According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of coking coal has remained stable this week. From July 9th to July 12th, the average price of coking coal was 2045 yuan/ton.

The coking coal market has been operating steadily this week. At present, coal mines in Shanxi are operating normally with a balanced market supply and demand, but there is not much room for growth. The support for the coke market is still acceptable, and the coke market is currently running steadily. In terms of supply, there has been little change in the production of coke enterprises, and the supply of coke is relatively stable. Enterprises are actively releasing their inventory. On the demand side, downstream steel mills are under market pressure and are cautious in procurement, mainly focusing on on-demand procurement.

According to analysts from Shengyi Society, the price of coking coal has remained stable this week, and the downstream coking enterprise market has been operating steadily recently. The steel market is under pressure, and the purchase of coke is cautious. The demand for coking coal is average, and the overall supply-demand game mainly focuses on the short-term price or pressure operation of coking coal, with specific consideration given to downstream market demand. It is expected that the price of coking coal will remain stable in the short term, and attention still needs to be paid to the supply and demand situation and the transaction of building materials in the future.

Analysis: This week (7.8-12), the liquid ammonia market in Shandong was sluggish, with prices fluctuating and falling. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the main production area of Shandong experienced a weekly decline of 2.34%. The main reason is that the maintenance equipment has resumed work one after another, and the supply side has shown loose performance. Coupled with the increase in urea to ammonia conversion by manufacturers, the supply has significantly increased, and the rise in ammonia volume has dragged down ammonia prices. From the beginning of the week to the middle of the week, some mainstream large factories in Shandong generally lowered their prices by 100-200 yuan/ton. Distributors mainly underreport shipments. And downstream procurement enthusiasm is not high, agricultural demand is still in the off-season, industrial demand remains rigid, and the overall demand side is bearish. At present, the mainstream quotation in Shandong region is between 2600-2800 yuan/ton.

Prediction: In the near future, agricultural demand procurement will slow down, industrial demand will follow suit, and supply will be sufficient. However, supply pressure may partially ease in the later stage. On the one hand, the main production areas in the north will hover or tighten supply with low prices. On the other hand, the export of liquid ammonia may improve. From the demand side, agricultural demand may be affected by inventory consumption, and there is room for improvement in later orders, while industrial demand urgently needs to follow up. Taking all factors into consideration, liquid ammonia may stop falling next week, and there is a possibility of a price rebound.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of July 11th, the reference average price of domestic urea market was 2443 yuan/ton, which is 1.37% lower than the reference average price of 2477 yuan/ton on July 4th.

2、 Market analysis

market conditions

This week, the domestic urea market prices have been running weakly. As of July 11th, the ex factory price of urea in Shandong region is around 2240-2280 yuan/ton, in Hebei region it is around 2280 yuan/ton, and in Henan region it is around 2290 yuan/ton.

Supply and demand situation

In terms of supply, the urea market currently has sufficient supply, and the market has a strong cautious and wait-and-see attitude. In terms of demand, agricultural demand remains primarily driven by essential needs. The downstream compound fertilizer production is stable, and the demand for urea remains stable.

3、 Future forecast

Business Society’s urea analyst believes that the urea market has been weak and volatile in recent days. At present, the demand for summer agriculture is still high, but there is more supply in the urea market, and downstream purchases are mainly made at low prices. It is expected that the domestic urea market prices will fluctuate and consolidate in the short term.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, in June 2024, the domestic lead ingot market fluctuated and rose. The average price in the domestic market was 18675 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, 19205 yuan/ton at the end of the month, with a monthly increase of 2.84%.

On June 30, the lead commodity index was 116.88, a decrease of 12.78% from the highest point in the cycle of 134.01 points (2016-11-29), and an increase of 56.61% from the lowest point of 74.63 points on March 19, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-09-01 present).

On June 30th, the base metal index was 1333 points, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 17.51% from the highest point in the cycle of 1616 points (2022-03-09), and an increase of 107.63% from the lowest point of 642 points on November 24th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-12-01 present).

K-bar chart of commodity prices, using the concept of price trend K-line, reflects the weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations. In 2024, the price of lead ingots mostly increased, with only a 1.77% drop in February and an increase of over 2.8% in other months. Judging from the weekly K-bar chart, the market has seen more ups and downs in recent times.

Macroscopically, the ISM service industry in the United States unexpectedly fell significantly short of expectations in June, with the fastest contraction rate in four years. The June ISM service industry PMI in the United States was 48.8, significantly lower than the expected 52.6, and May was 53.8. Business activities have sharply declined, new orders have also significantly declined, the price index is at its lowest in three months, and the employment index has shrunk for the fifth consecutive month. After the data was released, US bond yields significantly declined, gold rose, and the US dollar fell.

According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, the Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) of China’s manufacturing industry in June was 49.5%, unchanged from the previous month, indicating a stable outlook for the manufacturing industry. The non manufacturing business activity index is 50.5%, a decrease of 0.6 percentage points from the previous month, above the critical point, and the non manufacturing industry continues to expand. The comprehensive PMI output index is 50.5%, a decrease of 0.5 percentage points from the previous month and above the critical point.

The overall lead ingot market fluctuated and rose in June. Starting from May to June, the lead-acid battery market entered the off-season of the industry, with a clear downward trend in enterprise operating rates and a weak trend in terminal demand. Fundamentally speaking, the supply of lead concentrate continues to be tight. Currently, some refineries in Jiangxi have stopped production due to certificate renewal reasons, while some in Jiangsu have stopped production for about a week for equipment maintenance. Next week, some refineries in Anhui plan to stop production for maintenance, resulting in a tight supply of primary lead. In terms of recycled lead, in the face of a shortage of waste battery supply, multiple recycled lead refineries experienced production cuts and shutdowns again in June due to insufficient raw materials, resulting in an overall decline in operating rates. From a cost perspective, the current tight supply pattern of lead concentrate and waste batteries continues, making it difficult to reduce costs and providing strong support for lead prices. From the demand side, currently in the off-season of downstream demand, on-demand procurement is the main focus, and there is little improvement in the short term. It is expected that the lead ingot market will remain stable with a strong trend in the short term.

According to data from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the production and sales of automobiles in May 2024 were 2.372 million and 2.417 million, respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 1.7% and 1.5%. From January to May 2024, the production and sales of automobiles reached 11.384 million and 11.496 million respectively, an increase of 6.5% and 8.3% year-on-year.

According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, China’s lead production in May 2024 was 687000 tons, an increase of 8.9% year-on-year. From January to May 2024, China’s lead production was 3.252 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 4.2%

According to the International Lead and Zinc Research Group ILZSG, the global lead market experienced a shortage of 22600 tons in April 2024 and 3400 tons in March. From January to April 2024, the global lead market had an oversupply of 7000 tons, compared to a shortage of 7800 tons in the same period last year.

According to data released by the World Bureau of Metals Statistics (WBMS), in April 2024, there was a global surplus of 184000 tons of zinc sheet supply and 48400 tons of refined lead supply worldwide. From January to April 2024, there was an oversupply of 193600 tons of zinc sheets and 141900 tons of refined lead worldwide.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, the PP market experienced a narrow range of fluctuations in early July, with prices of various brand products stabilizing slightly. As of the afternoon of July 9th, the mainstream offer price for wire drawing by domestic producers and traders is around 7985.71 yuan/ton, which is the same as the price on July 1st.

Price trend

In terms of raw materials:

Recently, international crude oil prices have continued their previous high levels, and the market has taken on the positive news of OPEC+production cuts and the impact of the peak summer fuel consumption season in the United States. The high oil prices have fluctuated horizontally, providing strong support for the PP market. The circulation speed of propylene has slowed down, but the overall price has remained stable and slightly decreased due to the support of crude oil. Due to the expectation of higher prices for liquefied gas, propane has been driven and prices have increased, resulting in a positive trend in the production of PDH. Overall, the recent cost guidance for PP still comes from the remote cost of crude oil, and the support for PP from various raw materials is still acceptable.

In terms of supply:

In early July, the load level of domestic PP enterprises was 70% higher than the average operating level at the end of June. Some devices have undergone short repairs within ten days, with limited changes in operating rates. The industry operating rate has fluctuated and adjusted around 71%. Although there has been a narrow increase in production, there has been no increase in inventory, and the factory pricing of enterprises has remained stable. The current on-site supply of goods remains abundant, with supply pressure fluctuating. Some production lines are still resuming work in the future, and it is expected that there will be an increasing trend in on-site supply.

In terms of demand:

In early July, the demand side of PP performed poorly, and the load on end enterprises remained generally stable. Among them, the consumption of woven bags such as fertilizers and cement is at the off-season level, while the operating rate of plastic weaving enterprises is relatively low at 41%, and the enthusiasm for replenishment is not strong. Due to high raw material prices, slow cost transfer, and low profit margins, the replenishment operation of film companies revolves around rigid demand. The comprehensive operating rate of injection molding enterprises is 56%, basically stabilizing. The trading atmosphere in the downstream market of PP is average, with limited new orders and mostly pre delivery contracts. The demand side creates a certain drag on the PP market.

Future Market Forecast

The current domestic PP market prices are experiencing narrow fluctuations and are operating in a stalemate. The comprehensive support for upstream raw materials is strong, but the demand for PP is at the off-season level. The tug and tug between cost and demand has basically smoothed out the long and short positions in the short term. The supply and demand trend in the future market is stable with some increases, and there may be limited improvement in the consumption pattern. Overall, it is expected that the PP market will remain stagnant in mid July.

1、 Price trend

Taking the sulfuric acid method rutile type titanium dioxide, which has a large volume of sales in the domestic market, as an example, according to data monitoring by Business Society, the domestic titanium dioxide market has remained stable this week, with an average price of 15783.33 yuan/ton.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the domestic titanium dioxide market is temporarily stable and consolidating. Overall, the international export situation of titanium dioxide is still acceptable. The demand in the domestic terminal market is weak, with high prices in the raw material titanium ore market and continuous increases in sulfuric acid prices. Due to the impact of raw materials, there is significant pressure on the production cost of titanium dioxide, and limited room for price downward adjustment. Due to various reasons such as power grid maintenance, some enterprises still have maintenance plans this month, which to some extent alleviates the current market pressure. As of now, most domestic sulfuric acid based rutile titanium dioxide quotations are between 15300 and 16200 yuan/ton; The quotation for rutile titanium dioxide is around 14500-15000 yuan/ton. The actual transaction price is negotiable.

In terms of titanium concentrate, the market price of titanium concentrate in the Panxi region is strong and upward. Affected by the supply of raw materials, mining enterprises in the Panxi region have insufficient production, resulting in a tight spot market and high prices of titanium ore. However, the downstream titanium dioxide enterprises have a weak market situation and poor market demand. The trading of titanium concentrate is mostly wait-and-see, and market procurement is cautious. As of now, the tax-free quotation for 38-42 grade titanium ore is around 1570-1580 yuan/ton, the tax-free quotation for 46 grade 10 titanium concentrate is around 2200-2250 yuan/ton, and the quotation for 47 grade 20 titanium concentrate is around 2500-2630 yuan/ton. In the short term, the price of Panxi titanium concentrate continues to operate at a high level, and the specific actual transaction price will be negotiated separately.

3、 Future Market Forecast

The titanium dioxide analyst from Business Society believes that currently, the price of titanium concentrate in Panxi region is strong and upward, while the price of sulfuric acid is upward, with good support for raw materials. The cost of titanium dioxide is under pressure, and some prices are approaching the cost. The overall downward space for the titanium dioxide market is limited. It is expected that the situation of purchasing goods will improve in the short term, and the actual transaction price will be negotiated separately.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Shengyishe, the price of caustic soda has rebounded after stopping its decline. On July 1st, the average market price in Shandong was around 794 yuan/ton, and on July 3rd, the average market price was 800 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 0.76%.

2、 Market analysis

According to the commodity analysis system of Business Society, the maintenance of equipment in the Shandong region has boosted the downstream market mentality and increased the enthusiasm for downstream procurement. The price of caustic soda in Hubei region is currently stable, with a mainstream market price of around 970-1050 yuan/ton for 32% ion exchange membrane caustic soda. The price of caustic soda in Shandong region has slightly increased, with a mainstream market price of around 760-850 yuan/ton for 32% ion exchange membrane caustic soda. The mainstream transaction in Jiangsu region is around 860-940 yuan/ton.

According to the price monitoring of Business Society, in the 26th week of 2024 (6.24-6.28), there were 0 products that rose, 2 products that fell, and 5 products that rose or fell to 0 in the chlor alkali industry price list. The main commodities falling are PVC (-1.59%) and caustic soda (-0.25%). The average increase and decrease this week is -0.26%.

Analysts from Business Society believe that in recent times, the price of caustic soda has stopped falling and rebounded, with prices rising. Some liquid alkali enterprises in Shandong have low inventory and decent shipments. Downstream demand for alumina is slightly better than in the early stage. The comprehensive supply-demand game predicts that caustic soda will maintain a stable and upward trend in the later stage, depending on downstream market demand.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the overall price of soda ash fell in June. The average market price of light soda ash at the beginning of the month was 2170 yuan/ton, and the average market price at the end of the month was around 2090 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 3.69% and an increase of 6.63% compared to the same period last year. On June 30th, the commodity index of light soda ash was 107.18, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 43.32% from the highest point in the cycle of 189.10 points (2021-11-07), and an increase of 69.72% from the lowest point of 63.15 points on November 18th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2011 to present)

2、 Market analysis

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the overall price of soda ash has been weak this month. On the supply side, the operating rate of soda ash is relatively high, the market inventory is sufficient, and the production and sales of enterprises are weak; On the demand side, the terminal market is weak, and downstream purchasing enthusiasm is not high. There is a lack of on-demand follow-up, and market trading is limited. Under the supply-demand game, the price of soda ash is weak and has been lowered. As of June 30, 2024, the prices of soda ash in East China have mainly stabilized, with mainstream market quotations for light soda ash around 2000-2250 yuan/ton. The prices of soda ash in Central China remain stable and watchful, with mainstream market quotations for light soda ash around 1900-2100 yuan/ton.

In terms of demand: According to the commodity analysis system of Business Society, the price of glass rose first and then fell this month. The average market price of glass at the beginning of the month was 19.86 yuan/square meter, and the average market price at the end of the month was 19.05 yuan/square meter, a decrease of 4.08%. The spot prices in the glass market are mainly weak, with downstream rigid demand for procurement, weak market demand, and a weak downward trend in price trends.

According to the price monitoring of Business Society, in the 26th week of 2024 (6.24-6.28), there were 0 products that rose, 2 products that fell, and 5 products that rose or fell to 0 in the chlor alkali industry price list. The main commodities falling are PVC (-1.59%) and caustic soda (-0.25%). The average increase and decrease this week is -0.26%.

Market forecast: According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyishe, the price of light soda ash has remained stable in the near future, with slight fluctuations in spot alkali plant equipment, and the supply side is still at a relatively high level. Downstream procurement is not active, and multi-dimensional support is needed to replenish inventory. The reduction in soda ash inventory is limited, and it is expected that soda ash may be weakly consolidated in the later stage, depending on downstream market demand.

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the recent weak consolidation of refined petroleum coke prices has led to a slight decline. As of June 24th, the price of refined petroleum coke in the Shandong market was 1482.75 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.34% from 1487.75 yuan/ton on June 17th.

Cost side: The crude oil market is fluctuating and rising. On the one hand, the tense geopolitical situation has resurfaced supply risks, and the supply and demand situation is favorable for the oil market. On the other hand, the Chinese economy continues to rebound and improve, coupled with the arrival of the peak oil consumption season in North America, strongly supporting oil prices. Multiple favorable factors have affected the upward trend of international oil prices, and the rate of change in crude oil remains positive.

Supply side: The recent weak consolidation of the local refining petroleum coke market is the main focus, and downstream purchases of petroleum coke are limited at the end of the month, with average transactions. Recently, imported petroleum coke has continued to arrive at ports, leading to an increase in domestic petroleum coke supply and overall weak support for the petroleum coke market.

On the demand side: As of June 27th, China has started operating 418 silicon metal furnaces, with an overall start-up rate of 57.03%, an increase of 17 furnaces compared to last week. The number of industrial silicon furnaces continues to rise, with significant new operations in Sichuan and Yunnan, and relatively stable operations in the northwest. At present, the demand for purchasing petroleum coke from metallic silicon is still acceptable, supporting the petroleum coke market.

In recent times, the overall market for medium sulfur calcined coke has remained stable, while the upstream refining petroleum coke market is weak. Currently, most enterprises are selling at a stable price, while downstream enterprises are mainly wait-and-see.

The recent consolidation of aluminum prices is mainly due to the expected increase in quantity on the supply side; Due to the steady resumption of production by Yunnan aluminum enterprises, the domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity is at a relatively high level, with a monthly month on month increase of 300000 tons. On the other hand, on the demand side, there is a downward trend in the operating rate of aluminum rods. Coupled with market demand, there are not many new orders for photovoltaic modules and building profiles, which are lower than expected. Downstream aluminum carbon enterprises maintain a rigid demand for petroleum coke procurement.

Market forecast: Currently, there is sufficient supply of petroleum coke in China, with high port inventories and limited downstream demand. Demand based procurement is the main focus, and it is expected that the local refining petroleum coke market will consolidate in the near future.

This week (6.24-6.28), the domestic price of ethyl acetate first fell and then stabilized. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of the 28th, the price of ethyl acetate was 6250 yuan/ton, which was 0.11% lower than the price of 6256.67 yuan/ton on June 24th during the week. The main reason is the decline in upstream prices and the negative impact on cost, resulting in a downward trend in the ethyl acetate market.

Market analysis: The ethyl acetate market has been weak and consolidating this week. On the supply side, the utilization rate of ethyl acetate production capacity is low, and there is no pressure on the supplier’s inventory, supporting the strong operation of ethyl acetate prices; On the raw material side, the price of acetic acid continues to decline, and cost support is weak. The upstream market is transmitted to the terminal market, affecting downstream purchasing. The entry into the market requires follow-up, and under the supply-demand game, the price of ethyl acetate has slightly decreased with the upstream market this week.

In the future, the upstream acetic acid price of ethyl acetate is continuously decreasing, and the cost side is negatively affected. The production and sales of ethyl acetate suppliers are relatively balanced, but downstream procurement is on demand. Coupled with the unstable market mentality affected by raw materials, it is expected that the ethyl acetate market may be weaker than operation in the later period. Please pay attention to the price execution of raw material acetic acid and ethyl acetate manufacturers. At present, the mainstream transaction price in the market is between 6100-6350 yuan/ton.