This week, the market for epichlorohydrin saw a slight increase. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of November 24th, the average price quoted by epoxy chloropropane enterprises was 8075.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.62% compared to Monday’s price.

Price influencing factors:

Cost side: According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the domestic propylene (Shandong) market has recently seen a narrow upward trend, with stable raw material glycerol prices as the main factor. The cost side is still supported by the epichlorohydrin market.

Supply and demand side: The utilization rate of production capacity on the supply side is relatively low, with manufacturers mainly delivering contracts and spot supply being insufficient, supporting the mentality of enterprises to raise prices. Downstream enterprises are observing the market demand and following up appropriately. The main downstream epoxy resin market is average, with limited support for the epichlorohydrin market. According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the reference price of epoxy resin on November 24th was 13266.67, a decrease of 4.78% compared to November 1st (13933.33).

According to analysts from Business Society, in the short term, there is no pressure on the supply side to boost prices, but there is insufficient follow-up from the demand side, resulting in a stalemate in the market atmosphere. It is expected that the market for epichlorohydrin may consolidate and operate in the short term, and more attention still needs to be paid to market news guidance.

1、 Trend analysis

According to the monitoring of nickel prices by the Business Society, on the 23rd, the average spot market price of nickel was 12899.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.41% from the previous day and a year-on-year decrease of 37.05%.

The minutes of the November meeting of the Federal Reserve indicate that it will maintain restrictive interest rates and will act cautiously in the future, with the possibility of further interest rate hikes. After the data was released, the US dollar stopped falling and turned higher, while US stocks fell. The sales data of existing homes in the United States for October has been declining for five consecutive months, reaching a new low since 2010. The sales data of existing homes is often seen as an indicator of economic health, thereby putting pressure on non-ferrous metal prices. The nickel surplus continues, and due to the expansion of steel mills’ production reduction scale, the cost side nickel iron price weakens. The spot market atmosphere is pessimistic, and the downward space for stainless steel expands; After the recovery of profits in steel mills, some enterprises began to resume production. The high inventory of stainless steel and nickel iron links led to internal competition in the iron mills, which further led to the collapse of stainless steel costs and negative feedback on the industrial chain, bringing certain pressure to the nickel market. Nickel is expected to remain weak and volatile in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the price of cryolite in Henan has remained stable recently. On November 21, the average market price in Henan was 7775 yuan/ton, which is the same as the average price of 7775 yuan/ton on November 13, with a month on month decrease of 1.27%.

Recently, the market situation of cryolite has remained stable and wait-and-see. Upstream product prices have remained high and firm, while cost support for cryolite still exists. Manufacturers’ quotations remain stable, while downstream companies still have resistance towards high priced cryolite. They often follow up on demand when entering the market, and cryolite is affected by costs, maintaining stable shipments. The market supply and demand are deadlocked, and the cryolite market is operating on a wait-and-see basis. As of November 21st, the factory quotation for cryolite in Shandong region is 7000-8600 yuan/ton; The factory quotation for cryolite in Henan region is between 7200-8800 yuan/ton, and the price range remains unchanged.

The upstream fluorite market is firm and stable, with an average market price of 3700 yuan/ton on November 21, which is unchanged from the price of 3700 yuan/ton on November 13. The upstream mining of fluorite is tight, and the shortage of raw materials has restricted the operation of fluorite enterprises. The spot supply of fluorite continues to be tight, and the demand side refrigerant trend is temporarily stable. The downstream market is not good, and manufacturers ship according to demand. At the same time, with the temperature decreasing and the increase of rain and snow weather in the northern region, fluorite production is limited, which affects the stable operation of fluorite market prices and strong support for cryolite.

Future Market Forecast: Upstream spot prices continue to be tight, cryolite enterprises are under pressure in production, devices are operating at low loads, manufacturers’ inventory is not under pressure, cryolite prices are strong, and demand is mainly wait-and-see. Purchasing is rational, but due to strong cost support, there is insufficient room for cryolite prices to fall. It is expected that the short-term cryolite market will continue to operate on a wait-and-see basis, and attention will be paid to upstream price changes and downstream follow-up in the future.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, TDI prices in East China fell first and then rose in mid November. On November 20th, the average market price in East China was 17100.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.19% compared to the price of 17133.33 yuan/ton on November 11th, and a decrease of 1.16% compared to the beginning of the month.

The domestic TDI market has been in a weak state this cycle, with prices falling first and then rising during the week. Prior to the 15th, the enthusiasm of domestic downstream market entry was lackluster, the market trading atmosphere was weak, the supply side news was quiet, the trade market mentality was pessimistic, and the shipment of cargo holders was not smooth, and the TDI offer continued to move downward; In the later stage, the news of the shutdown and lockdown of Shanghai’s large factory equipment was released, and the spot filling was tightened. The trading market, guided by supplier information, reported prices to stop falling and rebound. However, due to the still weak downstream purchasing sentiment and insufficient confidence among traders, the TDI trading center only slightly increased.

The price of upstream toluene has decreased, and the market situation has been weak during the cycle. On November 20th, the domestic average price of toluene was around 6800.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.32% compared to the price of 6890.00 yuan/ton on November 11th. The international crude oil price is weak and volatile, and the cost support for toluene has weakened. Downstream demand has entered the off-season, with weak market inquiries and insufficient demand support. In addition, due to the abundant supply of toluene, the toluene market has been weakened and consolidated.

After market analysis, TDI data analysts from the Business Agency believe that the supply of goods in the domestic TDI market is slow to fill, and traders have a strong intention to raise prices. However, downstream demand is flat, the market trading atmosphere is light, and TDI growth is limited. Under the supply and demand game, it is expected that the short-term TDI market will fluctuate and consolidate, and specific attention will be paid to downstream follow-up.

Price trend

In mid November, the domestic PA6 market rebounded in a narrow range, with some spot prices rising. According to data monitoring from Business News Agency, as of November 20th, the mixed benchmark price of PA6 in China was 14475 yuan/ton, a decrease of -0.34% compared to the average price level at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

In terms of raw materials:

From the above figure, it can be seen that the market price of caprolactam increased in mid November. The price of raw material pure benzene has increased, which is beneficial for cost support. Some enterprises have reduced the load of caprolactam units and reduced market supply. Downstream procurement is on demand, and the demand side is relatively stable. In the future, the supply of pure benzene and caprolactam is showing a rebound trend, and it is expected that the price of caprolactam may temporarily stabilize in the short term.

On the supply side:

In mid November, the load of PA6 production enterprises slightly increased, with an average operating rate of around 75% in the interval. The market supply is almost flat compared to the previous period, and there is ample supply of goods on the market. The inventory level has taken on the previous low level, and there has been no significant increase in supplier pressure. The support for PA6 spot goods still exists.

In terms of demand: Downstream, the load of the weaving and spinning industries has fluctuated slightly and remained stable, with an average load position of around 66% and 81%, respectively. In terms of terminal enterprises, their willingness to stock up in the middle of the year is average, with only some enterprises making pre orders, and overall, their acceptance of high priced goods is not good. Trading is concentrated near maintaining production demand, with replenishment prices mostly centered around the low end, and overall support for the demand side of PA6 chips is weak.

Future Market Forecast

In mid November, the PA6 market rebounded in a narrow range. The price of caprolactam has increased, and the cost support for PA6 has increased. The demand side is cautious in picking up goods, and market trading tends towards the low end. The domestic polymerization plant has seen a narrow increase in load, and the inventory position remains low. The polymerization plant has a strong willingness to raise prices. It is expected that the PA6 market will continue to consolidate in the short term.

According to the monitoring of Business Society, since November, the hydrogen peroxide market has continued to decline weakly, with a decline of over 21%. At the beginning of the month, the average market price of hydrogen peroxide was 1150 yuan/ton. On November 17th, the average market price of hydrogen peroxide was 900 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 21.74%.

market analysis

After November, the demand for terminal printing and papermaking decreased, and the hydrogen peroxide market continued to decline weakly, with the mainstream market price dropping to 900 yuan/ton. The average market price of hydrogen peroxide in Shandong region is 900 yuan/ton; The average market price of hydrogen peroxide in Hebei region is 850 yuan/ton; Hydrogen peroxide in Anhui region is 950 yuan/ton; The overall decline in the market compared to the beginning of the month is 150-200 yuan/ton.

Future prospects

Business Society Hydrogen Peroxide Analysts believe that the low season of terminal demand is expected to put pressure on the future hydrogen peroxide market.

Product name: isobutyraldehyde

Latest price (November 16th): 7683.33 yuan/ton

On November 16th, the domestic market price of isobutyraldehyde slightly increased, increasing by 133.33 yuan/ton or 1.77% compared to November 15th, with a year-on-year increase of 18.21%. The price of raw material propylene has slightly decreased, with average cost support. The downstream market for neopentyl glycol has slightly declined, and downstream customers’ enthusiasm for purchasing isobutyraldehyde has weakened. Some manufacturers have stopped for maintenance, resulting in a decrease in the circulation of goods in the market, and some dealers have raised their prices.

In the future, it is expected that the domestic market price of isobutyraldehyde may fluctuate and rise, with consolidation being the main focus. The average market price is around 7700 yuan/ton.

Aluminum fluoride prices stabilized this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of November 15th, the domestic quotation for aluminum fluoride was 11450 yuan/ton, which is stable compared to the price of aluminum fluoride on November 7th last week, which was 11450 yuan/ton. Cost pressure has weakened, demand support is limited, and aluminum fluoride prices have stabilized this week.

Reduced cost pressure

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of November 15th, the price of fluorite was 3700 yuan/ton, which is stable compared to the price of fluorite on November 7th, which was 3700 yuan/ton. As of November 15th, the price of hydrofluoric acid was 11183.33 yuan/ton, which was stable compared to the price of hydrofluoric acid on November 7th, which was 11183.33 yuan/ton. The construction of fluorite mines is poor, downstream demand is sluggish, the fluorite market is stagnant, and fluorite prices are temporarily stable. Recently, some units of hydrofluoric acid manufacturers are still in shutdown, and there has been little change in the spot supply of hydrofluoric acid. The downstream orders of hydrofluoric acid from manufacturers are not good, and the export of hydrofluoric acid is relatively weak. In the future, hydrofluoric acid prices may remain low. The low price of raw materials remains stable, the cost of aluminum fluoride raw materials is stabilizing, and the cost pressure on aluminum fluoride is weakening.

Market Overview and Forecast

Analysts from the fluoride aluminum industry at Business Society believe that the low prices of hydrofluoric acid and fluorite have temporarily stabilized this week, and the cost of aluminum fluoride has stabilized. However, the operating load of fluorite and hydrofluoric acid enterprises is generally low, and the cost support for aluminum fluoride still exists; Yunnan faces power restrictions, expected decrease in electrolytic aluminum production, and a decrease in demand for aluminum fluoride; Aluminum fluoride enterprises are operating at a low level, and the supply of aluminum fluoride is shrinking. Aluminum fluoride manufacturers still have a willingness to raise prices. Overall, the supply and demand of aluminum fluoride are weak, and the cost is expected to stabilize. It is expected that the price of aluminum fluoride will stabilize in the future.

Product name: isopropanol

Latest price: 7660 yuan/ton

Key points of analysis: On November 14th, the market price of isopropanol bottomed out and rebounded, improving the trading atmosphere on the market. The upstream acetone market price has stabilized, driving confidence in the isopropanol market. Downstream enterprises are increasing their inquiries, purchasing is relatively cautious, and the market focus is slightly upward. Overall, the market trading is relatively active.

It is expected that the isopropanol market will be mainly strong in the short term.

Product name: Sulfur

Latest price: On November 13th, the average sulfur price in East China was 1003.33 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.44% compared to the previous working day price of 970.00 yuan/ton.

Analysis: The domestic sulfur market is operating strongly, with sulfur refining plants operating normally, stable market supply, optimistic downstream mentality, increased enthusiasm for entering the market to obtain goods, smooth factory shipments, reduced inventory, and refineries increasing sulfur prices by 30-40 yuan/ton based on their own inventory situation.

Future forecast: The market supply is stable, and downstream demand is well supported. It is expected that the short-term sulfur market will be strong and organized, with narrow price fluctuations.