According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic PTA spot market slightly increased this week (December 18-24), with a market price of 5874 yuan/ton in East China as of December 24, an increase of 2.83% compared to the beginning of the week. Enhanced cost support combined with reduced supply of PTA itself has boosted the PTA market. Specifically:

Due to the recent regional situation, international oil prices have risen to a two-week high. As of December 21, the settlement price of the US WTI crude oil futures main contract was $74.22 per barrel, and the settlement price of Brent crude oil futures main contract was $79.16 per barrel. At present, there is still significant uncertainty in the situation in the Middle East, and the Red Sea shipping crisis may continue to disrupt the market in the short term; In addition, against the backdrop of the Federal Reserve’s upcoming interest rate cut cycle, the weak US dollar has provided long-term positive support for the oil market. However, considering the market’s concerns about the prospects of economic and energy demand, it is expected that crude oil prices will have significant volatility, with consolidation being the main trend.

From the perspective of PTA fundamentals, the recent unplanned load reduction and increased maintenance have resulted in an industry operating rate dropping to around 78%. This week, four sets of main suppliers in East China with an annual production capacity of 10.8 million tons of PTA equipment were reduced to 70% on Tuesday. At the same time, a set of 1.2 million tons of PTA equipment in the northwest was shut down this Wednesday. Unplanned PTA equipment was reduced in load and the supply of parking PTA was reduced. However, from next week’s perspective, there are still many load increasing devices, and there are currently no other planned large-scale PTA device maintenance. Therefore, the impact of PTA’s main supplier’s load reduction on the supply of goods is limited, and the overall supply of PTA’s goods will still be sufficient next week.

Downstream polyester production has remained stable around 86%, but as the end of the year approaches, orders from the terminal weaving industry have decreased. Considering the gradual weakening of polyester and terminal demand support, the overall accumulation pressure of polyester products is significant. Moreover, downstream factories lack confidence in the future market and have a strong mentality of purchasing raw materials on dips. The operating rates of terminal texturing, weaving, and printing and dyeing have partially declined, and the comprehensive operating rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang weaving machines has dropped to around 73%. If orders continue to decrease, there is a strong expectation of “reducing burden”.

Business Society analysts believe that short-term international oil prices may fluctuate and adjust slightly, which still provides support for PTA costs. Secondly, polyester production may decrease next week, weakening support for PTA demand. In the short term, downstream demand will further decline, and the fundamentals of sufficient PTA supply are weak and difficult to improve. The market has expectations for sufficient PTA supply. Therefore, under the game of cost advantage support and weak supply and demand fundamentals, the high operating points of the current two markets are still constrained, and it is expected that there is not much room for PTA to continue to rise.

1、 Trend analysis

According to the monitoring of nickel prices by Business Society, on the 21st, the average spot nickel market price was 130808 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.21% from the previous trading day.

On a macro level, following the announcement of the December interest rate decision by the Federal Reserve, market focus has shifted to the core US November PCE data released this Friday. The market is waiting for important data to be released in order to obtain new guidance, as the US dollar fluctuates. The oversupply of nickel continues to expand, while the overall market demand is weak, and the significant accumulation of nickel inventory has dragged down the price trend. One of the world’s largest nickel mining countries, the Philippines, has nickel mines with production costs higher than market prices, leading to a significant decline in shipments. Some mines have suspended shipments to avoid losses, and the nickel mining market has maintained a sluggish transaction situation. Recently, nickel ore prices have decreased, and it is expected that nickel will experience short-term weak fluctuations.

According to data monitoring by Business Society, as of December 20, 2023, the domestic market price of butanone was referenced at 7216 yuan/ton. Compared with December 1, 2023 (reference price of butanone was 7533 yuan/ton), the price decreased by 317 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.20%.

From the monitoring chart of Business Society data, it can be seen that from December to present (12.1-12.20), the overall domestic butanone market has shown a weak downward trend. In early December, the domestic butanone market as a whole experienced a narrow downward trend, with loose downstream demand. The demand side provided insufficient support to the butanone market, and some butanone factories and suppliers slightly lowered the price of butanone by about 50-100 yuan/ton. As of December 10th, the butanone market experienced a decline of 0.88% in the first half of the year.

In the mid stage, the decline of the butanone market has not stopped, and downstream demand continues to be weak. The demand side continues to drag down the market, and the center of gravity of the butanone market has been continuously approaching at a low level. As of December 12th, the low-end price of butanone has dropped to around 7000 yuan/ton, followed by a weak consolidation operation in the market. On the 18th, some devices underwent temporary maintenance, and the expected supply of butanone in the field decreased. Some operators adjusted their mentality and raised the shipment price of butanone narrowly, with an increase of 50-100 yuan/ton, driving a slight correction in the butanone market. However, due to the limited boost from downstream demand, the rise of butanone was not continuous, and the market resumed consolidation and operation. As of December 20th, the domestic butanone market price reference was around 700-7600 yuan/ton.

Market Forecast and Analysis of Butanone

At present, the overall trading atmosphere in the butanone market is mild. The downstream of butanone has average digestion of raw materials, and procurement is mainly cautious and quantitative. The supply and demand pressure in the butanone market still exists. Business Society’s butanone data analyst believes that in the short term, the domestic butanone market is mainly adjusted and transitioned, and the specific trend still needs to pay more attention to the specific news changes on the supply and demand side.

This week, cobalt prices have stopped falling and stabilized

According to the cobalt market analysis system of the Business Society, as of December 19th, the price of cobalt was 214700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.96% compared to the cobalt price of 219000 yuan/ton on December 1st; The cobalt price has increased by 0.85% compared to December 11th at 212900 yuan/ton. The growth rate of the new energy vehicle market has slowed down, but the proportion of installed ternary batteries has rebounded. The shipment volume of mobile phones continues to decrease, and the demand for cobalt in the market is slowly growing. This week, cobalt prices have bottomed out and stabilized.

The proportion of installed capacity of ternary batteries has rebounded

According to data from the China Automotive Power Battery Industry Innovation Alliance, in terms of vehicle installation volume, in November, China’s power battery installation volume was 44.9GWh, a year-on-year increase of 31.0% and a month on month increase of 14.5%. The installed capacity of ternary batteries is 15.7 GWh, accounting for 35.0% of the total installed capacity; The installed capacity of lithium iron phosphate batteries is 29.1 GWh, accounting for 64.9% of the total installed capacity. In November, the installed capacity of ternary batteries increased significantly, and the proportion of ternary batteries slightly rebounded, leading to an increase in demand in the cobalt market.

Mobile phone sales rebounded

According to data from the China Academy of Information and Communications Technology, in October 2023, the shipment volume of mobile phones in the domestic market was 29.162 million units, a year-on-year increase of 19.7%. From January to October 2023, the total shipment volume of mobile phones in the domestic market was 230 million units, a year-on-year increase of 4.2%. The shipment volume of mobile phones has increased year-on-year, and the demand for cobalt in the mobile phone market has rebounded.

Overview and Outlook

According to Bai Jiaxin, a data analyst at Business Society, the sales growth of new energy vehicles in winter has slowed down, but the proportion of installed capacity of ternary batteries has increased; In October, the shipment volume of mobile phones increased significantly year-on-year, but after the Double Eleven and Double Twelve promotions, it once again entered a sluggish state. Consumers had planned to take advantage of the price reduction during the promotion to exchange phones, but major mobile phone manufacturers did not lower prices. The decrease in demand for phone replacements affected sales, and the shipment volume of mobile phones continued to decline, resulting in lower than expected demand in the cobalt market. Overall, the supply and demand balance in the cobalt market is relatively stable, and there is still downward pressure on cobalt prices in the future. The downward space for cobalt prices is limited, and it is expected that cobalt prices will consolidate at a low level in the future.

From December 11 to December 18, 2023, the antimony ingot market in East China slightly decreased, with prices remaining stable at 80500 yuan/ton this week.

K-bar chart of commodity prices, using the concept of price trend K-line, reflects the weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations. From the above chart, it can be seen that the recent trend of the antimony ingot market has been relatively stable.

This week, the price of European strategic small metal antimony has declined, and as of December 18th, the price remained stable at $11350 per ton. Currently, the market atmosphere is weak.

The overall performance of the antimony ingot market has been relatively stable recently, and the downstream antimony oxide market has maintained a temporary stable operation for nearly a month, driving the stabilization of the raw material market. There was not much change in supply and demand during the week, and the supply at the mining end remained tight. However, this news has been largely digested, and its impact on the market is limited. With the recent stabilization of the market, the mentality of smelters to be reluctant to sell and raise prices has begun to increase. However, the tight supply at the mining end has not been improved, and the overall supply of antimony ingots is tight. In terms of demand, the downstream antimony oxide market still maintains procurement, providing essential support for the antimony ingot market. Overall, the supply of antimony ingots in the market is tight, and there is no clear guidance from the market. It is expected that the antimony ingot market will continue to operate temporarily and steadily in the near future. We will pay attention to changes in downstream demand in the future.

This week, the antimony oxide market continued to maintain a temporary stable operation, with a strong wait-and-see sentiment in the market. Overseas sales performance was average, and overall market expectations were weak. Antimony oxide enterprises maintained a rigid demand for antimony ingots, and are expected to operate steadily in the short term.

On December 17th, the non-ferrous index was 1092 points, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 29.00% from the highest point in the cycle of 1538 points (2021-10-18), and an increase of 79.90% from the lowest point of 607 points on November 24th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-12-01 present).

According to the price monitoring of Business Society, there were a total of 10 commodities in the non-ferrous sector that saw a month on month increase in the commodity price rise and fall list in the 50th week of 2023 (12.11-12.15). The top 3 commodities with the highest increase were silver (1.74%), dysprosium oxide (1.71%), and zinc (1.59%). There are a total of 8 products with a month on month decline, and the top 3 products with a decline are praseodymium oxide (-2.11%), dysprosium iron alloy (-1.35%), and praseodymium neodymium oxide (-1.10%). The average increase and decrease this week is 0.11%.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic propylene (Shandong) market saw a slight increase this week (12.11-12.15). The average price in the Shandong market at the beginning of the week was 6968 yuan/ton, and the average price over the weekend was 7010 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 0.61% and a year-on-year decrease of 8.53%.

As of December 15th, the mainstream prices of propylene in different regions in China are as follows:

Region/ December 15th

Shandong region/ 6900-7000 yuan/ton

Northeast region/ 6650-6700 yuan/ton

East China region/ 7000-7050 yuan/ton

2、 Analysis and Review

According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the propylene market rose first and then stabilized this week. During the week, crude oil prices rose on the news side, boosting confidence among businesses. At the same time, downstream devices have gradually resumed operation, and demand has also increased, further boosting the market. After the upstream actively pushed up, the market returned to stability.

3、 Future Market Forecast

The propylene analyst from the Chemical Branch of Shengyishe believes that there will be limited changes in the supply of propylene in the short term, and the demand side will gradually return to stability. It is expected that the propylene market will remain stable and weak next week.

Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of December 14th, the average price of industrial grade lithium hydroxide in China was 147000.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6.13% compared to Monday’s price and 73.91% compared to the same period last year.

This week, the domestic industrial grade lithium hydroxide market fell. Recently, the industrial grade lithium carbonate market in the upstream has been declining, with weak prices of spodumene concentrate in the upstream, dragging down market sentiment. Downstream procurement has been slow to follow up, with a focus on cautious demand and a strong wait-and-see attitude. Holders are stimulating orders at low prices, and the focus of negotiations in the lithium hydroxide market has weakened.

Upstream lithium carbonate: Recently, the price of industrial grade lithium carbonate has dropped. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, on December 13th, the reference price for lithium carbonate industrial grade was 103000.00, a decrease of 16.53% compared to December 1st (123400.00), which weakened support for the lithium hydroxide market.

According to analysts from Shengyishe Lithium Hydroxide, the current cost support is insufficient, coupled with poor downstream demand and light market trading. It is expected that the domestic lithium hydroxide market may operate weakly in the short term, and more attention should be paid to market news guidance.

Product name: Sulfur

Latest price: On December 13th, the average sulfur price in East China was 1076.67 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.57% compared to the previous working day price of 1060.00 yuan/ton.

Analysis: The domestic sulfur market has seen a slight increase, with normal operation of sulfur refining plants and stable supply of goods in the market. Downstream demand for goods has increased, and the market trading atmosphere is positive. Refinery shipments are smooth, inventory has decreased, and manufacturers have a positive attitude. Prices will be adjusted based on their own shipment situation.

Market forecast: The supply of goods in the market remains rational, there is no pressure on manufacturer inventory, downstream demand is stable, and it is expected that the sulfur market will operate strongly in the short term, with narrow price fluctuations.

Product Name: Isopropanol

Latest price: 8310 yuan/ton

Key points of analysis: On December 12th, the market price of isopropanol remained temporarily stable, and the trading atmosphere on the market was average. The upstream acetone market prices have remained high, and the support for isopropanol is still acceptable. Downstream enterprises are inquiring more, and procurement is relatively cautious. Overall, the market trading is acceptable, and the manufacturer’s quotation is relatively firm.

It is expected that the isopropanol market will remain stable in the short term.

Recently, zinc prices have fluctuated and fallen

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of December 11th, the zinc price was 20692 yuan/ton, a fluctuation decrease of 0.39% compared to the zinc price of 20774 yuan/ton on December 1st. The domestic situation of strong supply and weak demand continues, with zinc prices experiencing a slight fluctuation and decline in December.

Recent increase in zinc concentrate port inventory

From the domestic zinc concentrate port inventory statistics table, it can be seen that as of December 8th, the zinc concentrate port inventory was 359000 tons, an increase of 36000 tons compared to December 1st. In December, the inventory of zinc concentrate at ports increased, and the supply of raw materials by zinc smelters was sufficient. However, the processing cost of zinc concentrate decreased, the operating rate of zinc smelters decreased, and the production of zinc ingots decreased.

Inventory statistics of zinc ingots in various regions of China

From the domestic zinc ingot inventory statistics table, it can be seen that on December 11th, the zinc ingot inventory was 49700 tons, a decrease of 13700 tons from the zinc ingot inventory of 63400 tons on December 1st; The inventory of zinc ingots has significantly decreased. The supply of zinc ingots has decreased.

Environmental protection reappears, downstream zinc production declines

Environmental protection production restrictions have reappeared in the northern region, with a slight decline in galvanizing production, but to a lesser extent than previous production restrictions; There is no significant increase in orders for zinc oxide, and overall production has shrunk; The number of new orders for die-casting zinc alloy has declined, and downstream demand for zinc ingots has declined.

Future Market Forecast

According to data analysts from Business Society, the processing fees for zinc concentrate have decreased recently, resulting in a decrease in zinc ingot production; Environmental protection production restrictions have reappeared, and demand for zinc ingots has declined. In recent times, the supply and demand of zinc ingots have been weak, and there is still downward pressure on the rise of zinc prices due to insufficient support. In the future, the weak supply and demand situation in the zinc market remains, and zinc prices are expected to consolidate at a low level.