Market Overview: This week, the domestic acrylonitrile market has continued to decline, with the decline widening. The supply is gradually increasing, while domestic demand and exports remain slow overall, highlighting the supply-demand contradiction once again. As of February 21st, the mainstream negotiation for container self pickup in East China ports is around 10300-10600 yuan/ton, and the negotiation for short distance delivery in Shandong market is around 10200-10500 yuan/ton.
| Gamma-PGA (gamma polyglutamic acid) |
Supply growth: Except for Lihua Yi continuing maintenance, all other devices maintain high load production, and the industry’s capacity utilization rate gradually increases to around 80%. The overall supply is abundant, and the scheduled maintenance of Silbang this month has been delayed. The overall operating load has increased from around 60% to over 70%; Zhejiang Petrochemical is also operating steadily at around 90%; As of February 20th, the average capacity utilization rate of the domestic acrylonitrile industry has risen to 79.94%, an increase of 3.47% compared to the same period last week, with a weekly output of about 73900 tons. It is expected that by the end of February or early March, the industry capacity utilization rate will increase to over 85%, and the supply of acrylonitrile will significantly increase.
Inventory increase: According to statistics, as of February 19th, the inventory of domestic acrylonitrile factories was around 42500 tons, an increase of 0.52 million tons from last week, indicating a significant increase in inventory.
Flat demand: While acrylonitrile supply is gradually recovering, overall downstream consumption is showing weak performance, especially in the small and medium-sized downstream sectors where resumption of work is slower than in previous years. On the one hand, there is insufficient follow-up of terminal consumption, and on the other hand, after the high price of acrylonitrile, the main downstream industries such as acrylic fiber and acrylamide are facing losses, which affects their operating pace, especially the acrylic fiber industry, whose operating load has dropped to less than 50% after the holiday.
Cost wise: The rise in international oil prices this week is positive for market sentiment. The company’s shipments are smooth, inventory remains low, and the propylene market prices are stable with a moderate to strong trend. As of February 21st, the market price of propylene in Shandong is 6780-6880 yuan/ton, with average cost support.
Market forecast: Overall, the supply and demand relationship in the acrylonitrile market has changed. In the short term, the news shows that the supply is gradually increasing, and bearish sentiment will also lead to a continuous decline in spot market prices. However, there are still certain variables regarding whether the supply in March can be fully delivered as scheduled, and the uncertainty of expectations may to some extent suppress the downward trend of acrylonitrile.
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