In the first half of May, the domestic ABS market experienced a high decline, with most brands experiencing a decrease in spot prices. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of May 14th, the average price of ABS sample products was 12375 yuan/ton, a decrease of -0.80% from the price level on May 1st.

Fundamental analysis

Supply level: At the beginning of this month, the domestic ABS industry took on a low load pattern in the early stage. After a four month upward trend, the price of ABS has risen to a high level, and the profitability of aggregation enterprises has improved. In the first half of May, there were operations to increase load and expand profits, and the average operating rate of domestic ABS enterprises increased by nearly 10% to over 62%. The production has increased synchronously, and the supply of goods on site has also increased accordingly. And there are still expectations for improvement in the future, with supply side support for ABS spot gradually weakening.

Cost factor: In the past half month, the trend of ABS upstream three materials has generally turned downward. Although acrylonitrile has the advantage of rising raw material prices, the concentrated resumption of maintenance equipment has a relatively negative impact on the acrylonitrile market overall. The current spot prices are fluctuating and falling, and it is expected that the acrylonitrile market may continue to be weak.

Recently, the domestic butadiene market has remained stable with some declines. Downstream follow-up is required after the holiday, and the pressure from suppliers is not significant. However, the external market prices have weakened, and the news of low-priced transactions has stimulated the domestic market. Buyers have a lower intention to inquire about prices, and the mentality of merchants is gradually weakening. The market supply and demand are deadlocked, and it is expected that the butadiene market may be weak and consolidate.

Since May, the styrene market has continued to decline. International oil prices fluctuate in the interval, with poor cost support. The spot demand is mainly for rigid demand, while the price of styrene was previously high. Downstream resistance to high-end offers has emerged, and it is expected that styrene will mainly fluctuate and decline in the future.

In terms of demand: The main terminal demand for ABS has remained stable with a slight decrease, and the overall load of downstream factories has remained generally stable. The stocking operation is mainly focused on buying in demand. Traders are flexible in their orders, leading to an increase in low-end market offers and a decrease in the speed of goods circulation. The market momentum has weakened, and the demand side has weakened its support for the market.

Future Market Forecast

In the first half of May, domestic ABS prices fluctuated and fell. From a fundamental perspective, the center of gravity of the upstream three materials of ABS is falling, which weakens the cost support for ABS. The construction of ABS polymerization plant has significantly increased, and supply pressure is gradually increasing. The demand side’s demand logic remains unchanged, and the support for spot goods is mediocre. In summary, it is expected that the ABS market may experience a weak downward trend in the short term.

Price trend

Recently, the domestic POM market has been operating sideways, with spot prices relatively firm. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of May 13th, the mixed price of domestic POM was 12700 yuan/ton, which is the same as the price level on May 1st.

Cause analysis

In terms of raw materials:

The domestic methanol market is mainly experiencing a narrow upward trend. In recent times, there has been little contradiction in the fundamentals of methanol. The inventory of mainland sample enterprises is relatively low, and there is not much pressure on their shipments. In addition, some enterprises are outsourcing, resulting in a relatively high market atmosphere. The overall market is mainly strong. Downstream MTBE: After Yuhuang starts construction, it will affect next week’s production, leading to an increase in MTBE demand; Downstream chloride: After the shutdown and maintenance of mainstream factories in Shandong, the equipment returned to normal, and the demand for chloride increased; In the short term, the domestic methanol market is mainly weak and consolidating, and overall support for POM is still acceptable.

In terms of supply:

Recently, the operating rate of domestic POM enterprises has been adjusted and operated, with an overall load of around 77%, with a narrow decline. There is a maintenance plan for Shenhua Ningmei in the later stage, and there is an expectation of supply contraction. After a week of digestion, the inventory position of the aggregation plant has decreased. In addition, with the increase in imported material prices, manufacturers have strong confidence and pricing is generally firm. Overall, the pressure on the supply side is not significant.

In terms of demand:

The stocking situation of domestic POM downstream enterprises is average, and most of them just need to pick up goods to maintain production. The main logic for terminal factories to obtain goods is to maintain and digest inventory, and the flow rate of goods within the site is relatively slow. The release of post holiday stocking is not obvious, and the consumption level is still following the previous weak trend. The mentality of traders is average. Overall, the demand side has poor support for POM spot prices.

Future Market Forecast

The recent trend of the POM market has been strong. The operating rate of domestic polymerization plants has been adjusted narrowly, and there are still maintenance enterprises in the future, which has eased the pressure on the supply side. Downstream consumer follow-up remains weak, with POM long and short facing each other. It is expected that the future market will mainly fluctuate and consolidate.

Small fluctuations in the plasticizer sector after the holiday

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, the plasticizer sector reached 786 points on May 10th, an increase of 1 point from yesterday and 3 points from the plasticizer sector index of 783 points on May 1st, an increase of 0.38%; The plasticizer sector index increased by 5 points, or 0.64%, compared to 781 points on April 21. Starting from late April, the index of the plasticizer sector has slightly increased, but overall, the fluctuation of the plasticizer sector index is relatively small, and the fluctuation range has significantly narrowed. After the holiday, the index of the plasticizer sector has risen or fallen within 0.5%.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the average weekly increase and decrease in the 19th week of 2024 (5.6-5.10) was 0.07%. In the 19th week of 2024 (5.6-5.10), there were a total of 3 products that went up, 4 products that went down, and 2 products that went up or down to 0 on the plasticizer price list. The main rising commodities include PVC (1.37%), n-butanol (industrial grade) (0.42%), and DBP (0.40%); The main commodities falling include PTA (-0.55%), DOP (-0.51%), and isooctanol (-0.41%). This week, the plasticizer sector saw a slight increase or decrease in product prices, with major products experiencing fluctuations within 1%.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the main plasticizer sector products showed a slight increase in May, while downstream product prices slightly rebounded. The prices of plasticizer raw materials octanol and n-butanol increased, and the main plasticizer products showed varying degrees of increase. The plasticizer sector saw a slight overall increase in May.

Main plasticizer products saw a slight increase in May

According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the main plasticizer products saw a slight increase in May. As of May 11th, DOP prices have slightly increased by 1.02%, DOTP prices have slightly increased by 1.26%, and DBP prices have slightly increased by 0.94%. During the May Day holiday, some production facilities of plasticizer enterprises were shut down for maintenance, and the operating rate of plasticizer enterprises decreased to 60%, slightly lower than before the holiday. After the holiday, with the completion of maintenance, it is expected that the operating rate of plasticizer enterprises will gradually recover to around 66%, and the supply will gradually increase. Cost support has led to an increase in plasticizer product prices, but with an increase in plasticizer supply, there is insufficient support for the overall increase in plasticizer prices.

The price of isooctanol slightly increased in May

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of May 11th, the price of isooctanol was 9750 yuan/ton, a slight increase of 0.93% compared to the price of isooctanol on May 1st, which was 9660 yuan/ton. The price fluctuations of octanol products have narrowed. In May, the maintenance equipment of octanol enterprises resumed, and the operating rate of octanol increased to 98%, an increase of 5 percentage points from the operating rate in April. In early May, the supply of octanol increased, and downstream purchases were made as needed. In mid to late May, some manufacturers plan to shut down their octanol units for maintenance. In mid to late May, the domestic octanol supply is expected to decrease, and the production of plasticizer devices is basically stable and maintains a relatively high level. The octanol market lacks continuous upward momentum.

The price of n-butanol slightly increased in May

According to the analysis system of n-butanol commodity market by Business Society, as of May 11th, the quotation for n-butanol was 7900 yuan/ton, a slight increase of 0.85% compared to the price of 7833.33 yuan/ton on May 1st. After the holiday, the n-butanol market in Shandong region showed a slight increase and remained stable. During the holiday period, the supply and demand of n-butanol were weak, and the overall market was operating quietly. After the holiday, some downstream small areas needed replenishment, and the focus of the n-butanol market slightly increased. In the future, it is expected that the n-butanol market will remain stable and consolidate overall.

Expected decrease in downstream demand

The domestic PVC social inventory was 598700 tons, an increase of 0.37% month on month and 22.07% year-on-year. PVC production enterprises maintain high inventory levels, which are affected by high operating loads and slow inventory removal; In the pattern of high supply and weak demand, the difficulty of destocking in the market and society has increased, and the risk of subsequent accumulation remains. The global PVC prices have fallen in May, leading to weak demand in the export market. The maintenance intensity of the domestic PVC market decreased month on month in May, with sufficient supply in the PVC market, stable downstream terminal demand as the main factor, weak external exports, and soft supply and demand in the PVC market, resulting in low consolidation of PVC prices.

Future expectations

Business Society plasticizer product data analysts believe that the plasticizer market experienced slight fluctuations in May, with prices of raw materials such as isooctanol and n-butanol rising slightly. Downstream enterprises maintained high production levels, and plasticizer demand support still exists. However, downstream demand expectations are expected to decrease in the future, and plasticizer demand remains weak. In the future, the prices of raw materials have become strong and stable, with insufficient cost support; Downstream demand expectations are expected to decrease, while plasticizers are supported by rising prices, leading to weak consolidation in the plasticizer sector in the future.

This week, the sponge titanium market prices remained strong. According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, as of May 9th, the benchmark price of Shengyishe sponge titanium was 54750.00 yuan/ton, which is the same as the beginning of this month.

In terms of raw materials, the high price of titanium concentrate has put pressure on the cost of high titanium slag enterprises. In addition, with the increase in electricity prices in Liaoning region, most production enterprises have suffered losses, and the market price of high titanium slag is under pressure and rising. According to the monitoring system of Business Society, as of May 9th, the benchmark price of magnesium in Business Society was 18466.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of -1.07% compared to the beginning of this month (18666.67 yuan/ton).

Downstream titanium material market demand is weak, and the market transaction atmosphere is cold.

Post forecast:

Due to the high prices in the raw material market, magnesium ingot prices have fallen, sponge titanium production capacity has been continuously released, and production has increased. However, downstream market demand is weak, and the transaction atmosphere is cold, presenting a state of supply-demand imbalance. According to analysts from Business Society Sponge Titanium, the sponge titanium market is expected to remain strong in the near future. More attention should be paid to market news guidelines.

According to monitoring data from Business Society, as of April 30, 2023, the reference price of n-butanol in Shandong Province, China was 7833 yuan/ton. Compared with April 1 (reference price of n-butanol was 7950 yuan/ton), the price decreased by 117 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.47%.

From the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, it can be seen that in April, the n-butanol market in Shandong Province, China, as a whole, showed a trend of frequent fluctuations and ending decline. In early April, approaching the eve of the Qingming Festival, the trading volume of n-butanol market turned weak, and the market price fell to the low point of the month. Downstream users sought to stock up on dips, and with demand boosting, the market quickly rebounded. However, after a brief rise, the demand side returned to calm, and the price of n-butanol market also began to fall. Some downstream users started to stage stocking, and the n-butanol market began to fluctuate with the continuous changes in demand. As of April 30th, the domestic market price of n-butanol in Shandong region is around 7800-7900 yuan/ton, and compared with the beginning of the month, the price has been reduced by about 100-150 yuan/ton.

Market price situation of n-butanol

Region/ Product/ April 30th

Shandong region/ N-butanol/ 7800-7900./-400

North China region/ N-butanol/ 7950-8050

South China region/ N-butanol/ 8200-8300

East China region/ N-butanol/ 8200-8300

Future analysis

At present, the overall trading atmosphere of the domestic Shandong region’s n-butanol market is quiet and mild, with downstream demand being for essential purchases. The pressure on the supply side of n-butanol factories is still acceptable. The n-butanol data analyst from Business Society believes that in the short term, the domestic n-butanol market will mainly adjust slightly, and the specific trend still needs to pay more attention to changes in supply and demand news.

After the holiday, the weak market for hexafluoropropylene was mainly consolidated. The follow-up of downstream inquiries and procurement is average, and the transaction atmosphere is average. According to the data monitoring system of Shengyishe, as of May 7th, the benchmark price of hexafluoropropylene in Shengyishe was 35875.00 yuan/ton, unchanged from the beginning of this month.

Raw material side: High cost prices are under pressure, and production enterprises have thin profits. On May 7th, the price trend of domestic hydrofluoric acid market increased, the on-site equipment operated stably, and the supply of goods was normal. According to the data monitoring system of Business Society, as of May 7th, the benchmark price of hydrofluoric acid (export) in Business Society was 14150.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.54% compared to the beginning of this month (13800.00 yuan/ton). The domestic fluorite market has risen. As of May 7th, the benchmark price of Shengyishe fluorite was 3687.50 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.34% compared to the beginning of this month (3675.00 yuan/ton).

The downstream market is relatively quiet, with poor demand, and the focus is on purchasing for essential needs.

Business Society’s hexafluoropropylene analyst predicts that due to the recent high cost support of hexafluoropropylene, downstream market demand is poor, and on-demand procurement is affected. It is expected that the hexafluoropropylene market will operate weakly and steadily in the near future. More attention should be paid to market news guidelines.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the price of butyl acetate was 7575 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and 7475 yuan/ton at the end of the month. The price decreased by 100 yuan/ton within the month, a decrease of 1.32%.

Market analysis: In April, the domestic market for butyl acetate remained stable and declined. There is currently no plan for maintenance or production reduction of the butyl acetate unit, and there is little fluctuation in capacity utilization rate within the month. The market supply is stable, and the price of butyl acetate is mostly operating steadily. In the first half of the year, due to the impact of cost factors, the raw material n-butanol was consolidating at a low level, and the mentality of butyl acetate manufacturers was indecisive. The performance of the butyl ester market was weak, and trading prices slightly decreased.

Cost side: The price of raw material acetic acid has risen and fallen, while the market for n-butanol has fluctuated at a low level. The fluctuation of the cost side market has affected the market mentality. Downstream gas purchases are insufficient, and more follow-up is needed. Manufacturers are actively shipping, but actual transactions are limited. At the same time, the operating rate of the butyl acetate industry remains low, and the price increase from manufacturers also has a boosting effect. The market supply is limited, and the price of butyl acetate remains stable.

Market forecast: Currently, the cost side price of butyl acetate in the market is weak, with limited support for butyl acetate. Downstream demand is average, and there is insufficient new market transactions. There is a lack of effective positive news on the market. It is expected that the butyl acetate market will consolidate at a low level in the future, and attention will be paid to the price execution of raw material acetic acid, n-butanol, and ethyl acetate manufacturers in the future.

In April, the domestic EVA market continued to decline, with spot prices generally dropping significantly. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of April 30th, the benchmark price of EVA in China was 11333.33 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5.03% compared to April 1st.

Fundamental analysis

In terms of raw materials:

In terms of raw material ethylene, the domestic spot supply situation was tight in early April, coupled with the maintenance of ethylene plants in neighboring countries, supporting the strong operation of ethylene prices. Mid month market consolidation volume lacks further guidance. With the recovery of supply, the number of offers in the latter half of the year began to increase. At the same time, domestic demand has remained stable with a slight decline, and supply pressure is gradually increasing. It is expected that the ethylene market may be weak after the holiday;

The market for vinyl acetate also fluctuated and consolidated during the month. Both supply and demand have decreased in the early stage, leading to a stalemate in the game. There were new production capacity investments in China within the month, but in the short term, self consumption and digestion did not create additional pressure on supply. However, the downstream load is gradually decreasing, and the consumption of vinyl acetate has decreased to some extent. The spot price of vinyl acetate in the market is fluctuating. Based on the performance of the upstream secondary material market in April, the cost support for EVA has generally remained flat.

In terms of supply:

In early April, the load level of domestic EVA enterprises continued to reach a high level of nearly 90% of the average construction at the end of March, leading to high supply pressure in the industry and a loss of focus on factory pricing. With the successive maintenance of Ningbo Formosa Plastics, Zhongke Refining and Chemical, and Zhejiang Petrochemical, the operating rate at the end of the month has significantly dropped to around 70%, and production has also decreased simultaneously. Although the current on-site supply of goods remains abundant, the supply pressure has eased compared to the beginning of the month. However, overall, the supply side still lacks support for EVA.

In terms of demand:

The demand side performance of EVA remained weak in April. The new quarter orders for foamed shoe materials have already exhausted their market driving effect at the beginning of the month, and traditional downstream purchases such as cable materials are weak. The purchasing level of photovoltaic enterprises is lower than expected, and on-site trading is concentrated in low-end offers. The buyer camp has poor confidence and is mainly cautious in pre holiday stocking, with no significant increase in volume observed. There are very few new orders in the market, which has led to an increase in actual orders, discounts, and sales by merchants. During April, there was a significant drag on the EVA price trend from the demand side.

Technical analysis

The probability of an increase in EVA’s future market is lower than that of a decrease, and spot prices may be weak and difficult to improve. The prediction model of the Business Society’s commodity analysis system shows that since March 24, 2024, the 7-day moving average has crossed the 30 day moving average and started a downward trend. Currently, both moving averages continue to decline in the same direction. On April 21, 2024, it is estimated that the probability of a change in operating trend (i.e. crossing the 7-day moving average above the 30 day moving average) occurring within the next 7 days is 37.28%.

Historical price monitoring [mid low level]: Since the beginning of 2024, EVA prices have risen first and then fallen. The current monitoring positions are 1-year low, 2-year low, and 3-year medium low. According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the average EVA price in the past three years is 17299.91 yuan/ton, with a median value of 19433.33 yuan/ton, a minimum value of 11333.33 yuan/ton, and a maximum value of 27533.33 yuan/ton. The low price difference (compared to the lowest price difference in the past three years) is 0 yuan/ton, and the top price difference (compared to the highest price difference in the past three years) is -16200 yuan/ton.

In April, the 30 day off average price of EVA dropped from -65.56 yuan to -331.11 yuan, indicating a sustained decline in EVA prices.

Future Market Forecast

The current domestic EVA market price has been continuously declining for more than a month, but there is still no clear turning point. Firstly, from a fundamental perspective, the secondary raw material market is expected to remain stable with little movement, and future changes may still be limited, providing support for the spot market to become smoother. There is little possibility of a rebound in demand after the end of the period, and the market may still be struggling to maintain the demand line. Technically speaking, the probability of crossing the 30 day line above the 7-day line in the short term is relatively low, while the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe indicates a higher probability of continuing the weak trend of EVA in the future. In summary, it is expected that the EVA market will be mainly weak and consolidating after the holiday. It is recommended to closely monitor the supply side trends.

In April, the domestic titanium tetrachloride market saw steady growth. According to the monitoring system of Shengyishe, as of April 29th, the benchmark price of titanium tetrachloride in Shengyishe was 10825.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.41% compared to the beginning of this month (10675.00 yuan/ton).

Raw material side: In April, the market price of titanium concentrate in the Panxi region remained stable, with a moderate to weak trend. According to the monitoring system of Shengyishe, as of April 29th, the benchmark price of Shengyishe titanium concentrate was 2300.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of -0.72% compared to the beginning of this month (2316.67 yuan/ton).

The market price of high titanium slag raw materials has rebounded. Due to the high level of titanium ore and the rise in electricity prices in Liaoning region, the cost of enterprises has been under pressure, and the quotation is firm.

The demand for downstream sponge titanium market has increased, and the market trading atmosphere is good.

Business Society’s titanium tetrachloride analyst believes that the high cost side of titanium tetrachloride is under pressure, and downstream sponge titanium market demand has increased, creating a good trading atmosphere in the market. Recently, market prices have remained stable.

The lithium hexafluorophosphate market declined weakly in April. At present, the mainstream price of lithium hexafluorophosphate is around 71-7200 yuan/ton.

In terms of raw materials:

This month, the price of raw material lithium carbonate has remained stable, with only a slight decrease. According to customs data, the domestic import of lithium carbonate in March was about 19043 tons, a month on month increase of about 64%, reflecting a more significant growth rate in the domestic import supply of lithium carbonate. According to the monitoring system of Shengyishe, as of April 26th, the benchmark price of Shengyishe lithium carbonate was 108400.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.31% compared to the beginning of this month (107000.00 yuan/ton).

Downstream aspect:

Downstream electrolyte companies have a wait-and-see attitude, with a cold purchasing atmosphere and only maintaining a rigid demand for purchases. Due to some enterprises having a certain amount of reserves, their demand for raw materials is not active, market transmission is not smooth, and there is no good news. Overall, the downstream mainly focuses on observation.

Post forecast:

According to data analysts from Business Society, the price of raw material lithium carbonate has slightly decreased, but overall, the production cost pressure on lithium hexafluorophosphate enterprises remains significant. Most enterprises mainly consume inventory. Overall, it is expected that the lithium hexafluorophosphate market will operate weakly and steadily.