Nickel prices hit bottom and rebounded this week (4.7-4.14)

According to the monitoring of the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the US tariff policy is fermenting, and nickel prices have bottomed out. On April 9th, spot electrolytic nickel fell to a four-year low of 120875 yuan/ton. Subsequently, due to policy disturbances in Indonesia, the decline stopped and rebounded. On April 14th, spot electrolytic nickel was reported at 124650 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 1.6%.

Macro level: Policy disturbances dominate short-term sentiment
The US tariff policy has triggered expectations of a market economic recession, putting pressure on the prices of base metals. With the announcement of the suspension of tariffs by the United States, this measure has significantly improved the sentiment of the foreign market. Indonesia is about to implement a policy of increasing franchise fees, and the market is concerned about the rising cost of nickel mining, supporting a rebound in nickel prices.
Inventory differentiation: persistent oversupply phenomenon
On April 14th, domestic Shanghai nickel inventory was 25647 tons, a decrease of 1519 tons during the week, reflecting the easing of short-term spot pressure;
On April 14th, overseas LME nickel inventory was 204372 tons, an increase of 2064 tons during the week, and the global oversupply pattern has not changed.
Demand side: Low demand for stainless steel, weakened support for new energy
The stainless steel market is sluggish. On April 11th, the reference price of stainless steel was 13430.00, a decrease of 2.54% compared to April 1st (13780.00), mainly due to terminal rigid demand procurement and strong market wait-and-see sentiment. The profits of steel mills are under pressure, and some enterprises are reducing production, which is suppressing the demand for nickel.
The demand for nickel in ternary batteries has decreased. From January to March, the cumulative installed capacity of ternary batteries in China was 25.0GWh, a year-on-year decrease of 19.0%, accounting for 19.2% of the total installed capacity. The substitution effect of lithium iron phosphate batteries is enhanced, weakening the expected growth in nickel demand.
Market forecast: The impact of Indonesian policies will continue, and in the short term, there will be a strong consolidation trend. However, the high inventory and weak demand have limited the upward potential of nickel prices.