New production capacity released, acrylonitrile market deadlocked and wait-and-see

Market summary: This week, the domestic acrylonitrile spot market price has slightly fallen, and new production capacity is gradually being released. The positive support of reduced supply in the East China region is gradually weakening. As of April 10th, the mainstream negotiation for container self pickup in East China ports is around 9100-9300 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton from the low-end of last week. Short distance delivery in Shandong market is around 8900-9100 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton from last week.

In terms of supply, factories in the East China region have basically implemented load reduction or maintenance, and there is little change in supply in the short term. The overall supply of acrylonitrile market is abundant. In addition, there are still variables in the later supply changes. According to statistics, as of April 10th, the average capacity utilization rate of the domestic acrylonitrile industry was 79.94%, a decrease of 0.19% compared to the same period last week.
Inventory decline: Industry inventory remains controllable. According to statistics, as of April 10th, the inventory of domestic acrylonitrile factories was 48000 tons, unchanged from last week.
Weakened demand: Downstream demand may experience a phased weakening trend, with expectations of reduced load in acrylic fiber factories. The utilization rate of ABS production capacity in another downstream major industry is 67.95%, a decrease of 0.65% from last week, and raw materials are purchased on demand. In addition, due to macroeconomic factors, overall demand has decreased.
Market forecast: Currently, the price of acrylonitrile in the domestic market is slightly softer, with overall supply abundant and new production capacity gradually being released. At the same time, downstream demand may weaken in stages, coupled with the impact of tariff policies on upstream and downstream varieties and terminal consumption. The market as a whole is mainly on a wait-and-see basis.