Recently, the domestic PTA spot market has maintained an upward trend, but the increase has narrowed compared to the previous period. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of December 24th, the average price of PTA market in East China was 4833 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.37% compared to December 18th.

In terms of supply, Yisheng Ningbo’s 2.2 million ton PTA plant will shut down on December 9th, and Jiaxing Petrochemical’s 1.5 million ton PTA plant will undergo maintenance on December 12th, with an unspecified restart date. Dushan Energy’s 2.7 million ton (designed capacity, actual capacity of 3 million tons) PTA plant will start production on December 20th, and we will pay attention to the subsequent load increase situation. From the perspective of the fourth quarter, there were not many overall maintenance of PTA plants, and the industry’s current operating rate is stable at around 86%, with an expected accumulation of inventory.

Geopolitical concerns, despite the unstable demand outlook, have limited the upward potential due to expectations of an excess of crude oil. As of December 24th, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $70.10 per barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was $73.58 per barrel. PX factories mainly focus on maintaining normal production, with sufficient domestic PX spot supply and high inventory background unchanged. In addition, with the approaching Christmas holiday, participants’ cautious trading mentality has increased.

Downstream polyester inventory pressure is not high, and a polymerization unit with an annual output of 125000 tons in Haining has been heated up and restarted, resulting in a slight increase in polyester production to 86%. Rigid demand remains stable under high loads, but lacks substantial driving force. From the perspective of terminal weaving, some spring orders have been placed, but the performance of new orders continues to be insufficient. Recently, new inquiries and orders have continued to narrow.

Business analysts believe that the continued volatility in the crude oil market provides sufficient support for PTA costs. However, with the production of qualified products from new PTA capacity and sufficient supply in the subsequent PTA market, the weak fundamentals may suppress price increases while maintaining rigid demand on the demand side.

Recently (12.15-12.23), the market price of Shunding rubber has slightly declined. According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of December 23, the market price of Shunding rubber in East China was 13860 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.43% from 13920 yuan/ton on December 15. The price of raw material butadiene has slightly increased, and the cost of butadiene rubber is supported; Stable production of butadiene rubber; Downstream all steel tire production has slightly rebounded. The supply price of Shunding rubber suppliers is stable, and the quotes from merchants have been slightly adjusted. As of December 23, the mainstream quotes for Shunding in Qilu, Daqing, Sichuan, and Yangtze in East China are 13700~14050 yuan/ton.

Recently (12.15-12.23), the price of butadiene has slightly increased, providing support for the cost of butadiene rubber. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of December 23, the price of butadiene was 10837 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.71% from 10450 yuan/ton on December 15.

Recently (12.15-12.23), there has been a slight fluctuation in the construction of domestic butadiene rubber plants, with overall construction around 7.7%.

Demand side: Downstream tires mainly provide essential support for the butadiene rubber market. As of December 20th, the operating load of semi steel tires in domestic tire enterprises is around 7.9%; The construction of all steel tires by tire enterprises in Shandong region has slightly increased to around 6.20% of the load.

Market forecast: From a fundamental perspective, analysts from Shengyi Society believe that the price of raw material butadiene will continue to rise slightly, and the cost of butadiene rubber will be supported; Recently, downstream construction has steadily increased slightly, providing support for the demand for butadiene rubber; However, the production of butadiene rubber has remained close to 80%, putting pressure on the supply side. Overall, the butadiene rubber market is expected to fluctuate within a certain range in the short term.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the 1 # tin ingot market in East China fell this week (12.16-12.20), with an average market price of 244260 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 242560 yuan/ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 0.7%.

The overall tin price has slightly decreased this week. Starting this week, tin prices continued their upward trend from last week, but over the weekend, they experienced a slight correction due to the hawkish interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. However, the fundamental support is strong, and downstream customers have better acceptance after the price decline, resulting in a large amount of destocking exceeding expectations.

Fundamentally, the import volume of upstream tin ore and its concentrates in November decreased by 56.5% year-on-year and 19.2% month on month. From this year’s domestic tin ingot production data, the suspension of tin mines in Myanmar has not yet affected the smelting end, but the supply of raw materials from the mining end is still relatively rigid, and the latest situation in the raw material market still needs to be closely monitored. In terms of inventory, the social inventory of tin ingots in China has once again declined, and the amount of destocking has exceeded expectations. Although tin prices have fallen rapidly this week, the current downward space is still limited.

Based on comprehensive analysis, tin inventory is currently at a relatively low level, and downstream standing inventory is not high. If tin prices fall significantly, inventory may continue to be stocked, and tin prices are expected to mainly fluctuate and consolidate.

This week (12.14-12.20), the nickel market experienced a downward expansion. According to the monitoring of nickel prices by Shengyi Society, as of December 20th, spot nickel was reported at 124608 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 4.62%.

Macroscopically, the Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point reduction in the target range of the federal funds rate to between 4.25% and 4.50%, and expects the rate cut to narrow to 50 basis points by 2025. The scheduled interest rate cut is in line with expectations, and the pace of interest rate cuts will be slowed down next year, causing the US dollar to rise to a two-year high and bearish on the metal market.

On the supply side: According to the World Bureau of Metal Statistics (WBMS) report, there is a cumulative surplus of 114100 tons of refined nickel in 2024. Shanghai nickel and London nickel inventories are under pressure, with a significant decrease in inventory during the week. As of December 20th, the inventory of Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts was 29227 tons, a decrease of 1337 tons during the week; The qualified quantity for delivery is 35390 tons, with an increase of 706 tons within the week. On December 20th, LME nickel inventory was 161436 tons, a decrease of 3072 tons during the week.

On the demand side: The stainless steel market continues to weaken, with low willingness to reduce production and high output. Downstream demand for low-priced goods is being replenished as needed, and the market trading atmosphere is sluggish. As of December 20th, the reference price for stainless steel in Shengyi Society was 13130 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.68% from the beginning of the month. The demand for electroplating and alloys remains stable.

Market forecast: Weak demand, inventory pressure, hindered upward movement of nickel prices, continued pattern of strong supply and weak demand, attention to macroeconomic policies, expected short-term fluctuations in nickel prices.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the average price of ammonium sulfate in the domestic market on December 19th was 823 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.23% compared to the average price of 813 yuan/ton on December 13th.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the price of ammonium sulfate in the domestic market has been steadily rising. The operating rate of coking enterprises remains stable, and the operating rate of domestic enterprises remains at a high level. This week, downstream enterprises made on-demand purchases, with an increase in inquiries compared to last week and an increase in market trading volume. The bidding price for coking grade ammonium sulfate has slightly increased, while the price for domestic grade ammonium sulfate has slightly increased. As of December 19th, the mainstream ex factory quotation for coking grade ammonium sulfate in Shandong region is around 765 yuan/ton. Domestic grade ammonium sulfate, the mainstream ex factory quotation in Shandong region is around 820-860 yuan/ton.

3、 Future forecast

An ammonium sulfate analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the ammonium sulfate market has been trending upwards recently. At present, the market trading direction is good, with a focus on low-priced restocking. Domestic and international demand still needs to be improved. It is expected that the domestic ammonium sulfate market will experience a narrow consolidation and operation in the short term.

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the market for locally refined petroleum coke continued to rise in December. As of December 17th, the price of locally refined petroleum coke in the Shandong market was 1673.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 8.62% from 1540.25 yuan/ton on December 1st.

Cost aspect: Recently, crude oil prices have risen overall, mainly due to the potential supply risks in the Middle East caused by the turmoil in Syria, coupled with improved economic and demand prospects in Asia.

Supply side: Recently, the shipment of refined petroleum coke has been active, and the inventory of petroleum coke is low. The market supply is relatively tight, and downstream companies have actively entered the market to push up the price of petroleum coke. In the near future, imported petroleum coke ports will gradually arrive. Currently, the price of imported petroleum coke continues to rise, the speed of port shipments is good, inventory is declining, and market inquiries are increasing.

On the demand side: Currently, the spot market for silicon metal is experiencing a downward trend. On the one hand, recently, the market for silicon metal futures has continuously fallen to market lows, intensifying the negative impact of futures on the spot market. On the other hand, with the arrival of winter, a situation of weak production and demand in the metal silicon market is gradually forming, and the overall operating rate of the metal silicon market continues to decline, resulting in a decrease in the expected production of metal silicon; The overall operating rate of the downstream polycrystalline silicon market remained unchanged compared to last week, but the monthly operating rate has decreased by about 25%. The operating rate of downstream enterprises has decreased, resulting in a decrease in demand for raw materials. Currently, there is a strong wait-and-see sentiment in the downstream market of silicon metal, with a lack of enthusiasm for new order purchases. The market is dominated by low-priced transactions, and the overall supply and demand transmission in the silicon metal market is weak. The demand for high sulfur pellet coke in the silicon carbide industry and the southern fuel market still exists, but some domestic refineries have stopped supplying petroleum coke to the silicon carbide market, and currently mainly purchase imported pellet coke.

Recently, the market for medium sulfur calcined coke has continued to rise with good transactions, mainly due to the continuous rise in the raw material petroleum coke market, as well as the slight reduction in production by some enterprises in Hebei due to environmental protection policies, resulting in a slight decrease in market supply.

Recently, the electrolytic aluminum market has fallen, and downstream customers for aluminum entered a low demand season in December. After the cancellation of export tax rebate policies, the operating rate of aluminum factories has declined, and the supply and demand in domestic and foreign markets have weakened. The aluminum market has also declined, with downstream aluminum using carbon as the main demand for petroleum coke market.

Market forecast: Currently, downstream negative electrode and carbon enterprises’ procurement of petroleum coke is still acceptable, which supports the market situation of petroleum coke. In addition, the current low inventory of local refineries is expected to lead to a narrow rise in petroleum coke prices in the near future.

This week, the overall price of melamine showed a stable trend, although there were slight fluctuations, there was no significant increase or decrease. As of December 17th, the benchmark price of melamine in Shengyi Society was 6405.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of -0.23% compared to the beginning of this month (6420.00 yuan/ton).

1、 Market situation

In the second half of 2024, the overall utilization rate of melamine production capacity was lower than that of the first half of the year, especially in mid October when the weekly production capacity rate of melamine fell to the low point of the second half of the year, which was the second low point of the year after the low point in mid July. Although there was a brief increase in capacity utilization due to the restoration of maintenance facilities, it subsequently declined again due to the shutdown and maintenance of some facilities.

2、 The impact of low capacity utilization on prices

1. Imbalance between supply and demand:

Low capacity utilization means insufficient production, but at the same time, due to sluggish downstream demand, this supply-demand imbalance has not led to price increases.

Especially in the sustained downturn of the real estate industry, downstream enterprises associated with it have low operating rates and overall insufficient demand, further exacerbating the supply-demand imbalance.

2. Intense market competition:

In the case of low capacity utilization, in order to maintain market share and sales revenue, enterprises may adopt a price reduction strategy to attract customers. This will lead to a further decline in market prices, making it difficult to recover.

3. Cost pressure:

Although low capacity utilization may reduce the allocation of fixed costs for enterprises, variable costs such as raw material costs and labor costs still exist. If companies are unable to cover these costs by raising prices, their profit margins will be further compressed.

3、 Prediction of Price Recovery Time

Due to the interweaving of various factors, it is difficult to accurately predict the rebound time of melamine prices. However, considerations can be made from the following aspects:

Improvement of supply-demand relationship: As downstream demand gradually recovers and new production capacity is effectively controlled, the supply-demand relationship will gradually become balanced, thereby driving up prices.

Rising raw material costs: If the price of raw material urea rises, it will increase the production cost of melamine, thereby providing support for market prices.

Increased export demand: With the recovery of the global economy and the increase in export demand, the export volume of melamine is expected to further increase, thereby driving up domestic prices.

4、 Future prospects

Fluctuations in raw material prices: There may still be some volatility in the future raw material urea market, which will have an impact on the production costs and prices of the melamine market. Enterprises need to closely monitor the dynamics of the raw material market and develop reasonable procurement and production plans.

Downstream demand changes: With the continuous development of the economy and the improvement of people’s living standards, the demand for melamine in downstream industries may show a new growth trend. Enterprises need to pay attention to changes in downstream demand and adjust their product structure and sales strategies in a timely manner.

Strengthening international cooperation: Enterprises should actively seek opportunities for international cooperation, expand overseas markets, and increase export volume. This can not only alleviate the supply and demand pressure in the domestic market, but also enhance the international visibility and brand influence of the enterprise.

In summary, low capacity utilization is one of the important factors currently restricting the recovery of melamine prices. In order to drive up prices and enhance the profitability of enterprises, they should closely monitor changes in downstream demand, optimize production capacity structure, and strengthen international cooperation.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the PET market price has slightly increased today. As of December 17th, its average market price is 6162 yuan per ton.

International oil prices have continued to rise, with strong cost support and a significant increase in polyester raw material prices. Driven by costs, today’s PET spot market prices have also risen. However, considering the approaching end of the month, some holders may face pressure to store and ship, which may limit the upward trend of PET.

Overall, the PET market prices may continue to fluctuate narrowly in the short term. The actual trend still needs to pay attention to the follow-up equipment, demand situation, and cost support under the traction of crude oil.

According to the analysis of the Business Society’s market monitoring system, on December 16th, the reference market price for domestic silicon metal # 441 was 11860 yuan/ton, a decrease of 210 yuan/ton or 1.74% compared to December 1st (market price of silicon metal # 441 was 12070 yuan/ton).

From the market monitoring system of Shengyi Society, it can be seen that in early December, the domestic spot market for silicon metal # 441 showed an overall weak downward trend, with market prices approaching low levels. Recently (12.13-12.16), the spot market for silicon metal continued to decline, with many regions in China including silicon metal grades # 553, 552, 441, 421, etc. experiencing a downward adjustment. Among them, the market price of silicon metal 553 # (oxygen) in East China decreased to 11300-11400 yuan/ton, with a price reduction of 100 yuan/ton. The market price of silicon metal 441 # in East China decreased to 11700-11900 yuan/ton, with a price reduction of 100 yuan/ton. The market price of silicon metal 421 # in Guangdong decreased to 11535-11585 yuan/ton, with a price reduction of 120 yuan/ton. As of December 16th, the domestic market price reference for metallic silicon 441 # is around 11500-12200 yuan/ton.

Recently, the spot market for silicon metal has been experiencing a downward trend. On the one hand, recently, the market for silicon metal futures has continuously fallen to market lows, intensifying the negative impact of futures on the spot market. On the other hand, as winter approaches, a weak supply-demand situation is gradually forming in the metal silicon market. On the supply side, the overall operating rate of the metal silicon market continues to decline, and the expected production of metal silicon is reduced. On the demand side, the overall operating rate of the downstream polycrystalline silicon market remained unchanged compared to last week, but the monthly operating rate decreased slightly by about 25%. The operating rate of downstream enterprises has decreased, resulting in a decrease in demand for raw materials. Currently, there is a strong wait-and-see sentiment in the downstream market of silicon metal, with a lack of enthusiasm for new order purchases. The market is dominated by low-priced transactions, and the overall supply and demand transmission in the silicon metal market is weak.

Market analysis in the future

At present, the overall trading atmosphere in the metal silicon market is relatively light, and the market continues to decline with strong market sentiment. The weak downstream demand affects the confidence of industry players. Although the market has lowered production, there is still some pressure to ship in some areas. The current market lacks positive support as a whole. The metal silicon data analyst from Shengyi Society believes that in the short term, the domestic metal silicon market is mainly weak and consolidating, and specific changes in supply and demand news need to be closely monitored.

Analysis: This week (12-9-12), the liquid ammonia market in Shandong has not yet escaped the downward channel, with prices fluctuating and falling. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the main production area of Shandong experienced a weekly decline of 1.32%. The main reason for the increase in supply pressure is that the maintenance equipment in the early stage has been gradually restored, and the operating rate of manufacturers has increased. Coupled with the sluggish urea market, some manufacturers have switched to ammonia, which has further exacerbated the contradiction of oversupply in the ammonia market. From the beginning of the week to the weekend, some mainstream large factories in Shandong generally lowered their prices by 50-100 yuan/ton. Distributors mainly underreport shipments. And downstream procurement enthusiasm is not high, agricultural demand is still in the off-season, industrial demand remains rigid, and the overall demand side is bearish. At present, the mainstream quotation in Shandong region is between 2600-2750 yuan/ton.

Prediction: Due to seasonal reasons, fertilizer procurement is off-season, downstream operating rates have significantly decreased, industrial demand has followed suit, supply is sufficient, and later supply pressure may not be resolved for a long time. But the imagination of regional differentiation in the later stage of the market may become increasingly prominent. On the one hand, the operating rate will decline with the decrease of prices. On the other hand, rainy and snowy weather in Northeast China, Inner Mongolia and other places may put pressure on transportation, and there may be a shortage of local supply. Considering all factors, the price of liquid ammonia may still be difficult to improve next week, but some regions may stop falling and stabilize. Local differentiation may bring about price fluctuations.