Since June, the butadiene rubber market has seen a significant increase. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of June 18th, the price of butadiene rubber in the East China region was 15570 yuan/ton, an increase of 10.50% from 14090 yuan/ton in early June. The price of raw material butadiene has significantly increased, and the cost support for butadiene rubber is strong; The production of butadiene rubber continues to remain low; Downstream tire production has recently declined, with weak purchases of butadiene rubber and high levels of butadiene futures, driving a strong market atmosphere.

Since June, the price of butadiene has risen significantly, with strong support for the cost of butadiene rubber. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of June 18th, the price of butadiene was 13650 yuan/ton, an increase of 14.95% from 11875 yuan/ton in early June.

Since June, the production of domestic butadiene rubber plants has continued to remain at a low level, and as of June 18th, the production of domestic butadiene rubber has been around 5.3%.

Demand side: Since mid June, downstream tire production has significantly decreased, and in the short term, demand will face some drag on the butadiene rubber market. As of June 14th, the operating load of semi steel tires in domestic tire enterprises is around 75%; The operating load of all steel tires for tire enterprises in Shandong region is about 5.2%.

Market forecast: From a fundamental perspective, analysts from Business Society believe that the price of raw material butadiene has significantly increased, and the cost support for butadiene rubber is strong; The production of butadiene rubber remains low, and the market supply is tight; At present, downstream tire companies have seen a significant decline in production, which has dragged down the production of butadiene rubber. Overall, the butadiene rubber market has remained strong in the near future under the support of cost and low production. We still need to pay attention to the downstream stocking situation in the future.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, from June 10th to 17th, the domestic ethanol price increased from 6007 yuan/ton to 6032 yuan/ton, with a weekly price increase of 0.42%, a month on month decrease of 0.29%, and a year-on-year decrease of 7.26%. The price of raw corn is pushing up, and the cost of grain for enterprises is increasing, providing price support. Due to increased equipment maintenance in some regions, there has been a situation of spot installation, resulting in a tight supply. However, the trend of oversupply has continued, with flat trading volume and narrow fluctuations in the overall price of domestic ethanol market.

On the cost side, currently available spot inventory is low, breeding profits are increasing, supply is tightening, and the overall domestic corn market is operating strongly. The cost of ethanol is influenced by favorable factors.

On the supply side, there are significant differences in the operating rates of production enterprises in different regions; Less than 40% of construction in East China has started; About 80% of the construction in Northeast China has started; The operating rate in southern and southwestern regions is about 20%. Heilongjiang Hongzhan Huanan Factory was shut down for maintenance in mid June, Guangxi Jinyuan was shut down for full line maintenance on June 12, Jilin Fuel Ethanol underwent maintenance in early July, Wanli Runda was shut down for maintenance in mid July, and Guotou Yushu Factory underwent maintenance in mid to late July. The supply side of ethanol is influenced by favorable factors.

On the demand side, Baijiu is purchased in the off-season, and the demand is weak; The downstream construction of ethyl acetate rose slightly. After the Dragon Boat Festival, ethyl acetate enterprises had the expectation of centralized procurement; The impact of compliance policies on ethanol gasoline refining is gradually weakening, and major purchasing companies have resumed procurement operations. In addition, the usage rate of in vehicle air conditioning will increase from June, leading to a rebound in gasoline demand. The short-term demand for ethanol is influenced by favorable factors.

The future market forecast shows that the current cost side and supply side are supported by favorable factors, and Baijiu and chemical procurement are not good. Supply and demand game. Ethanol analysts from Business Society predict that the short-term domestic ethanol market will mainly consolidate.

The price of phthalic anhydride fluctuated and fell this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic market price trend of ortho phthalic anhydride has fallen this week. As of June 14th, the quoted price of ortho phthalic anhydride was 8075 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.37% from the price of 8187.5 yuan/ton on June 7th; Compared to the beginning of the month, the price of 8187.5 yuan/ton has decreased by 1.37%.

Supply side: Stable device operation, tight supply of goods

The operation of domestic phthalic anhydride units is temporarily stable, while the operation of Anhui Tongling ortho phthalic anhydride equipment is normal. The 100000 ton phthalic anhydride unit of Xinyang Group is stable, and the maintenance of Shandong Hongxin phthalic anhydride equipment has resulted in a domestic phthalic anhydride operating rate of about 60%. The spot supply of phthalic anhydride is normal, and the delivery situation of phthalic anhydride manufacturers is average. This week, the price of industrial naphthalene has fallen, and the market of naphthalene ortho phthalic anhydride has fallen, which has affected the price of ortho phthalic anhydride.

On the demand side, the trend of on-demand procurement in the DOP market is declining

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of June 14th, the price of plasticizer DOP was 10250 yuan/ton, a fluctuation decrease of 1.44% compared to the DOP price of 10400 yuan/ton on June 7th. The market for plasticizer raw material phthalic anhydride has declined, the price of isooctanol has fluctuated and fallen, the cost of plasticizers has decreased, plasticizer DOP enterprises are operating steadily, and the supply of plasticizer DOP is sufficient. Downstream construction is expected to rise, while demand is expected to rebound. The support for the rise of plasticizers still exists.

Future Market Forecast

According to data analysts from Business Society’s phthalic anhydride products, in the future, the trend of crude oil prices has been fluctuating and rising recently, while the high price of ortho xylene has temporarily stabilized, and the cost support for phthalic anhydride still exists; The downstream DOP market is fluctuating and falling, and the demand for plasticizers is falling. The downstream procurement enthusiasm is not high, and it is expected that the market price of ortho phthalic anhydride will mainly fluctuate and consolidate in the later stage.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of June 13th, the reference average price of 85% thermal phosphoric acid in China was 6500 yuan/ton, which is a decrease of 1.52% compared to the reference average price of 6600 yuan/ton on June 1st.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of June 13th, the reference average price of 85% wet process phosphoric acid in China was 6766 yuan/ton, which is 6813 yuan/ton compared to the reference average price on June 1st. This week, the price of wet process phosphoric acid in China decreased by 0.73%.

2、 Market analysis

Entering June, the domestic phosphoric acid market prices fluctuated and fell. As of June 13th, the market price for 85% thermal phosphoric acid in Hubei region is around 6400-6800 yuan/ton. The domestic market quotation for 85% wet process phosphoric acid is around 6250-6800 yuan/ton.

Cost side

In terms of raw material yellow phosphorus. Entering June, the price of yellow phosphorus in the market is weak and declining. The market transaction atmosphere is poor, downstream purchases are priced down, and manufacturers mainly place early orders. At present, bearish sentiment is dominant in the market, and it is expected that domestic yellow phosphorus prices will remain weak and consolidate in the short term.

Market for raw material phosphate rock. Recently, the market price of phosphate ore has remained stable. The inquiry atmosphere inside the phosphate ore field is mild, and the pace of phosphate ore shipments in some areas is clear, with a good mentality among the operators. It is expected that the short-term domestic phosphate ore market will remain stable with minor adjustments.

Supply and demand side

At present, the phosphoric acid market has sufficient supply and a moderate trading atmosphere. The downstream demand for phosphoric acid is mainly for rigid procurement, and the purchasing enthusiasm is not high. The mentality of buying up instead of buying down has increased, and the terminal demand needs to be improved. Manufacturers and distributors can flexibly adjust prices, with a single negotiation being the main focus.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Business Society’s phosphoric acid analyst believes that the phosphoric acid market has been operating weakly recently. At present, there is insufficient support for costs and demand, and the market is mainly bearish, making it difficult for the short-term market to improve. It is expected that the short-term phosphoric acid market price will continue to be weak and consolidate. It is recommended to pay attention to changes in the raw material market.

The price of isooctanol fluctuated and rose this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of June 11th, the price of isooctanol was 10140 yuan/ton, a fluctuation increase of 2.42% compared to the price of isooctanol on June 1st, which was 9900 yuan/ton. This week, the price of isooctanol fluctuated slightly and rose. Since the domestic isooctanol market bottomed out in mid April, the price center of isooctanol has slowly shifted upwards. Isooctanol manufacturers are limited in quantity and reluctant to sell, while downstream customers have a strong demand for purchases, which provides significant support for the rise of isooctanol.

The price of raw material propylene fluctuated and rose this week

According to the propylene commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, as of June 11th, the propylene price was 6986.60 yuan/ton, a fluctuating increase of 1.93% compared to the propylene price of 6854.60 yuan/ton on June 1st. Crude oil prices fluctuate and consolidate, while propylene cost support still exists. This week, propylene prices fluctuate and rise; Downstream production of propylene has decreased, downstream customers have just needed to purchase, and propylene manufacturers have average shipments. The supply and demand of the propylene market are weak, and the price of propylene is consolidating strongly.

Downstream plasticizer prices fluctuate and rise this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of June 11th, the price of plasticizer DOP was 10362.50 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.47% from the DOP price of 10112.50 yuan/ton on June 1st of the month; On June 11th, the price of DOTP was 10375 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.34% compared to 10137.50 yuan/ton on June 1st at the beginning of the month. The price of raw material for plasticizers, phthalic anhydride, remains strong and temporarily stable, while the price of isooctanol fluctuates and rises. The cost of plasticizers has increased, and the profitability of plasticizers has decreased. The production of plasticizer enterprises has decreased, and the supply of plasticizers is sufficient.

Future expectations

According to analysts from Business Society’s octanol product data, in terms of cost, the price of propylene fluctuates and rises, while the cost of isooctanol is strongly supported; On the supply side, iso octanol manufacturers have low inventory and average shipments; In terms of demand, downstream plasticizer product prices of isooctanol have fluctuated and risen, and downstream demand support still exists. In the future, with tight supply and demand support for isooctanol, cost support is significant, and it is expected that the price of isooctanol will fluctuate and rise in the future.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the mainstream price of styrene in Shandong has fluctuated slightly recently. At the beginning of the week, the average price of styrene in Shandong was 9638.33 yuan/ton, while on the weekend, the average price of styrene in Shandong was 9558.33 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.29%. The price has increased by 21.58% compared to the same period last year.

styrene

Recently, the market price of styrene has fallen. From the above chart, it can be seen that the price of styrene has mainly fluctuated and increased in the past three months, with a slight correction in the market this week. International oil prices fluctuate and cost support is poor, while the styrene market has risen to a relatively high level. Spot demand is mainly in demand, and downstream demand is slightly resistant to high prices. The styrene market has slightly declined.

In terms of raw materials, the price of pure benzene has slightly decreased this week, and the negotiation atmosphere for pure benzene in East China is flat, with contract transactions being the main focus. Some refineries in Shandong have voluntarily lowered their shipments, while some refineries are sticking to bottom prices to sell their goods. Several factories auctioned off, and the transaction volume continued to shrink.

On the downstream side, the prices of styrene in the three major downstream markets have fluctuated. The average quotation for PS this week is 10200 yuan/ton, and the market is stable. The cost support for PS is not good, and the demand is average. It is expected that the domestic PS (polystyrene) price will mainly fluctuate downward in the short term.

This week’s EPS market has fluctuated and stabilized, with an average price of 10787.50 yuan/ton for ordinary materials over the weekend. The cost side support is average, coupled with downstream high price resistance, production and digestion of early finished product inventory are the main factors, and the market wait-and-see atmosphere is obvious, resulting in weak new order transactions. On the demand side, the recovery of downstream demand in the north is relatively slow, and the demand for home appliance packaging is improving. It is expected that the overall recovery of demand will be relatively slow next week.

Recently, domestic ABS prices have been relatively weak. From a fundamental perspective, the upstream three materials of ABS fluctuate and fluctuate, providing poor support for the cost side of ABS. The construction of ABS polymerization plant has significantly increased, and supply pressure is gradually increasing. On the demand side, the demand for goods is weak, and the support for spot goods is not good. In summary, it is expected that the ABS market will be mainly weak and consolidating in the short term.

Recently, international oil prices have risen, and the high price of pure benzene has fluctuated. The supply and demand of styrene are expected to improve and repair, and under the dual positive conditions, it is expected that the short-term volatility of the styrene market will mainly rise.

Domestic cobalt prices rebounded and rose in May

According to the cobalt market analysis system of Business Society, the cobalt price on May 31st was 226000 yuan/ton, an increase of 6.05% compared to the fluctuation of cobalt price of 215600 yuan/ton on May 1st. Stimulated by the news of collection and storage, demand has risen in the short term, overseas cobalt mining plants have reduced production, cobalt market supply expectations have decreased, supply reduction and demand have increased, and cobalt prices have stopped falling and rising in May.

Expected increase in demand

According to data released by the China Academy of Information and Communications Technology, in April 2024, the domestic market shipped 24.071 million mobile phones, a year-on-year increase of 28.8%. From January to April 2024, the domestic market shipped 91.486 million mobile phones, a year-on-year increase of 12.3%. The domestic mobile phone market is recovering, and the demand for cobalt in the domestic mobile phone market is expected to rebound.

IDC, an international data information company, pointed out that global smartphone shipments are expected to increase by 4.0% annually to 1.21 billion units in 2024. According to a report released by market research firm Canalys, global smartphone shipments increased by 11% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2024. The global smartphone market rebounded in the first quarter, and compared to the same period in 2023, the economic pressure and sluggish situation have improved. The increase in mobile phone shipments has led to a recovery in demand for cobalt in the global mobile phone market.

The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, the Ministry of Commerce, and the National Energy Administration jointly organized the 2024 New Energy Vehicles Going to the Countryside Campaign. From May to December 2024, support policies such as exchanging old cars for new ones and filling gaps in county-level charging and swapping facilities will be implemented to directly reach consumers with “real gold and silver” discounts. The sales of new energy vehicles are expected to increase, and the demand for cobalt in the market is expected to rise. In addition, the news of storage and recovery has stimulated confidence in the cobalt market, increasing the driving force for the rise of cobalt prices.

According to market insiders, the State Reserve intends to purchase approximately 15000 tons of cobalt to increase its inventory for new energy batteries and aerospace alloys. China purchased 2000 tons of cobalt as a strategic commodity reserve in 2020, and the scale of this collection far exceeds that of 2020. The demand for cobalt in the market has increased significantly in the short term, and the supply of cobalt in the market is insufficient in the short term, increasing the pressure on cobalt prices to rise.

Morocco’s largest mining company, cobalt mine, has reduced production

According to the data released by Managem, Morocco’s largest mining company, the output of Bou Azzer cobalt mine in the Atlas Mountains has decreased due to the downturn of cobalt prices in the international market. Due to the decline of cobalt output, the company’s revenue in the first quarter of 2024 will decline by 13% to 194 million dollars.

Overview and Outlook

According to data analysts from Business Society, with the stimulation of national policies and an increase in sales of new energy vehicles, coupled with the stimulation of storage and recovery news, the demand for cobalt in the market has increased, international cobalt production has decreased, and the supply of cobalt in the market has weakened. Overall, the cobalt market has seen a decrease in supply and an increase in demand, but the sustained increase in demand is insufficient. Although the supply has declined, overall oversupply remains. It is expected that cobalt prices will stabilize in the future.

Analysis of the Acetic Acid Industry Chain

From the May price rise and fall list of the acetic acid industry by Shengyi Society, it can be seen that acetic acid and downstream products are generally weak and consolidating. The rise in raw material methanol prices has increased the cost pressure on acetic acid, but due to poor demand, the acetic acid market has declined, with a 3.08% decrease within the month. The main downstream products, acetic anhydride, have experienced a significant decline, while the market for ethyl and butyl esters has narrowed.

Acetic acid: According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the price of acetic acid first rose and then fell in May, with a slight rebound at the end of the month. As of May 31, the price was 3150 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton compared to the beginning of the month’s acetic acid price of 3250 yuan/ton, and an overall decline of 3.08%. After the holiday, the price of acetic acid tends to rise strongly, leading to an increase in downstream demand for on-demand replenishment. The trading atmosphere on the market is improving, and coupled with the Tianjin Alkali Plant’s equipment failure and load reduction, enterprises have a strong intention to raise prices, resulting in a continuous increase in market trading; In late May, there was gradually resistance from downstream towards high priced sources of goods, and the market trading atmosphere was weak. At the same time, as the acetic acid plant resumed its initial load, manufacturers’ willingness to ship increased, and the focus of acetic acid trading continued to shift downwards; At the end of the month, some facilities in East China were shut down, and the company’s quotation slightly increased.

Acetic anhydride: The downstream acetic anhydride market rose first and then fell in May. On May 31st, the quotation was 5437.50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.33% from the beginning of the month’s price of 5625.00 yuan/ton. After the holiday, the upstream price of acetic acid increased slightly, and the cost support for acetic anhydride was positive. The demand for acetic anhydride remained stable, and the price of acetic anhydride rose accordingly; In the mid to late period, the price of acetic anhydride weakened and declined, with upstream acetic acid falling and cost support weakened. The acetic anhydride market was clearly bearish, and the price trend declined.

Ethyl acetate: In May, the market situation of ethyl acetate was sorted out and operated, with price trends rising first and then falling. According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, as of May 31, the average production price of ethyl acetate was 6290 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.48% compared to the price of 6260 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. After the holiday, the market price of ethyl acetate increased significantly, with the main upstream acetic acid market rising and raw material support being positive. The price of ethyl acetate was slightly stronger and increased; In the middle and late stages, as the upstream market weakened and cost support was insufficient, the upstream market transmitted to the terminal market, affecting downstream purchasing. Downstream acceptance of high priced ethyl acetate was generally low, and entry into the market for purchasing was limited. Under the game of supply and demand, the price of ethyl acetate decreased.

Butyl acetate: The domestic market for butyl acetate remained stable in May. There is currently no plan for equipment maintenance or production reduction in the butyl acetate unit. The market supply is stable within the month, and the quotations from butyl acetate enterprises are mostly stable in operation. In terms of raw materials, the price of acetic acid has fallen, resulting in weak support for butyl ester; The strong rise in the price of n-butanol has a positive impact on butyl acetate, leading to differentiated cost operations. The mentality of butyl acetate manufacturers is indecisive, and market trading prices fluctuate narrowly.

Future prospects of the acetic acid industry chain

According to analysts from Business Society, the current operation of acetic acid enterprises is stable, with sufficient market supply and no pressure on inventory. The main focus is on strong quotations, and downstream production is low, which has limited support for acetic acid. In addition, the downstream market is mostly affected by fluctuations in acetic acid prices. It is expected that the acetic acid industry chain will remain stagnant and consolidate in June, with narrow price fluctuations. In the future, specific attention will be paid to downstream replenishment situations.

The price of acetic anhydride fluctuated downward in May

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of May 31st, the price of acetic anhydride was 5437.50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.33% from the price of 5625.00 yuan/ton on May 1st.

In May, the acetic anhydride market operated weakly, with upstream acetic acid prices experiencing weak fluctuations and insufficient cost support for acetic anhydride; Acetic anhydride enterprises are operating steadily, with sufficient market supply. Downstream market entry is followed by demand, and market trading is limited. Acetic anhydride manufacturers are actively shipping, and the price of acetic anhydride follows the fluctuation of the upstream market.

Weak and volatile acetic acid market in May

According to the market analysis system for acetic acid products in Shengyishe, as of May 31st, the price was 3150 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.08% compared to the beginning of the month’s acetic acid price of 3250 yuan/ton. After the holiday, the downstream demand for on-demand replenishment increased, and the on-site trading atmosphere improved. In addition, the Tianjin Alkali Plant equipment failure reduced the burden, and the enterprise’s willingness to raise prices was strong, resulting in a strong increase in acetic acid prices; In late May, there was gradually resistance from downstream towards high priced sources of goods, and the market trading atmosphere was weak. At the same time, as the acetic acid plant resumed its initial load, manufacturers’ willingness to ship increased. In order to promote transactions, the focus of acetic acid trading shifted downwards; At the end of the month, some facilities in East China were shut down, and the company’s quotation slightly increased. The overall weak performance of the acetic acid market during the month has had a bearish impact on acetic anhydride.

Future prospects

According to the acetic acid analyst of Business Society, in terms of raw materials, the acetic acid market has slightly increased, and manufacturers have a clear intention of increasing prices, which is supported by the cost of acetic anhydride; In terms of supply, the acetic anhydride market has sufficient supply of goods, and manufacturers have a strong shipping sentiment; Follow up downstream as needed, and the market trading atmosphere is still acceptable. In the future, the cost of acetic anhydride is favorable, and downstream demand is stable. It is expected that the acetic anhydride market will consolidate and rise in the later period, and specific attention will be paid to changes in upstream prices.

This week (5.25-5.31), the domestic price of ethyl acetate remained stable. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of the 31st, the price of ethyl acetate remained at 6290 yuan/ton, and remained unchanged for the week. Due to insufficient upstream cost support, the supply and demand of ethyl acetate are relatively stable, and the market situation is running smoothly.

Market analysis: The ethyl acetate market remained stable and cautious this week. The utilization rate of ethyl acetate production capacity on the supply side is at a medium to low level, and the supplier’s inventory is under pressure, while the manufacturer maintains active shipments; On the raw material side, the price of acetic acid is weak and volatile, with insufficient cost support. The upstream market is transmitted to the terminal market, affecting downstream purchasing. Downstream buyers generally accept high priced goods, and they often follow up on demand when entering the market. Under the game of supply and demand, the price of ethyl acetate remains stable.

In the future, the upstream acetic acid of ethyl acetate has slightly increased, with good cost support and no pressure on supplier supply. Downstream purchases are made according to demand, and the market is optimistic. It is expected that the ethyl acetate market will consolidate and rise in the short term. It is recommended to pay attention to the price execution of raw material acetic acid and ethyl acetate manufacturers. At present, the mainstream transaction price in the market is between 6200-6370 yuan/ton.