According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic PTA spot market in April showed a “V” trend of first falling and then rising. As of April 28th, the average price of PTA market in East China was 4567 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6.98% from the beginning of the month.
| Gamma-PGA (gamma polyglutamic acid) |
Looking at the future market, from April to June, there will be more PTA scheduled maintenance facilities, and spot circulation will gradually tighten. Among them, Jiatong Energy’s 2 million tons/year PTA facility and Hengli Huizhou’s 2 # 2.5 million tons/year facility were both scheduled for maintenance at the end of April, and the current industry operating rate is around 76%. In addition, in terms of new production capacity, Honggang Petrochemical’s 3 # 2.5 million ton unit is planned to be put into operation in mid June.
The international crude oil market experienced significant fluctuations in April due to the impact of tariff trade. At the beginning of the month, the escalation of trade frictions led to a significant drop in crude oil prices. However, in mid month, as market concerns about the new US tariffs eased, especially with the US showing a more relaxed attitude towards China in the trade war, international crude oil prices rose. As of April 25th, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $63.02 per barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was $66.87 per barrel.
The downstream polyester production load remains at a high level of 90%, maintaining a tight balance between supply and demand. Under the current atmosphere of easing tariffs, some downstream enterprises have slightly increased their replenishment, but trade frictions remain unstable, and negative feedback from terminal weaving is heating up. With the gradual introduction of tariffs, the order volume of textile fabrics has decreased, and the demand momentum is insufficient. The weaving operating rate in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions continues to decrease to around 60%. It is expected that some weaving operations will be suspended during the May Day holiday, and the operating rate will further decrease.
Business analysts believe that multiple PTA facilities in China have been gradually shut down, and the overall social inventory continues to be depleted. As the May Day holiday approaches and there are many uncertain factors in the external news, there is more cautious sentiment in the downstream market, and PTA prices lack sustained driving force due to weak demand. It is expected that PTA prices will continue to follow cost fluctuations in the short term, and attention can be paid to the trend of oil prices.
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