According to the commodity market analysis system, the price of cryolite in Henan region remained stable this week. On January 7th, the average market price in Henan region was 7700 yuan/ton, which was stable compared to the average price of 7700 yuan/ton on January 1st and remained unchanged compared to the previous month.

This week, the ice crystal market has remained stable with minor fluctuations, and some companies have slightly lowered their prices. The prices of upstream products have declined, and the cost of cryolite has decreased. At the same time, the enthusiasm of downstream buyers for high priced cryolite is weak. Some companies have lowered their prices to promote shipments. However, due to the tight availability of raw materials, cost pressure support for cryolite enterprises still exists. Most companies have firm and stable quotes, and the market for cryolite is watching and consolidating. As of January 7th, the ex factory quotation for cryolite in Shandong region is 7000-8600 yuan/ton; The ex factory price of cryolite in Henan region is between 7000 and 8700 yuan/ton, with a price reduction of 300 yuan/ton within the range.

The upstream fluorite market trend has declined, with an average market price of 3431.25 yuan/ton on January 7th, a decrease of 2.83% compared to the price of 3531.25 yuan/ton on January 1st. The tight exploitation of upstream mines and the shortage of raw materials have limited the production of fluorite enterprises, and some manufacturers have limited production. Due to the impact of low temperature, rain, and snow weather in the north, some manufacturers have maintained low production levels. As the end of the year approaches, some small factories have engaged in low-priced inventory clearance, resulting in a decrease in fluorite prices. At the same time, the downstream market is weak, with poor procurement, and a downward trend in the fluorite market, which has a negative impact on the cryolite market.

Market forecast: Ice crystal raw materials are tight, enterprise cost support still exists, ice crystal manufacturers are operating at high prices, downstream purchasing enthusiasm is not high, market trading atmosphere is weak, and upstream prices continue to decline. There is more bearish sentiment in the market, and the downward momentum of ice crystal prices is increasing. It is expected that the ice crystal market will consolidate in the later stage, with slight price fluctuations. In the future, attention will be paid to upstream price changes and downstream follow-up.

Product name: Sulfur

Latest price: On January 8th, the average sulfur price in East China was 926.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8.55% compared to the previous working day of 1013.33 yuan/ton.

Analysis: The sulfur market in East China has experienced a broad decline, with normal operation of on-site sulfur plants and sufficient supply of goods in the market. However, the utilization rate of downstream plant capacity has decreased, weakening the enthusiasm for sulfur procurement. Market trading has been weak, and sulfur refinery shipments have been poor. At the same time, port prices have continued to decline, which has a negative impact on the spot market. Market bearish sentiment is shrouded, and in order to stimulate shipments, refinery prices have been significantly reduced at the beginning of the week.

Market forecast: There is sufficient supply of goods on the supply side, weak downstream demand, and a clear trend of oversupply on the market. It is expected that the short-term sulfur market will be weak and consolidating.

1、 Price trend

The year 2023 has come to a successful end. Looking at the development of the titanium dioxide market this year, according to commodity data monitoring, the overall price of titanium dioxide in 2023 has increased. At the beginning of the year, the average price of domestic titanium dioxide was 15933.33 yuan/ton, and at the end of the year, the average price was 16483.33 yuan/ton. The price increased within the year, with a magnitude of 3.45%.

2、 Market analysis

Product Market

Looking at the market development in 2023, the titanium dioxide market shows an M-shaped trend. In the first quarter, titanium dioxide companies had good market confidence and prices increased. In the second quarter, cost support weakened, demand was average, and prices were lowered. In the third quarter, Longqi issued a letter announcing a rise, indicating a positive market and active investment sentiment, resulting in an increase in prices. In the fourth quarter, the domestic terminal market remained sluggish, with market prices falling.

The first quarter is recovering in January. Cost support was good in February, downstream demand improved, and prices rose. In March, on-site inventory was low, while exports were good, and prices continued to rise. The cumulative increase from January to March was 7.43%. As of the end of March, domestic quotations for rutile type titanium dioxide are mostly between 16500 and 18500 yuan/ton; The quotation for rutile titanium dioxide is around 14500-15000 yuan/ton.

In the second quarter, cost support weakened from April to May, demand was average, and prices were lowered. In June, there was a stalemate between upstream and downstream markets, and the market was cautious in trading. Prices remained stable for the time being. The cumulative decline from April to June was 5.74%. As of the end of June, domestic prices for rutile type titanium dioxide are mostly between 15500 and 17200 yuan/ton; The quotation for rutile titanium dioxide is around 13500-14000 yuan/ton.

In the third quarter, manufacturers had more orders on hand, and on-site supply was slightly tight. In August, Longqi issued a letter announcing an increase, and the focus of new transaction prices shifted upwards. The cumulative increase from 7 to 9 is 7.23%. As of the end of September, domestic prices for rutile type titanium dioxide are mostly between 16700 and 18600 yuan/ton; The quotation for rutile titanium dioxide is around 15500 yuan/ton; The quotation for chlorinated titanium dioxide is 19600 yuan/ton.

In the fourth quarter, the domestic terminal market was sluggish, with poor performance in new orders in October. The titanium dioxide market is about to enter the off-season, and traders are more flexible in their transactions, resulting in an increase in low-priced supply in the market. At the end of November, Longbai Group’s new order price was reduced by 1000 yuan/ton. Prices continue to decline. The cumulative decline from 10 to 12 is 4.72%. As of the end of December, domestic quotations for rutile type titanium dioxide are mostly between 16000-17600 yuan/ton; The quotation for rutile titanium dioxide is around 14500-15000 yuan/ton.

Import and export data

According to customs data, from January to November 2023, China imported approximately 73300 tons of titanium dioxide, a year-on-year decrease of 40.46%, and the import volume decreased by 49800 tons. The decrease in the import volume of titanium dioxide is mainly due to the weak domestic market, limited demand for titanium dioxide, and high cost pressure on enterprises.

According to customs data, the cumulative export of titanium dioxide from China from January to November 2023 was about 1.4983 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 17.14%, and the export volume increased by about 219200 tons. The steady increase in export share is beneficial for the new production capacity of titanium dioxide. In addition, the withdrawal of titanium dioxide production capacity from the international market is more favorable for domestic titanium dioxide exports. In the future, titanium dioxide exports will continue to steadily increase.

Production capacity and output

According to publicly available data, the cumulative production of titanium dioxide in China from January to November 2023 was 3.821 million tons, an increase of 7.16% year-on-year, with an increase of approximately 255200 tons in production. It is expected that the annual production of titanium dioxide will be over 4.2 million tons in 2023.

Downstream terminal

From January to November, the national real estate development investment was 10404.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 9.4%, of which residential investment was 7885.2 billion yuan, a decrease of 9.0%.

From January to November, the construction area of housing by real estate development enterprises was 8313.45 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 7.2%. Among them, the residential construction area was 58.5309 million square meters, a decrease of 7.6%. The newly constructed area of housing is 87.456 million square meters, a decrease of 21.2%. Among them, the newly constructed residential area was 63.737 million square meters, a decrease of 21.5%. The completed area of houses is 652.37 million square meters, an increase of 17.9%. Among them, the completed residential area was 47.581 million square meters, an increase of 18.5%.

From January to November, the sales area of commercial housing was 1005.09 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 8.0%, with residential sales area decreasing by 7.3%. The sales revenue of commercial housing reached 10531.8 billion yuan, a decrease of 5.2%, including a 4.3% decrease in residential sales.

At the end of November, the unsold area of commercial housing was 653.85 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of 18.0%. Among them, the unsold residential area increased by 20.4%.

From January to November, real estate development enterprises received 11704.4 billion yuan in funds, a year-on-year decrease of 13.4%. Among them, domestic loans amounted to 1422.7 billion yuan, a decrease of 9.8%; Utilizing foreign investment of 4.2 billion yuan, a decrease of 35.1%; Self raised funds of 3850.5 billion yuan, a decrease of 20.3%; Deposit and advance payment of 3958.3 billion yuan, a decrease of 10.9%; Personal mortgage loans amounted to 1998.2 billion yuan, a decrease of 8.1%.

In November, the Real Estate Development Prosperity Index (referred to as the “National Housing Prosperity Index”) was 93.42.

Overall, the investment confidence of real estate companies is still weak this year, and the industry’s available funds have not improved. As the central bank frequently voiced support for the reasonable financing needs of real estate enterprises at the end of November. In late December, Beijing and Shanghai will respectively reduce the down payment ratio for home purchases and adjust the standard for ordinary housing. The future market expectation may improve, and the cash flow of real estate companies will improve, providing room for easing the industry’s financial pressure. The growth rate of development investment will reverse and expand the decline.

3、 Future Market Forecast

1. The new housing sales market will still face significant pressure in 2024. If the expectations of the real estate market improve in the future, the cash flow of real estate companies will improve. Coupled with favorable factors such as the renovation of old residential areas and the renovation of urban villages, it will bring certain benefits to the titanium dioxide market, and the sales scale may achieve a slight growth.

2. The Chinese titanium dioxide market has seen an increase in new production capacity. Public data shows that the domestic titanium dioxide production capacity is expected to reach 6 million tons in 2024, with monthly production exceeding 500000 tons. The international market share is steadily increasing, with an expected export volume of 1.63 million tons of titanium dioxide in 2023 and 1.8 million tons in 2024. The steady increase in export share in the future is beneficial for the new production capacity of titanium dioxide. In addition, the withdrawal of titanium dioxide production capacity from the international market is more favorable for domestic titanium dioxide exports. In the future, titanium dioxide exports will continue to steadily increase.

3. The domestic supply of raw material titanium concentrate is still in a tight situation, and the price continues to operate at a high level, providing strong support for titanium dioxide powder in terms of cost.

In summary, titanium dioxide enterprises will still face significant pressure in 2024, as the rate of capacity increase may exceed demand.

1、 Trend analysis

According to the monitoring of nickel prices by Business Society, the average spot nickel market price on the 3rd was 130050 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.04% from the previous trading day.

US bond yields rose, the US dollar rebounded, and metals generally closed lower under pressure. The continuous release of new production capacity for nickel intermediate products and nickel iron in China and Indonesia, the maintenance of excess supply in the nickel market, and the increasing accumulation of LME nickel inventories have limited the extent of price rebound. Recently, nickel sulfate prices have stopped falling and stabilized, and stainless steel prices have rebounded weakly supported by expectations of restocking. The disturbance of nickel surplus and the pressure of accumulated inventory have increased, but post holiday bargain hunting and restocking transactions have warmed up, putting pressure on the rebound of nickel prices. Expected short-term low volatility trend of nickel.

According to data monitored by Business Society, carbon black prices have been weak this week. As of now, the domestic N220 carbon black market price is 9566 yuan/ton

In terms of raw materials, the market price of coal tar fell this week. As of the 1st, the price of coal tar was 4237 yuan/ton, a decrease of nearly 150 yuan/ton from December 25th, which provided poor support for the cost of carbon black. The overall downstream market is still sluggish, and there are currently no eye-catching products in the downstream industry. We only maintain on-demand procurement for coal tar, which is suppressing the downward adjustment of coal tar market prices. The bearish situation still exists, and it is expected that coal tar prices will operate weakly in the short term.

Supply and demand side: In November, some carbon black enterprises stopped production for maintenance to alleviate inventory pressure, dragging down a narrow decline in the operating rate of carbon black enterprises. In December, due to environmental factors, some carbon black enterprises in Shandong, Shanxi and other regions were restricted in their operations, and the operating rate of carbon black enterprises was slightly reduced.

In terms of terminals: The downstream tire industry is currently in a seasonal off-season, and businesses have a more wait-and-see attitude. The demand for all steel tires and half steel tires is gradually slowing down. The transportation volume of goods in the northern logistics industry has significantly decreased, and the demand for tire replacement has sharply decreased. Terminal demand is weak, and enterprise inventory continues to slowly increase. Some tire companies are carrying out equipment maintenance to reduce production burden. Manufacturers are not actively purchasing carbon black raw materials, and entering the market to obtain goods only maintains basic needs, The market trading atmosphere is relatively quiet.

In the future, the high-temperature coal tar market may continue to be weak, providing poor support for the cost of carbon black; In the context of a sluggish market, the downstream terminal tire industry is facing a multi-dimensional demand for goods entering the market. It is expected that the carbon black market will remain generally stable in the short term and operate in a consolidated manner.

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, as of December 31, the mainstream ex factory price of domestic refined hydrogenated naphtha was 7746.50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.96% from December 21 at 7821.50 yuan/ton. The actual transaction price of refined hydrogenated naphtha was around 7700-7900 yuan/ton.

As of December 31, the mainstream ex factory price of domestically refined straight run naphtha was 7664.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.38% from December 21′s price of 7771.50 yuan/ton. The actual transaction price of domestically refined straight run naphtha was around 7600-7800 yuan/ton.

In late December, terminal demand procurement was the main focus, with no substantial improvement in fundamentals. The overall demand for naphtha terminals was weak, with average trading volume, and refineries reduced prices for shipments.

Upstream: In late December, international oil prices slightly declined. As of the 28th, the settlement price of the main WTI crude oil futures contract in the United States was at $71.77 per barrel, while the settlement price of the main Brent crude oil futures contract was at $77.15 per barrel. On the one hand, geopolitical factors have eased, and shipping in the Red Sea region has recovered. As a result, international oil prices have fallen. On the other hand, inflationary pressure still exists, and crude oil demand is poor. Currently, the demand for oil products in Europe and America is in the off-season, which has suppressed crude oil prices. The results of the production policy meeting of the last oil producing country (OPEC+) did not meet market expectations, as the reduction in production was less than expected; Secondly, the voluntary nature of the reduction in production is questionable, and the supply side will face greater pressure in the future.

Downstream: According to monitoring by Business Society, the domestic mixed blending market has entered a low season since the fourth quarter, with weak downstream inquiries. The demand for toluene and mixed xylene mixed blending continues to weaken, with a slight increase in toluene and a slight decrease in mixed xylene in late December; The price trend of PX is rising, and the domestic PX operating rate remains above 80%. Downstream support for the naphtha market is generally weak.

Market forecast: The international crude oil market is volatile, increasing the wait-and-see sentiment in the naphtha market; The domestic gasoline and diesel market has entered the off-season, and there is no significant positive effect on the terminal of refined naphtha; After the holiday, some companies may replenish their essential goods, but merchants are cautious in chasing higher prices. It is expected that the refined naphtha market in the post holiday area will mainly consolidate.

Aluminum prices slightly rebounded in December

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the average price of aluminum ingots in the East China market on December 28, 2023 was 19580 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.86% compared to the aluminum price of 18673.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month (December 1).

In the long term, the current price is in a sideways range after a high level decline. Since May, it has been fluctuating below 19000 yuan/ton, and by the end of August, it has exceeded 19000 yuan/ton. In September, aluminum prices first fell and then rose. In October, the center of gravity of aluminum prices fell back to around 19000 yuan/ton and fluctuated. In November, aluminum prices were weak and began to recover after mid December, standing above 19000 yuan/ton.

Current Fundamental Situation

On the supply side, Yunnan’s electrolytic aluminum production has been reduced, with an estimated scale of 1.17 million tons.

On the demand side, orders for new energy vehicles and photovoltaics performed well, but some traditional demand started slightly lower than expected. The off-season effect of alloys, plates, strips, and foils was evident, benefiting from the acceleration of ultra-high voltage and a slight rebound in orders for building curtain walls, while the cable and profile sectors saw a slight increase.

3. Social inventory continues to decline significantly. As of December 25th, the mainstream social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in China was 414000 tons, with 149000 tons of inventory removed compared to November 30th. Based on year-on-year data, it is at a low level in the same period of nearly five years.

4. In terms of cost, the shortage of ore still restricts the start of smelting. Aluminum oxide plants in Henan and Shanxi have no plans to resume production due to the shortage of raw materials. Guangxi is expected to resume production slightly, but the progress is slow. The heating season in the north may increase the possibility of alumina plants limiting production again. Heavy snow weather is spreading in the north, and some electrolytic aluminum plants in the northwest may have a need for early stocking. At the same time, recent road freight rates from Shandong, Henan to Xinjiang have increased compared to the previous period. According to the news, the explosion at the central oil depot in the capital of Guinea has caused a shortage of fuel supply, which has begun to affect ore production. It is reported that Shunda Mining in Guinea has suspended operations of Weili Mining and reduced its production capacity to half. Some bauxite producers have revealed that their existing inventory can only be maintained for about 10 days. At the same time, the tense situation in the Red Sea has increased shipping risks. The price of raw alumina is firm.

Fundamental variables that may affect prices in the near future

1. The risk of production reduction in Northwest electrolytic aluminum enterprises. Due to the impact of electricity supply, aluminum companies in regions such as Xinjiang and Qinghai may face the risk of reducing production.

2. There is an expectation of a downward shift in the operating rate of downstream processing enterprises in the Central Plains region. Recently, processing enterprises in Henan Province have experienced a decline in production due to environmental control measures.

Future market forecast

The strong price of alumina may continue, and cost support may strengthen. But currently, aluminum prices are also rising rapidly, digesting some of the positive news; Gradually entering the downstream consumption off-season, fortunately, the current social inventory of aluminum ingots remains low, providing some support for aluminum prices. It is expected that aluminum prices will fluctuate strongly in the later period.

Product name: isobutyraldehyde

Latest price (December 27th): 8166.67 yuan/ton

On December 27th, the domestic market price of isobutyraldehyde slightly increased, with a price increase of 100 yuan/ton compared to December 26th, an increase of 1.24%, and a year-on-year increase of 26.94%. The price of raw material propylene has slightly increased, with good cost support. The downstream market for new pentanediol has slightly increased, and downstream customers have increased their enthusiasm for purchasing isobutyraldehyde. Duo Chong Li is good, and some dealers have raised their prices.

In the future, it is expected that the domestic market price of isobutyraldehyde will fluctuate and rise, with consolidation being the main trend. The average market price is around 8200 yuan/ton.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the price of boric acid remained stable in December. As of December 26th, the average price of boric acid in the domestic market was 7462.50 yuan/ton, unchanged from the beginning of the month, and decreased by 7.87% from the average market price of 8100 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. At present, domestic boric acid traders offer prices ranging from 7000 to 7800 yuan/ton (actual transaction prices for different brands, specifications, and products are mainly negotiated).

At present, the foreign quotation for imported goods is concentrated between 7500-8000 yuan/ton (the actual transaction price of different brands, specifications, and products is mainly negotiated). According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the average market price of imported boric acid is 7862.5 yuan/ton, which is 0.63% lower than the average market price of 7912.5 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the price of boric acid remained stable in December. As of December 25th, the average price of boric acid in the domestic market was 7462.50 yuan/ton, unchanged from the beginning of the month, and decreased by 7.87% from the average market price of 8100 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. At present, domestic boric acid traders offer prices ranging from 7000 to 7800 yuan/ton (actual transaction prices for different brands, specifications, and products are mainly negotiated).

At present, the foreign quotation for imported goods is concentrated between 7500-8000 yuan/ton (the actual transaction price of different brands, specifications, and products is mainly negotiated). According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the average market price of imported boric acid is 7862.5 yuan/ton, which is 0.63% lower than the average market price of 7912.5 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month.