This week (3.1-3.7), the macro sentiment is positive, supported by rising costs, and the nickel market is moving up. According to the monitoring of nickel prices by Shengyi Society, as of March 7th, spot nickel was reported at 130658 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 2.71% and an annual decrease of 3.85%.
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Macro: China’s official manufacturing PMI for February was 50.2, returning to the expansion range. The domestic two sessions boost market confidence. The domestic economic target is to achieve a GDP growth rate of around 5% by 2025, a CPI increase of around 2%, and a deficit rate of around 4%. Overseas, the US ISM Services PMI for February was 53.5, higher than expected. However, the ADP employment figure of 77000 was lower than expected. Against the backdrop of escalating trade conflicts following US President Trump’s imposition of new tariffs, the US dollar has weakened.
Supply side: In March 2025, the benchmark price for domestic trade of Indonesian nickel ore was 15306.52 US dollars per wet ton, an increase of about 0.2%, highlighting the cost support of price rebound.
Inventory: Domestic inventory reduction growth rate, but the pattern of nickel surplus continues. On March 7th, the inventory of Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts was 26682 tons, a decrease of 989 tons during the week; The trend of LME nickel inventory accumulation has not stopped. On March 7th, LME nickel inventory was 198522 tons, an increase of 3558 tons during the week.
Demand side: Stainless steel still maintains a low price, high production, and high inventory pattern, the real estate market is sluggish, and consumption is still trying to recover. After March, there may be positive changes on the demand side, such as a rebound in demand in industries such as construction and home appliances, and inventory pressure is expected to be alleviated. On March 7th, the benchmark price of stainless steel plates in Shengyi Society was 12271.43 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.59% from the beginning of the month. The market share of ternary batteries is expected to further weaken.
Market forecast: Macro sentiment is boosted, demand slightly improves, short-term supply-demand contradiction is suppressed, and it is expected that nickel prices will fluctuate within the range.
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