This week, the price of metal silicon # 441 remained weak and stable. As of April 14th, the average price in the domestic metal silicon market was 13680 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.30% compared to the previous week. This week, the industrial silicon market has slightly declined, continuing the recent weak trend. The operating situation of silicon plants has decreased this week, and the release of downstream demand has also decreased due to the impact of profits, resulting in a slight increase in inventory. In the context of a dual decline in supply and demand, some silicon companies intend to lower prices to promote transactions, while downstream buyers have a willingness to purchase, but the pressure on prices is even greater, intensifying the game between the two sides. Therefore, although there were transactions in the market, the degree was not as expected, and coupled with accumulated inventory, downstream buyers were mostly bearish and focused on on-demand procurement, so industrial silicon saw a slight decline this week
The price of 441 # silicon in various regions on the 12th is as follows:
The price range of # 441 metallic silicon in the Huangpu Port area is 13500~13600 yuan/ton, with an average price of 13550 yuan/ton; The price range of # 441 metallic silicon in Tianjin Port area is 13500~13600 yuan/ton, with an average of 13550 yuan/ton; The price range of # 441 metallic silicon in Kunming is 13700-13800 yuan/ton, with an average price of 13750 yuan/ton; The price range of # 441 metallic silicon in Sichuan region is 13400~13500 yuan/ton, with an average of 13450 yuan/ton; The price range of Shanghai # 441 metallic silicon is 14000-14200 yuan/ton, with an average price of 14100 yuan/ton.
The Factors Influencing the Price of Silicon Metal
In terms of supply:
As of April 11th, the number of silicon metal furnaces in China has increased by 289, a decrease of 5 compared to the previous month. Shaanxi will reduce one unit, Xinjiang will decrease six units, and Sichuan will increase one unit. At present, the situation of inverted production costs in silicon factories is severe, with few enterprises in Southwest China starting production. Xinjiang silicon enterprises are under cost pressure to reduce production, and silicon enterprises are offering high prices without offering prices, resulting in an overall reduction in supply.
In terms of inventory:
As of April 12th, the inventory of industrial silicon remained unchanged compared to the previous week, with a social inventory of 370000 tons. Among them, the social ordinary warehouse had 114000 tons, which was the same as the previous week, and the social delivery warehouse had 256000 tons (including unregistered warehouse receipts), which was the same as the previous week; This week, industrial silicon factory inventory was 81000 tons, a decrease of 2000 tons compared to the previous week.
In terms of demand:
Polycrystalline silicon prices have weakened this week. Recently, the game situation between upstream and downstream has intensified, and downstream silicon wafers have been reduced in production, which often puts pressure on upstream quotations. However, due to the pressure of rising costs, upstream suppliers have a clear willingness to raise prices, and the supply pressure in the photovoltaic industry chain is gradually increasing. The contradiction of oversupply is prominent, but the performance of installed capacity demand is moderate. It is expected that the upstream and downstream of photovoltaics will continue to remain sluggish, and the price of silicon materials will still be weak.
This week, the price of organic silicon has slightly fallen, while the price of aluminum alloy has remained stable. The domestic organic silicon DMC market price reference is around 14500 yuan/ton. At present, the demand for organic silicon DMC on the market remains cautious, with a strong wait-and-see sentiment and some concerns about future inventory. However, the current market price has continued to decline and has also dropped to a lower level. For downstream users who have already digested some inventory, appropriate bargain hunting and stocking orders may increase. In the short term, the domestic organic silicon DMC market will mainly adjust its operation in a narrow range; The current quotation for aluminum alloy ADC12 is around 20000 yuan/ton. After the resumption of production, aluminum alloy enterprises gradually stabilized, releasing some rigid procurement demand. However, the overall change is limited, and the demand for aluminum alloy remains stable.
Future Market Forecast
In summary, on the supply side, the production cost inversion of silicon plants is severe, the overall operating rate has fallen, and some areas have shut down for maintenance operations, resulting in a reduction in the overall supply situation; On the demand side, the demand for polycrystalline silicon and organic silicon has remained stable, and the release of replenishment demand in the short term has weakened, highlighting the dual decline in supply and demand. Social inventory is stabilizing, and there is not much pressure on total inventory. At present, the supply and demand side has turned into a situation of dual decline in supply and demand, with fundamental bearish prices, especially the recent weakening of futures prices. However, cost support is temporarily stored, and it is expected that industrial silicon will experience narrow fluctuations and operate weakly and steadily next week.
