1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Shengyishe, the price of caustic soda has rebounded after stopping its decline. On July 1st, the average market price in Shandong was around 794 yuan/ton, and on July 3rd, the average market price was 800 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 0.76%.

2、 Market analysis

According to the commodity analysis system of Business Society, the maintenance of equipment in the Shandong region has boosted the downstream market mentality and increased the enthusiasm for downstream procurement. The price of caustic soda in Hubei region is currently stable, with a mainstream market price of around 970-1050 yuan/ton for 32% ion exchange membrane caustic soda. The price of caustic soda in Shandong region has slightly increased, with a mainstream market price of around 760-850 yuan/ton for 32% ion exchange membrane caustic soda. The mainstream transaction in Jiangsu region is around 860-940 yuan/ton.

According to the price monitoring of Business Society, in the 26th week of 2024 (6.24-6.28), there were 0 products that rose, 2 products that fell, and 5 products that rose or fell to 0 in the chlor alkali industry price list. The main commodities falling are PVC (-1.59%) and caustic soda (-0.25%). The average increase and decrease this week is -0.26%.

Analysts from Business Society believe that in recent times, the price of caustic soda has stopped falling and rebounded, with prices rising. Some liquid alkali enterprises in Shandong have low inventory and decent shipments. Downstream demand for alumina is slightly better than in the early stage. The comprehensive supply-demand game predicts that caustic soda will maintain a stable and upward trend in the later stage, depending on downstream market demand.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the overall price of soda ash fell in June. The average market price of light soda ash at the beginning of the month was 2170 yuan/ton, and the average market price at the end of the month was around 2090 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 3.69% and an increase of 6.63% compared to the same period last year. On June 30th, the commodity index of light soda ash was 107.18, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 43.32% from the highest point in the cycle of 189.10 points (2021-11-07), and an increase of 69.72% from the lowest point of 63.15 points on November 18th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2011 to present)

2、 Market analysis

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the overall price of soda ash has been weak this month. On the supply side, the operating rate of soda ash is relatively high, the market inventory is sufficient, and the production and sales of enterprises are weak; On the demand side, the terminal market is weak, and downstream purchasing enthusiasm is not high. There is a lack of on-demand follow-up, and market trading is limited. Under the supply-demand game, the price of soda ash is weak and has been lowered. As of June 30, 2024, the prices of soda ash in East China have mainly stabilized, with mainstream market quotations for light soda ash around 2000-2250 yuan/ton. The prices of soda ash in Central China remain stable and watchful, with mainstream market quotations for light soda ash around 1900-2100 yuan/ton.

In terms of demand: According to the commodity analysis system of Business Society, the price of glass rose first and then fell this month. The average market price of glass at the beginning of the month was 19.86 yuan/square meter, and the average market price at the end of the month was 19.05 yuan/square meter, a decrease of 4.08%. The spot prices in the glass market are mainly weak, with downstream rigid demand for procurement, weak market demand, and a weak downward trend in price trends.

According to the price monitoring of Business Society, in the 26th week of 2024 (6.24-6.28), there were 0 products that rose, 2 products that fell, and 5 products that rose or fell to 0 in the chlor alkali industry price list. The main commodities falling are PVC (-1.59%) and caustic soda (-0.25%). The average increase and decrease this week is -0.26%.

Market forecast: According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyishe, the price of light soda ash has remained stable in the near future, with slight fluctuations in spot alkali plant equipment, and the supply side is still at a relatively high level. Downstream procurement is not active, and multi-dimensional support is needed to replenish inventory. The reduction in soda ash inventory is limited, and it is expected that soda ash may be weakly consolidated in the later stage, depending on downstream market demand.

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the recent weak consolidation of refined petroleum coke prices has led to a slight decline. As of June 24th, the price of refined petroleum coke in the Shandong market was 1482.75 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.34% from 1487.75 yuan/ton on June 17th.

Cost side: The crude oil market is fluctuating and rising. On the one hand, the tense geopolitical situation has resurfaced supply risks, and the supply and demand situation is favorable for the oil market. On the other hand, the Chinese economy continues to rebound and improve, coupled with the arrival of the peak oil consumption season in North America, strongly supporting oil prices. Multiple favorable factors have affected the upward trend of international oil prices, and the rate of change in crude oil remains positive.

Supply side: The recent weak consolidation of the local refining petroleum coke market is the main focus, and downstream purchases of petroleum coke are limited at the end of the month, with average transactions. Recently, imported petroleum coke has continued to arrive at ports, leading to an increase in domestic petroleum coke supply and overall weak support for the petroleum coke market.

On the demand side: As of June 27th, China has started operating 418 silicon metal furnaces, with an overall start-up rate of 57.03%, an increase of 17 furnaces compared to last week. The number of industrial silicon furnaces continues to rise, with significant new operations in Sichuan and Yunnan, and relatively stable operations in the northwest. At present, the demand for purchasing petroleum coke from metallic silicon is still acceptable, supporting the petroleum coke market.

In recent times, the overall market for medium sulfur calcined coke has remained stable, while the upstream refining petroleum coke market is weak. Currently, most enterprises are selling at a stable price, while downstream enterprises are mainly wait-and-see.

The recent consolidation of aluminum prices is mainly due to the expected increase in quantity on the supply side; Due to the steady resumption of production by Yunnan aluminum enterprises, the domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity is at a relatively high level, with a monthly month on month increase of 300000 tons. On the other hand, on the demand side, there is a downward trend in the operating rate of aluminum rods. Coupled with market demand, there are not many new orders for photovoltaic modules and building profiles, which are lower than expected. Downstream aluminum carbon enterprises maintain a rigid demand for petroleum coke procurement.

Market forecast: Currently, there is sufficient supply of petroleum coke in China, with high port inventories and limited downstream demand. Demand based procurement is the main focus, and it is expected that the local refining petroleum coke market will consolidate in the near future.

This week (6.24-6.28), the domestic price of ethyl acetate first fell and then stabilized. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of the 28th, the price of ethyl acetate was 6250 yuan/ton, which was 0.11% lower than the price of 6256.67 yuan/ton on June 24th during the week. The main reason is the decline in upstream prices and the negative impact on cost, resulting in a downward trend in the ethyl acetate market.

Market analysis: The ethyl acetate market has been weak and consolidating this week. On the supply side, the utilization rate of ethyl acetate production capacity is low, and there is no pressure on the supplier’s inventory, supporting the strong operation of ethyl acetate prices; On the raw material side, the price of acetic acid continues to decline, and cost support is weak. The upstream market is transmitted to the terminal market, affecting downstream purchasing. The entry into the market requires follow-up, and under the supply-demand game, the price of ethyl acetate has slightly decreased with the upstream market this week.

In the future, the upstream acetic acid price of ethyl acetate is continuously decreasing, and the cost side is negatively affected. The production and sales of ethyl acetate suppliers are relatively balanced, but downstream procurement is on demand. Coupled with the unstable market mentality affected by raw materials, it is expected that the ethyl acetate market may be weaker than operation in the later period. Please pay attention to the price execution of raw material acetic acid and ethyl acetate manufacturers. At present, the mainstream transaction price in the market is between 6100-6350 yuan/ton.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the price of soda ash continued to decline in mid to late June. As of June 27th, the market average price was 2090 yuan/ton. Compared with the market average price of 2170 yuan/ton on June 11th, the price decreased by 3.69% and increased by 6.63% compared to the same period last year. On June 27th, the commodity index of light soda ash was 107.18, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 43.32% from the highest point in the cycle of 189.10 points (2021-11-07), and an increase of 69.72% from the lowest point of 63.15 points on November 18, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2011 to present)

2、 Market analysis

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyishe, the price of soda ash was weak and declined in the middle and late stages. Downstream purchasing enthusiasm is not high, with more market entry and on-demand follow-up, limited market trading, poor enterprise shipments, continuous accumulation of inventory, oversupply and mutual love, and continuous decline in soda ash prices. As of June 27, 2024, the prices of soda ash in East China have mainly stabilized, with mainstream market quotations for light soda ash around 2000-2250 yuan/ton. The prices of soda ash in Central China have also stabilized, with mainstream market quotations for light soda ash around 1900-2100 yuan/ton.

In terms of demand: According to the commodity analysis system of Business Society, glass prices first rose and then fell in the middle and late stages. On June 11th, the market average price was 20.20 yuan/square meter, and on June 27th, the market average price was 19.82 yuan/square meter, with a price drop of 1.88%. Downstream procurement of glass is on demand, with limited market support.

According to the price monitoring of Business Society, in the 25th week of 2024 (6.17-6.21), there were 0 products that rose, 4 products that fell, and 3 products that rose or fell to 0 on the chlor alkali industry price list. The main commodities falling include PVC (-1.28%), light soda ash (-0.71%), and baking soda (-0.51%). The average increase and decrease this week is -0.43%..

According to the commodity analysis system of Business Society, the current price of pure alkali is temporarily stable, with slight fluctuations in spot alkali plant equipment, and a high utilization rate of supply capacity. Downstream demand is weak, and multi-dimensional support is needed to replenish inventory. Overall, it is expected that soda ash may be weakly consolidated in the later stage, depending on downstream market demand.

Recently (6.17-6.26), the domestic price of ethyl acetate has slightly decreased. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of the 26th, the price of ethyl acetate remained at 6250 yuan/ton, with a price decline of 0.53% during the cycle. Due to the decrease in upstream prices and insufficient cost support, the market for ethyl acetate has followed suit.

Market analysis: The ethyl acetate market has been weak and downward in recent times. On the supply side, the utilization rate of ethyl acetate production capacity is at a medium to low level, the supplier’s inventory is under pressure, and the manufacturer maintains shipment; On the raw material side, the price of acetic acid is weak and declining, with insufficient cost support. The upstream market is transmitted to the terminal market, affecting downstream purchasing. Downstream acceptance of high priced goods is generally high, and entry into the market requires purchasing. Under the supply-demand game, the price of ethyl acetate has slightly decreased.

In the future, the upstream acetic acid price of ethyl acetate has increased, with insufficient cost support. The production and sales of suppliers are relatively balanced, and the downstream follows up on demand. The market is mainly wait-and-see, and it is expected that the ethyl acetate market will remain stable in the short term. Specific attention will be paid to the implementation of prices for raw material acetic acid and ethyl acetate manufacturers. At present, the mainstream transaction price in the market is between 6100-6350 yuan/ton.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of June 25th, the average price of epoxy propane in the domestic market was referenced at 8932.50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.75% compared to last Thursday (June 20th).

Recently, the market for epoxy propane has declined. Recently, the price of propylene raw materials has slightly rebounded after a decline, while the price of liquid chlorine raw materials has fluctuated, providing some support for the cost side. Part of the equipment on the supply side fluctuates, and the demand side performs mediocrely. Downstream customers tend to adopt a wait-and-see attitude and follow the market with caution in procurement. Holders are under pressure to ship, resulting in a downward trend in epoxy propane prices.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of raw material propylene has slightly rebounded after a recent decline, which still provides support for the epoxy propane market.

Future Market Forecast:

The epoxy propane analyst from Business Society believes that the current cost support is still acceptable, and the supply side pressure is average. Downstream demand is mainly buying, and the market has a strong wait-and-see atmosphere. It is expected that in the short term, the epoxy propane market may remain stagnant and operate, and more attention should be paid to market news guidance.

1、 Price trend

According to data monitored by Business Society, as of June 24th, the average price quoted by domestic premium DMF enterprises was 4360 yuan/ton. The DMF market was mainly weak, with prices slightly dropping compared to the previous day. Currently, the market price is around 4400 yuan/ton, and overall market demand is weak, with a cold trading atmosphere

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic PTA spot market fell first and then rose this week (June 17-21). As of June 21, the average PTA market price in East China was 5976 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.34% compared to the beginning of the week.

Starting from late June, there are plans to restart multiple sets of PTA devices, and the market’s expectation of abundant PTA supply continues to increase. There is a possibility of further reduction in downstream polyester production, which strengthens the pressure of PTA oversupply and concerns about PTA demand. With the weakening of supply and demand, the PTA market fell at the beginning of the week. However, during the traditional peak demand season, coupled with OPEC+nurturing oil prices, and the ongoing tension in the Middle East, crude oil continues to rebound, and costs still provide strong support for PTA. In addition, with the significant increase in polyester sales and slight adjustments in production, the demand for PTA is relatively stable, resulting in a slight rebound in prices.

Looking ahead to the future, PTA will restart its production capacity at the end of the month, with plans to restart over 7 million tons of maintenance equipment next week, which may enter the stage of accumulating inventory. The current operating rate of the PTA industry is around 88%, and with the gradual restart of the equipment, the operating rate will further increase.

EIA data shows that US crude oil inventories decreased by 2.55 million barrels last week, and finished oil products were also presented to the Kugge Bureau. Combined with the tense geopolitical situation in the Middle East, international crude oil futures prices continue to strengthen. As of June 20th, the settlement price of the US WTI crude oil futures main contract was $81.29 per barrel, and the settlement price of Brent crude oil futures main contract was $85.71 per barrel. At present, geopolitical instability still has a certain positive impact on oil prices. The peak driving season in North America will stimulate gasoline demand, but the continued rise of crude oil remains to be observed. Overall, high crude oil prices are mainly volatile.

The demand for downstream polyester products has rebounded in stages, with industry production slightly rising to over 88%. The terminal textile market is sluggish, with some weaving and texturing factories planning to shut down for vacation after consuming raw materials. It is expected that downstream weaving and texturing factories will start operating or decline next week. At the end of the month, as the downstream replenishment cycle approaches, some downstream factories may stock up appropriately next week.

Business Society analysts believe that the restart of PTA devices may continue to increase production, limiting the increase in PTA prices. We still need to pay attention to the implementation of downstream polyester factories reducing production and changes in crude oil prices.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic PTA spot market has recently stopped falling and rebounded. As of June 20th, the average PTA market price in East China was 5968 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.04% compared to the 18th. The warm atmosphere in the commodity market has triggered resonance, and in addition, an unplanned short stop of a 1.2 million ton PTA plant in the northwest has led to an increase in the PTA market.

In the future, in terms of PTA supply, multiple sets of PTA devices will restart in late June. Among them, a set of 2.5 million ton PTA devices in East China is planned to restart on June 21, a set of 1.5 million ton PTA devices is planned to restart on June 23, and a set of 2.5 million ton PTA devices in South China is planned to restart on June 25. PTA production may increase, limiting price increases.

Recently, the crude oil market has been volatile and rising, and the tense geopolitical situation has resurfaced supply risks. The supply and demand situation is favorable for the oil market. In addition, with the continuous recovery of the Chinese economy and the peak oil consumption season in North America, multiple favorable factors support the upward trend of international oil prices. As of June 19th, the settlement price of Brent crude oil futures main contract was reported at $85.07 per barrel. Short term fluctuations in crude oil prices are the main factor, and support for PTA costs is still ongoing.

In the downstream polyester industry, some polyester products have been promoted in large quantities with significant effects, and the operating rate has slightly increased to over 88%. The market believes that the probability of polyester factories reducing production is reduced, so the demand side is relatively stable. The operating rate of weaving machines in Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces is currently stable at around 71%. Due to factors such as high temperatures and off-season, some downstream factories may reduce their load operations, resulting in a decrease in terminal demand.

Overall, analysts from Business Society believe that the PTA maintenance equipment will be restarted next week, which will further increase domestic PTA production. It is still necessary to pay attention to whether polyester factories will continue to reduce production and changes in PTA demand. Short term PTA is expected to lack bullish guidance and prices may slightly decline.