According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the average TDI market price in East China on October 11th was 18900 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.07% compared to the previous working day of 18700 yuan/ton, indicating a strong market performance. After the holiday, the intensive release of TDI factory equipment maintenance news has boosted market sentiment, causing a significant increase in the quoted prices of cargo holders. The market learned that Shanghai Kesichuang has once again closed down due to inventory constraints, and suppliers have a strong intention to support the market. The trade market follows the guidance of the news, and the quoted prices of cargo holders continue to rise.

The downstream side follows up on demand, with strong support from on-site suppliers and a bullish mindset among operators. It is expected that the short-term TDI market will continue to operate strongly, and specific attention will be paid to the downstream follow-up situation.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the domestic PTA market showed a significant decline today (October 9th), with an average market price of 6013 yuan/ton in the East China region, a decrease of 3.22% compared to the previous trading day.

There were many negative news during the National Day holiday, leading to a weakening of PTA prices. Crude oil and PX have plummeted, with significant cost drag. Concerns about interest rate hikes, an increase in bearish inventory from oil producing countries that may increase production in the future, and weak gasoline demand have put pressure on oil prices at high levels. The current market is still relatively abundant in spot goods. In addition, Yisheng Hainan’s 2.5 million ton and Hanbang Petrochemical’s 2.2 million ton new units have been postponed to production in November. The downstream polyester start-up load remains stable at around 85%, and some weaving factories are on vacation, resulting in a slight decrease in start-up load. Domestic and foreign trade orders are also mostly small orders.

Analysts from Business Society believe that with the end of the Asian Games, the polyester production load will rebound to a certain extent, and demand is expected to rebound. It is expected that the short-term PTA price will fluctuate with the raw material end.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, after the 11th National Day holiday, terminal rigid demand has declined, and the hydrogen peroxide market has plummeted by over 30%. On October 8th, the average market price of hydrogen peroxide was 1433 yuan/ton. On October 1st, the average market price of hydrogen peroxide was 2126 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 32.6%.

Negative sentiment suppresses the decline of hydrogen peroxide market

After the Double Festival, the stock market in the terminal printing and papermaking industry has ended, and demand has declined. In addition, the market acceptance of high priced hydrogen peroxide has decreased, resulting in a significant drop in hydrogen peroxide prices. The mainstream quotation for 27.5% hydrogen peroxide in Shandong region dropped to 1500 yuan/ton, while the mainstream quotation for 27.5% hydrogen peroxide in Hebei region dropped to 1300 yuan/ton, and the mainstream quotation for 27.5% hydrogen peroxide in Anhui region dropped to 1500 yuan/ton. The domestic price of 27.5% hydrogen peroxide has decreased by about 500 yuan/ton compared to before the holiday.

Li Bing, an analyst at Business Society Chemical, believes that the bearish situation will be suppressed, and terminal rigid demand will decline. The future market for hydrogen peroxide will still be dominated by a decline.

The price of aluminum fluoride increases after the holiday

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of October 7th, the domestic quotation for aluminum fluoride was 10350 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.97% compared to the price of aluminum fluoride on October 1st, which was 10150 yuan/ton. After the holiday, the prices of raw materials such as fluorite and hydrofluoric acid fluctuated and increased, resulting in higher costs. Aluminum fluoride also rose after the holiday.

Rising prices of raw materials

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of October 7th, the price of fluorite was 3662.50 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.17% compared to the price of fluorite on October 1st, which was 3550 yuan/ton. As of October 7th, the price of hydrofluoric acid was 11383.33 yuan/ton, an increase of 7.56% compared to the price of hydrofluoric acid on October 1st, which was 10583.33 yuan/ton. After the holiday, the resources of fluorite mines remain tight, with low inventory of fluorite merchants and tight supply, resulting in an increase in fluorite prices; Downstream refrigerant prices have increased, demand has increased, coupled with rising raw material prices, leading to an increase in the price of hydrofluoric acid. The prices of raw materials such as fluorite and hydrofluoric acid have increased, resulting in rising costs. The support for the future price increase of aluminum fluoride has increased.

Market Overview and Forecast

Analysts from the fluoride aluminum industry at the Business Society believe that after the holiday, the prices of hydrofluoric acid and fluorite fluctuate and rise, and the cost support for fluoride aluminum increases. In the future, rising costs are good for boosting, while the rise of aluminum fluoride is more supportive. It is expected that the price of aluminum fluoride will fluctuate and rise in the future.

Price trend

In September, the domestic PA6 market saw an increase, with various spot prices fluctuating and rising. According to data monitoring from Business News Agency, as of September 30th, the mixed benchmark price of PA6 in China was 14825 yuan/ton, a decrease of+5.14% compared to the average price level at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

In terms of raw materials:

From the above figure, it can be seen that the market price of caprolactam rose first and then fell in September. In the first half of the month, the raw material pure benzene market strengthened, and cost support was favorable. At the same time, the supply of caprolactam is tight, and the focus of transactions is on the rise. In the latter half of the year, pure benzene turned around and went down, combined with a decrease in downstream demand, resulting in a decline in caprolactam. Overall, the cost side support for PA6 is acceptable within the month.

On the supply side:

Since September, the load of PA6 production enterprises has been generally sideways, with an average operating rate of around 75% in China. The market supply is flat compared to the end of August, and due to the impact of inventory digestion in the first half of the month, the warehousing pressure on domestic enterprises is not significant yet. However, in the latter half of the year, the supply of goods on site has increased, and the support of suppliers for spot goods has weakened.

In terms of demand: Downstream, the load of the weaving and spinning industries fluctuated slightly in September and remained stable, with an average load position of around 65% and 80%, respectively. In the first half of the month, the stock demand was fulfilled, and then the buyer’s acceptance of the increased price decreased, which affected the circulation speed of some sources of goods. Towards the end of the month, downstream enterprises have basically completed their purchases, and the actual trading level has gradually weakened. The market wait-and-see atmosphere has begun to dominate. Overall, the demand side support for PA6 slicing is first strong and then weak.

Future Market Forecast

After the market price of PA6 rose in September, it was sorted out. The price of caprolactam rose first and then fell, and the overall cost support for PA6 is still acceptable. The domestic polymerization plant has stable load and abundant supply. After stocking up and cashing in before the end of the demand period, caution gradually increased, and holiday terminal enterprises and merchants gradually withdrew from the market, resulting in a decrease in market trading. It is expected that the PA6 market will enter a narrow range consolidation market in early October.

Cobalt prices fluctuate and consolidate this week

According to the cobalt market analysis system of the Business Society, as of September 22, the cobalt price was 254600 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.79% compared to September 15, when the cobalt price was 252600 yuan/ton; The cobalt price slightly decreased by 0.16% compared to 255000 yuan/ton on September 10th. The growth of ternary battery loading has slowed down, and demand in the cobalt market has rebounded. This week, cobalt prices have stopped falling and rebounded, but the growth rate of demand in the cobalt market has slowed down. Recently, cobalt prices have fluctuated and consolidated.

Slow down in the increase of ternary battery loading volume

According to data from the China Automotive Power Battery Industry Innovation Alliance, in August, China’s power battery installation volume was 34.9GWh, a year-on-year increase of 25.7% and a month on month increase of 8.2%. The installed capacity of ternary batteries is 10.8GWh, accounting for 31.0% of the total installed capacity, with a year-on-year increase of 2.7% and a month on month increase of 2.3%; The installed capacity of lithium iron phosphate batteries is 24.1GWh, accounting for 69.0% of the total installed capacity, with a year-on-year increase of 39.7% and a month on month increase of 11.0%. The installation volume of ternary batteries in August increased both month on month, but the growth rate significantly slowed down compared to July. The overall performance of the new energy vehicle market, from July to August, is the traditional off-season for new energy vehicle sales. However, under the situation of “100 city linkage+thousands of towns and counties” and some new energy vehicle companies significantly ceding profits, the overall trend of off-season is not weak. The performance of the new energy vehicle market is better than market expectations. September, as the momentum node at the end of the quarter, the performance of the car market in September will still be expected. However, the sale of profits has overdrawn the demand for new energy vehicles in the fourth quarter ahead of schedule, and the growth rate of demand for new energy vehicles in the fourth quarter may not be as expected. Overall, the demand for cobalt in new energy vehicles has increased, but the growth is not as expected, and future growth expectations are poor. The continuous increase in cobalt prices lacks momentum.

Overview and outlook

According to Bai Jiaxin, a data analyst at Business Society, the sales of new energy vehicles are not weak in the off-season, but the growth rate of ternary battery installation has slowed down. The sales of new energy vehicles in the fourth quarter may not be as expected, and the demand growth in the cobalt market has slowed down, with insufficient support for the rise in cobalt prices. Overall, the cobalt market has stable supply and demand growth, but the growth rate is lower than expected. The support for the rise in cobalt prices is still present but the driving force for sustained growth is insufficient. In the future, cobalt prices are expected to fluctuate and consolidate in a narrow range.

The price of plasticizer DBP fluctuated and fell this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of September 21, the DBP price was 10425 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.34% compared to the DBP price of 10675 yuan/ton on September 14. The price of DBP raw material isooctanol fluctuated and fell, while the price of n-butanol first rose and then fell. The cost of plasticizer DBP raw material decreased, and the price of plasticizer DBP fluctuated and fell.

The price of n-butanol rose first and then fell this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of September 21, the price of n-butanol was 9766.67 yuan/ton, which increased and then decreased by 2.01% compared to the price of n-butanol on September 14, which was 9966.67 yuan/ton. Plasticizer enterprises are operating at a low level, and the trading atmosphere in the n-butanol market this week is light. The mentality of n-butanol operators is average, and downstream demand is cautious in purchasing according to quantity. The cost support for plasticizer DBP is weakened.

The market for raw material phthalic anhydride rose first and then fell

According to the market analysis system for phthalic anhydride products of the Business Society, as of September 21, the quotation for neighboring phthalic anhydride was 8812.50 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.86% compared to the price of 8737.50 yuan/ton on September 14; The price of phthalic anhydride decreased by 0.42% compared to 8850 yuan/ton on September 20th. The price of ortho xylene has fluctuated and increased, and the willingness of phthalic anhydride enterprises to stand up has increased. The price of phthalic anhydride has increased, and some phthalic anhydride enterprises have restarted. The supply of phthalic anhydride has increased, and the price of phthalic anhydride has decreased; The demand for plasticizers is cold, and downstream procurement enthusiasm is poor. There is a significant resistance to high priced phthalic anhydride, and this week, phthalic anhydride has stopped rising and falling.

The price of isooctanol has stopped falling and stabilized this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the price of isooctanol on September 21 was 11720 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.93% compared to the price of isooctanol on September 14, which was 12200 yuan/ton. The domestic isooctanol plant has started operating and restarted, resulting in an oversupply of isooctanol and a fluctuating decline in isooctanol prices; This week, the price of propylene fluctuated and increased. Under cost pressure, the space for reducing the price of isooctanol is limited, and the price of isooctanol has stabilized.

Future expectations

Analysts from Business Society’s plasticizer product data believe that the price of isooctanol has stabilized, while the price of n-butanol has first increased and then decreased. The market for phthalic anhydride has stopped rising and fallen, and the cost support for plasticizer DBP has weakened. In the future, there is insufficient demand support for cost reduction, and there is significant downward pressure on DBP prices. It is expected that DBP prices will be weak and consolidate in the future.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, from September 13th to 20th, the domestic ethanol price increased from 6912 yuan/ton to 7075 yuan/ton, with a weekly price increase of 1.28%, a month on month increase of 2.03%, and a year-on-year increase of 2.98%. In some regions, the inventory of manufacturers is relatively low, and the market atmosphere is gradually increasing driven by edible grade ethanol. At the same time, the raw material corn is driving up the domestic ethanol market, which is actively driving up the market.

In terms of cost, as we enter mid September, spring corn from North China and other regions has been listed one after another. New season corn has entered the market sporadically, and the willingness of grain trading entities to leave the market has increased. The wait-and-see attitude of downstream deep processed corn has increased. In addition, with continuous price increases and restocking in the early stage, corn inventory has been effectively replenished, and corn purchase prices have been gradually lowered, driving domestic corn market prices to rise and slightly decline. There are temporary positive factors in the cost of ethanol.

On the supply side, the majority of production enterprises in various regions park their facilities, and the operating rate of normally operating enterprises remains at 30-40%. A small number of enterprises have low inventory, while most enterprises have relatively high inventory. Recently, the continuous rise in gasoline prices has driven up the price of fuel ethanol, causing some production enterprises to have a slight shortage of supply. The impact of ethanol supply is mixed.

On the demand side, the downstream chemical industry just needs to purchase, and the demand for ethyl acetate has been slightly boosted, which significantly supports the price. With the coming of the Double Festival, the stock of Baijiu has increased, and the stock of Baijiu has increased. The short-term demand for ethanol is influenced by favorable factors.

Future market predictions indicate high costs and a supply-demand game. Ethanol analysts at the Business Society predict that the domestic ethanol market may be slightly stronger in the short term.

List of ethylene glycol prices

According to data from Business News Agency, on September 19th, the average price of domestic oil to ethylene glycol was 4303.33 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.03% compared to the beginning of the month. The prices in various regions are as follows:

The price range for spot goods executed by mainstream manufacturers in East China is between 4250 and 4300 yuan/ton; The spot price of ethylene glycol in the South China market is 4250 yuan/ton, while the price range for mainstream manufacturers in Central China is 4100 yuan/ton; The spot price for mainstream manufacturers in North China is 4350 yuan/ton.

The ex factory tax price of coal based polyester grade ethylene glycol is low, and the current price range is between 3680-3790 yuan/ton.

On September 18th, the CIF price of ethylene glycol in China was 496 US dollars/ton; The CIF Southeast Asia price is $499 per ton.

Ethylene glycol fundamentals

Strong cost support

Recently, oil prices, coal prices, ethane prices, and ethylene prices have all shown a strong operating trend. As raw materials for various paths, they have also brought cost support, providing strong positive guidance for the overall price valuation of ethylene glycol.

Port accumulation has slightly eased

In September 2023, the ethylene glycol inventory in the main port of East China was slightly depleted. As of September 18, 2023, the total spot inventory of ethylene glycol in the main port of East China was 1.0165 million tons, which is 1.1448 million tons compared to the total spot inventory of ethylene glycol in the main port of East China on August 31 and 128300 tons removed from the warehouse.

The port inventory is high, and the main inventory of ethylene glycol in East China is still above 1 million tons. However, the pressure on accumulated inventory has eased recently, mainly due to the fact that many imported ethylene glycol goods from the United States have failed quality inspection. In addition, the subsequent arrival volume was to some extent affected by the expected maintenance of overseas devices from September to October, which has weakened the pressure on port supply of goods.

However, the domestic supply is still at a relatively high level, with a relatively large production capacity and a restart of equipment in the early stage. Although there are maintenance expectations in the near future, there are expectations of a slight contraction at a high level in the trend;

Downstream polyester operating rate decreases

Supported by the high start-up rate of polyester in the early stage, ethylene glycol still shows a surplus state despite exceeding the expected downstream start-up rate of polyester; As the Asian Games approaches, the actual operating rates of downstream polyester and textile factories have decreased, and the current polyester load is around 88.9%. The specific change devices are as follows (incomplete statistics):

Several polyester units in Xiaoshan have been shut down, with a total production capacity of 2.58 million tons, all of which are filament or chip production units; The two major factories in Xiaoshan will be shut down for maintenance on the evening of the 17th and are expected to restart on October 8th; In addition, a set of 150000 ton/year polyester bottle chip device in Central China has been shut down due to some reasons, and the restart time is uncertain.

Future market forecast

Ethylene glycol by-products have a large attribute, and in the process of integrated devices, cost considerations are weakened. In the case of high profits from other products, it is difficult to make significant changes in the supply and demand fundamentals. In the early stage, the ethylene glycol market was mainly dominated by cost factors, and in the later stage, it will gradually return to fundamental reality. It is expected that short-term ethylene glycol prices will still fluctuate strongly, but the upward space will narrow.

The domestic acetic acid market is operating strongly, with prices rising broadly. Enterprise inventory remains low, downstream and traders are actively stocking up, the market trading atmosphere is improving, manufacturers’ shipments are smooth, and there is a strong intention to increase prices. Acetic acid prices continue to rise during the week, and the acetic acid market is strong at a high level.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, on September 17th, the average price of acetic acid in East China was 4800 yuan/ton, an increase of 5.49% compared to the price of 4550 yuan/ton on September 11th.

The upstream raw material methanol market has been fluctuating and sorted out. As of September 17, the average price in the domestic market was 2535 yuan/ton, an overall increase of 1.00% compared to the price of 2510 yuan/ton on September 11. The methanol futures market has retreated from a high level, and the sentiment in the spot market has weakened. Traders have been cautious in their operations, slowing down the speed of methanol pickup, increasing inventory of production enterprises, and manufacturers selling at inflated prices. The market is stagnant, and the domestic methanol market is operating in a volatile manner.

The downstream acetic anhydride market has shown a strong upward trend. As of September 17th, the factory price of acetic anhydride was 7402.50 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.33% compared to the price of 7095.00 yuan/ton on July 11th. The upstream acetic acid price continues to rise, the cost of acetic anhydride continues to increase, the operation of acetic anhydride equipment is low, some manufacturers’ equipment is shut down, the supply of acetic anhydride is tight, and the price of acetic anhydride is rising.

In the future market forecast, acetic acid analysts from Business Society believe that the inventory of domestic acetic acid factories is currently low, and downstream procurement is active. As the National Day holiday approaches, downstream inventory demand may continue to be positive, and it is expected that acetic acid will continue to operate at a high level in the future.