The average price of domestic magnesium ingots in 2024 was 20600 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year and 16266 yuan/ton at the end of the year, with an annual decline of 21.04%. The highest point of the year was 20633 yuan/ton on January 19th, and the lowest point of the year was 16000 yuan/ton at the end of December, with an average annual price of 18344 yuan/ton. The trend of the magnesium ingot market in 2024 can be divided into three stages: a significant downward adjustment at the beginning of the year, a slight upward rebound in stable prices in the middle of the year, and a continued downward dip at the end of the year.
| Gamma-PGA (gamma polyglutamic acid) |
K-bar chart of commodity prices, using the concept of price trend K-line, in the form of a bar chart, reflects the weekly or monthly price changes. Investors can make buying and selling investments based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-pillar represents the range of rise and fall. From the above chart, it can be seen that the magnesium ingot market rose for three months and fell for nine months in 2024. The largest monthly increase occurred in April, with a rise of 3.7%. The largest monthly decline occurred in March, with a drop of 6.88%.
The comparison chart of the annual trend of magnesium ingots from 2022 to 2024 shows that the market price of magnesium ingots is currently at its lowest level in recent years.
Analysis of Quarterly Price Trends in 2024:
first quarter
Starting from January 2024, magnesium prices have shown slight fluctuations. The manufacturer’s production is stable and the market supply is sufficient, but due to the approaching Spring Festival and the tense situation in the Red Sea, some export orders have been delayed, resulting in weakened demand and price reductions. Subsequently, the losses in the Lantan industry intensified, and some magnesium factories faced cost inversion pressure. However, downstream users stocking up in large quantities has reduced the inventory pressure of magnesium plants, and prices have slightly increased at one point. After the Spring Festival, with the completion of most downstream stocking, magnesium prices fell again, with this decline being the largest annual drop, and then magnesium prices stabilized. The mainstream price of magnesium metal in Fugu area has dropped to 17300-17500 yuan/ton, and market demand still needs to be boosted.
Second quarter
In mid March, magnesium prices rose for the first time after the Spring Festival, and market confidence slightly recovered. However, insufficient demand led to a further decline in magnesium prices, followed by a bottoming out and rebound. Due to severe losses, some manufacturers in Shaanxi, Inner Mongolia and other places have stopped production, resulting in reduced market supply and stimulating downstream demand. Magnesium prices have remained stable and risen to 18600-18800 yuan/ton. At the end of April, downstream users finished stocking up, demand weakened, and magnesium prices fell back to 18000-18100 yuan/ton. After the May Day holiday, downstream low-priced restocking led to a slight increase in magnesium prices. Subsequently, raw material prices rose, but downstream demand was limited, resulting in slight fluctuations in magnesium prices. At the end of May, the price of silicon iron raw materials rose significantly, driving up the price of magnesium.
Third quarter
Since June, downstream demand has been insufficient, raw material prices have decreased, shipping costs have risen, and external orders have decreased, resulting in a downward pressure on magnesium prices. Although there was an increase in sales volume during the second half of the year due to low prices and price recovery, there was weak demand follow-up, resulting in a further decline in magnesium prices. In early July, magnesium prices slightly increased. At the end of the month, due to some manufacturers resuming production and the market being cautious, transactions were limited, and magnesium prices fell again. The mainstream price in Fugu area dropped to 17600-17700 yuan/ton. From late July to early August, some manufacturers stopped production for maintenance, downstream procurement increased, and magnesium prices rose temporarily to 17900-18000 yuan/ton due to cost support. In mid August, downstream fear of high sentiment intensified, market inquiries decreased, transactions were light, and magnesium prices quickly fell to 17500-17600 yuan/ton.
Fourth quarter
At the end of August and the beginning of September, magnesium prices rose rapidly. In order to maintain market stability, manufacturers raised their prices uniformly, pushing up mainstream prices in the Fugu area. However, downstream demand is weak, shipping costs have been lowered, foreign procurement is scattered, and manufacturers’ shipments are not smooth. The actual transaction price has dropped to 17600-17700 yuan/ton. After the National Day holiday, magnesium prices rose due to market transactions during the holiday period and a slight increase in raw material prices after the holiday. Since mid October, downstream demand has been insufficient, market transactions have decreased, and magnesium prices have continued to fall to 16500 yuan/ton. Although there are favorable policies, it is difficult for demand to increase significantly, and there is no significant change in the supply side. Until the end of the year, the situation of oversupply continued, and magnesium prices fell to around 16000 yuan/ton. The lowest price in recent years.
Magnesium price forecast for 2025:
Raw material end:
In terms of the ferrosilicon market, it is expected that its price will fluctuate within the range of 6000 to 7500 yuan by 2025. The production commencement situation will be mainly affected by the adjustment of profit levels. Therefore, we need to continuously monitor the investment in new production capacity. If there is a lack of macro favorable policies, environmental protection measures for the industry itself, and dual control of energy consumption, it will be difficult for the price of ferrosilicon to achieve significant fluctuations.
Supply and demand side:
The magnesium market is currently facing the problem of weak downstream demand, and prices have mostly remained relatively low. As a result, some manufacturers have carried out routine maintenance operations due to losses. At present, the rotating maintenance of most manufacturers has been basically completed, and the production operation is stable. As the market gradually enters the peak demand season, if there are no other unexpected factors to interfere, the supply of magnesium metal market may increase slightly, and the overall market supply will show a sufficient trend. In the absence of other relevant policy influences, it is expected that the supply of magnesium metal market will remain overall stable by 2025. From the perspective of demand, there will not be a significant change in the downstream demand pattern. Some downstream enterprises in foreign countries have stopped production, resulting in weakened demand and continued weakness on the demand side.
Overall, the supply and demand sides in the magnesium market are in a game with each other. It is highly likely that the magnesium metal market will remain stable by 2025, with a slight rebound in magnesium prices before turning into a narrow range oscillation trend.
| http://www.lubonchem.com/ |