According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the recent weak consolidation of refined petroleum coke prices has led to a slight decline. As of June 24th, the price of refined petroleum coke in the Shandong market was 1482.75 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.34% from 1487.75 yuan/ton on June 17th.

Cost side: The crude oil market is fluctuating and rising. On the one hand, the tense geopolitical situation has resurfaced supply risks, and the supply and demand situation is favorable for the oil market. On the other hand, the Chinese economy continues to rebound and improve, coupled with the arrival of the peak oil consumption season in North America, strongly supporting oil prices. Multiple favorable factors have affected the upward trend of international oil prices, and the rate of change in crude oil remains positive.

Supply side: The recent weak consolidation of the local refining petroleum coke market is the main focus, and downstream purchases of petroleum coke are limited at the end of the month, with average transactions. Recently, imported petroleum coke has continued to arrive at ports, leading to an increase in domestic petroleum coke supply and overall weak support for the petroleum coke market.

On the demand side: As of June 27th, China has started operating 418 silicon metal furnaces, with an overall start-up rate of 57.03%, an increase of 17 furnaces compared to last week. The number of industrial silicon furnaces continues to rise, with significant new operations in Sichuan and Yunnan, and relatively stable operations in the northwest. At present, the demand for purchasing petroleum coke from metallic silicon is still acceptable, supporting the petroleum coke market.

In recent times, the overall market for medium sulfur calcined coke has remained stable, while the upstream refining petroleum coke market is weak. Currently, most enterprises are selling at a stable price, while downstream enterprises are mainly wait-and-see.

The recent consolidation of aluminum prices is mainly due to the expected increase in quantity on the supply side; Due to the steady resumption of production by Yunnan aluminum enterprises, the domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity is at a relatively high level, with a monthly month on month increase of 300000 tons. On the other hand, on the demand side, there is a downward trend in the operating rate of aluminum rods. Coupled with market demand, there are not many new orders for photovoltaic modules and building profiles, which are lower than expected. Downstream aluminum carbon enterprises maintain a rigid demand for petroleum coke procurement.

Market forecast: Currently, there is sufficient supply of petroleum coke in China, with high port inventories and limited downstream demand. Demand based procurement is the main focus, and it is expected that the local refining petroleum coke market will consolidate in the near future.

This week (6.24-6.28), the domestic price of ethyl acetate first fell and then stabilized. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of the 28th, the price of ethyl acetate was 6250 yuan/ton, which was 0.11% lower than the price of 6256.67 yuan/ton on June 24th during the week. The main reason is the decline in upstream prices and the negative impact on cost, resulting in a downward trend in the ethyl acetate market.

Market analysis: The ethyl acetate market has been weak and consolidating this week. On the supply side, the utilization rate of ethyl acetate production capacity is low, and there is no pressure on the supplier’s inventory, supporting the strong operation of ethyl acetate prices; On the raw material side, the price of acetic acid continues to decline, and cost support is weak. The upstream market is transmitted to the terminal market, affecting downstream purchasing. The entry into the market requires follow-up, and under the supply-demand game, the price of ethyl acetate has slightly decreased with the upstream market this week.

In the future, the upstream acetic acid price of ethyl acetate is continuously decreasing, and the cost side is negatively affected. The production and sales of ethyl acetate suppliers are relatively balanced, but downstream procurement is on demand. Coupled with the unstable market mentality affected by raw materials, it is expected that the ethyl acetate market may be weaker than operation in the later period. Please pay attention to the price execution of raw material acetic acid and ethyl acetate manufacturers. At present, the mainstream transaction price in the market is between 6100-6350 yuan/ton.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the price of soda ash continued to decline in mid to late June. As of June 27th, the market average price was 2090 yuan/ton. Compared with the market average price of 2170 yuan/ton on June 11th, the price decreased by 3.69% and increased by 6.63% compared to the same period last year. On June 27th, the commodity index of light soda ash was 107.18, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 43.32% from the highest point in the cycle of 189.10 points (2021-11-07), and an increase of 69.72% from the lowest point of 63.15 points on November 18, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2011 to present)

2、 Market analysis

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyishe, the price of soda ash was weak and declined in the middle and late stages. Downstream purchasing enthusiasm is not high, with more market entry and on-demand follow-up, limited market trading, poor enterprise shipments, continuous accumulation of inventory, oversupply and mutual love, and continuous decline in soda ash prices. As of June 27, 2024, the prices of soda ash in East China have mainly stabilized, with mainstream market quotations for light soda ash around 2000-2250 yuan/ton. The prices of soda ash in Central China have also stabilized, with mainstream market quotations for light soda ash around 1900-2100 yuan/ton.

In terms of demand: According to the commodity analysis system of Business Society, glass prices first rose and then fell in the middle and late stages. On June 11th, the market average price was 20.20 yuan/square meter, and on June 27th, the market average price was 19.82 yuan/square meter, with a price drop of 1.88%. Downstream procurement of glass is on demand, with limited market support.

According to the price monitoring of Business Society, in the 25th week of 2024 (6.17-6.21), there were 0 products that rose, 4 products that fell, and 3 products that rose or fell to 0 on the chlor alkali industry price list. The main commodities falling include PVC (-1.28%), light soda ash (-0.71%), and baking soda (-0.51%). The average increase and decrease this week is -0.43%..

According to the commodity analysis system of Business Society, the current price of pure alkali is temporarily stable, with slight fluctuations in spot alkali plant equipment, and a high utilization rate of supply capacity. Downstream demand is weak, and multi-dimensional support is needed to replenish inventory. Overall, it is expected that soda ash may be weakly consolidated in the later stage, depending on downstream market demand.

Recently (6.17-6.26), the domestic price of ethyl acetate has slightly decreased. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of the 26th, the price of ethyl acetate remained at 6250 yuan/ton, with a price decline of 0.53% during the cycle. Due to the decrease in upstream prices and insufficient cost support, the market for ethyl acetate has followed suit.

Market analysis: The ethyl acetate market has been weak and downward in recent times. On the supply side, the utilization rate of ethyl acetate production capacity is at a medium to low level, the supplier’s inventory is under pressure, and the manufacturer maintains shipment; On the raw material side, the price of acetic acid is weak and declining, with insufficient cost support. The upstream market is transmitted to the terminal market, affecting downstream purchasing. Downstream acceptance of high priced goods is generally high, and entry into the market requires purchasing. Under the supply-demand game, the price of ethyl acetate has slightly decreased.

In the future, the upstream acetic acid price of ethyl acetate has increased, with insufficient cost support. The production and sales of suppliers are relatively balanced, and the downstream follows up on demand. The market is mainly wait-and-see, and it is expected that the ethyl acetate market will remain stable in the short term. Specific attention will be paid to the implementation of prices for raw material acetic acid and ethyl acetate manufacturers. At present, the mainstream transaction price in the market is between 6100-6350 yuan/ton.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of June 25th, the average price of epoxy propane in the domestic market was referenced at 8932.50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.75% compared to last Thursday (June 20th).

Recently, the market for epoxy propane has declined. Recently, the price of propylene raw materials has slightly rebounded after a decline, while the price of liquid chlorine raw materials has fluctuated, providing some support for the cost side. Part of the equipment on the supply side fluctuates, and the demand side performs mediocrely. Downstream customers tend to adopt a wait-and-see attitude and follow the market with caution in procurement. Holders are under pressure to ship, resulting in a downward trend in epoxy propane prices.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of raw material propylene has slightly rebounded after a recent decline, which still provides support for the epoxy propane market.

Future Market Forecast:

The epoxy propane analyst from Business Society believes that the current cost support is still acceptable, and the supply side pressure is average. Downstream demand is mainly buying, and the market has a strong wait-and-see atmosphere. It is expected that in the short term, the epoxy propane market may remain stagnant and operate, and more attention should be paid to market news guidance.

1、 Price trend

According to data monitored by Business Society, as of June 24th, the average price quoted by domestic premium DMF enterprises was 4360 yuan/ton. The DMF market was mainly weak, with prices slightly dropping compared to the previous day. Currently, the market price is around 4400 yuan/ton, and overall market demand is weak, with a cold trading atmosphere

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic PTA spot market fell first and then rose this week (June 17-21). As of June 21, the average PTA market price in East China was 5976 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.34% compared to the beginning of the week.

Starting from late June, there are plans to restart multiple sets of PTA devices, and the market’s expectation of abundant PTA supply continues to increase. There is a possibility of further reduction in downstream polyester production, which strengthens the pressure of PTA oversupply and concerns about PTA demand. With the weakening of supply and demand, the PTA market fell at the beginning of the week. However, during the traditional peak demand season, coupled with OPEC+nurturing oil prices, and the ongoing tension in the Middle East, crude oil continues to rebound, and costs still provide strong support for PTA. In addition, with the significant increase in polyester sales and slight adjustments in production, the demand for PTA is relatively stable, resulting in a slight rebound in prices.

Looking ahead to the future, PTA will restart its production capacity at the end of the month, with plans to restart over 7 million tons of maintenance equipment next week, which may enter the stage of accumulating inventory. The current operating rate of the PTA industry is around 88%, and with the gradual restart of the equipment, the operating rate will further increase.

EIA data shows that US crude oil inventories decreased by 2.55 million barrels last week, and finished oil products were also presented to the Kugge Bureau. Combined with the tense geopolitical situation in the Middle East, international crude oil futures prices continue to strengthen. As of June 20th, the settlement price of the US WTI crude oil futures main contract was $81.29 per barrel, and the settlement price of Brent crude oil futures main contract was $85.71 per barrel. At present, geopolitical instability still has a certain positive impact on oil prices. The peak driving season in North America will stimulate gasoline demand, but the continued rise of crude oil remains to be observed. Overall, high crude oil prices are mainly volatile.

The demand for downstream polyester products has rebounded in stages, with industry production slightly rising to over 88%. The terminal textile market is sluggish, with some weaving and texturing factories planning to shut down for vacation after consuming raw materials. It is expected that downstream weaving and texturing factories will start operating or decline next week. At the end of the month, as the downstream replenishment cycle approaches, some downstream factories may stock up appropriately next week.

Business Society analysts believe that the restart of PTA devices may continue to increase production, limiting the increase in PTA prices. We still need to pay attention to the implementation of downstream polyester factories reducing production and changes in crude oil prices.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic PTA spot market has recently stopped falling and rebounded. As of June 20th, the average PTA market price in East China was 5968 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.04% compared to the 18th. The warm atmosphere in the commodity market has triggered resonance, and in addition, an unplanned short stop of a 1.2 million ton PTA plant in the northwest has led to an increase in the PTA market.

In the future, in terms of PTA supply, multiple sets of PTA devices will restart in late June. Among them, a set of 2.5 million ton PTA devices in East China is planned to restart on June 21, a set of 1.5 million ton PTA devices is planned to restart on June 23, and a set of 2.5 million ton PTA devices in South China is planned to restart on June 25. PTA production may increase, limiting price increases.

Recently, the crude oil market has been volatile and rising, and the tense geopolitical situation has resurfaced supply risks. The supply and demand situation is favorable for the oil market. In addition, with the continuous recovery of the Chinese economy and the peak oil consumption season in North America, multiple favorable factors support the upward trend of international oil prices. As of June 19th, the settlement price of Brent crude oil futures main contract was reported at $85.07 per barrel. Short term fluctuations in crude oil prices are the main factor, and support for PTA costs is still ongoing.

In the downstream polyester industry, some polyester products have been promoted in large quantities with significant effects, and the operating rate has slightly increased to over 88%. The market believes that the probability of polyester factories reducing production is reduced, so the demand side is relatively stable. The operating rate of weaving machines in Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces is currently stable at around 71%. Due to factors such as high temperatures and off-season, some downstream factories may reduce their load operations, resulting in a decrease in terminal demand.

Overall, analysts from Business Society believe that the PTA maintenance equipment will be restarted next week, which will further increase domestic PTA production. It is still necessary to pay attention to whether polyester factories will continue to reduce production and changes in PTA demand. Short term PTA is expected to lack bullish guidance and prices may slightly decline.

Since June, the butadiene rubber market has seen a significant increase. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of June 18th, the price of butadiene rubber in the East China region was 15570 yuan/ton, an increase of 10.50% from 14090 yuan/ton in early June. The price of raw material butadiene has significantly increased, and the cost support for butadiene rubber is strong; The production of butadiene rubber continues to remain low; Downstream tire production has recently declined, with weak purchases of butadiene rubber and high levels of butadiene futures, driving a strong market atmosphere.

Since June, the price of butadiene has risen significantly, with strong support for the cost of butadiene rubber. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of June 18th, the price of butadiene was 13650 yuan/ton, an increase of 14.95% from 11875 yuan/ton in early June.

Since June, the production of domestic butadiene rubber plants has continued to remain at a low level, and as of June 18th, the production of domestic butadiene rubber has been around 5.3%.

Demand side: Since mid June, downstream tire production has significantly decreased, and in the short term, demand will face some drag on the butadiene rubber market. As of June 14th, the operating load of semi steel tires in domestic tire enterprises is around 75%; The operating load of all steel tires for tire enterprises in Shandong region is about 5.2%.

Market forecast: From a fundamental perspective, analysts from Business Society believe that the price of raw material butadiene has significantly increased, and the cost support for butadiene rubber is strong; The production of butadiene rubber remains low, and the market supply is tight; At present, downstream tire companies have seen a significant decline in production, which has dragged down the production of butadiene rubber. Overall, the butadiene rubber market has remained strong in the near future under the support of cost and low production. We still need to pay attention to the downstream stocking situation in the future.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, from June 10th to 17th, the domestic ethanol price increased from 6007 yuan/ton to 6032 yuan/ton, with a weekly price increase of 0.42%, a month on month decrease of 0.29%, and a year-on-year decrease of 7.26%. The price of raw corn is pushing up, and the cost of grain for enterprises is increasing, providing price support. Due to increased equipment maintenance in some regions, there has been a situation of spot installation, resulting in a tight supply. However, the trend of oversupply has continued, with flat trading volume and narrow fluctuations in the overall price of domestic ethanol market.

On the cost side, currently available spot inventory is low, breeding profits are increasing, supply is tightening, and the overall domestic corn market is operating strongly. The cost of ethanol is influenced by favorable factors.

On the supply side, there are significant differences in the operating rates of production enterprises in different regions; Less than 40% of construction in East China has started; About 80% of the construction in Northeast China has started; The operating rate in southern and southwestern regions is about 20%. Heilongjiang Hongzhan Huanan Factory was shut down for maintenance in mid June, Guangxi Jinyuan was shut down for full line maintenance on June 12, Jilin Fuel Ethanol underwent maintenance in early July, Wanli Runda was shut down for maintenance in mid July, and Guotou Yushu Factory underwent maintenance in mid to late July. The supply side of ethanol is influenced by favorable factors.

On the demand side, Baijiu is purchased in the off-season, and the demand is weak; The downstream construction of ethyl acetate rose slightly. After the Dragon Boat Festival, ethyl acetate enterprises had the expectation of centralized procurement; The impact of compliance policies on ethanol gasoline refining is gradually weakening, and major purchasing companies have resumed procurement operations. In addition, the usage rate of in vehicle air conditioning will increase from June, leading to a rebound in gasoline demand. The short-term demand for ethanol is influenced by favorable factors.

The future market forecast shows that the current cost side and supply side are supported by favorable factors, and Baijiu and chemical procurement are not good. Supply and demand game. Ethanol analysts from Business Society predict that the short-term domestic ethanol market will mainly consolidate.