Recently (7.29-8.5), the market price of butadiene rubber has slightly declined. According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of August 5th, the market price of butadiene rubber in East China was 14750 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.12% from 15070 yuan/ton on July 29th. The price of raw material butadiene has fallen slightly from a high level; Shunding rubber production continues to remain low; Downstream tire production has slightly rebounded, overall inquiries are cautious, and there is resistance to high priced sources. Shunding rubber futures have fallen slightly from their high levels, and market trading has been flat. On August 5th, PetroChina Northeast and East China Sales Companies lowered the ex factory price of butadiene rubber by 300 yuan/ton, leading to a growing bearish sentiment in the market.

Recently (7.29-8.5), the price of butadiene has fallen from a high level, and the cost center of butadiene rubber has slightly decreased, but overall there is still some support. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of August 5th, the price of butadiene was 12662 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.84% from 12900 yuan/ton on July 29th.

Recently (7.29-8.5), the construction of domestic butadiene rubber plants has continued to maintain a low level, and as of August 5th, the construction of butadiene rubber in China is around 5.5%. However, some maintenance devices are scheduled to restart in mid August, and the supply of butadiene rubber is expected to slightly increase in the later period.

Demand side: Downstream tire production has slightly rebounded, and demand is supported by weak demand in the butadiene rubber market. Downstream inquiries are resistant to high priced sources of goods. As of August 1st, the operating load of semi steel tires in domestic tire enterprises is around 7.9%; The operating load of all steel tires in tire enterprises in Shandong region is about 5.6%.

Market forecast: From a fundamental perspective, analysts from Shengyi Society believe that the price of raw material butadiene will fall from a high level, and the cost center of butadiene rubber will slightly decrease; Shunding rubber production remains at a low level, but some units are planned to restart in the later stage, and the supply side is expected to increase in the later stage; Recently, downstream tire companies have seen a slight increase in production, but they are cautious about purchasing Shunding rubber. Overall, the Shunding rubber market is still weak and mainly declining in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from July 29th to August 2nd (as of 15:00), the average price of methanol in East China ports in the domestic market increased from 2500 yuan/ton to 2515 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 0.60% during the period, a month on month decrease of 1.76%, and a year-on-year increase of 7.40%. The domestic methanol market has undergone a narrow consolidation. Due to weak demand, there is currently no significant positive news to boost the market. The overall delivery volume in the mainland market is average, and coupled with the impact of weather factors on transportation, inventory has accumulated in the mainland. However, companies do not have any pressure to ship, and the market performance is stagnant.

As of the close on August 2nd, the closing price of methanol futures on Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange has risen. The main contract for methanol futures, 2409, opened at 2495 yuan/ton, with a highest price of 2516 yuan/ton and a lowest price of 2487 yuan/ton. It closed at 2505 yuan/ton at the end of the day, up 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day’s settlement, an increase of 0.40%. The trading volume was 491828 lots, and the position was 626831 lots, with a daily increase of -23229.

As of 8.2, the summary of methanol market prices in various regions:

Region/ Price

Shanxi region/ 2260-2270 yuan/ton factory withdrawal in foreign exchange

Liaoning region/ 2700 yuan/ton

Anhui region/ 2455 yuan/ton

Henan region/ Factory reference: 2320-2325 yuan/ton, factory withdrawal in foreign exchange

In terms of cost and supply, global coal supply remains stable, while domestic imports have increased. The increase in domestic demand is insufficient to support coal prices at a high level; In terms of demand, the overall pressure on power plant inventory is relatively small, and the terminal is currently mainly supplemented by long-term agreements, replenishing inventory according to demand. The demand for coal in the market is relatively flat, and the overall sentiment is wait-and-see. The impact of methanol cost is mixed.

On the demand side, downstream MTBE: MTBE demand is increasing; Downstream formaldehyde: reduced demand for formaldehyde; Downstream dimethyl ether: reduced demand for dimethyl ether; Downstream chloride: The load of the North China unit is still unstable, and the demand for chloride has decreased; Downstream acetic acid: Decreased demand for acetic acid. The impact of methanol demand is mixed.

On the supply side, the utilization rate of production capacity has increased. Negative factors affecting the methanol supply side.

In terms of external markets, as of the close of August 1st, the closing price of CFR Southeast Asia methanol market was between $345-346 per ton. The closing price of the US Gulf methanol market is 101-102 cents/gallon, up 1 cent/gallon; The closing price of FOB Rotterdam methanol market is 323-324 euros/ton, down 2 euros/ton.

Region/ Country/ Closing price/ Rise and fall

Asia/ CFR Southeast Asia/ 345-346 USD/ton/ 0 USD/ton

Europe and America/ American Gulf/ 101-102 cents per gallon/ 1 cent/gallon

Europe/ FOB Rotterdam/ 323-324 euros/ton/ -2 euros per ton

Market forecast: Early maintenance equipment will gradually resume, and supply may increase significantly; In terms of demand, downstream consumption lacks momentum, making it difficult to break the deadlock. Business Society’s methanol analyst predicts that the domestic methanol market will mainly focus on consolidation.

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the domestic ship fuel market fluctuated and declined in July. As of July 31, the average price of 180CST fuel oil in China was 5496.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.33% from 5570.00 yuan/ton on July 1.

In July, the domestic fuel oil price of 180CST fluctuated downward, and the overall price of blended raw materials in China was weak, leading to a strong wait-and-see sentiment in the ship fuel market; The supply market and shipping terminal market for coastal bulk cargo prices continue to be low, with weak shipping demand. In the latter half of the year, due to the impact of typhoon weather, the demand for oil replenishment by ship owners is limited, and inquiries from ship owners are scarce. Terminal demand for replenishment is urgent, resulting in limited transactions. According to Business Society, as of July 31st, the self pickup low sulfur quotation for 180cst fuel oil in Dalian area of China National Fuel Oil Corporation is 5650 yuan/ton, and the self pickup low sulfur quotation for 120cst fuel oil is 5750 yuan/ton; The self extracted low sulfur quotation for 180cst fuel oil in the Shanghai area of China National Fuel Oil Corporation is 5400 yuan/ton, and the self extracted low sulfur quotation for 120cst fuel oil is 5500 yuan/ton.

The crude oil market experienced a significant decline in July. On the one hand, the geopolitical situation has eased, which is bearish for the crude oil market. In addition, the strengthening of the US dollar has affected economic activity in the United States due to hurricanes, putting pressure on crude oil demand and causing a slowdown in US crude oil exports. On the other hand, there are also signs of slowing economic growth in the Eurozone and China, especially the decline in China’s crude oil imports, which has had a negative impact on the crude oil market.

In terms of international fuel oil, it is reported that the Singapore Enterprise Development Board (ESG) stated that as of the week ending July 24th, Singapore’s fuel oil inventories decreased by 277000 barrels to a two-week low of 19.855 million barrels, which is the lowest level in the past two weeks.

Market forecast: Recently, the international crude oil market has fallen, the domestic mixed raw material market is weak, the low sulfur asphalt market is declining, and there is a strong wait-and-see sentiment in the ship fuel market; The supply market for ships has limited demand for oil replenishment from terminal ship owners, with few inquiries from ship owners and a focus on urgent replenishment, resulting in limited transactions. It is expected that the fuel oil 180CST market will mainly consolidate in the near future.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price of pure benzene has continued to decline this month. On July 1st, the price was 9318.67 yuan/ton; On July 30th, the price was 8389.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 9.96% from the beginning of the month and an increase of 15.98% from the same period last year.

2、 Analysis and Review

Pure benzene: The inventory of pure benzene at ports in Jiangsu Province is 39800 tons, an increase of 19800 tons from the end of last month, indicating a rapid increase in inventory. The price of pure benzene for night trading has been negotiated to around 8350-8440 yuan/ton.

This month, the price of pure benzene from Sinopec has dropped to 8400 yuan/ton.

Downstream aspects

The styrene market fluctuated and fell. On July 1st, the price of styrene in Shandong was 9433.33 yuan/ton, and on July 30th, the price was 9460.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.78% within the month. The current price has increased by 15.20% year-on-year. On January 1st, the 500000 tons/year styrene plant in Qingdao Bay was shut down for maintenance for one month. On the 10th, the 150000 tons/year styrene plant of North Huajin is scheduled to undergo a 14 day shutdown and maintenance. The supply of styrene has increased, and spot demand is mainly driven by rigid demand. The spot demand is poor, and the styrene market has slightly declined.

3、 Future forecast

Crude oil: International oil prices have fallen. NYMEX crude oil futures 09 contract 75.81 fell $1.35/barrel, or 1.75%; ICE Brent futures contract 09 fell $1.35/barrel or 1.66% to 79.78. The main contract for Chinese INE crude oil futures, 2409, fell 1.0 to 585.2 yuan/barrel, and fell 7.2 to 578 yuan/barrel in the evening session.

The fundamentals are showing a downward trend in the short term, with sufficient supply in the market. Pure benzene may continue to decline in the short term, and we will observe whether the cost and demand sides can improve. Continue to monitor the trends of crude oil and external markets, as well as the impact of changes in pure benzene and downstream equipment dynamics and demand on the price of pure benzene.

Aluminum prices have fallen by 9.80% since June

Aluminum prices continued to decline from June to July. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the average price of aluminum ingots in the East China market on July 29, 2024 was 19140 yuan/ton, a decrease of 9.80% from the market average price of 21256.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month (June 1).

Reasons for the decline

1. Overseas economic data has hit hard on expectations of interest rate cuts, and the market no longer fully expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in November. At the macro level, international commodity prices have been suppressed, and non-ferrous metal prices have retreated.

2. Weakening overseas data triggers recession expectations, while CPI data gradually raises market expectations of a weakening US economy. The Federal Reserve’s Beige Book shows that businesses expect future growth to slow down and the labor market to remain weak. The production of primary processed aluminum products in the United States has decreased, and the demand for aluminum ingots has maintained a low season performance.

On the domestic front, the economic data for the second quarter was released, with a GDP of 4.7%, which was lower than expected. Domestic downstream inventory replenishment and falsification, and inventory removal is not smooth. As of July 29th, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum in major domestic markets was 795000 tons, unchanged from the inventory of 795000 tons on June 3rd; Compared to July 1st, the inventory was 762000 tons, with a cumulative inventory of 33000 tons.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price of PET water bottle grade has experienced a slight correction this week, and the volatile operation shows a certain downward trend. As of July 26th, the average price of PET water bottle grade is 7178 yuan/ton.

Raw material market: On July 25th, crude oil rebounded narrowly overnight, while polyester raw materials continued to decline during the day, and PET cost support was average. In terms of the international crude oil market, US crude oil inventories have declined for the fourth consecutive week, while gasoline and distillate inventories have also decreased accordingly, and gasoline demand has shown an increasing trend. These factors have collectively led to a rebound in international oil prices from the recent six week low.

On the supply and demand side, Yisheng’s 600000 ton new production capacity has been put into operation, and there is a strong wait-and-see sentiment in the industry. But the current local supply is still tight, which has a supporting effect on the market. The cost and demand support are generally average, and the short-term market price of PET futures and spot is not strong enough. However, considering the tight supply in reality, the downward space for PET is also limited.

The PET analyst from Shengyi Society believes that there may be a narrow adjustment pattern overall.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of July 25th, the average price quoted by epoxy chloropropane enterprises was 7875.00 yuan/ton, which is basically the same as last Friday’s (July 19th) price.

Recently, the market for epichlorohydrin has been operating steadily. This week, the price of raw material liquid chlorine first rose and then fell, the raw material propylene fluctuated narrowly, and the raw material glycerol steadily rose, with strong cost support. The production enterprise mainly delivers contract orders, but the terminal follow-up is relatively slow. The downstream procurement mentality is cautious, and low demand follow-up is the main focus. The focus of negotiations in the epoxy chloropropane market is stable.

Raw material propylene:

According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, on July 24th, the reference price of propylene was 7125.75, a decrease of 0.11% compared to July 1st (7133.25). In the recent stage, the price of raw material propylene has fluctuated narrowly, and the cost is still supported by the epichlorohydrin market.

Market forecast:

Short term cost support still exists, and demand follow-up may be limited. The market is cautious and cautious, and it is expected that the epichlorohydrin market will stabilize and operate in the short term. More attention still needs to be paid to market news guidance.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic polyester staple fiber market continued to weaken today (July 24th), with an average price of 7851 yuan/ton for 1.4D * 38mm, a decrease of 0.84% from the previous trading day. The sustained decline in cost has weakened the support for polyester staple fibers, and today mainstream production factories have generally lowered prices by 100 yuan/ton. Downstream buyers’ willingness to purchase at low prices has increased, and the transaction atmosphere has slightly improved.

The price of raw material PTA fluctuated downward, and as of July 24th, the average price of PTA in the East China region was 5878 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.64% from the beginning of the month. Recently, there have been many restarts of PTA facilities, leading to increased expectations of loose supply. Two sets of PTA plants with a total capacity of 6 million tons in Yisheng Dalian were restarted after a short shutdown. At present, the operating load of domestic industries is around 86%. In the short term, the number of PTA planned maintenance units is limited, and the supply of goods is abundant. It is expected that PTA prices will continue to show a weak trend.

Rumors have it that mainstream polyester staple fiber manufacturers plan to reduce production by 10% by the end of this month, with expectations of supply contraction supporting market sentiment. However, downstream yarn mills are skeptical about reducing production and have a strong wait-and-see attitude. Under the pressure of accumulating inventory, they are cautious about purchasing raw materials for essential needs.

Business analysts believe that with the gradual implementation of the polyester factory production reduction plan, the demand for PTA will decrease, and PTA will remain weak. Due to the accumulation of downstream finished product inventory on the demand side and tight cash flow, the enthusiasm for purchasing raw materials is not high. Although there have been reports of production cuts in short fiber factories, it is expected that prices will continue to decline in the short term due to weak costs and demand.

Price trend

According to the bulk ranking data of Shengyi Society, the domestic PC market has recently stopped falling and stabilized, with spot prices of various brands showing large stability and small fluctuations. As of July 23rd, the mixed benchmark price of Business Society PC was around 16383.33 yuan/ton, a decrease of -0.41% compared to July 1st.

Cause analysis

In terms of raw materials, it can be seen from the above chart that the price of bisphenol A in China has been strengthening recently. The industry load has dropped below 64%, the supply of goods has shrunk, and there is a favorable situation on the supply side. Upstream phenol and acetone have fluctuated, and the support for bisphenol A on the raw material side has limited changes. Downstream stocking is urgently needed for procurement, and the flow of goods has improved. Overall, bisphenol A has increased its support for PC costs.

In terms of supply: Recently, the overall operating rate of PC in China has remained stable with small fluctuations, and the industry average operating rate has decreased by 3% to below 76% compared to mid July. There is not much news about future maintenance and resumption of work. The on-site supply of goods remains abundant, and the news of Hengli Petrochemical’s PC sales in the early stage has affected the mentality of industry players. However, spot prices have fallen to the lowest point of the year, and producers have increased their efforts to raise prices and build a bottom, resulting in a stable and moderate increase in ex factory pricing. The overall market supply side provides stable support for PC prices.

In terms of demand: Recently, PC consumption has taken on a relatively weak pattern, with the main logic leaning towards maintaining production and digesting inventory for essential needs. Downstream enterprises have low loads, reduced stocking enthusiasm, and a narrow decline in consumption. Buyers have some resistance to high priced goods, and the circulation of goods is slow. The demand side has poor support for spot prices.

Future forecast

Recently, the PC market has stopped falling and stabilized. The upstream bisphenol A market has rebounded, and PC cost support has strengthened. The load of domestic polymerization plants has been reduced narrowly, and the changes in supply side factors are limited. The off-season market for demand side consumption is strong, and trading in the market is poor. At present, PC prices have reached their lowest point of the year, and the atmosphere of bottoming out in the market has increased. It is expected that the PC market will continue to consolidate and operate in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of July 22, the reference average price of 85% industrial grade thermal phosphoric acid in China was 6480 yuan/ton, which is 0.62% higher than the reference average price of 6440 yuan/ton on July 15.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of July 22, the reference average price of 85% wet process phosphoric acid in China was 6716 yuan/ton, which is 0.75% higher than the reference average price of 6666 yuan/ton on July 15.

2、 Market analysis

market conditions

This week, the domestic phosphoric acid market prices have slightly increased. As of July 22, the ex factory price of 85% thermal phosphoric acid in Hubei region is around 6300-6600 yuan/ton, and the ex factory price of 85% industrial phosphoric acid in Sichuan region is around 6300-6500 yuan/ton. The domestic market price for 85% wet process phosphoric acid is around 6650-6750 yuan/ton.

In terms of cost

In terms of raw material yellow phosphorus. This week, the yellow phosphorus market has been steadily consolidating and running. Yellow phosphorus enterprise owners place preliminary orders, but downstream enterprises have low purchasing enthusiasm and mainly engage in low-priced transactions. It is expected that the domestic yellow phosphorus market prices will consolidate in the short term.

Raw material phosphate rock market. This week, the market price of phosphate ore has been running steadily, with slight adjustments in some areas. Market inquiries are still acceptable, demand is stable, and downstream purchases are mainly for essential needs. It is expected that domestic phosphate rock prices will remain stable in the short term.

Supply and demand side

At present, the supply of hot process phosphoric acid in the market is stable, while some wet process phosphoric acid manufacturers have undergone equipment maintenance, resulting in a decrease in market supply. However, there is still support on the supply side. At present, the market demand is weak, with downstream demand for replenishment being the main focus, and on-site transactions are relatively low.

3、 Future forecast

Business Society’s phosphate analyst believes that the phosphate market has recently undergone a narrow adjustment. The raw material prices are stable, and the cost support is average. Weakness in supply and demand, resulting in sluggish market transactions. It is expected that the short-term market price of phosphoric acid will continue to experience slight consolidation.