According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic industrial grade 85% formic acid market continued to operate steadily in early November, with an average price of 2775 yuan/ton, unchanged from the same period in October.

Market situation: The decline in raw material prices has weakened support for formic acid, and downstream industries continue to make essential purchases. The formic acid market is mainly stable.

Upstream methanol, the domestic methanol market has recently surged and fallen, with no practical support for downstream demand, and market sentiment is cold. It is expected that the reduction in import volume in the later stage and the expected restrictions on the use of natural gas at home and abroad will further provide support for the methanol market, leading to a strong and volatile trend in its prices.

The formic acid data analyst from Shengyi Society believes that there are favorable factors for upstream methanol, which may provide certain support for the formic acid market. Specific market changes still need to be monitored.

Market summary: The phenomenon of supply differentiation between the north and south regions still exists during the week, and the supply in the east China region is still tight. With the support of cost, the domestic acrylonitrile market is fluctuating upwards.

On the supply side: During the week, a 130000 ton production line of Zhejiang Petrochemical’s 1 # acrylonitrile plant was recently shut down for maintenance. Currently, the remaining two lines are operating, and the overall load has dropped to less than 50%. The capacity utilization rate in the East China region has decreased, and the supply is tight. The northern market is basically operating normally, and the capacity utilization rate of the domestic acrylonitrile industry has reached 73.42%, an increase of 0.02% compared to the same period last week. The total output of the factory during the week was 67900 tons, and the inventory of acrylonitrile enterprises was 49400 tons. Currently, there is no inventory pressure in the industry.

In terms of cost: This week, the price of propylene in Shandong’s market fluctuated at a high level, with the mainstream closing reference being 6870-7000 yuan/ton. At present, the inventory of propylene enterprises is mostly at a low level. With the rise of propylene prices to a high level, the downstream sentiment of gradually increasing prices has weakened, which may support or weaken the price trend.

In terms of demand, the utilization rate of downstream ABS production capacity has increased to 68.82%, an increase of 7.32% compared to the same period last week at 61.5%, indicating an increase in demand for acrylonitrile.

Market expectation: Currently, the supply differentiation between the North and South regions continues, and the domestic acrylonitrile market is expected to remain strong. The supply in the East China region is still tight, and the current industry inventory is not under pressure. Main manufacturers will continue to raise prices. However, with abundant supply in the north and overall supply-demand balance in the country, there are also obstacles to continued market growth.

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the market for locally refined petroleum coke rose in October. The mainstream average price of petroleum coke products from major domestic refineries was 1478.50 yuan/ton on October 31 and 1428.50 yuan/ton on October 1, with a monthly increase of 3.50%.

Cost wise: International oil prices fluctuated in October, with a significant increase in crude oil market prices at the beginning of the month. On the one hand, the tense geopolitical situation in the Middle East has had an impact, which is positive news for international oil prices. On the other hand, the supply of crude oil remains tight. The OPEC+2.2 million barrels per day production reduction before the end of November will still be effective, and some oil producing countries have stated that they will carry out compensatory production cuts. The supply shortage still exists, and the international crude oil price trend is rising. In mid to late October, oil prices began to fall, and the geopolitical situation in the Middle East is controllable. In addition, the future demand for crude oil market is worrying, which has led to a continuous decline in the oil market. Overall, the price of crude oil market has not changed much and is mainly fluctuating.

Supply side: During the National Day holiday, the crude oil market rose, the domestic commodity market pushed up, local refineries shipped normally during the holiday, downstream receiving sentiment was positive, and with downstream demand support after the holiday, the market for local refined petroleum coke continued to rise in the first half of October; In the second half of October, downstream purchases will be made on demand, and refineries will actively ship. Refineries will adjust the price of petroleum coke based on indicators and inventory. In October, the spot of low sulfur petroleum coke at the port was limited, with low inventory and increased market inquiries.

On the demand side: The overall market situation of 10 metal silicon is not volatile, and the supply of silicon enterprises in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Shaanxi, and Shandong is relatively stable. Yunnan mainly delivers early orders, and the overall price on the supply side is relatively low and stable. The overall purchasing volume of silicon metal downstream is limited, and downstream purchases are cautious, with a strong wait-and-see attitude. The overall market recovery from the demand side is average. At present, the demand for purchasing petroleum coke from metallic silicon is average, and the support for the petroleum coke market is average.

The market for sulfur calcined coke in October first rose and then fell, with limited downstream demand. Currently, most companies are pre-saleing orders for next month, and downstream customers are mainly observing and waiting.

The daily production of Yunnan electrolytic aluminum enterprises is at a high level, and the upward space has narrowed. However, recently, Southern Power Grid announced that Yunnan electrolytic aluminum may lift power restrictions this winter and next spring, and downstream electrolytic aluminum in Yunnan is expected to not reduce production in the fourth quarter; Downstream multiple sectors have experienced a rebound in operating rates, with electrolytic aluminum and aluminum rod inventories both experiencing slight destocking. Aluminum carbon enterprises have stable demand and mainly purchase on demand.

Market forecast: Currently, downstream demand for petroleum coke in the refining industry is increasing, supporting the petroleum coke market. However, the latest pricing for pre baked anodes in November has slightly declined, and carbon companies are showing a strong wait-and-see attitude. It is expected that petroleum coke prices will be adjusted narrowly based on indicators and inventory in the near future.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the domestic price of LLDPE (7042) was 8258 yuan/ton on October 1st, and the average price was 8466 yuan/ton on October 30th, with a price increase of 2.52% during this period.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the domestic price of LDPE (2426H) was 10500 yuan/ton on October 1st, and the average price was 10866 yuan/ton on October 30th, with a price increase of 3.49% during this period.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the domestic price of HDPE (2426H) was 8125 yuan/ton on October 1st, and the average price was 8475 yuan/ton on October 30th, with a price increase of 4.31% during this period.

The overall trend of polyethylene in October was strong, with a significant increase occurring after the National Day holiday. During the National Day holiday, due to the tense situation in the Middle East, the crude oil market rose. After the holiday, the polyethylene market was boosted by favorable conditions, and prices increased significantly. The demand for agricultural film in October has entered the peak season, and there are positive expectations from the consumer side. On the supply side, with an increase in maintenance equipment and a reduction in supply, multiple favorable factors have boosted the upward trend of polyethylene prices. Starting from mid month, most enterprise quotations have remained firm, with a significant decline in high-voltage products. There are expectations of an increase in the supply side of high-voltage products, and some enterprises have restarted their equipment, which has suppressed the continuous downward movement of high-voltage product prices. In addition, the market has a resistance to high priced goods, and the market demand is lower than expected, resulting in low downstream enthusiasm for receiving goods. Most of the essential needs are mainly purchased at low prices. As the end of the month approaches, polyethylene is undergoing a weak and narrow adjustment. In order to promote transactions, businesses are actively offering discounts and shipping.

On October 31st, the Dalian Commodity Exchange polyethylene L2501 contract opened at 8071 yuan and closed at 8150 yuan, up 76 yuan, with a high of 8166 yuan and a low of 8061 yuan, up 0.94%. The October futures market trend is weak, suppressing the spot market.

The maintenance of the polyethylene plant in the fourth quarter is limited, but the supply is sufficient, and new production capacity is gradually being put into operation; The demand for agricultural film is gradually weakening in November, and it is expected that polyethylene will mainly show a weak trend.

Recently, the domestic ABS market has been stable with some weakness, and spot prices of various grades have fluctuated. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of October 30th, the average price of ABS sample products was 11500 yuan/ton, an increase or decrease of -0.11% compared to the price level on October 1st.

Fundamental analysis

Supply level: At the end of October, the load level of the domestic ABS industry slightly increased. Recently, some maintenance facilities in northern Huajin and Tianjin Dagu have resumed work, and the industry’s operating rate has increased by 5% to nearly 67%. The overall amount of goods produced on-site is slightly more than digested. The supply remains at a sufficient level, and the macroeconomic atmosphere in the early stage has stimulated some short positions. The current situation is basically exhausted, and the effect of destocking is limited. Currently, the inventory position remains at a high level of over 180000 tons. Overall, the current supply side’s support for ABS spot prices has weakened.

Cost factor: During late October, the upstream three materials of ABS showed two increases and one flat trend, which eased the drag on the cost side of ABS. The acrylonitrile market continues to rise. Some regions experienced a contraction in spot supply within the next ten days, prompting producers to raise prices accordingly. At the same time, the overall inventory position of the industry is moderate, providing ample room for the market to rise. The increase in operating rates of downstream products has also raised demand expectations, and it is expected that the acrylonitrile market will continue to rise.

Recently, the domestic butadiene market has been consolidating sideways, and the good news of replenishing inventory after the holiday has been completely digested. At the same time, the industry’s production has increased and supply has increased, resulting in a decrease in supply and demand, and the market is under pressure. However, as downstream markets such as synthetic rubber shift profits from butadiene, consumer power also builds a bottom for the butadiene market. The current spot market is balanced by long and short positions, with prices generally stable and fluctuating slightly.

Recently, the styrene market has continued to rise. The current basis continues to strengthen, and monthly negotiations are mainly focused on exchanges. Styrene inventory has decreased in Jiangsu ports and in South China ports. Combined with last week’s decline in industry operating rates, the styrene market has shifted from a decline to an increase. There are many inquiries in the current market, and actual orders are cautious. It is expected that the styrene market will slightly strengthen and consolidate in the short term.

In terms of demand: At the end of October, the main terminal demand for ABS has not yet shown the peak season level. With the decline of stocking up and short selling after the beginning of the month, the market has returned to the off-season trend, and there is a strong wait-and-see sentiment. The high-temperature holiday for home appliance manufacturers has basically ended, but the overall load position of downstream factories is slowly recovering. The recovery of terminal demand is slow, and stocking operations are mainly based on weak demand to maintain production. Traders lack confidence in the future market, their willingness to build warehouses decreases, and their offers are subject to market conditions, resulting in a slower flow of goods. Overall, the demand side is not providing strong support to the market.

Future forecast

At the end of October, the domestic ABS prices showed weak consolidation. Upstream three materials saw two increases and one leveling off, providing comprehensive support for the cost side of ABS to stabilize. The load of ABS polymerization plant has slightly increased, while the high inventory of finished products remains unchanged. The weak demand on the demand side is difficult to change, and market trading is weak. The mismatch between supply and demand within the venue has not been effectively improved. It is expected that the ABS market will mainly operate weakly in the short term in the future.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of October 29th, the reference average price of domestic urea market was 2175 yuan/ton, which is 0.83% higher than the reference average price of 2157 yuan/ton on October 1st.

2、 Market analysis

market conditions

The domestic urea market price fluctuated and rose in October, but then fell weakly. As of October 29th, the ex factory price of urea in Shandong region is around 1770-1810 yuan/ton, in Hebei region it is around 1810-1830 yuan/ton, in Henan region it is around 1810 yuan/ton, and in Liaoning region it is around 1890 yuan/ton.

According to the weekly K-bar chart from July 29, 2024 to October 21, 2024, it can be seen that the domestic ammonium sulfate cycle is fluctuating. The maximum increase in October was 0.93% in the week of the 10th and 7th, and the maximum decrease was -1.18% in the week of the 10th and 21st,

Supply and demand situation

In terms of supply, the urea market has ample supply this month. In terms of demand, agricultural demand maintains essential procurement, market trading is average, and transactions are limited. At present, the supply and demand are relatively balanced.

3、 Future forecast

Business Society’s urea analyst believes that the urea market has been steadily consolidating and operating in recent days. At present, there is no positive news in the market, with downstream demand being the main focus. It is expected that the domestic urea market prices will experience a slight consolidation and operation in the short term.

Market Overview

This week, the trading atmosphere in the melamine market was cold, and the price continued to decline weakly, but the decline has slowed down. Although it rose yesterday, the magnitude was not significant. As of October 25th, the benchmark price of melamine in Shengyi Society was 6712.50 yuan/ton, a decrease of -0.37% compared to the beginning of this month (6737.50 yuan/ton).

Supply side

Recently, the overall price of urea in the domestic market has remained stable, with some factories in certain regions slightly raising their prices. In mainstream regions, there have been a certain number of transactions at the low-end price of urea enterprises, with an increase of 10-30 yuan/ton. On October 25th, the benchmark price of urea in Shengyi Society was 2175.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.83% compared to the beginning of this month (2157.00 yuan/ton). At present, the low-end transactions in the domestic urea market have slightly improved, and downstream merchants are purchasing in moderation at low prices. High price transactions are still weak, and the overall transaction situation is still weak, with a slightly stagnant market atmosphere.

In terms of demand

Recently, the melamine market has cooled down, and demand has been moderately followed up. It is reported that some sheet metal factories have recently reduced their operating load, and considering that the supply of melamine will increase in the later maintenance and restoration of multiple factories, downstream manufacturers and traders have reduced their demand for melamine procurement.

This week, China’s melamine production was 27500 tons, an increase of 12.70% compared to last week. Next week, some maintenance facilities in Anhui, Shandong, and Sichuan will gradually resume shipments, and the supply of melamine may increase.

Overall

The progress of the melamine market is average, with slow recovery of early maintenance equipment and lower than expected increase in supply, supporting the sentiment of manufacturers. Prices have slightly increased. However, in the long run, with the gradual recovery of supply and the release of new production capacity last month, the melamine market is not favorable enough, and prices may still decline. However, considering the high cost, it is expected that the overall decline will be limited.

Recently, the price of locally refined petroleum coke has slightly increased. As of October 28th, the price of locally refined petroleum coke in the Shandong market was 1478.50 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.34% from 1473.50 yuan/ton on October 21st.

Cost wise: Recently, the overall rise in crude oil prices has been positive for international oil prices due to the tense geopolitical situation in the Middle East. On the other hand, the supply of crude oil remains tight. The OPEC+2.2 million barrels per day production reduction before the end of November will still be effective, and some oil producing countries have stated that they will carry out compensatory production cuts. The supply shortage still exists, and the international crude oil price trend is rising. In addition, the local economy in Asia has improved, and the market’s panic on demand has eased, boosting the international oil market. Finally, the decrease in US crude oil inventories supported the oil market positively.

Supply side: Recently, downstream demand for refined petroleum coke has been stocking up to support the petroleum coke market. The price of petroleum coke is affected by indicators, and prices fluctuate. Recently, there has been limited availability of low sulfur petroleum coke in the port, with low inventory and increased market inquiries.

On the demand side: Currently, the supply of silicon enterprises in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Shaanxi, and Shandong regions is relatively stable, while Yunnan region mainly delivers early-stage orders, and the overall price on the supply side is relatively low and stable. At present, the demand for purchasing petroleum coke from metallic silicon is average, and its support for the petroleum coke market is limited.

Recently, the market for medium sulfur calcined coke has remained stable, with limited downstream demand. Currently, most companies are pre-saleing orders for next month, and downstream customers are mainly observing and waiting.

The daily production of Yunnan electrolytic aluminum enterprises is at a high level, and the upward space has narrowed. However, recently, Southern Power Grid announced that Yunnan electrolytic aluminum may lift power restrictions this winter and next spring, and downstream electrolytic aluminum in Yunnan is expected to not reduce production in the fourth quarter; Downstream multiple sectors have experienced a rebound in operating rates, with electrolytic aluminum and aluminum rod inventories both experiencing slight destocking.

Market forecast: Currently, downstream demand for petroleum coke in the refining industry is increasing, supporting the petroleum coke market. It is expected that the price of petroleum coke will be adjusted narrowly based on indicators and inventory in the near future.

1、 Price trend

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of light soda ash remained stable this week. On October 25th, the average market price of soda ash was 1594 yuan/ton, and on October 21st, the price of soda ash was 1594 yuan/ton. The price remained stable during the week, with a 1.24% decrease from the beginning of the month.

2、 Market analysis

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the overall soda ash market has been weak and stable this week. On the supply side, the utilization rate of soda ash production capacity has slightly increased, the market supply has increased, and the prices at the beginning of the week have mostly stabilized; In terms of demand, the downstream market has risen, which has boosted the mentality of the soda ash market. However, due to the high inventory and consumption in the early stage of the downstream market, actual transactions in the market are limited, and only some areas of soda ash have slightly increased during the week.

As of October 25th, the reference price for the soda ash market in East China is around 1420-1600 yuan/ton for light soda ash; The reference price for the soda ash market in Central China is around 1370-1600 yuan/ton for the mainstream price of light soda ash.

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the downstream glass market has risen strongly. From October 21st to 25th, the price of glass increased from 14.75 yuan/square meter to 15.00 yuan/square meter, an increase of 1.69%. The demand in the glass market has increased, manufacturers are shipping smoothly, total inventory of enterprises has decreased, glass prices have been raised narrowly, and the overall market trend has been strong during the week.

Future forecast: Currently, the utilization rate of domestic soda ash production capacity remains high, and there is still inventory pressure on spot soda ash factories. The downstream glass price market is improving, which may provide positive support for the soda ash market. Under the supply-demand game, it is expected that soda ash will experience a narrow consolidation in the short term, with specific attention paid to downstream demand follow-up.

Product Name: Pure Benzene

Latest price: On October 24th, the average market price was 7388 yuan/ton.

Analysis: Today, the domestic pure benzene market continues to operate strongly, with Shandong local refining continuing to slightly increase, and the atmosphere of on-site negotiations is still acceptable. Although there will be a typhoon impact next week, the high inventory at the port makes it difficult for the typhoon to have a sustained impact on the price trend. It is expected that the pure benzene market will fluctuate and consolidate in the short term.