In January 2025, the market price of acrylonitrile will significantly increase. The price surged sharply in the first week of the month, and there are currently few market quotes, only sporadic merchants offering high prices. The manufacturer has tightened spot sales. The rapid increase in prices this time is a rare occurrence in recent years, which has led some market participants to believe that the market situation has returned to the past.
There are several reasons for the price increase this time. Supply is tight, and a acrylonitrile production line has been shut down for maintenance due to a malfunction, resulting in an overall operating rate of 50%. The market supply has decreased, and prices in Shandong have increased one after another. In terms of the East China market, the restart of Zhejiang Petrochemical has been delayed, and Sinopec East China has had to purchase spot acrylonitrile to fill the gap, thereby reducing market inventory.
Northbound goods are moving southward, and acrylonitrile is supplemented by the northern market in the eastern and southern markets, resulting in a corresponding increase in prices in the relatively low Shandong market. As a result, both Haijiang and Korur in Shandong have reduced their spot supply, leading to price increases. At the same time, some manufacturers have adjusted their pre-sale pricing systems, improved price flexibility, and paved the way for gradual price increases.
In addition, transportation delays in overseas markets and suppliers in neighboring regions have reduced the supply of imported goods, making it difficult to meet downstream demand in the domestic market. In addition, the delayed restart of ZRCC company has led to an increase in market expectations.
In terms of demand, some December equipment maintenance manufacturers restarted in January, and the sharp rise in raw material prices has put acrylic fiber manufacturers in a difficult situation, facing the contradiction between losses and replenishing inventory. In addition, with the shutdown of downstream yarn mills, the demand for acrylic fiber is approaching zero. In 2025, the government announced the continuation of the subsidy program for car and home appliances trade in, which will stimulate the production willingness of ABS market manufacturers and increase their enthusiasm for stocking up.
Overall, the price increase this time is driven by various supply and demand factors, but it is still uncertain whether its upward trend can continue. The increase in capacity utilization driven by profit recovery may limit further price increases.
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