According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic polyester staple fiber market has maintained a fluctuating downward trend since March. As of March 12th, the average market price of domestic polyester staple fiber (1.4D * 38mm) was 6784 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.57% from the beginning of the month. The average ex factory price of mainstream factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions is 6968 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.22% from the beginning of the month.
| Gamma-PGA (gamma polyglutamic acid) |
The raw material market, the negative economic outlook of the US tariff policy, and the escalation of trade frictions have led to a larger than expected increase in US crude oil inventories. Investors are concerned that OPEC+will decide to increase production starting in April, causing a weak adjustment in international crude oil prices. As of March 11th, the settlement price of the main contract for US WTI crude oil futures was $66.25 per barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was $69.56 per barrel. Attention should be paid to the destocking of US crude oil and the disturbance of the situation in the Middle East.
In the PTA market, spot processing fees continued to weaken by the end of 2024 and remained at a low level around 300 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year. The profit gap of the enterprise has led to an increase in maintenance enthusiasm. There were many PTA plant maintenance in March, and as of March 11th, the industry’s operating rate was at a one-year low of 77%. According to statistics, the domestic PTA production capacity for maintenance and planned maintenance in March was 10.15 million tons. However, due to weakened costs and insufficient demand, the average PTA market price in East China was 4748 yuan/ton as of March 12th, a decrease of 4.41% from the beginning of the month.
On the supply and demand side, some polyester staple fiber facilities are planned to restart, with an expected increase in supply, and the industry may experience an increase in production. The terminal weaving production has also increased, with the spinning industry’s production rising to 79%. However, there is a lack of enthusiasm for purchasing polyester staple fibers and cautious stocking. At present, the factory indicates that the issuance of new orders is still slow and lacks confidence in the future market. The space for further increase in weaving end elasticity and weaving start-up rate is limited. Currently, the weaving start-up rate in Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions is around 67%, and insufficient orders may lead to a subsequent decline in start-up rate.
Analysts from Shengyi Society believe that weak demand will maintain basic needs, coupled with weak costs driving the price of polyester staple fibers to a bearish trend. It is expected that the price of polyester staple fibers will continue to decline.
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