According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic natural rubber spot market has slightly declined recently (3.3-3.11). As of March 11th, the spot rubber market in China’s natural rubber market was around 16709 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.74% from 17180 yuan/ton on the 3rd. The high prices of raw materials have fallen back; Domestic Tianjiao Port inventory has slightly increased; After the holiday, downstream production gradually increased, coupled with strong fluctuations in the Shanghai rubber market, which led to a slight upward trend in the natural rubber spot market.
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At present, foreign natural rubber supply will gradually enter an increasing production period from a low production period. The Yunnan production area in China will be the first to enter a trial cutting period, while production areas such as Hainan, Vietnam, and northeastern Thailand in China will still stop cutting. Currently, natural rubber raw material prices are consolidating at a high level, and it is expected that they may decline in the future. As of March 11th, the price of Thai glue was 67.50 baht/kg, slightly lower than 70.00 baht/kg at the beginning of the month.
Natural rubber inventory continues to increase slightly, but overall it remains at a high level. As of March 2, 2025, the total inventory of Tianjiao bonded and general trade in Qingdao area was 584400 tons, an increase of 8800 tons or 1.53% compared to the previous period.
Supply and demand side: The slight increase in downstream tire production mainly supports the demand for natural rubber in the market. As of March 7th, the operating load of semi steel tires in domestic tire enterprises was around 8.2%; The construction of all steel tires by tire enterprises in Shandong region has slightly increased to around 6.9% of the load.
Market forecast: When domestic and international raw material prices stabilize at a high level, but in the later stage, with the opening of some regions at home and abroad, the price of natural rubber raw materials may continue to fall. The downstream construction is gradually increasing, which provides some essential support for the demand for natural rubber, but the inventory of Tianjiao Port continues to grow slightly; Overall, it is expected that the natural rubber market will weaken and consolidate in the short term.
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