According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from January 13th to 17th, MTBE prices fell from 6562 yuan/ton to 5862 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 10.67% during the period, a month on month increase of 5.73%, and a year-on-year decrease of 8.22%. In the early stage, favorable factors such as the rise in crude oil prices and gasoline prices supported a wide upward trend, but there were many speculative factors involved in the price increase. Subsequently, the market returned to rationality, and the domestic MTBE market price fluctuated and fell, with a significant downward trend.
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On the cost side, in terms of crude oil: International oil prices have risen, mainly due to favorable factors such as the US Treasury Department announcing new sanctions against Russia, market concerns about increased supply risks, and continued severe cold weather in some parts of the US and Europe, boosting fuel consumption demand. US commercial crude oil inventories have been declining for eight consecutive weeks. As of January 16th, the settlement price of the main Brent crude oil futures contract was $81.29 per barrel.
On the demand side, international crude oil futures have fluctuated upwards, and the market has been active in recent times under the stimulation of positive news. Refineries have raised their prices one after another, and some mid to downstream merchants have made moderate purchases under the buying sentiment. The market buying and selling atmosphere has heated up. Short term MTBE demand is influenced by favorable factors.
Supply side: Short term production may increase. Short term domestic MTBE supply is affected by bearish factors.
As of the close on January 16th, the closing price of the Asian MTBE market has increased by $6.06/ton compared to the previous trading day, with FOB Singapore closing at $760.36-762.36/ton. The closing price of the European MTBE market decreased by $4.75/ton compared to the previous trading day, and FOB ARA closed at $888.74-889.24/ton. The closing price of the MTBE market in the United States decreased by $5.56/ton compared to the previous trading day, and the FOB Gulf offshore price closed at $797.11-797.46/ton (225.07-225.17 cents/gallon).
The forecast for the future market is that terminal inventory will be moderately replenished before the holiday, but manufacturers also face pressure to reduce inventory. MTBE analysts from Shengyi Society believe that the domestic MTBE market is mainly experiencing slight fluctuations.
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