price trend
According to the bulk ranking data from Shengyi Society, the domestic PC market remained strong in early April, with some spot prices of certain brands fluctuating. As of April 8th, the mixed benchmark price of Business Society PC is around 15733.33 yuan/ton, with a price increase or decrease of+0.21% compared to the end of March.
cause analysis
On the supply side: In April, the load of domestic PC aggregation enterprises basically flattened, and the current industry average operating level is close to 84%. In recent weeks, the average weekly production has remained above 60000 tons, still at a super high level, and the on-site supply is very abundant. The mid stream inventory position is relatively high, and there is pressure on manufacturers to ship. However, some companies in the future have maintenance tasks, and there is an expectation of reduced supply, resulting in a strong trend of factory pricing. The market supply side is generally supportive of PC prices.
In terms of raw materials, it can be seen from the above chart that the price of bisphenol A increased in early April. Affected by the recent low point in the industry, some regions are experiencing tight supply, supporting the upward trend of spot prices. At the beginning of the month, both acetone and phenol experienced an increase in temperature, with a tendency towards bullish guidance within the market. However, recently, the prices of upstream crude oil in the far end have been hit by US tariffs, and both upstream and downstream materials have started to decline, which has dealt a blow to the confidence of industry players in the future. However, the downstream consumption documents of bisphenol A still have some price flexibility. Overall, the support of raw materials for PC costs has rebounded.
In terms of demand: In early April, the PC consumption pattern shifted from long-term weakness to rigid demand pattern, and new orders in the market basically returned to the same period in previous years. Downstream factories are returning to normal load and stocking up as scheduled. Be cautious in purchasing logic. However, due to the long-term weak market dynamics in the industry, high social inventory, and abundant on-site sources of goods, the supply-demand imbalance tends towards destocking. Merchants tend to have a wait-and-see attitude towards low positions, and buyers are resistant to high priced goods. The circulation of goods on site is average, and the demand side is constrained in supporting PC spot prices.
Future forecast
In early April, the domestic PC market experienced volatility. The upstream bisphenol A market is currently on the rise, providing increased support for PC costs. The load of domestic PC aggregation plants has flattened, and there is an expectation of supply contraction. At present, downstream demand follows the logic of rigid demand, and market trading has slightly recovered. The market is about to enter the peak season for maintenance, which may stimulate some new orders to enter the market. However, due to the impact of US tariff policies and fluctuations in crude oil prices, concerns about the future have increased among industry players. At the same time, the industry’s inventory is high, and there is great pressure for sellers to sell their products. Therefore, it is expected that the PC market will continue to be light and stable in the short term. It is recommended to closely monitor relevant news on the foreign trade environment.
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