According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the price of cryolite in Henan region remained stable this week. On November 10th, the average market price in Henan region was 7775 yuan/ton, which is the same as the average price of 7775 yuan/ton on November 6th at the beginning of the week, with a month on month decrease of 1.27%.

This week’s cryolite market is on the sidelines, with upstream product prices remaining unchanged, cryolite costs stabilizing, and downstream demand for goods continuing to be weak. There is still resistance towards high priced cryolite, and manufacturers are shipping according to demand. The market trading atmosphere is average, and the supply and demand on the market are relatively balanced. The quotation of cryolite manufacturers is temporarily stable. As of November 10th, the factory quotation for cryolite in Shandong region is 7000-8600 yuan/ton; The factory quotation for cryolite in Henan region is between 7200-8800 yuan/ton, and the price range remains unchanged.

The upstream fluorite market is operating steadily, with an average market price of 3700 yuan/ton on November 10th, which is unchanged from the price of 3700 yuan/ton on November 6th. The supply of raw ore is still tight, and the spot fluorite continues to be tight. The demand side refrigerant trend is temporarily stable, and the downstream market is not good. Manufacturers ship as needed, and the fluorite market price remains stable.

Future Market Forecast: Upstream supply is tight, production of cryolite enterprises is under pressure, equipment maintains low load operation, market supply is rational, downstream purchasing enthusiasm on the demand side is average, demand support is limited, and due to cost impact, cryolite prices will remain stable. It is expected that the short-term cryolite market will operate on a wait-and-see basis, with specific attention paid to changes in manufacturer inventory and downstream acceptance.

According to the analysis system of the commodity market of the Business Society, as of November 9th, the average price of PMMA, a general transparent and high-quality product in China, was 14566.67 yuan/ton. This week, the price of PMMA showed a narrow and weak trend, with a price drop of 0.23% compared to the same period last week. Downstream demand procurement was the main focus, and negotiations remained stable.

This week, the general transparent grade premium product PMMA in China showed a stable and weak trend, with prices dropping by 0.23% compared to the same period last week. The purchasing atmosphere is average, and downstream demand is insufficient. Currently, the quotation range of mainstream manufacturers is still around 14600 yuan/ton. The operating rate is stable, and the overall market supply and demand is balanced. Manufacturers are willing to give up profits and take orders, and the cost support is weak. Downstream procurement is mainly based on demand, and there is no obvious willingness to hoard, Enterprise quotation: Shanghai Hongqi Plastic Technology Co., Ltd. 14800 yuan/ton.

Rubber and Plastic Index: On November 9th, the rubber and plastic index was 677 points, a decrease of 1 point from yesterday, a decrease of 36.13% from the highest point in the cycle of 1060 points (2012-03-14), and an increase of 28.22% from the lowest point of 528 points on April 6th, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1st, 2011 to the present).

PMMA analysts from Business Society believe that in the short term, PMMA will remain weak and stable, with a limited range of price fluctuations.

Aluminum prices slightly rebounded on November 8th

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the average price of domestic aluminum ingots in the East China market on November 8, 2023 was 19240 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.33% compared to the aluminum price of 19176.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month (November 1).

In the long term, the current price is in a sideways range after a high decline. Since May, the price has been fluctuating below 19000 yuan/ton, breaking through 19000 yuan/ton at the end of August. In September, aluminum prices first fell and then rose, and in October, the center of gravity of aluminum prices returned to around 19000 yuan/ton.

At present, electrolytic aluminum production enterprises mainly maintain stable production and have a large operating capacity. The current aluminum ingot inventory has accumulated after the holiday, and the supply of aluminum ingots is sufficient, which has suppressed aluminum prices. However, the demand in the downstream peak season has partially fulfilled, with strong cost support and narrowed downward space. There is an expected increase in production reduction in the near future, and aluminum prices may fluctuate slightly in November.

According to data monitoring by Business Society, as of November 7, 2023, the domestic market price of butanone was referenced at 7566 yuan/ton. Compared with November 1, 2023 (reference price of butanone was 8100 yuan/ton), the price was reduced by 534 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6.56%.

From the data monitoring chart of Business Society, it can be seen that since the fourth quarter, the overall market situation of domestic butanone has been weak and declining. Entering November, the decline in the butanone market has not stopped, and downstream demand continues to be weak. The overall focus of the butanone market continues to move towards a low level. As of November 7th, the domestic butanone market price is referenced around 7100-7600 yuan/ton, while the high level price is referenced around 8000 yuan/ton, with a drop of over 6% within seven days.

Factors influencing the downward trend of butanone market:

In terms of demand: Currently, the inquiry atmosphere on the butanone market is light, and the overall follow-up of downstream demand is insufficient. There are few new orders and transactions, and the support provided by the demand side to the market is limited. The mentality of the operators is average, and the wait-and-see atmosphere on the market is strong.

On the supply side: Due to the recent overall boost in downstream demand in the butanone market, the overall performance has been poor. The pace of butanone shipment is slow, and the supply pressure from butanone factories and suppliers is gradually increasing. Therefore, the support provided by the supply side to butanone is also limited.

In terms of cost: Currently, the overall performance of the C4 market for butanone raw material ether is weak, and it is difficult to provide stable support for butanone at the cost side.

Prediction and Analysis of the Future Market of Butanone

At present, the domestic butanone trading atmosphere on the market is still relatively light, with insufficient support from both the demand side and the cost side. It has been heard that some devices have plans to start operating in the near future, and the overall operating rate may increase again. The butanone data analyst from the Business Society believes that in the short term, there is still a narrow downward risk in the domestic butanone market, and the specific trend needs to pay more attention to specific news changes on the supply and demand side.

This week, the price of 441 # metal silicon continued to be under pressure. As of November 6th, the average price in the domestic metal silicon market was 15420 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.52% compared to the previous week. This week, the electricity prices in the main southern production areas increased, and some factories are not willing to sell at low prices. However, due to the concentrated cancellation of warehouse receipts and the decline in downstream polycrystalline silicon prices, the cost side is unable to support silicon prices. In terms of futures, in the second half of this week, futures weakened, with SI2401 rising or falling 0.43% throughout the week, closing at 14120 yuan/ton.

The price of 441 # silicon in various regions on the 6th is as follows:

The price range of # 441 metal silicon in the Huangpu Port area is 15200-15400 yuan/ton, with an average price of 15300 yuan/ton; The price range of # 441 metal silicon in Tianjin Port area is 15200 to 15300 yuan/ton, with an average of 15250 yuan/ton; The price range of # 441 metal silicon in Kunming region is 15400-15500 yuan/ton, with an average price of 15450 yuan/ton; The price range of # 441 metallic silicon in Sichuan region is 15100-15300 yuan/ton, with an average price of 15200 yuan/ton; The price range of Shanghai # 441 metal silicon is 15800-16000 yuan/ton, with an average price of 15900 yuan/ton.

Factors Influencing the Price of Silicon Metal

On the supply side:

As of November 2nd, there were 434 silicon metal furnaces operating in China, with an overall furnace opening rate of 59.53%, a decrease of 4 furnaces compared to the previous month. The resumption of production and work in the northern region continues, while the abundant water period in the southwestern region ends. Electricity prices have increased, production costs have increased, and silicon factories have chosen to suspend production and work. However, it is currently in a small range and has little impact on the overall supply.

In terms of inventory:

As of November 3rd, the total social inventory was 359000 tons, an increase of 8000 tons compared to last week. Among them, Huangpu Port has 29000 tons, a decrease of 1000 tons compared to last week; Kunming has 48000 tons, an increase of 3000 tons compared to last week, and the delivery warehouse in Kunming has 75000 tons, a decrease of 1000 tons compared to last week; Tianjin Port has 38000 tons, with an increase of 0.1 compared to the surrounding area.

In terms of demand:

This week, the domestic polycrystalline silicon market further declined, and the mainstream range of single crystal dense materials with a model of primary solar grade is currently maintained at 7.0-7.5 yuan/ton. The supply pressure in the silicon material market has increased, and the accumulated inventory in the later stage has not ended. There is still a possibility for enterprises to continue to lower prices. Silicon material enterprises have severely pressured raw material procurement, and the industrial chain has transmitted pressure on metal silicon.

The overall market situation of organic silicon DMC is weak and has a narrow downward trend, with a market price reference of 14580 yuan/ton. Although there is a strong wait-and-see sentiment in the downstream and overall demand is generally supported, there has been no significant fluctuation in the market of leading large factories, and the overall market price adjustment space is limited.

The price of aluminum alloy has fluctuated and adjusted, with a slight correction in the price of aluminum alloy ADC12. The current quotation is 19600 yuan/ton. At present, aluminum factories are consuming raw material inventory, and small and medium-sized factories have low enthusiasm for starting operations, while purchasing metal silicon is passive.

Future Market Forecast

Overall, the number of furnace openings decreased this week, but warehouse orders were cancelled in November, putting supply under pressure from concentrated selling. The downward adjustment in downstream polycrystalline silicon prices has dragged down metal silicon prices, and the short-term metal silicon market remains under pressure. In the future, we can pay attention to the progress of Southwest Silicon Factory’s production reduction.

Zinc prices fluctuate and rise this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of November 3rd, the zinc price was 21520 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.88% compared to the zinc price of 21122 yuan/ton on October 27th last weekend. Nesta suspended the operations of two zinc mines in the United States, resulting in a decrease in zinc concentrate processing costs, continuous tightening of zinc mine production, reduced supply expectations in the zinc market, and fluctuating zinc prices.

Reduction in zinc concentrate processing costs

From the trend chart of zinc concentrate processing fees, it can be seen that in October, the zinc concentrate processing fees rapidly decreased, and the domestic zinc ore production is expected to decrease. On the domestic smelting end, smelters do not stop production all year except for maintenance. Currently, there is still profit space for smelters under processing fees. Smelters are actively storing in winter, and the production of zinc smelters is expected to increase. The domestic zinc market supply is expected to be stable.

Nesta to suspend operations at two zinc mines in the United States

According to Nyrstar, due to weak prices and inflation, the company plans to temporarily close two zinc mines in Tennessee by the end of November, which is expected to affect production of 40000 to 50000 tons of zinc mines. As early as mid June 2023, Swedish mining company Boliden announced the suspension of production at Tara, the largest Irish zinc mine in Europe, which produces approximately 103200 metal tons of zinc concentrate annually; In mid February, an accident occurred at one of the world’s top ten zinc mines, the Dugard River mine in Queensland, Australia, and operations were suspended. In 2023, multiple zinc mine manufacturers have suspended their zinc mine business multiple times, leading to an expected decrease in zinc mine production and a decrease in zinc market supply.

Global Zinc Production

The global zinc production in 2022 is approximately 12.8 million tons, and it is expected to recover in 2023, an increase of 2.0% compared to 2022. Nyrstar has announced the suspension of its zinc mine production. Its 40000 to 50000 tons of zinc mine production accounts for a relatively small proportion of the global total zinc mine production, and it is expected to have little impact on the supply of zinc in the market. However, the suspension of zinc mine production has a certain impact on the sentiment of the zinc market, and zinc prices will support an increase in the short term.

Future Market Forecast

Data analysts from Business Society believe that the Federal Reserve has not raised interest rates as scheduled, and non-ferrous and precious metals have generally risen; Nyrstar Company closed two zinc mines in Tennessee, and due to the shutdown of zinc mines, bullish sentiment in the zinc market surged. London zinc rose sharply on the night trading, while Shanghai zinc rose 2.5%; The decrease in zinc concentrate processing fees has affected the supply of zinc in the market, but zinc smelters are actively storing in winter, and the production of zinc in the market is expected to steadily increase. Overall, the macro outlook is positive, with a general increase in non-ferrous metals, a halt in zinc mine production, and a decrease in zinc concentrate processing fees. The expected decrease in zinc smelting production is expected, but zinc smelters are actively storing in winter, with stable supply expectations in the zinc market. The short-term zinc market is bullish, and the medium to long-term zinc price expectations are expected to fluctuate and consolidate.

Product name: Isooctanol

Latest price (November 1st): 11460.00/ton

On November 1st, the market price of isooctanol in Shandong Province significantly decreased, with a price drop of 660 yuan/ton compared to October 31st, a decrease of 5.45%, and a year-on-year increase of 24.57%. Upstream propylene prices have slightly increased, with good cost support. The downstream DOP market has slightly declined, and downstream demand has slowed down. Enterprises are operating at a high level, with severe inventory accumulation, and large factories are lowering prices to attract orders.

Recently, the market price of isooctanol in Shandong region may fluctuate slightly, with an average market price of around 11200 yuan/ton.

The center of gravity of aluminum prices moved down in October

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of October 31, 2023, the average price of domestic aluminum ingots in the East China market was 19093.33 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.84% compared to the aluminum price of 19856.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month (October 1).

In the long term, the current price is in a sideways range after a high decline. Since May, the price has been fluctuating below 19000 yuan/ton, breaking through 19000 yuan/ton at the end of August. In September, aluminum prices first fell and then rose, and in October, the center of gravity of aluminum prices returned to around 19000 yuan/ton.

Overview of Fundamentals

Expected reduction in production at the supply end

Supply side: There is news on the market that Yunnan will reduce production recently. Relevant departments in Yunnan Province and electrolytic aluminum departments have jointly met to discuss the electricity consumption situation in the industry during the dry season. Electrolytic aluminum enterprises in the province are expected to reduce production by 22%. Next week, the production reduction ratio of each electrolytic aluminum factory will be determined and implemented, with a production reduction scale of up to one million tons. In addition, the remaining 200000 tons of new production capacity of Baiyinhua Aluminum Power will be electrified and put into operation. Overall, the operating capacity of domestic electrolytic aluminum is expected to decrease.

There is a weakening pressure on the demand side

In the peak season of October, the performance did not meet expectations, and there were insufficient new orders. The off-season pressure is beginning to show, and future demand is facing weak pressure. The orders for building profiles have slightly increased, but the overall strength of the building profile sector is still weak. In the industrial profile sector, orders for photovoltaic profiles have significantly decreased due to the continued weakness of the photovoltaic industry chain, while automotive profiles have remained stable.

Narrow fluctuation in cost

Cost side: The spot market for alumina continues to rise due to supply side production cuts. The prices of coal at ports and pitheads have shown a downward trend, and the mainstream self owned power plants in Shandong have once again lowered their coal procurement prices for November. The immediate full cost of electrolytic aluminum is around 16231 yuan/ton, a month on month increase of 33 yuan/ton. The recent pressure on coal prices has to some extent limited the expected increase in future electricity costs for electrolytic aluminum. In addition, the expected decrease in procurement prices for auxiliary materials such as pre baked anodes in November is expected to hedge against a slight increase in alumina, and it is expected that the short-term domestic electrolytic aluminum cost will mainly fluctuate within a narrow range.

Inventory increased month on month

In terms of social inventory, following the start of destocking in the second half of July, inventory is relatively low. As of October 30th, the social inventory of mainstream electrolytic aluminum ingots in China was 612000 tons, with a cumulative inventory of 57000 tons compared to October 7th. Based on year-on-year data, it is close to the 636000 tons in the same period of last year’s post holiday history and still at a low level in the same period of the past five years.

Future market forecast

Electrolytic aluminum production enterprises mainly maintain stable production and have large operating capacity. Currently, there is a surplus of aluminum ingot inventory after the holiday, and the supply of aluminum ingots is sufficient, which suppresses aluminum prices. However, the demand in the downstream peak season is partially fulfilled, with strong cost support and narrowed downward space. There are expected production cuts and bonuses in the near future, and aluminum prices may fluctuate slightly in November.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the price of boric acid increased in October. As of October 30th, the average price of boric acid in the domestic market was 7562.50 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.17% compared to the beginning of the month, but a decrease of 6.64% compared to the beginning of the year, which was 8100 yuan/ton. At present, the quotation range of domestic boric acid traders is between 7100 to 7800 yuan/ton (the actual transaction price of different brands, specifications, and products is mainly negotiated).

At present, the external quotation for imported goods is concentrated between 7800 to 8500 yuan/ton (the actual transaction price of different brands, specifications, and products is mainly negotiated). According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the average market price of imported boric acid is 8192.86 yuan/ton, which remains unchanged compared to the average market price at the beginning of the month.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic polyester staple fiber market maintained a slight decline this week (October 23-27). As of October 27, the average price of 1.4D * 38mm in mainstream factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was 7642 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.91% compared to the beginning of the week.

Recently, crude oil prices have fluctuated repeatedly around the conflict between Palestine and Israel, as well as expectations of weak demand. On October 26th, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was at $83.21 per barrel, while the settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was at 87.05 yuan per barrel. Hengli’s 2.2 million ton PTA device has been delayed in restarting and contract goods have been reduced, resulting in a reduction in supply. This week, the domestic PTA market has stopped falling and slightly rebounded. As of October 27th, the average market price in East China was 5875 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.42% compared to the beginning of the week.

As the end of October approaches, terminals are gradually weakening, and the “Double Eleven” and Christmas promotion effects are limited, resulting in insufficient motivation to undertake new orders. After the inventory of textile enterprises increased, recent discounts have increased, and the price of pure polyester yarn has remained stable and weak. As of October 27th, the reference price for pure polyester yarn in the Shandong region was 12775 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.58% compared to the beginning of the week. With the weakening of raw material prices, the enthusiasm for restocking has decreased, and only the demand for goods has been maintained.

Analysts from Business Society believe that in the future, increased supply and weak demand will create a drag on the polyester staple fiber market. Recently, there is a new device feeding plan for polyester staple fibers, and it is expected that the construction trend will improve and the supply will increase. Superimposed, the traditional peak season market in the downstream is approaching its end, and entering November, the demand for the textile market will significantly weaken, and the demand for polyester staple fibers will gradually decrease. It is expected that the short-term polyester staple fiber market will still be dominated by weak adjustments.