1、 Price trend

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of soda ash has slightly decreased this week. On July 19th, the average market price of soda ash was 1936 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.02% compared to the price of 1956 yuan/ton on July 12th, and a decrease of 3.01% compared to the beginning of the month. On July 19th, the light soda ash commodity index was 100.31, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 46.95% from the cycle’s highest point of 189.10 points (2021-11-07), and an increase of 58.84% from the lowest point of 63.15 points on November 18, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to present).

2、 Market analysis

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the soda ash market has been consolidating and declining this week. On the supply side, the capacity utilization rate has slightly decreased this week, but it is still at a high level. The production of soda ash is high, and the market inventory is sufficient; On the demand side, the terminal market continues to operate weakly, downstream enthusiasm is not high, and on-demand follow-up is the main focus. The market trading atmosphere is weak, and enterprise shipments are limited. Under the supply-demand game, the price of soda ash fluctuates slightly and decreases. As of July 19th, the price of soda ash in East China remained stable, with the mainstream market price for light soda ash ranging from 1900-2150 yuan/ton. The price of soda ash in Central China remained stable, with the mainstream market price for light soda ash ranging from 1750-2000 yuan/ton.

On the demand side: According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, glass prices continue to decline. As of July 19th, the market average price was 17.84 yuan/square meter, a decrease of 3.25% compared to the market average price of 18.44 yuan/square meter on July 12th. Downstream demand for glass is weak, with on-demand procurement leading to a weak glass price trend.

According to the price monitoring of Shengyi Society, in the 29th week of 2024 (7.15-7.19), there were 0 products that rose, 4 products that fell, and 3 products that rose or fell zero in the chlor alkali industry price list. The main commodities experiencing a decline are: calcium carbide (-1.84%), light soda ash (-1.02%), baking soda (-0.90%), and PVC (-0.61%).

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of soda ash is in a stalemate and consolidation, with a high operating rate of spot alkali plants and sufficient market supply. Downstream demand is weak, and multidimensional demand for rigid needs is replenished. Soda ash inventory is generally depleted, and it is expected that soda ash will operate weakly in the later stage, depending on downstream market demand.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price trend of heavy rare earths in the domestic market has significantly declined since July. On July 17th, the rare earth index was 355 points, a decrease of 1 point from yesterday, a decrease of 64.75% from the highest point of 1007 points during the cycle (2022-02-24), and an increase of 31.00% from the lowest point of 271 points on September 13, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to present)

The prices of dysprosium oxide, dysprosium ferroalloy, and dysprosium metal in China have continued to decline. As of the 18th, the price of dysprosium oxide was 1.65 million yuan/ton, a decrease of 10.8%; The price of dysprosium ferroalloy is 1.65 million yuan/ton, a decrease of 9.34% in price; The price of dysprosium metal is 2.25 million yuan/ton, with a price trend decline of 7.98%; The domestic price of terbium series has decreased, with the domestic price of terbium oxide at 5.175 million yuan/ton and the price of metallic terbium at 6.4 million yuan/ton.

In July, the price trend of heavy rare earth metals in the market declined significantly. Due to weak terminal demand, market activity gradually cooled down, and trading remained cautious. The metal market has remained relatively calm, with some metal merchants actively lowering prices to attract buyers. In Jiangxi and Guangxi regions, the operating rates of some separated enterprises have remained low, and the production of heavy rare earths has not changed much; In addition, some magnetic material companies are not actively purchasing, resulting in a significant decline in the price trend of heavy rare earths.

In June 2024, the production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 1.003 million and 1.049 million respectively, an increase of 28.1% and 30.1% year-on-year. From January to June, the production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 4.929 million and 4.944 million respectively, an increase of 30.1% and 32% year-on-year. The production and sales of new energy vehicles continue to rise, providing support for the rare earth market.

After years of governance, the domestic rare earth industry has gradually formed a supply pattern dominated by large groups and relatively concentrated raw materials. With the continuous development of the foreign rare earth industry, China’s rare earth production share has declined from 90% to 70%. Recently, two domestic departments released the first batch of rare earth mining indicators for 2024, but the growth rate has slowed down. In addition, China’s rare earth export volume in June 2024 was 4828.7 tons, a decrease of 22.3% from May’s export volume of 6217 tons. The reduction in exports has to some extent suppressed the domestic rare earth market prices, and the prices of heavy rare earths continue to decline.

Market forecast: Downstream magnetic material companies are not actively ordering in the near future, with quiet inquiries and strong bearish sentiment in the market. It is expected that the market prices of heavy rare earths will continue to decline in the short term.

The plasticizer DOP industry chain is declining

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the DOP industry chain market first rose and then fell in July. This week, the DOP industry chain market has continued to decline, with three consecutive declines since July 15th. As of July 17th, the price of plasticizer DOP was 9700 yuan/ton, a fluctuating decrease of 2.14% compared to the DOP price of 9912.50 yuan/ton on July 12th; On July 17th, the price of isooctanol was 9440 yuan/ton, which fluctuated and fell by 3.08% compared to the price of 9740 yuan/ton on July 12th.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the prices of major products in the DOP industry chain fluctuated and fell in July. As of July 17th, the price of upstream phthalic anhydride has slightly increased by 0.47%, the price of isooctanol has decreased by 2.78%, and the price of plasticizer DOP has decreased by 1.65%.

The price of raw material isooctanol continues to decline

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of July 17th, the price of isooctanol was 9440 yuan/ton, a fluctuating decrease of 3.08% compared to the price of 9740 yuan/ton on July 12th; Compared to the price of 9710 yuan/ton on July 1st at the beginning of the month, the price of isooctanol fluctuated and fell by 2.78%. In July, the isooctanol market first rose and then fell. This week, the price of isooctanol fluctuated and fell. Downstream factories purchased according to demand, and the plasticizer market declined. Enterprises had poor enthusiasm for raw material procurement, and Shandong large factories sold at a discount. The market transaction center shifted downwards, and there was significant downward pressure on isooctanol prices.

The price of raw material phthalic anhydride is stabilizing

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price trend of phthalic anhydride in the domestic phthalic anhydride market has been weak and stable this week. As of July 17th, the price of phthalic anhydride in the phthalic anhydride process was 8087.50 yuan/ton, which remained stable compared to the price of 8087.50 yuan/ton on July 8th; Compared to July 1st, the price of phthalic anhydride fluctuated and rose by 0.47% to 8050 yuan/ton. Domestic neighboring phthalic anhydride is priced at 7900-8100 yuan/ton before leaving the factory, while domestic naphthalene phthalic anhydride is priced at 7450-7550 yuan/ton before leaving the factory. The domestic production rate of phthalic anhydride is around 60%, and the spot supply of phthalic anhydride is stable. The sales situation of phthalic anhydride manufacturers is average, and the price of industrial naphthalene has fluctuated slightly. The naphthalene based phthalic anhydride market has fluctuated and fallen, while the ortho benzene market is temporarily stable. The ortho benzene based phthalic anhydride market is stabilizing. The phthalic anhydride market is weak and stabilizing, and there is still downward pressure on the phthalic anhydride market.

The market for plasticizer DOP has declined

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of July 17th, the price of plasticizer DOP was 9700 yuan/ton, a fluctuating decrease of 2.14% compared to the DOP price of 9912.50 yuan/ton on July 12th; Compared to July 8th, the price of 10000 yuan/ton fluctuated and fell by 3.00%. The market for phthalic anhydride, a raw material for plasticizers, has fluctuated and stabilized, while the price of isooctanol has fluctuated and fallen. The cost of plasticizers has decreased, and the price of plasticizers has fluctuated and fallen. With the arrival of the hot and rainy season, PVC has entered a seasonal off-season in the industry, with both domestic demand off-season and export reduction coexisting. Downstream manufacturers are in the off-season, with low production levels and weak follow-up on actual transactions. The demand for plasticizers is poor, and there is significant downward pressure on plasticizers.

Future expectations

The data analyst of plasticizer products believes that the price of raw material isooctanol has fluctuated and fallen, the price of phthalic anhydride has fluctuated and stabilized, and the cost of plasticizer DOP has decreased; The PVC market is in the off-season, with weak follow-up on actual sales, poor demand for plasticizers, and insufficient support for plasticizer demand. In the future, with the decrease in upstream raw material costs and the off-season of downstream demand, the downward pressure on plasticizers is increasing, and the price of the DOP industry chain for plasticizers is weakly consolidating.

1、 Price trend

Taking the sulfuric acid method gold red stone titanium dioxide with a large volume of goods in the domestic market as an example, according to data monitoring by Business Society, the domestic titanium dioxide market stabilized and remained cautious in the first half of July. On July 1st, the average price of titanium dioxide was 15783.33 yuan/ton, and on July 15th, the average price of titanium dioxide was 15783.33 yuan/ton, which remained unchanged.

2、 Market analysis

In the first half of July, the domestic titanium dioxide market stabilized and remained on the sidelines. In July, the prices of raw materials such as titanium concentrate and sulfuric acid remained consistently firm. Due to the impact of raw materials, the production cost of titanium dioxide is under great pressure. In addition, due to various reasons such as power grid maintenance, some enterprises have chosen to limit or suspend production, while others have delayed their maintenance plans until August. The market supply has been greatly alleviated, and the supply of some brands is limited. The prices of scarce brands in the market have been slightly increased, and the manufacturer’s quotations are mainly stable. As of now, the domestic quotation for sulfuric acid based pyrite type titanium dioxide is mostly between 15300-16200 yuan/ton; The quotation for rutile titanium dioxide is around 14500-15000 yuan/ton. The actual transaction price is negotiable.

In terms of titanium concentrate, the market price of titanium concentrate in the Panxi region has remained strong and upward. Affected by the supply of raw materials, mining enterprises in the Panxi region have insufficient production, the market spot is tight, and the price of titanium ore is running at a high level. Downstream titanium dioxide enterprises have a general market situation and poor market demand, so they are more cautious about trading in titanium concentrate and cautious in market procurement. As of now, the price of 38-42 grade titanium ore without tax is around 1580-1600 yuan/ton, 46 grade 10 titanium concentrate without tax is around 2200-2250 yuan/ton, and 47 grade 20 titanium concentrate is around 2500-2630 yuan/ton. In the short term, the price of Panxi titanium concentrate continues to operate at a high level, and the specific transaction price will be discussed on a case by case basis.

Internationally, according to the China Trade Remedy Information Network, the European Commission issued a notice on July 11, 2024, making preliminary anti-dumping rulings on titanium dioxide originating in China, imposing temporary anti-dumping duties ranging from 14.4% to 39.7% on the products involved. In addition, the current surge in ocean freight prices has weakened the situation of foreign trade orders compared to before, and the pressure on foreign trade exports has increased.

3、 Future forecast

The titanium dioxide analyst from Shengyi Society believes that currently, due to factors such as the initial anti-dumping ruling announcement and high sea freight rates, the situation of foreign trade orders has weakened compared to before. On the domestic front, raw material prices remain firm, and there is significant pressure on the production cost of titanium dioxide. Some enterprises have chosen to limit or stop production. In the short term, the market is still in a wait-and-see stage, with stability as the main focus. However, the sentiment of hoping for a rise is already brewing, and the actual transaction price is subject to negotiation.

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of coking coal has remained stable this week. From July 9th to July 12th, the average price of coking coal was 2045 yuan/ton.

The coking coal market has been operating steadily this week. At present, coal mines in Shanxi are operating normally with a balanced market supply and demand, but there is not much room for growth. The support for the coke market is still acceptable, and the coke market is currently running steadily. In terms of supply, there has been little change in the production of coke enterprises, and the supply of coke is relatively stable. Enterprises are actively releasing their inventory. On the demand side, downstream steel mills are under market pressure and are cautious in procurement, mainly focusing on on-demand procurement.

According to analysts from Shengyi Society, the price of coking coal has remained stable this week, and the downstream coking enterprise market has been operating steadily recently. The steel market is under pressure, and the purchase of coke is cautious. The demand for coking coal is average, and the overall supply-demand game mainly focuses on the short-term price or pressure operation of coking coal, with specific consideration given to downstream market demand. It is expected that the price of coking coal will remain stable in the short term, and attention still needs to be paid to the supply and demand situation and the transaction of building materials in the future.

Analysis: This week (7.8-12), the liquid ammonia market in Shandong was sluggish, with prices fluctuating and falling. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the main production area of Shandong experienced a weekly decline of 2.34%. The main reason is that the maintenance equipment has resumed work one after another, and the supply side has shown loose performance. Coupled with the increase in urea to ammonia conversion by manufacturers, the supply has significantly increased, and the rise in ammonia volume has dragged down ammonia prices. From the beginning of the week to the middle of the week, some mainstream large factories in Shandong generally lowered their prices by 100-200 yuan/ton. Distributors mainly underreport shipments. And downstream procurement enthusiasm is not high, agricultural demand is still in the off-season, industrial demand remains rigid, and the overall demand side is bearish. At present, the mainstream quotation in Shandong region is between 2600-2800 yuan/ton.

Prediction: In the near future, agricultural demand procurement will slow down, industrial demand will follow suit, and supply will be sufficient. However, supply pressure may partially ease in the later stage. On the one hand, the main production areas in the north will hover or tighten supply with low prices. On the other hand, the export of liquid ammonia may improve. From the demand side, agricultural demand may be affected by inventory consumption, and there is room for improvement in later orders, while industrial demand urgently needs to follow up. Taking all factors into consideration, liquid ammonia may stop falling next week, and there is a possibility of a price rebound.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of July 11th, the reference average price of domestic urea market was 2443 yuan/ton, which is 1.37% lower than the reference average price of 2477 yuan/ton on July 4th.

2、 Market analysis

market conditions

This week, the domestic urea market prices have been running weakly. As of July 11th, the ex factory price of urea in Shandong region is around 2240-2280 yuan/ton, in Hebei region it is around 2280 yuan/ton, and in Henan region it is around 2290 yuan/ton.

Supply and demand situation

In terms of supply, the urea market currently has sufficient supply, and the market has a strong cautious and wait-and-see attitude. In terms of demand, agricultural demand remains primarily driven by essential needs. The downstream compound fertilizer production is stable, and the demand for urea remains stable.

3、 Future forecast

Business Society’s urea analyst believes that the urea market has been weak and volatile in recent days. At present, the demand for summer agriculture is still high, but there is more supply in the urea market, and downstream purchases are mainly made at low prices. It is expected that the domestic urea market prices will fluctuate and consolidate in the short term.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, in June 2024, the domestic lead ingot market fluctuated and rose. The average price in the domestic market was 18675 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, 19205 yuan/ton at the end of the month, with a monthly increase of 2.84%.

On June 30, the lead commodity index was 116.88, a decrease of 12.78% from the highest point in the cycle of 134.01 points (2016-11-29), and an increase of 56.61% from the lowest point of 74.63 points on March 19, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-09-01 present).

On June 30th, the base metal index was 1333 points, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 17.51% from the highest point in the cycle of 1616 points (2022-03-09), and an increase of 107.63% from the lowest point of 642 points on November 24th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-12-01 present).

K-bar chart of commodity prices, using the concept of price trend K-line, reflects the weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations. In 2024, the price of lead ingots mostly increased, with only a 1.77% drop in February and an increase of over 2.8% in other months. Judging from the weekly K-bar chart, the market has seen more ups and downs in recent times.

Macroscopically, the ISM service industry in the United States unexpectedly fell significantly short of expectations in June, with the fastest contraction rate in four years. The June ISM service industry PMI in the United States was 48.8, significantly lower than the expected 52.6, and May was 53.8. Business activities have sharply declined, new orders have also significantly declined, the price index is at its lowest in three months, and the employment index has shrunk for the fifth consecutive month. After the data was released, US bond yields significantly declined, gold rose, and the US dollar fell.

According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, the Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) of China’s manufacturing industry in June was 49.5%, unchanged from the previous month, indicating a stable outlook for the manufacturing industry. The non manufacturing business activity index is 50.5%, a decrease of 0.6 percentage points from the previous month, above the critical point, and the non manufacturing industry continues to expand. The comprehensive PMI output index is 50.5%, a decrease of 0.5 percentage points from the previous month and above the critical point.

The overall lead ingot market fluctuated and rose in June. Starting from May to June, the lead-acid battery market entered the off-season of the industry, with a clear downward trend in enterprise operating rates and a weak trend in terminal demand. Fundamentally speaking, the supply of lead concentrate continues to be tight. Currently, some refineries in Jiangxi have stopped production due to certificate renewal reasons, while some in Jiangsu have stopped production for about a week for equipment maintenance. Next week, some refineries in Anhui plan to stop production for maintenance, resulting in a tight supply of primary lead. In terms of recycled lead, in the face of a shortage of waste battery supply, multiple recycled lead refineries experienced production cuts and shutdowns again in June due to insufficient raw materials, resulting in an overall decline in operating rates. From a cost perspective, the current tight supply pattern of lead concentrate and waste batteries continues, making it difficult to reduce costs and providing strong support for lead prices. From the demand side, currently in the off-season of downstream demand, on-demand procurement is the main focus, and there is little improvement in the short term. It is expected that the lead ingot market will remain stable with a strong trend in the short term.

According to data from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the production and sales of automobiles in May 2024 were 2.372 million and 2.417 million, respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 1.7% and 1.5%. From January to May 2024, the production and sales of automobiles reached 11.384 million and 11.496 million respectively, an increase of 6.5% and 8.3% year-on-year.

According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, China’s lead production in May 2024 was 687000 tons, an increase of 8.9% year-on-year. From January to May 2024, China’s lead production was 3.252 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 4.2%

According to the International Lead and Zinc Research Group ILZSG, the global lead market experienced a shortage of 22600 tons in April 2024 and 3400 tons in March. From January to April 2024, the global lead market had an oversupply of 7000 tons, compared to a shortage of 7800 tons in the same period last year.

According to data released by the World Bureau of Metals Statistics (WBMS), in April 2024, there was a global surplus of 184000 tons of zinc sheet supply and 48400 tons of refined lead supply worldwide. From January to April 2024, there was an oversupply of 193600 tons of zinc sheets and 141900 tons of refined lead worldwide.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, the PP market experienced a narrow range of fluctuations in early July, with prices of various brand products stabilizing slightly. As of the afternoon of July 9th, the mainstream offer price for wire drawing by domestic producers and traders is around 7985.71 yuan/ton, which is the same as the price on July 1st.

Price trend

In terms of raw materials:

Recently, international crude oil prices have continued their previous high levels, and the market has taken on the positive news of OPEC+production cuts and the impact of the peak summer fuel consumption season in the United States. The high oil prices have fluctuated horizontally, providing strong support for the PP market. The circulation speed of propylene has slowed down, but the overall price has remained stable and slightly decreased due to the support of crude oil. Due to the expectation of higher prices for liquefied gas, propane has been driven and prices have increased, resulting in a positive trend in the production of PDH. Overall, the recent cost guidance for PP still comes from the remote cost of crude oil, and the support for PP from various raw materials is still acceptable.

In terms of supply:

In early July, the load level of domestic PP enterprises was 70% higher than the average operating level at the end of June. Some devices have undergone short repairs within ten days, with limited changes in operating rates. The industry operating rate has fluctuated and adjusted around 71%. Although there has been a narrow increase in production, there has been no increase in inventory, and the factory pricing of enterprises has remained stable. The current on-site supply of goods remains abundant, with supply pressure fluctuating. Some production lines are still resuming work in the future, and it is expected that there will be an increasing trend in on-site supply.

In terms of demand:

In early July, the demand side of PP performed poorly, and the load on end enterprises remained generally stable. Among them, the consumption of woven bags such as fertilizers and cement is at the off-season level, while the operating rate of plastic weaving enterprises is relatively low at 41%, and the enthusiasm for replenishment is not strong. Due to high raw material prices, slow cost transfer, and low profit margins, the replenishment operation of film companies revolves around rigid demand. The comprehensive operating rate of injection molding enterprises is 56%, basically stabilizing. The trading atmosphere in the downstream market of PP is average, with limited new orders and mostly pre delivery contracts. The demand side creates a certain drag on the PP market.

Future Market Forecast

The current domestic PP market prices are experiencing narrow fluctuations and are operating in a stalemate. The comprehensive support for upstream raw materials is strong, but the demand for PP is at the off-season level. The tug and tug between cost and demand has basically smoothed out the long and short positions in the short term. The supply and demand trend in the future market is stable with some increases, and there may be limited improvement in the consumption pattern. Overall, it is expected that the PP market will remain stagnant in mid July.

1、 Price trend

Taking the sulfuric acid method rutile type titanium dioxide, which has a large volume of sales in the domestic market, as an example, according to data monitoring by Business Society, the domestic titanium dioxide market has remained stable this week, with an average price of 15783.33 yuan/ton.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the domestic titanium dioxide market is temporarily stable and consolidating. Overall, the international export situation of titanium dioxide is still acceptable. The demand in the domestic terminal market is weak, with high prices in the raw material titanium ore market and continuous increases in sulfuric acid prices. Due to the impact of raw materials, there is significant pressure on the production cost of titanium dioxide, and limited room for price downward adjustment. Due to various reasons such as power grid maintenance, some enterprises still have maintenance plans this month, which to some extent alleviates the current market pressure. As of now, most domestic sulfuric acid based rutile titanium dioxide quotations are between 15300 and 16200 yuan/ton; The quotation for rutile titanium dioxide is around 14500-15000 yuan/ton. The actual transaction price is negotiable.

In terms of titanium concentrate, the market price of titanium concentrate in the Panxi region is strong and upward. Affected by the supply of raw materials, mining enterprises in the Panxi region have insufficient production, resulting in a tight spot market and high prices of titanium ore. However, the downstream titanium dioxide enterprises have a weak market situation and poor market demand. The trading of titanium concentrate is mostly wait-and-see, and market procurement is cautious. As of now, the tax-free quotation for 38-42 grade titanium ore is around 1570-1580 yuan/ton, the tax-free quotation for 46 grade 10 titanium concentrate is around 2200-2250 yuan/ton, and the quotation for 47 grade 20 titanium concentrate is around 2500-2630 yuan/ton. In the short term, the price of Panxi titanium concentrate continues to operate at a high level, and the specific actual transaction price will be negotiated separately.

3、 Future Market Forecast

The titanium dioxide analyst from Business Society believes that currently, the price of titanium concentrate in Panxi region is strong and upward, while the price of sulfuric acid is upward, with good support for raw materials. The cost of titanium dioxide is under pressure, and some prices are approaching the cost. The overall downward space for the titanium dioxide market is limited. It is expected that the situation of purchasing goods will improve in the short term, and the actual transaction price will be negotiated separately.