Affected by negative costs and weak downstream demand, the price of polyester filament market fell this week. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, on April 18th, the mainstream polyester filament factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang Province quoted POY (150D/48F) at 6300-6600 yuan/ton, polyester DTY (150D/48F low elasticity) at 7500-8000 yuan/ton, and polyester FDY (150D/96F) at 6500-6800 yuan/ton.
| Gamma-PGA (gamma polyglutamic acid) |
In terms of cost, the crude oil market is intertwined with bullish and bearish factors, and based on the subsequent impact of current US tariff policies, crude oil may enter a new cycle in the long run. The supply-demand balance will be disrupted, and in the process of rebalancing, crude oil prices will fluctuate and adjust in the short term. As of April 16th, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $62.47 per barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was $65.85 per barrel. Since April, the domestic PTA spot market has shown significant weakness, with an average market price of 4318 yuan/ton in East China as of April 17th, a decrease of 12.04% from the beginning of the month.
On the demand side, the production and sales rate of polyester filament market remained low this week, and the supply-demand contradiction intensified. Downstream users have a high demand for replenishment, with few actual transactions and continuous accumulation of inventory. The factory has a strong desire to reduce inventory. The utilization rate of polyester filament production capacity remains at a high level of 94%, but the downstream weaving operation rate is low, and the raw material stocking days have dropped to 10.8 days, resulting in a low purchasing willingness. The operating rate of weaving machines in Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces is 68% -70%, a decrease of 2-3 percentage points compared to the previous period. The inventory of raw fabrics has increased to 24.14 days, and the printing and dyeing start-up rate has dropped to 64.38%. The lack of new orders has led to a low purchasing willingness. In terms of exports, the US policy of imposing tariffs (such as the 301 investigation on textile categories) has led to a decrease in export orders, resulting in a 5.2% year-on-year decline in textile exports in April.
Overall, the polyester filament market is under triple pressure of declining costs, weak demand, and high inventory, resulting in a weak price decline. In the short term, the market lacks favorable drivers, and prices may continue to be weak. In the future, we need to focus on the trend of crude oil, the pace of terminal order recovery, and the differentiation strategy of enterprises. In the short term, there is limited room for price rebound, and Business Society believes that the polyester filament market will maintain a weak operation in the short term.
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