Continuing the upward trend of “Gold Nine”, the domestic phosphorus ore market “Silver Ten” continues to rise and operate. After the end of the October National Day holiday, the overall domestic phosphorus ore market continued to approach a high level. On October 26th, the market price of 30 grade phosphorus ore once again broke through the thousand yuan mark, with a reference price of around 1008 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.92% compared to early October. At present, the difference between high and low prices in the phosphate rock field has narrowed, and the overall market performance is still good.

The main influencing factors for the upward trend of phosphate rock market:

On the supply side: Currently, the overall supply of phosphorus ore in China is still tight, with some regions experiencing tight spot inventory of medium to high grade ores and relatively low overall spot circulation on the market. Therefore, the supply side continues to support the overall focus of the phosphorus ore market to move upwards.

In terms of demand: Currently, the downstream demand for phosphate ore is acceptable. Although the opening of terminal winter storage is relatively slow, the downstream demand is still relatively stable, providing some support to the phosphate ore market. Currently, some mining enterprises mainly receive pre orders, and the overall market shipment situation is good.

Prediction and Analysis of the Future Market Trend of Phosphate Rock

At present, the trading atmosphere inside the phosphate ore field is mild, and the supply and demand transmission is relatively smooth. It is expected that the narrow upward trend of the terminal potassium fertilizer and phosphate ammonium market will provide some support to the market from bottom to bottom. The phosphate ore data analyst of the Business Society believes that in the short term, the domestic phosphate ore market will mostly operate in a stable to strong manner, and the specific trend needs to pay more attention to the impact of factors such as demand and downstream shipments.

The center of gravity of aluminum prices moved down in October

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, on October 24, 2023, the average price of domestic aluminum ingots in the East China market was 18930 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 0.37%. Compared to the beginning of the month (October 1), the aluminum price was 19856.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.67%.

In the long term, the current price is in a sideways range after a high decline. Since May, the price has been fluctuating below 19000 yuan/ton, breaking through 19000 yuan/ton at the end of August. In September, aluminum prices first fell and then rose, and in October, the center of gravity of aluminum prices returned to below 19000 yuan/ton.

Overview of Fundamentals

Loose supply

Supply side: Recently, a certain electrolytic aluminum enterprise in Inner Mongolia has added 200000 tons of production capacity and is gradually entering the production cycle. It is expected to reach full production by December. Electrolytic aluminum enterprises in the southwest region are basically resuming production, and we will pay attention to whether the precipitation in the southwest region in November will once again interfere with production. At present, the wave of resuming production has basically ended, and the overall supply is relatively loose.

The demand side rebounded month on month and decreased year-on-year

In terms of demand: Last week, the operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises increased by 1.2 percentage points compared to the week before the holiday to 64.5%, a decrease of 2.7 percentage points compared to the same period last year.

Due to the entry of cables into the industry’s centralized delivery period, the terminal pickup volume has significantly increased, driving a significant increase in operating rates; The operating rates of aluminum strip and aluminum foil plates have slightly increased; The recycled aluminum alloy sector is mainly due to the resumption of normal production and a rebound in operating levels after the holiday, but actual demand has not significantly increased yet. However, only the operating rate of the profile sector has declined, especially the construction profile sector is relatively weak.

Cost escalation

Cost side: The price of raw alumina continues to rise slightly, coupled with the strengthening of coal prices, resulting in an increase in the cost of electrolytic aluminum.

Inventory increased month on month

In terms of social inventory, following the start of destocking in the second half of July, inventory is relatively low. As of October 23rd, the social inventory of mainstream areas of domestic electrolytic aluminum ingots was 630000 tons, with a cumulative inventory of 130000 tons compared to the end of September. Based on year-on-year data, it is close to the 636000 tons in the same period of history after last year’s holiday, and still at a low level in the same period of nearly five years.

LME aluminum inventory: As of October 23, LME aluminum inventory decreased by 2000 tons to 486450 tons compared to the previous trading day.

Future market forecast

Electrolytic aluminum production enterprises mainly maintain stable production and have large operating capacity. Currently, there is a surplus of aluminum ingot inventory after the holiday, and the supply of aluminum ingots is sufficient to suppress aluminum prices. However, the demand in the downstream peak season is partially fulfilled, and the cost support is strong. It is expected that in the short term, the probability of aluminum price fluctuations and sideways operation will increase.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the average market price of chlorinated paraffin 52 in China was 5800 yuan/ton on October 16th. On October 23rd, the average market price of chlorinated paraffin 52 in China was 5866 yuan/ton, and the price of chlorinated paraffin increased by 1.15% this week.

2、 Market analysis

The market price of chlorinated paraffin has increased this week. This week, the price of raw material liquid wax fluctuated and decreased, while the price of raw material liquid chlorine increased. The cost side was mixed. Downstream on-demand procurement, procurement needs are cautious, and market transactions are average. As of October 23rd, the factory quotation for chlorinated paraffin 52 in Anhui region is about 6300 yuan/ton, while the factory quotation for chlorinated paraffin 52 in Shandong region is about 5100-5900 yuan/ton.

In terms of raw material liquid wax, the price of liquid wax fluctuated and decreased this week, and liquid wax fluctuated with the crude oil market. In terms of raw material liquid chlorine, the price of liquid chlorine rose this week and stabilized before falling. The market situation was unstable, with consolidation and operation being the main focus.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Chlorinated paraffin analysts from Business Society believe that recent fluctuations in raw material prices have supported high costs. Downstream demand is weak, market transactions are weak, and terminal demand needs to be released. It is expected that the short-term price of chlorinated paraffin will be slightly adjusted and operated, and it is recommended to pay attention to changes in the raw material market.

According to data monitored by Business Society, as of October 20th, the price of high-quality power type lithium iron phosphate was 67600 yuan/ton, a slight decrease of 0.88% compared to the same period last week. Currently, the mainstream price is around 67000 yuan/ton, mainly for contract customers, and new orders are not accepted.

This week, the stable operation of lithium iron phosphate is the main focus. The price for the same period last week was 68200 yuan/ton, and the current mainstream price is around 67000 yuan/ton. The overall market is stable and weak, with downstream restocking on demand and average demand. Upstream lithium carbonate is stable and weak, and the cost side of lithium iron phosphate is not strong. In the short term, lithium carbonate will maintain its previous trend, with manufacturers only supplying old customers and new customers not taking orders.

Chemical Commodity Index: On October 20th, the chemical index stood at 910 points, a decrease of 4 points from yesterday, a decrease of 35.00% from the cycle’s highest point of 1400 points (2021-10-23), and an increase of 52.17% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8th, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1st, 2011 to the present).

Analysts from Business Society believe that the lithium iron phosphate market will operate steadily and weakly in the short term.

Price: 3700 yuan/ton

Analysis: On October 19th, the domestic liquid ammonia market price increased. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the daily increase in the main production area of Shandong was 2.12%. The main reason is tight supply, which is good for support. The northern region is mainly affected by the Beijing conference, and transportation has been affected to some extent, resulting in a decrease in factory load. The manufacturer’s quotation has been raised multiple times this week, with a cumulative increase of over 200 yuan/ton. The dealer’s offer naturally rose. In addition, the downstream urea market has steadily increased, mainly influenced by the new round of bidding from India and India, with an increase of 100-150 yuan/ton this week. From a terminal perspective, agricultural demand follows up in a timely manner, while industrial demand is mainly supported by demand. However, there are not many new export orders, which may become a limiting factor for the rise of liquid ammonia in the later stage. At present, the mainstream quotation in Shandong region is between 3600-3700 yuan/ton.

Prediction: It is expected that there will be a recovery in the equipment of northern liquid ammonia enterprises in the near future, and the downstream industrial demand is average, and there may be a short-term change in supply and demand. It is expected that liquid ammonia will be difficult to continue driving up the market.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the domestic polyester staple fiber market prices have slightly rebounded recently. As of October 18th, the average price quoted by the 1.4D * 38mm polyester staple fiber factory was 7722 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.39% compared to October 15th.

Due to the macroeconomic and global geopolitical turmoil, the recent international crude oil prices have experienced significant fluctuations. As of October 17th, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $86.66 per barrel, while the settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was $89.90 per barrel.

PTA fluctuates with crude oil prices, but the amplitude is not significant. As of October 18th, the PTA market price in East China was 5867 yuan/ton. There are maintenance and load reduction phenomena in the PTA factory, with Hengli Petrochemical’s 2.2 million ton unit undergoing maintenance for about two weeks on October 7th, and Ineos 1 # 1.1 million ton PTA unit undergoing maintenance from mid October to the end of November. The load of the 2 # 1250000 ton device is between 80-90%. The current PTA industry’s construction has decreased to around 74%.

Downstream yarn factories purchase according to demand, with a cautious purchasing mindset. The yarn factory’s shipments are average, and the operation is relatively stable. At present, the reference price for pure polyester yarn in the Shandong region is 12850 yuan/ton. The profit of the yarn factory is still in a loss state, and the trading atmosphere is average. The new season orders have been placed for production, but it has not yet reached the level of the same period in previous years.

Analysts from Business Society believe that the current polyester staple fiber market is mainly on a wait-and-see basis, with stable costs and no obvious driver of supply and demand. It is difficult for downstream actual demand to improve significantly and has been lukewarm. It is expected that the price of polyester staple fibers may decline in the short term.

1、 Trend analysis

According to the monitoring of nickel prices by the Business Society, on the 17th, the average spot market price of nickel was 152500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.02% compared to the previous trading day. The overnight market’s Lunni range fluctuated, closing at $18575/ton, down $5 or 0.03%, while the Shanghai Nickel 11 contract fell 1570 yuan/ton to $150730 yuan/ton or 1.03%.

From a macro perspective, the Fed’s stance is biased towards doves, leading to a decline in the prices of the US dollar and US bonds. This change will affect metal prices, including nickel prices. The continuous loose supply of pure nickel and weak terminal demand for secondary nickel have to some extent offset the positive impact of the US dollar’s decline, leading to a decline in nickel prices. In terms of supply, due to the continuous loose supply of pure nickel, market inventory continues to accumulate. This gradually returns the price of pure nickel to its cost pricing logic, which is determined based on production costs and market supply and demand. On the other hand, due to the cost inversion of the route for converting nickel iron to electrowinning nickel, the profit from converting nickel sulfate to nickel production has significantly narrowed, which to some extent supports the nickel price.

Overall, the trend of nickel prices is influenced by both macro factors and supply and demand patterns. Despite policy incentives and factors such as tight nickel mines in Indonesia, the long-term downward trend in nickel prices is still difficult to reverse due to issues such as sustained loose supply of pure nickel, weak terminal demand, and continuous inventory accumulation. Nickel is expected to continue to fluctuate widely.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the price of cryolite in Henan region remained stable this week. On October 15th, the average market price in Henan region was 7875 yuan/ton, which is the same as the average price of 7875 yuan/ton on October 9th, with a year-on-year increase of 1.29%.

The cryolite market remains stable at a high level, and manufacturers’ quotations are firm and operating. The supply of upstream products is tight, prices are rising at high levels, and the cost pressure on cryolite is increasing. The market mentality is bullish, but the downstream power is insufficient. There is resistance towards high priced cryolite, and purchasing in the market follows up as needed. The market trading atmosphere is average, and downstream support is weak, which hinders the rise of cryolite. As of October 15th, the factory quotation for cryolite in Shandong region is 7000-8600 yuan/ton; The factory quotation for cryolite in Henan region is between 7200-9000 yuan/ton.

The upstream fluorite market is relatively strong and rising, with an average market price of 3768.75 yuan/ton on October 15th, an increase of 1.34% compared to the price of 3718.75 yuan/ton on October 9th. It is difficult to start upstream raw ore production, fluorite spot is tight, and supply side support is good. The demand side refrigerant market is rising, and demand is driving the price trend of fluorite market to rise.

Future Market Forecast: The upstream price of cryolite is relatively high, with good cost support. The quotation of cryolite enterprises is high and firm, while downstream demand is weak. Market trading is limited, and there is a game between supply and demand on the market, resulting in a stalemate among operators. It is expected that the cryolite market will operate on a wait-and-see basis in the future, with narrow price fluctuations. Specific attention will be paid to changes in manufacturer inventory and downstream acceptance.

The price of plasticizer DBP fluctuated and fell this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of October 13th, the DBP price was 10087.50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.82% from the DBP price of 10275 yuan/ton on October 8th; Compared to the DBP price of 10250 yuan/ton on October 1st, it decreased by 1.25%. This week, the raw material n-butanol fluctuated and fell, the price of phthalic anhydride fluctuated and fell, while the price of isooctanol fluctuated and increased. Cost support weakened, downstream demand was average, and plasticizer DBP enterprises started stable operations. This week, the price of plasticizer DBP fluctuated and fell.

The price of n-butanol fluctuated and fell this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of October 13th, the price of n-butanol was 8850 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.39% compared to the price of 9066.67 yuan/ton on October 8th; The price of n-butanol decreased by 2.39% compared to 9066.67 yuan/ton on October 1st. This week, the factory price of n-butanol has fallen, and n-butanol manufacturers have accumulated inventory. After the holiday, the price of propylene has fluctuated and decreased. n-butanol enterprises have a low acceptance of high priced raw materials, and the cost of n-butanol has decreased. Downstream demand for cautious procurement has increased the pressure on n-butanol prices to decline.

The raw material phthalic anhydride market fluctuated and fell this week

According to the market analysis system for phthalic anhydride products of the Business Society, as of October 13th, the quotation for neighboring phthalic anhydride was 8387.50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.47% compared to the price of 8600 yuan/ton on October 8th. The price of Naifa phthalic anhydride has decreased, the price of ortho benzene has fluctuated and decreased, the cost of phthalic anhydride has decreased, the phthalic anhydride market is operating cautiously, terminal demand remains cold, downstream procurement enthusiasm is poor, and the price of phthalic anhydride has fluctuated and decreased. The cost support for plasticizers has weakened.

Future expectations

Business Society plasticizer product data analysts believe that this week, butanol prices fluctuated and fell, phthalic anhydride prices fluctuated and fell, DBP raw material costs decreased, and DBP downward pressure increased; PVC prices have fluctuated and fallen, with insufficient silver fineness and weak demand for plasticizers. Overall, as costs decrease and demand weakens, the downward pressure on plasticizer DBP increases, and it is expected that DBP prices will fluctuate and fall in the future.

Cobalt prices rebounded and rose after the holiday

According to the cobalt market analysis system of the Business Society, as of October 12th, the cobalt price was 255900 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.35% compared to the cobalt price of 255000 yuan/ton on October 1st. In October, the international cobalt price continued to rise, and the domestic cobalt market was positive. After the holiday, the domestic cobalt price slightly increased.

MB Cobalt Price Rising in October

From the trend chart of MB cobalt price, it can be seen that in September, MB cobalt price stopped falling and rebounded, while in October, cobalt price continued its upward trend in September and slightly increased. The international cobalt market is favorable, which is beneficial for the domestic cobalt market.

Rising sales of new energy vehicles

According to data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, in September 2023, the production and sales of new energy vehicles in China reached 879000 and 904000, respectively, with year-on-year growth of 16.1% and 27.7%, and a market share of 31.6%. From January to September, the production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 6.313 million and 6.278 million, respectively, with year-on-year growth of 33.7% and 37.5%, and a market share of 29.8%. According to data released by the China Passenger Car Association, the domestic passenger car market produced 2.453 million vehicles in September, an increase of 2.3% year-on-year and 8.7% month on month. The cumulative production from January to September was 17.95 million vehicles, an increase of 4.8% year-on-year. The production and sales of new energy vehicles have increased year-on-year, but the growth rate has slowed down. The demand for cobalt in the market has increased, but the growth rate may not meet expectations.

Overview and outlook

According to Bai Jiaxin, a data analyst at Business Society, the production and sales of new energy vehicles have grown, but the growth rate may not meet expectations. International cobalt prices have slightly increased, and the domestic cobalt market is positive. Overall, the supply and demand in the cobalt market have increased, and the rise in international cobalt prices has stimulated domestic cobalt exports. The supply and demand in the cobalt market are relatively balanced, and the cobalt price is expected to fluctuate and consolidate in the future.