, has experienced a surge in prices. Driven by the expected reduction in international crude oil production, the energy and chemical sector has overall improved. The impact of high oil prices on inflation may increase the expectation of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates. On September 6th, after the news surfaced, the sustainability of current high oil prices and the upward space narrowed. Where will precious metal prices go in the future?

Expected realization of crude oil production reduction

Saudi Arabia and Russia are fulfilling their production reduction commitments. Saudi Arabia’s voluntary production reduction measures of 1 million barrels per day will continue until September (the production reduction plan is evaluated monthly to determine whether to continue), and Russia’s crude oil exports will be reduced by 500000 barrels per day in August, with subsequent reductions of 300000 barrels per day. The OPEC organization maintains its previous production reduction policy of 3.66 million barrels per day, which is constrained by the production reduction of major oil producing countries, and the crude oil supply side continues to tighten. Global refinery profits are at a five-year high. The main risks on the supply side lie in Iran’s expectation of increasing production and the United States considering relaxing sanctions against Venezuela.

At present, the expected reduction in crude oil production has been fulfilled, and the news is positive with early overdraft, which has been reflected in the recent oil price, and the upward space in the later stage has narrowed. Currently, oil prices are in the high price range.

In the early stage, the correlation between precious metals and crude oil trends is strong. After the second half of 2022, precious metal prices have bottomed out and stabilized, and the magnitude of macro factors affecting them has begun to show differentiation. The trend of precious metals and crude oil began to converge in late March, but after mid April, the trend began to diverge again. Mainly due to the increased impact of risk aversion on the rise of precious metal prices. Recently, crude oil prices have rebounded, and precious metal prices have also followed suit.

Comparison of precious metal gold and silver price trends in the past year

In 2022, the rise and fall trends of precious metal gold and silver have converged, but the decline in silver was deeper from April to August, and the recent recovery has been more significant. In December, silver continued its strong trend last month, and gold began to consolidate at high levels. In 2023, precious metal gold and silver have consolidated at high levels, with a slight decline in February. Since March, precious metal prices have started to rise. Silver prices began to decline in May, while gold remained relatively strong. In June, gold prices reached a high level and silver prices began to rise.

Future Market Forecast

At present, the price of precious metals has been fluctuating in the high range after hitting a 10-year high in the early stage. In the early stage, we expected that under the high inflation and high interest rate hikes, the pace of overseas economic recession may lead to a relatively strong sense of risk aversion, which is currently reflected in prices. Some central banks around the world have increased their holdings of gold reserves, which has also provided some support for gold prices.

However, in the near future, it is still necessary to focus on watching the Fed’s interest rate hike expectations. The next two weeks will see the release of US CPI data and the Federal Reserve’s interest rate resolution. Currently, inflation in the United States is still too high, and most officials do not support immediate policy easing. High oil prices have an impact on inflation. If inflation unexpectedly rises, further tightening policies will be supported, which may make the Federal Reserve inclined to raise interest rates. This will suppress the price of precious metals. In the short term, the upward space for precious metal prices has narrowed, and the probability of narrow range fluctuations has increased.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the hydrogen peroxide market continued to rise in early September. On September 5th, the average market price of hydrogen peroxide was 1500 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of over 4%.

Terminal demand improving, hydrogen peroxide market rising

The demand for terminal caprolactam and papermaking industries has increased, and the operating rate of domestic hydrogen peroxide manufacturers is relatively low. The market supply is tightening, and the market is constantly rising. The mainstream quotation has risen to 1500 yuan/ton, an increase of 25% compared to early August. Prediction: Supply is tightening, the peak consumption season is approaching, and the hydrogen peroxide market is still expected to rise in the future.

Business Society Hydrogen Peroxide Analysts believe that there is still room for improvement in the future hydrogen peroxide market due to the increase in terminal rigid demand.

Product name: isobutyraldehyde

Latest price (September 4th): 8933.33 yuan/ton

On September 4th, the domestic market price of isobutyraldehyde significantly increased, with a price increase of 700 yuan/ton or 8.50% compared to September 1st, and a year-on-year increase of 14.04%. The price of raw material propylene has significantly increased, leading to increased cost support. The downstream market for new pentanediol has stabilized at a high level, and downstream customers have a good enthusiasm for purchasing isobutyraldehyde. Duo Zhong Li is good, and the market price of isobutyraldehyde has significantly increased.

In the future, it is expected that the domestic market price of isobutyraldehyde may fluctuate and rise, with consolidation being the main focus. The average market price is around 9200 yuan/ton.