1、 Trend analysis
According to monitoring data from Shengyi Society, copper prices first rose and then fluctuated at a high level in February. As of the end of the month, the copper price at the beginning of the month was 75233.33 yuan/ton. At the end of the month, the copper price rose to 76960 yuan/ton, with an overall increase of 2.3% and a year-on-year increase of 10.97%.
According to the Business Society’s current chart, in early February, copper spot prices were mostly higher than futures prices, and the main prices were higher than spot prices in mid to late February. The main contract is the expected price two months later, and it is expected that the price will rise in the future.
According to LME inventory, LME copper inventory first fell and then rose in February. As of the end of the month, LME copper inventory was 267225 tons, up 4.74% from the beginning of the month.
Macroscopically, the January Federal Reserve interest rate meeting announced that the target range for the federal funds rate would remain unchanged at 4.25% to 4.5%, in line with market expectations.
On February 1st Eastern Time, the Trump administration announced a 10% tariff on imported goods from China. On February 10th local time, US President Trump signed an executive order announcing a 25% tariff on all steel and aluminum imports to the United States, stating that there are “no exceptions or exemptions” to the relevant requirements. In addition, in mid February, Trump announced that he would impose equivalent tariffs on US trading partners, but did not specify when the tariffs would be imposed.
On February 1st Eastern Time, the Trump administration announced a 10% tariff on imported goods from China. On February 10th local time, US President Trump signed an executive order announcing a 25% tariff on all steel and aluminum imports to the United States, stating that there are “no exceptions or exemptions” to the relevant requirements. In addition, in mid February, Trump announced that he would impose equivalent tariffs on US trading partners, but did not specify when the tariffs would be imposed.
On the supply side, the overall operation of overseas mines in February was stable, and there were no significant supply disruptions. The processing fee for imported copper concentrate has been in the negative range for a consecutive month, and the decline in TC has further expanded, indicating a tight supply of copper concentrate. It is expected that three smelters in China will have maintenance plans in March, which will expand the maintenance efforts compared to February.
Downstream: After the Chinese New Year holiday, cable companies have gradually resumed work and production, and the operating rate of copper cable companies has rebounded.
In January 2025, the production of household air conditioners in China decreased by 4.2% year-on-year to 16.672 million units, while the total sales increased by 8.7% year-on-year to 17.734 million units; During the same period, the export volume of household air conditioners increased by 17.0% year-on-year to 10.521 million units, becoming the main driving force for market growth.
According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, automobile production in January decreased by 2.2% year-on-year to 2.45 million vehicles; During the same period, the production of new energy vehicles increased by 29% year-on-year to 1.015 million units.
According to the annual price comparison chart of Shengyi Society, in the past five years, copper prices have mostly risen in February.
In summary, the overall supply of ore remains tight. In terms of demand, with the traditional peak season approaching, the air conditioning industry is the most active, and the cable and automotive industries will see a seasonal rebound in demand in March. However, against the backdrop of a volatile macro environment, the Trump administration is planning to impose tariffs on aluminum and copper, which poses obstacles to economic growth and demand, coupled with the continued accumulation of copper inventories. It is expected that copper prices will experience strong fluctuations in March.
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